THE 1920S DROUGHT RECORDED BY TREE RINGS AND ...

THE 1920S DROUGHT IN NORTHERN CHINA 425Figure 10. The average dryness/wetness indices from fifteen stations (see Figure 1) in central InnerMongolia, Shaanxi, Gansu and Qinghai Provinces (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science,1981).the drought occurrence (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, 1981). Asdemonstrated in Figure 10, sustained and severe droughts in the last 500 years occurredin 1484–1486, 1528–1529, 1586–1587, 1638–1640, 1720–1722 and 1877–1878, and 1928–1929. Of these, the drought occurrence in the 1920s was the mostsevere in the past 200 years. It was reported that the 1920s drought may havebeen the most severe in the past 700 years in the middle Qilian Mountains (Zhangand Wu, 1997) where no dryness/wetness index was available. The early droughts,however, in 1484–1486 and 1638–1640, appear to have been more severe than the1920s drought based on fifteen stations in northern China.4.4. THE EFFECTS OF THE 1920S DROUGHT ON SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONSThe severe drought in the 1920s had a catastrophic effect on socioeconomic conditionsin northern China (Table V). After sustained drought and repeated cropfailures, severe famine ensued in 1928 and 1929 and the number of people affectedreached approximately 34 million (Deng, 1937). The toll of the famine is difficult toaccurately determine. It is generally accepted that at least four million people died(Xu, 1997). Edgar Snow, an American journalist, reported that the famine led to thedeaths of about five million people in northern China (Snow, 1981). Deng (1937)estimated at least ten million deaths due to starvation and associated diseases in1927–1929 in northern China. Owing to a dramatic decline in the birth and survival