Estimations of generic drug entry in Brazil using count ... - EPGE/FGV

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TABLE 8Compar<strong>in</strong>g Information Criteria among the Four Major Count ModelsPRM BIC=-54062.637 AIC= 1.192 Prefer Over EvidenceBIC=-54991.178 dif= 928.542 NBRM PRM Very strongvs NB2 AIC= 1.059 dif= 0.132 NBRM PRMLRX2= 937.405 prob= 0.000 NBRM PRM p=0.000BIC=-55322.411 dif= 1259.774 ZIP PRM Very strongvs ZIP AIC= 1.010 dif= 0.182 ZIP PRMVuong= 13.199 prob= 0.000 ZIP PRM p=0.000BIC=-55575.895 dif= 1513.259 ZINB PRM Very strongvs ZINBAIC= 0.973 dif= 0.219 ZINB PRMNB2 BIC=-54991.178 AIC= 1.059 Prefer Over EvidenceBIC=-55322.411 dif= 331.232 ZIP NBRM Very strongvs ZIPAIC= 1.010 dif= 0.050 ZIP NBRMBIC=-55575.895 dif= 584.717 ZINB NBRM Very strongvs ZINB AIC= 0.973 dif= 0.087 ZINB NBRMVuong= 12.223 prob= 0.000 ZINB NBRM p=0.000ZIP BIC=-55322.411 AIC= 1.010 Prefer Over EvidenceBIC=-55575.895 dif= 253.484 ZINB ZIP Very strongvs ZINB AIC= 0.973 dif= 0.037 ZINB ZIPLRX2= 262.348 prob= 0.000 ZINB ZIP p=0.000TABLE 8-AComparison <strong>of</strong> Mean Observed and Predicted CountModelMaximumDifferenceAtValueMean|Diff"PRM -0.071 1 0.01NB2 -0.015 1 0.003ZIP 0.015 0 0.003ZINB 0.003 4 0.00134
TABLE 8-BPRM: Predicted and actual probabilitiesActual Predicted |Diff| Pearson0 0.853 0.801 0.052 23.4761 0.079 0.150 0.071 238.3102 0.036 0.030 0.006 7.2243 0.013 0.009 0.004 11.0674 0.011 0.004 0.007 78.0805 0.003 0.002 0.001 1.2096 0.003 0.001 0.002 21.0027 0.001 0.001 0.000 1.4188 0.001 0.000 0.001 6.3319 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.26810 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.10111 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.17312 0.000 0.000 0.000 5.08213 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.164Sum 1.000 1.000 0.143 396.907TABLE 8-CNB2: Predicted and actual probabilitiesActual Predicted |Diff| Pearson0 0.853 0.853 0.000 0.0011 0.079 0.094 0.015 17.2552 0.036 0.024 0.012 40.0943 0.013 0.009 0.004 9.2684 0.011 0.005 0.006 48.3615 0.003 0.003 0.000 0.1466 0.003 0.002 0.001 4.6447 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.4198 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0229 0.000 0.001 0.001 5.92110 0.000 0.001 0.000 1.58211 0.000 0.001 0.001 3.86712 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.01313 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.067Sum 1.000 0.996 0.040 132.66035
Page 1 and 2: Estimations of generic drug entry i
Page 3 and 4: percent below 1997 level, but twent
Page 5 and 6: doctors had reason to concern that
Page 7 and 8: companies tried to switch patients
Page 9 and 10: Scott-Morton [24] used individual d
Page 11 and 12: of entries, but the longer the excl
Page 13 and 14: model families. We then discuss the
Page 15 and 16: such that i follows a Gamma distri
Page 17 and 18: Pr [y i = j] = Pr ( j 1 < yi j )
Page 19 and 20: drugs where generic entry occurred
Page 21 and 22: Ordered multinomial models display
Page 23 and 24: 3. the lagged HHI market concentrat
Page 25 and 26: [12] Fiuza, E.P.S. & Lisboa, M.B. (
Page 27 and 28: TABLE 1Generic Drug Market Share in
Page 29 and 30: FIGURE 2Distribution of Accumulated
Page 31 and 32: TABLE 5 (Continued)POISSON NB2 NB1
Page 33: TABLE 7Marginal Effects of Ordered
Page 37 and 38: FIGURE 3Deviations in Observed vs.
Page 39: FIGURE 5Sources of zeros in the ZIN

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