Property Times European Shopping Centres 2010 Shift to value-add ...

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Shopping centre: Existing stock and pipelineEuropean overviewExisting stock and development pipelineThere was over 120 million sq m of shopping centreGLA across Europe at the end of 2010 across approx.6,500 schemes.The UK, France, Italy, Germany and Spain have thelargest shopping centres stocks, accounting for 60%of total European stock (Figure 9). Western Europeaccounts for more than 90% of shopping centre stockin Europe, with the new entrant countries accountingfor the remaining 10%: however they have had highgrowth rates in recent years. Between 2006 and2009, approximately 18 million sq m of GLA weredelivered in Europe, including 76% in the Europe 15countries and 24% in Europe accession countries.The shopping centre stock per capita shows somewide differences between the European countries(Figure 10). Compared to the European average of238 sq m per thousand capita, Sweden, Ireland andthe Netherlands seem largely over-supplied with astock per capita over 400sq m. The shopping centrestock in the three major European markets – the UK,France and Italy – are within the European averagewhile the CEE countries and Germany are below theEuropean, average from 25% to 51%. Russia, whichposted the strongest increase in the recent years andhas also the most significant pipeline for the shortterm, is far below with a stock of 60sq m of shoppingcentre per thousand of capita. Based on this analysis,we expect to see an increasing development pipelinein Romania, Russia and Turkey, whilst in the Nordicsand the Netherlands the focus will be more onrefurbishments and redevelopments than on newdevelopments.Figure 9Shopping centre GLA per country in EuropeSource: ICSCFigure 10Ukraine2%Portugal2%Sweden3%Turkey4%Netherlands6%CZR2%Poland6%Ireland2%Russia7%Germany9%Stock per capita in 2010GLA sq m / per 000 capitaRomaniaTurkeyRussiaBelgiumHungaryGermanyPolandCZRFranceEuropeItalySpainUKFinlandSwedenIrelandNetherlandsOthers7%UK15%Spain10%France13%Italy12%0 200 400 600Source: ICSC, DTZ Researchwww.dtz.com 8
Shopping centre: Existing stock and pipelineAs a direct consequence of the economic slowdownand the high degree of uncertainty in retail markets,construction activity declined sharply in 2010 to reachits lowest level in five years. New shopping centresdelivered across Europe in 2010 are estimated at 3.5million sq m, with a large proportion located in Russiaand Turkey. In 2011 new supply should come back tothe market, especially in the eastern part of theregion, with Russia and Turkey again leading the waywith 2.1 and 2.8 million sq m, respectively, plannedfor delivery. We estimate that 13 million sq m of newshopping centre space will be delivered in 2011 and2012 (Figure 11).Unsurprisingly, Russia, Romania and Turkey areleading the first positions regarding the volume ofnew supply of shopping centres to be delivered in2011-2012 compared to the existing stock as at theend of 2010. The expected pipeline for the next twoyears represents more than 30% of the stock. Onceagain, these figures illustrate the huge differencesbetween the far Eastern Europe, with its really“booming” development trend and Western Europewhere developers and investors are much morefocused on redevelopments and refurbishments thanon new supply.Figure 11Development pipeline in Europe for 2011/2012Sq mRussiaTurkeyItalyPolandFranceSpainGermanyNetherl…UKSwedenHungaryBelgiumCZRSource: ICSC, DTZ ResearchFigure 120 1 000 2 000 3 000Development pipeline versus existing stock 2010UKIrelandCZRNetherlandsGermanySwedenFranceBelgiumSpainEuropeItalyHungaryPolandRussiaRomaniaTurkey0% 20% 40% 60%Source: ICSC, DTZ Researchwww.dtz.com 9
Page 4 and 5: Economic overviewFigure 6Retail sal
Page 6 and 7: RetailersMany of the larger non-foo
Page 10 and 11: Shopping centre: Existing stock and
Page 12 and 13: Investment marketLooking more speci
Page 14 and 15: Investment marketThe appeal of prim
Page 16 and 17: AppendixMajor expanding brands in t
Page 18 and 19: AppendixUnited KingdomLimited new s
Page 20 and 21: AppendixGermanyLimited new shopping
Page 22 and 23: AppendixFranceLargest shopping cent
Page 24 and 25: Focus on selected countriesSpainThe
Page 26 and 27: Focus on selected countriesThe Neth
Page 28 and 29: Focus on selected countriesNordicsA
Page 30 and 31: Focus on selected countriesPolandRe
Page 32 and 33: Focus on selected countriesHungaryD
Page 34 and 35: DefinitionsShopping centre: Defined
Page 36: DisclaimerThis report should not be

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