<strong>Ethnicity</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Race</strong> <strong>in</strong> a Chang<strong>in</strong>g <strong>World</strong>: A Review Journalthe Democrats held retir<strong>in</strong>g Senator Chris Dodd’s seat, <strong>and</strong> took over the Governor’s office; theGOP c<strong>and</strong>idate for governor was lead<strong>in</strong>g until the results from Bridgeport, which has a large blackpopulation, were counted.Probably the two states most emblematic of 2010 for black voters were Ill<strong>in</strong>ois <strong>and</strong> Ohio. Blackturnout <strong>in</strong> Ill<strong>in</strong>ois was spectacular for a midterm election. The black share of the total vote <strong>in</strong> Ill<strong>in</strong>ois<strong>in</strong>creased from 10 percent <strong>in</strong> 2006 to 19 percent <strong>in</strong> 2010 (20 percent <strong>in</strong> the US Senate contest). Atthe top of the ticket <strong>in</strong> Ill<strong>in</strong>ois were competitive US Senate (President Obama’s seat) <strong>and</strong> Governorraces. Accord<strong>in</strong>g to the exit polls, <strong>in</strong> the US Senate race, the Democratic Alexi Giannoulias received 31percent of the white vote <strong>and</strong> lost a very close race to Republican Mark Kirk. In the Governor’s race,Democrat Pat Qu<strong>in</strong>n received 33 percent of the white vote <strong>and</strong> won a close race. Thus, due to a strongblack turnout, a Democrat is elected governor with only one-third of the white vote, <strong>and</strong> a Democratloses a close race for the US Senate despite a strong black vote because he could not manage to w<strong>in</strong>the votes of even one-third of whites.Ohio was another state where the black vote <strong>in</strong>creased significantly, <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g from 12 percent of allvoters <strong>in</strong> 2006 to 15 percent of all voters <strong>in</strong> 2010. However, the statewide Democratic c<strong>and</strong>idates didnot receive the support of enough white voters to w<strong>in</strong>. Ted Strickl<strong>and</strong>, the Democrat’s c<strong>and</strong>idate forgovernor, received only 38 percent of the white vote, <strong>and</strong> thus, despite a strong black vote, he lost aclose election.There were other states where a solid black turnout was <strong>in</strong>sufficient to change the outcome becausethe Democratic c<strong>and</strong>idate failed to get enough white support to emerge victorious. PennsylvaniaDemocratic US Senate c<strong>and</strong>idate received solid black support but his 43 percent white support was<strong>in</strong>sufficient to w<strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong> a very close election. Democrat Rob<strong>in</strong> Carnahan had even stronger black support<strong>in</strong> her US Senate run <strong>in</strong> Missouri, but she failed to get even one-third of the white vote.The narrative of US House races was very similar. The Democrats lost over 60 seats <strong>in</strong> 2010, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>gmore than a dozen <strong>in</strong> districts with a significant black vote. In districts with at least 10 percent blackvot<strong>in</strong>g-age population, the Democrats lost seats <strong>in</strong> Alabama (1), Arkansas (2), Florida (2), Louisiana(1), Maryl<strong>and</strong> (1), Mississippi (2), Ohio (2), South Carol<strong>in</strong>a (1), Tennessee (1), Texas (1), <strong>and</strong> Virg<strong>in</strong>ia (2).However, Democrats held on to House seats <strong>in</strong> such districts <strong>in</strong> North Carol<strong>in</strong>a, Ohio, <strong>and</strong> Virg<strong>in</strong>ia, <strong>and</strong>picked up seats <strong>in</strong> Delaware <strong>and</strong> Louisiana (New Orleans).A Perspective on 2010 <strong>and</strong> 2012The results of 2010 Midterms--held dur<strong>in</strong>g a period of severe economic downturn--were a repudiationof the party <strong>in</strong> power, the Democrats, as is always the case dur<strong>in</strong>g periods of economic distress.Turnout was about 42 percent versus about 60 percent <strong>in</strong> 2008. There were 29 million people whovoted for President Obama <strong>in</strong> 2008 who did not turn out <strong>in</strong> 2010. The exit polls suggest that the peoplewho voted <strong>in</strong> 2010 - much older <strong>and</strong> whiter than the electorate <strong>in</strong> 2008- liked the Republican partyno more than the Democratic party. The Republicans