States. These countries have very limitedterrestrial resources but vast mar<strong>in</strong>e resources.Some earn meagre, but important, cash <strong>in</strong>comefrom copra. O<strong>the</strong>rs earn valuable foreignexchange from diversified agricultural exports,notably Cook Isl<strong>and</strong>s from papaya, Niue fromtaro, <strong>and</strong> Kiribati from seaweed. Overall,<strong>agriculture</strong> contributes most to subsistence <strong>and</strong>thus <strong>the</strong> survival of <strong>the</strong>se countries. The levelof human development varies from very high<strong>in</strong> Palau, Niue, Cook Isl<strong>and</strong>s <strong>and</strong> Tuvalu, tomoderate <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r countries. Environmentalproblems fac<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>se countries <strong>in</strong>clude sealevel rise, coastal erosion <strong>and</strong>, <strong>in</strong> some, rapidpopulation growth, factors that make <strong>the</strong>se t<strong>in</strong>ystates highly vulnerable to <strong>disasters</strong>.4. Countries where <strong>agriculture</strong> is of littleimportance: Nauru, American Samoa, Guam,<strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> Commonwealth of Nor<strong>the</strong>rn MarianasBecause of <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>significance of <strong>the</strong>agricultural sector <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>se countries, <strong>the</strong>y arenot <strong>in</strong>cluded <strong>in</strong> this study.THE VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE TONATURAL DISASTERSA number of studies have <strong>in</strong>dicated <strong>the</strong>relatively high level of vulnerability of <strong>Pacific</strong>isl<strong>and</strong> countries to natural <strong>disasters</strong>. Factorscontribut<strong>in</strong>g to this vulnerability are:<strong>the</strong> high impact of <strong>disasters</strong>proportionate to <strong>the</strong> size of <strong>the</strong>country;fragile isl<strong>and</strong> environments;scattered <strong>and</strong> isolated communities;urbanisation <strong>and</strong> populationconcentrations; <strong>and</strong><strong>the</strong> degradation of traditional cop<strong>in</strong>gmeasures 1 .To this list could be addedIncreas<strong>in</strong>g environmentaldegradation.Evidence of <strong>the</strong> impact of natural <strong>disasters</strong> on<strong>the</strong>se economies can be gleaned from macroeconomic<strong>in</strong>dicators such as GDP growthfollow<strong>in</strong>g major cyclones. For example, forseveral years after Cyclone Uma <strong>in</strong> 1987,Vanuatu experienced a real growth rate of -9per cent. In Samoa, <strong>the</strong> tw<strong>in</strong> cyclones of Ofa<strong>and</strong> Val led to real growth rates of -7.5 percent, 27.9 per cent, <strong>and</strong> -4.3 per cent <strong>in</strong> 1990,1991, <strong>and</strong> 1992 respectively. In Fiji, Benson(1997:59) concluded that severe natural<strong>disasters</strong> have caused substantial decl<strong>in</strong>es <strong>in</strong>GDP growth.Yet <strong>the</strong>re rema<strong>in</strong>s a surpris<strong>in</strong>g resiliency <strong>in</strong><strong>the</strong>se small economies to natural <strong>disasters</strong>,particularly cyclones. Nowhere is this moreevident than <strong>in</strong> Samoa. In <strong>the</strong> space of fiveyears, Samoa experienced two '100 year'cyclones <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> loss, through disease, of <strong>the</strong>country's most important staple food <strong>and</strong> ma<strong>in</strong>export earner. For most countries this would bea disaster of catastrophic proportions. Theequivalent, perhaps, of a disease thatelim<strong>in</strong>ated most of Thail<strong>and</strong>'s rice crop, or <strong>the</strong>potato blight <strong>in</strong> Irel<strong>and</strong> last century. Yet Samoaexperienced no fam<strong>in</strong>e, export levels have beenrestored <strong>and</strong> economic activity is now buoyant,with real GDP grow<strong>in</strong>g 6.7 percent <strong>in</strong> 1996,be<strong>in</strong>g by far <strong>the</strong> best performance of any<strong>Pacific</strong> isl<strong>and</strong> country. The Samoan experienceis testimony to <strong>the</strong> 'hidden strength' of <strong>the</strong>seem<strong>in</strong>gly weak <strong>Pacific</strong> isl<strong>and</strong> economies thatlies with <strong>the</strong>ir traditional food productionsystems.In exam<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> vulnerability of <strong>agriculture</strong>,this study considers three broad categories ofnatural <strong>disasters</strong>:1. volcanic eruptions;2. Biological <strong>disasters</strong>; especially <strong>the</strong><strong>in</strong>cursion of agricultural pests <strong>and</strong> diseases;<strong>and</strong>3. Environmental <strong>disasters</strong>.Physical natural <strong>disasters</strong>The <strong>Pacific</strong> region's generally benign climate ispunctuated by climatic extremes <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> form ofcyclones, floods <strong>and</strong>, more <strong>in</strong>sidiously,drought. These extremes of climate have farreach<strong>in</strong>geffects on l<strong>and</strong>-use patterns, <strong>and</strong>serious environmental consequences thatrequire proper l<strong>and</strong> use plann<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> watershedmanagement. Chung (1996) summarised <strong>the</strong>physical hazards affect<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> region'sagricultural sector (Table 2). Those with widestimpact are cyclones, floods, <strong>and</strong> droughts. Insome locations, tsunami, l<strong>and</strong>slides, volcaniceruptions, <strong>and</strong> frosts are significant hazards1 UNDHA, 1994:8
