Estimations of generic drug entry in Brazil using count ... - EPGE/FGV

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[23] Rudholm, N (2005) “Entry and the Number of Firms in the Swedish PharmaceuticalsMarket ”Review of Industrial Organization, Vol. 19, pp. 351-364.[24] Scott-Morton, F. (1999) “Entry Decisions in the Generic Pharmaceutical Industry”.Rand Journal of Economics, Vol. 30, pp. 421-440.[25] Scott-Morton, F. (2000) “Barriers to Entry, Brand Advertising, and Generic Entry inthe U.S. Pharmaceutical Industry”International Journal of Industrial Organization,Vol. 18, pp. 1085-1104.[26] Thomas, L.G., III (1996) – "Industrial Policy and International Competitivenessin the Pharmaceutical Industry". In: Helms, R. (ed.) Competitive Strategies in thePharmaceutical Industry. Washington (DC): AEI Press.26
TABLE 1Generic Drug Market Share in Selected CountriesCountry % in Revenue % in VolumeUSA 13 60Germany 26 60United Kingdom 26 60Canada 22 45France 14 35Spain 13 30Brazil 13.8 16.9Source: Pro-Genérico.FIGURE 1Evolution of generic drug registrationsNumber of generic drug registrations,by route of administration300270250240214200173164181169150127 131100500849091 918460473745 45 4820 222832 35221922 2022000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Injectables Orals TopicalsSource: Anvisa/NUREM (last update Feb 25, 2009).TABLE 2Evolution of generic drug presence in Brazilian market2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007APIs 68 140 203 220 243 271 282 263Firms 11 25 31 33 36 37 40 37Drugs 118 295 503 619 818 1,040 1,169 1,099Package versions 135 490 594 1,029 1,611 2,069 2,385 2,245Source: ANVISA/NUREM.27
Page 1 and 2: Estimations of generic drug entry i
Page 3 and 4: percent below 1997 level, but twent
Page 5 and 6: doctors had reason to concern that
Page 7 and 8: companies tried to switch patients
Page 9 and 10: Scott-Morton [24] used individual d
Page 11 and 12: of entries, but the longer the excl
Page 13 and 14: model families. We then discuss the
Page 15 and 16: such that i follows a Gamma distri
Page 17 and 18: Pr [y i = j] = Pr ( j 1 < yi j )
Page 19 and 20: drugs where generic entry occurred
Page 21 and 22: Ordered multinomial models display
Page 23 and 24: 3. the lagged HHI market concentrat
Page 25: [12] Fiuza, E.P.S. & Lisboa, M.B. (
Page 29 and 30: FIGURE 2Distribution of Accumulated
Page 31 and 32: TABLE 5 (Continued)POISSON NB2 NB1
Page 33 and 34: TABLE 7Marginal Effects of Ordered
Page 35 and 36: TABLE 8-BPRM: Predicted and actual
Page 37 and 38: FIGURE 3Deviations in Observed vs.
Page 39: FIGURE 5Sources of zeros in the ZIN

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