ga<strong>in</strong>ed control of one branch of the federallegislature <strong>in</strong> Wash<strong>in</strong>gton; they do not control the federal government. There is another importantdatum from the 2010 elections that has been little noted: many of the ga<strong>in</strong>s that the Republicansmade were by the slimmest of marg<strong>in</strong>s <strong>in</strong> US Senate races, Governor’s races, <strong>and</strong> US House races.Every year that passes, the US population becomes less white, with the white work<strong>in</strong>g class especially<strong>in</strong> decl<strong>in</strong>e. The w<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g Republican US Senate <strong>and</strong> Governor c<strong>and</strong>idates will not be on the ballot <strong>in</strong>2012, when the composition of the electorate will be quite different than it was <strong>in</strong> 2010, but all of thenewly elected Republican US House members will be on the ballot--<strong>and</strong> an improved economy <strong>and</strong> adifferent electorate could easily change the new status quo.African-American Voters: Partisan Direction <strong>in</strong> the 2010 Midterms46
<strong>Ethnicity</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Race</strong> <strong>in</strong> a Chang<strong>in</strong>g <strong>World</strong>: A Review JournalAcross the country, the black vote <strong>in</strong> US House elections was 90 percent Democratic <strong>and</strong> n<strong>in</strong>e percentRepublican [Table 1]. There aga<strong>in</strong> was a gender gap among African-Americans <strong>in</strong> 2010 with blackwomen (93 percent Democratic vs. six percent Republican) vot<strong>in</strong>g more Democratic than black men(84 vs. 14 percent). The black vote <strong>in</strong> 2010 was three-to-two female to male as has been the case <strong>in</strong>many recent elections.As expected, there was no partisan shift toward the Republican party given their attacks on PresidentObama, who rema<strong>in</strong>s exceptionally popular with African-Americans. There were very few <strong>in</strong>dividualRepublican c<strong>and</strong>idates who fared better with black voters than the black population’s partisanshipwould anticipate [Table 2]; the GOP’s two los<strong>in</strong>g c<strong>and</strong>idates at the top of the ticket <strong>in</strong> California, MegWhitman (21 percent) <strong>and</strong> Carly Fior<strong>in</strong>a (17 percent) were the only Republicans who garnered aboveaverage support from African-Americans.Black C<strong>and</strong>idates for Statewide Constitutional Office <strong>in</strong> 2010There were 16 black c<strong>and</strong>idates who sought statewide constitutional office <strong>in</strong> 2010 [Table 3a], sixwomen <strong>and</strong> ten men. The 16 c<strong>and</strong>idates <strong>in</strong>cluded 15 Democrats, <strong>and</strong> one Republican. Of the 16 blackc<strong>and</strong>idates for statewide office, eight were w<strong>in</strong>ners--seven Democrats <strong>and</strong> the lone Republican.Table 3a. Black Major Party Nom<strong>in</strong>ees for Statewide Office, 2010StateBVAP(%)Office Black Nom<strong>in</strong>ee(s) VoteAL State Auditor Mir<strong>and</strong>a Joseph (D)? 38CA Attorney General Kamala Harris (D)> n/aCT Treasurer (x) Denise Nappier (D)> 54DE Treasurer Chip Flowers (D)> 51FLGAUS SenatorLieutenant Governor 1US SenatorSecretary of StateKendrick Meek (D)?Jennifer Carroll (R)>Michael Thurmond (D)?Georganna S<strong>in</strong>kfield (D)?IL Secretary of State (x) Jesse White (D)> 70IN Secretary of State Vop Osili (D)? 37MD Lieutenant Governor 1 (x) Anthony Brown (D)> 56MA Governor (x) Deval Patrick (D)> 48NM Treasurer (x) James Lewis (D)> 54OHLieutenant Governor 1TreasurerYvette McGee Brown (D)?Kev<strong>in</strong> Boyce (D)?SC US Senator Alv<strong>in</strong> Greene (D)? 28(x) Incumbent 1. Governor <strong>and</strong> Lieutenant Governor run together on the same ticket.> Won ? Lost204939394740Among the Democratic statewide nom<strong>in</strong>ees, the most prom<strong>in</strong>ent victors were MassachusettsGovernor Deval Patrick, re-elected to a second term; this is the first time a black governor hasbeen re-elected. Also re-elected was Maryl<strong>and</strong> Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown, <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong> a first,Republican Jennifer Carroll was elected the Lieutenant Governor of Florida. Other noteworthy firsts47
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