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13. “Can 3.5" Drives Displace 5.25s in Personal Computing?” Electronic Business, 1 August, 1986,81–84.14. Personal interview with Mr. William Schroeder, Vice Chairman, Conner Peripherals Corporation,November 19, 1991.15. An insightful study on the linkage among a company’s historical experience, its capabilities, andwhat it consequently can and cannot do, appears in Dorothy Leonard-Barton, “Core Capabilities andCore Rigidities: A Paradox in Managing New Product Development,” Strategic Management Journal(13), 1992, 111–125.16. Personal interview with Mr. John Squires, cofounder and Executive Vice President, ConnerPeripherals Corporation, April 27, 1992.17. See, for example, George Gilder, “The Revitalization of Everything: The Law of the Microcosm,”Harvard Business Review, March-April, 1988, 49–62.18. Much of this information about Allen Bradley has been taken from John Gurda, The BradleyLegacy (Milwaukee: The Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, 1992).116
CHAPTER SEVENDiscovering New andEmerging MarketsMarkets that do not exist cannot be analyzed: Suppliers and customers must discover them together.Not only are the market applications for disruptive technologies unknown at the time of theirdevelopment, they are unknowable. The strategies and plans that managers formulate for confrontingdisruptive technological change, therefore, should be plans for learning and discovery rather than plansfor execution. This is an important point to understand, because managers who believe they know amarket’s future will plan and invest very differently from those who recognize the uncertainties of adeveloping market.Most managers learn about innovation in a sustaining technology context because most technologiesdeveloped by established companies are sustaining in character. Such innovations are, by definition,targeted at known markets in which customer needs are understood. In this environment, a planned,researched approach to evaluating, developing, and marketing innovative products is not only possible,it is critical to success.What this means, however, is that much of what the best executives in successful companies havelearned about managing innovation is not relevant to disruptive technologies. Most marketers, forexample, have been schooled extensively, at universities and on the job, in the important art of listeningto their customers, but few have any theoretical or practical training in how to discover markets that donot yet exist. The problem with this lopsided experience base is that when the same analytical anddecision-making processes learned in the school of sustaining innovation are applied to enabling ordisruptive technologies, the effect on the company can be paralyzing. These processes demand crisplyquantified information when none exists, accurate estimates of financial returns when neither revenuesnor costs can be known, and management according to detailed plans and budgets that cannot beformulated. Applying inappropriate marketing, investment, and management processes can render goodcompanies incapable of creating the new markets in which enabling or disruptive technologies are firstused.In this chapter we shall see how experts in the disk drive industry were able to forecast the markets forsustaining technologies with stunning accuracy but had great difficulty in spotting the advent andpredicting the size of new markets for disruptive innovations. Additional case histories in themotorcycle and microprocessor industries further demonstrate the uncertainty about emerging marketapplications for disruptive or enabling technologies, even those that, in retrospect, appear obvious.FORECASTING MARKETS FOR SUSTAINING VERSUS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIESAn unusual amount of market information has been available about the disk drive industry from itsearliest days—a major reason why studying it has yielded such rich insights. The primary source of117
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TheInnovator’sDilemmaWhen New Tec
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ContentsIn GratitudeIntroductionPAR
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Clayton M. ChristensenHarvard Busin
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Digital Equipment Corporation creat
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they lose their positions of leader
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Disruptive Technologies versus Rati
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understand what has caused those ci
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Chapter 7 discusses a different app
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But the electric car is a disruptiv
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Part OneWHY GREAT COMPANIESCAN FAIL
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was the size of a large refrigerato
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To test this hypothesis, I assemble
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Figure 1.5 describes a sustaining t
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Source: Data are from various issue
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Between 1978 and 1980, several entr
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The 3.5-inch drive was first develo
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Figure 1.8 Leadership of Entrant Fi
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Rigid Disk Drive Industry: A Histor
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CHAPTER TWOValue Networks and theIm
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toward sustaining innovations and a
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how each value network exhibits a v
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structure. Research, engineering, a
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Figure 2.5 The Conventional Technol
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firms’ decision-making processes
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annually introduced as a percentage
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ecause they have no moving parts, t
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Figure 2.7 Improvements in Areal De
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IMPLICATIONS OF THE VALUE NETWORK F
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esident in companies today result f
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CHAPTER THREEDisruptive Technologic
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Source: Data are from the Historica
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Because their capacity was so small
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Page 70 and 71: its archives, and Toth and Haddock
Page 72 and 73: CHAPTER FOURWhat Goes Up, Can’t G
Page 74 and 75: challenges of their competitors. Gr
Page 76 and 77: organization’s middle managers pl
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Page 80 and 81: Minimill steel making first became
Page 82 and 83: Once their position in the market f
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Page 86 and 87: Part TwoMANAGING DISRUPTIVETECHNOLO
Page 88 and 89: The sum of these studies is that wh
Page 90 and 91: want? One option is to convince eve
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Page 94 and 95: those laws, people flew quite succe
Page 96 and 97: The first discount store was Korvet
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Page 102 and 103: CHAPTER SIXMatch the Size of theOrg
Page 104 and 105: What benefit, if any, did leadershi
Page 106 and 107: Source: Data are from various issue
Page 108 and 109: Finally, there is substantial evide
Page 110 and 111: Because emerging markets are small
Page 112 and 113: There are many success stories to t
Page 114 and 115: This recommendation is not new, of
Page 118 and 119: data, Disk/Trend Report, published
Page 120 and 121: MB, and a second model, introduced
Page 122 and 123: to make small deliveries to local c
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Page 126 and 127: powerful deterrent to the movement
Page 128 and 129: therefore, may view creation of new
Page 130 and 131: ResourcesResources are the most vis
Page 132 and 133: its Corona model—a product target
Page 134 and 135: go public based upon a hot initial
Page 136 and 137: such success in the minicomputer bu
Page 138 and 139: they made these acquisitions late a
Page 140 and 141: Figure 8.1 Fitting an Innovation’
Page 142 and 143: structured. For Compaq, Hewlett-Pac
Page 144 and 145: CHAPTER NINEPerformance Provided,Ma
Page 146 and 147: Specifically, in the desktop person
Page 148 and 149: A product becomes a commodity withi
Page 150 and 151: 1. The Weaknesses of Disruptive Tec
Page 152 and 153: Scott Cook, Intuit’s founder, sur
Page 154 and 155: CONTROLLING THE EVOLUTION OF PRODUC
Page 156 and 157: Source: An earlier version of this
Page 158 and 159: originally developed by Venetian me
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Page 162 and 163: Having decided that electric vehicl
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The major automakers engaged in ele
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customers who pay the present bills
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Clearly, as will be discussed below
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CHAPTER ELEVENThe Dilemmas of Innov
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Seventh, and last, the research sum
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develop those technologies themselv
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2. There is a tendency in all marke
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