Brazilian Biofuels Programmes from the WEL Nexus Perspective

Brazil’s biofuel programmes viewed from the WEL-nexus perspectiveirrigation technology installed in 2010 (IBGE, 2009). Agricultural areas in the states of SP andMT are served by the Paraná hydrographic basin, and in the case of MT, mainly by the Amazonbasin. The Paraná River basin concentrates the largest irrigated area per hydrographic region,with 1.48 million ha (ANA, 2011).The adoption of irrigation systems in these two states has been increasing, especially in the1996–2010 period. In SP, there was a 7.5% annual rate of increase in the area covered byirrigation, and 15.1% in MT. In SP, about 1 million ha, or 15% of the agricultural area, isirrigated. In the case of MT, this area amounts to 238,000 ha, which corresponds to 12% ofthe cultivated area (IBGE, 1999, 2009, 2011).The purpose of installing irrigation equipment is to ensure a regular supply of water in order toavoid a drop in productivity due to unequal water distribution. It is not just a matter ofsupplying water during dry periods, but also supplying it in adequate amounts to avoid waterstress (Carmo et al., 2007). Telles (1999) addresses the importance of proper irrigationmanagement, as the water used in the agricultural sector does not return to its sources, orreturns to such sources affected by pesticide contamination.In this context, the demand for water per hectare of sugar cane and soybean produced in thestates of SP and MT respectively in 2010 was modelled using CROPWAT 8.0 software. Thissoftware, developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), is used toquantify the demand for water and for irrigation per agricultural crop, based on soil andclimate conditions, and the crop productivity record in the region under study (FAO, 2011a,2011b). Thus, in view of the conditions mentioned for SP and MT, which were obtained fromCONAB (2011), EMBRAPA (2008) and FAO (2011b) for 2010, an average demand of 16,991 m 3and 6,440 m 3 of water per hectare cultivated was calculated respectively for the two crops. Ifwe take the benchmark productivities of 86.4 tons per hectare for sugar cane in SP, and 3.0tons per hectare for soybeans in MT (CONAB, 2011), it is possible to derive the averagedemand of 197 m 3 of water per ton of sugar cane in SP and 2,147 m 3 per ton of soybean in MTin 2010 (Table 4.4).In order to estimate the demand for water per crop in 2019, an average growth in productivityof 1.5% per year from 2011 onwards was initially considered for both sugar cane and soy.According to EMBRAPA (2008), approximately 70% of the increase in average productivity inthe soy crop in MT in the 2006–2010 period resulted from the increased availability of water inthe plantations, i.e. the increase in the total irrigated area. It is also estimated that, in thecase of the SP sugar cane crop, 62% of the rise in productivity in the same period resultedfrom the increase in the total irrigated area. 13 Thus we can estimate the evolution in theaverage demand for water for the sugar cane and soybean crops in m 3 per hectare and in m 3per ton in the 2010–2019 period (Table 4.4). In addition, an increase in the output of thesecrops at the same rate as the projected growth in biofuel production was considered, on theassumption that there will be no shift of any additional sugar production to ethanol or ofadditional soya meal and soybeans to bio-diesel. Therefore, in the 2010–2019 period, therewould be a 64% increase in sugar cane production, and 75% in soy production.In view of these assumptions, taking into account the projected increase in ethanol and biodieselproduction for the sugar cane and soy crops in SP and MT, we project a total waterdemand of 108,638 m 3 and 67,509 million m 3 respectively in 2019 (Table 4.4).13 Assuming the annual growth rates in the irrigated area in SP and MT will be maintained at 7.5% and 15.1%respectively, the total irrigated area in 2019 is estimated at 1.6 million ha in SP, and at 561,000 ha in MT.31