Rwanda Green Growth Strategy 18nov11 - Global Climate Change ...

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Chapter 6The key uncertainties for Rwanda that should be used in scenarios are oil price, oil dependency,population growth, urbanisation, temperature increase, rainfall change, energy demand and water demand.Rwanda needs forecasts of energy supply/demand to 2050 with expected shifts in source and associatedGHG emissions in order to generate emissions reductions scenarios. Rwanda also needs to account forland and water demand into the future by all sectors and understand the degree of competition forresources between sectors. The Technical Coordinating Committee will be responsible for initiating a futurescenarios programme and ensure that all sectors are involved, due to its cross-cutting nature.6.4 Risks to Implementation This Strategy lays out an ambitious path for development in Rwanda. It aims to contribute to povertyreduction and an improved standard of living for all Rwandans. If all of the Enabling Pillars are put in place,and all the Programmes of Action are implemented, then Rwanda will indeed have a climate resilient lowcarbon economy by 2050. There are challenges ahead however. The Strategy requires large amounts offinance and human capacity to be implemented. This will require significant support from developmentpartners, civil society and the private sector. As outlined in EDPRS, development of the private sector iscrucial for sustainable development in Rwanda and more work needs to be done to encourage foreigndirect investment. Capacity building is underway in government but needs to be scaled up to meet theneeds of the Strategy. Initially, Rwanda will need technical assistance from the international community, andlocal staff will need to study and gain work experience abroad until the technical and university courses areup and running in Rwanda. School education and primary health care remain fundamental to development,enabling the creation of a healthy skilled workforce. Rwanda has made much progress in the past decade,but aspires to achieve even more.48Government of Rwanda
ReferencesReferencesReferences1. UN, 2011. World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Population Division of the Department ofEconomic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat.2. Shongwe, ME, Van Oldenborgh, JG, Van den Hurk, B and Van Aalst, M, 2011. Projected changes inmean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming, Part II: East Africa, Journal ofClimate, submitted.3. Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), 2009. Economics of Climate Change in Rwanda.4. World Resource Institute (WRI), 2011. Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 8.0.5. International Union for Conservation on Nature (IUCN), 2011. http://www.iucn.org/about/union/secretariat/offices/esaro/?7308/IUCN-welcomes-Rwanda-as-new-State-Member6. Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007. Contribution of Working Group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., D. Qin,M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Avery, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.) Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.7. Conway, D, 2002. Extreme Rainfall Events and Lake Level Changes in East Africa: Recent Eventsand Historical Precedents In E.O. Odada (ed.) The Second International Symposium on theLimnology, Climatology and Palaeoclimatology of the East African Lakes. Kluwer.8. Nakicenovic, N and Swart, R, (eds.) 2000. Special report on Emissions Scenarios. A special report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, Cambridge University Press, UK, 5099pp.Footnote: CMIP3 output was used by Working Group I of the IPCC in the production of the FourthAssessment Report (AR4). In running the models different scenarios or ‘pathways’ of future GHGemissions are used to assess their differing impact on global climate. The scenario used for the resultshere, ‘A1B’, can be referred to as a ‘medium’ emissions scenario; that is, it describes a world with rapideconomic and population growth, but with a balance of fossil fuel and renewable energy sources [8] . Theconcentrations of GHGs and associated temperature increase fall towards the middle of the sixscenarios; it is used here to give an indication of potential change to Rwanda’s climate. The data refer tomodel grid cells over Rwanda specifically.9. Liu, J, Fritzb, S, Van Wesenbeeckc, CFA, Fuchsd, M, Youe, L, Obersteinerb, M, and Yang, H., 2008.A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in thecontext of global change. Global and Planetary Change. Volume 64, Issues 3-4, December 2008, pp222-235.National Strategy on Climate Change and Low Carbon Development 49
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Executive SummaryRwanda imports all
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Executive SummaryAs the three large
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Executive Summaryrural areas and th
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Executive SummaryviiiGovernment of
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xGovernment of Rwanda
Page 14 and 15: Acronyms and AbbreviationsJADF Join
Page 16 and 17: Definition of Key TermsClimate resi
Page 18 and 19: Chapter 1The purpose of the Strateg
Page 20 and 21: Chapter 1Strategy Write Up and Revi
Page 22 and 23: Chapter 2Rwanda hosts deposits of g
Page 24 and 25: Chapter 2temperature increase of up
Page 26 and 27: Chapter 2Figure 8: Global oil price
Page 28 and 29: Chapter 2Figure 10: Rwanda’s a) k
Page 30 and 31: Chapter 2GHG emissionsFigure 11: Il
Page 32 and 33: Chapter 216Government of Rwanda
Page 34 and 35: Chapter 3Vision 2050: For Rwanda to
Page 37 and 38: Chapter 4Programmes of ActionChapte
Page 39 and 40: Chapter 4Programme 4: Integrated Ap
Page 41 and 42: Chapter 4Programme 9: Efficient Res
Page 43 and 44: Chapter 5Enabling PillarsChapter 5:
Page 45 and 46: Chapter 5Assessment of Adaptation a
Page 47 and 48: Chapter 5WaterTransportMiningLandIn
Page 49 and 50: Chapter 5Priority 3. Promote CDM an
Page 51 and 52: Chapter 5Priority 2. Develop capaci
Page 53 and 54: Chapter 5A Technology Needs Assessm
Page 55 and 56: Chapter 6Roadmap to ImplementationC
Page 57 and 58: Chapter 62. Integrated soil fertili
Page 59 and 60: Chapter 65. Knowledge Management: S
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 6Gender EqualityGender equa
Page 63: Chapter 6To deal with unavoidable m
Page 67 and 68: AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsAck
Page 69 and 70: AcknowledgementsAndy Plumptre, Anec
Page 71 and 72: Detailed Programmes of ActionDetail
Page 73 and 74: Detailed Programmes of ActionStrate
Page 75 and 76: Strategic ObjectivesEnergy Security
Page 99: Detailed Programmes of ActionStrate
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