National Child Measurement Programme: Detailed Analysis of the ...

National Child Measurement Programme: Detailed Analysis of the 2007/08 Dataset 13As described above, an increase in NCMP participation rate is associated with an increase in thereported prevalence of obesity, possibly because this reflects a reduction in selective opt-out by heavierchildren. This association may explain some of the increase in reported prevalence of obesity.4.2 PCT prevalence of obesityStatistical process control charts enable the use of objective criteria for distinguishing backgroundor natural variation (‘common cause variation’) from events of significance identified by statisticaltechniques (‘special cause variation’). Control charts are plots of the underlying data with linesindicating the mean, median or target value and control limits superimposed. The common typesare based on simple statistical distributions. Funnel plots are a type of commonly used chart in publichealth methods where the indicator of interest is plotted against the denominator (usually samplesize). This provides a characteristic funnel shape which gives the chart its name. The control limits onfunnel plots are two and three standard deviations from the mean. The analysis carried out in thecurrent report uses the APHO Funnel Plot for Proportions and Percentages template.Figures 8 and 9 below show the funnel plots of obesity prevalence for Reception and Year 6respectively. They both show a high proportion of PCTs with a prevalence of obesity outside thefunnel control limits, represented by the dashed lines; this is more pronounced in Year 6. The PCTsoutside the funnel control limits indicate special cause variation, where these areas are significantlydifferent from the mean England value. A large proportion of points outside control limits is oftenreferred to as overdispersion.Detailed investigation of the particular characteristics of PCTs lying outside control limits may providea source of useful information about the determinants of obesity within these PCTs.Figure 8: Funnel plot of variation in obesity prevalence in Reception children 2007/08 across PCTsin England16DataAverage2SD limits3SD limits14Prevalence (%)1210860 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000Measured population by PCT (Reception)