American Samoa Un<strong>in</strong>corporated US 240 61,100High isl<strong>and</strong>s with afewLimited. Some subsistence <strong>and</strong> a little marketgarden<strong>in</strong>g.Little subsistence base <strong>and</strong> environmentalCook Isl<strong>and</strong>s Self-govern<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> 180 19,000 High isl<strong>and</strong>s <strong>and</strong> Considerable. Ma<strong>in</strong> export earner. Subsistence is a Sea level rise <strong>and</strong> coastal erosion.atollsfree association with significant component of GDP.New Zeal<strong>and</strong>"Federated States Self-govern<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> free 702 111,800 High isl<strong>and</strong>s with a fewDeforestation, l<strong>and</strong> degradation, sea levelSome. Small export earn<strong>in</strong>gs, some domestic cashatollsrise,of Micronesia association with US <strong>in</strong>come <strong>and</strong> some subsistence. <strong>and</strong> coastal erosion.French Polynesia Overseas territory of 3,521 222,300 High isl<strong>and</strong>Some. Small export earn<strong>in</strong>gs, domestic cash <strong>in</strong>come<strong>and</strong>Mar<strong>in</strong>e pollution, sea level rise, <strong>and</strong> coastalGuam Un<strong>in</strong>corporated US 549 145,400 Predom<strong>in</strong>ately atollsLimited. Some market garden<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> a littlesubsistence.Little subsistence base <strong>and</strong> environmentalKiribati Independent state 726 83,400Considerable, especially for subsistence. CopraSea level rise, high population density <strong>and</strong>importantAtolls for outer isl<strong>and</strong> cash <strong>in</strong>come <strong>and</strong> some foreign growth. On ma<strong>in</strong> atolls, coastal erosion <strong>and</strong>lagoon pollution.Marshall Isl<strong>and</strong>s Self-govern<strong>in</strong>g 720 60,000Limited. Some subsistence <strong>and</strong> cash earned fromcopra.Sea level rise, coastal erosion <strong>and</strong> lagoonTable 1: A summary of <strong>Pacific</strong> isl<strong>and</strong> countries <strong>and</strong> territoriesCountry! Political status L<strong>and</strong> area Population Geographic type Importance of agricultural sector Ma<strong>in</strong> environmental issuesTerritory (sq.km) (1997 est.)territory atolls problems associated with urbanisationFiji Isl<strong>and</strong>s Independent state 18,376 779,200 High isl<strong>and</strong>s <strong>and</strong> atolls Fundamental. Ma<strong>in</strong> employer <strong>and</strong> net foreign L<strong>and</strong> degradation, over-exploitation ofearner. Subsistence provides a significant proportion of resources, urban pollution <strong>and</strong> associatedGDP. problems with urbanisation.France subsistence. erosion.territory problems associated with urbanisation.republic <strong>in</strong> free pollution; problems associated withassociation with <strong>the</strong> Raised coral isl<strong>and</strong> , population density <strong>and</strong> growth; <strong>and</strong>US effects of nuclear test<strong>in</strong>g.Complete loss of arable l<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong>Nauru Independent state 21 11,200 High isl<strong>and</strong> Insignificant.subsistencebase.New Caledonia Overseas territory of 19,103 201,300 Geographic type Important, particularly <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> south. L<strong>and</strong> degradation, pollution from m<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<strong>and</strong>France problems associated with urbanisation.
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Subsistence crops in the form of co
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food garden (in their first second
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eappear to fruit within six months.
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Cattle-rearing is perhaps the most
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Table 22: Damage Caused by Cyclone
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Table 23: Cyclones, copra, and econ
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)Samoa. Sufficient knowledge and pr
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Fergus, the NDMO made the unprecede
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5. DISASTERS AND AGRICULTURE ON ATO
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THE GEOGRAPHY OF TUVALU: ASUMMARYc)
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Table 27: The coconut and its uses
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Funafuti, Nukufetau and Nanumea, su
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than 500 tops per person which undo
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ecause of the high, brackish water
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marked disparities, with no rationa
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Table 29: The susceptibility of Pac
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Table 30: The susceptibility of Pac
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No major pest orSugar The crop, nat
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Planners' targets were unrealistica
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THE COST OF DISASTERS TO THEAGRICUL
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Table 34: Results of regressions to
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a more ill-conceived crop choice ba
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equivalent to about 11 per cent of
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7. RECOMMENDATIONS ON COST-EFFECTIV
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approximately equivalent to that of
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Table 39: An indicative budget for
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impacts are often correlated with,
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Hazard information needs to incorpo
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cost- effective to invest several m
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with adequate resources for its rap
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costs where the steeplands meet the
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Development Bank, Manila.Twyford 1.