Deep Shift Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact

Shift 5: Ubiquitous Computing
The tipping point: 90% of the population with regular access to the internet
Expected date: 2024
By 2025: 79% of respondents expected this tipping point will have occurred
Computing is becoming more accessible every day, and computing power has never been more available to individuals –
be that via a computer with internet connection, a smartphone with 3G/4G or services in the cloud.
Today, 43% of the world’s population is connected to the internet. 6 And, 1.2 billion smartphones were sold in 2014 alone. 7
In 2015, sales of tablets are estimated to take over sales of personal computers (PCs), while mobile phone sales (all
combined) will outpace computers by 6 to 1. 8 As the internet has been outgrowing every other media channel in speed of
adoption, it is expected that, in only a few years, three-quarters of the world’s population will have regular access to the
web.
In the future, regular access to the internet and information will no longer be a benefit of developed economies, but
a basic right just like clean water. Because wireless technologies require less infrastructure than many other utilities
(electricity, roads and water), they will very likely become accessible much quicker than the others. Hence, anyone from
any country will be able to access and interact with information from the opposite corner of the world. Content creation and
dissemination will become easier than ever before.
Positive impacts
––
More economic participation of disadvantaged
populations located in remote or underdeveloped
regions (“last mile”)
––
Access to education, healthcare and government
services
––
Presence
––
Access to skills, greater employment, shift in types of
jobs
––
Expanded market size/e-commerce
––
More information (see “Our Digital Presence”)
––
More civic participation
––
Democratization/political shifts
––
“Last mile”: increased transparency and participation
versus an increase in manipulation and echo
chambers
Negative impacts
––
Increased manipulation and echo chambers
––
Political fragmentation
––
Walled gardens (i.e. limited environments, for
authenticated users only) do not allow full access in
some regions/countries
The shift in action
To make the internet available to the next 4 billion users, two key challenges must be overcome: access must be available,
and it must be affordable. The race to provide the rest of the world access to the web is underway. Already, over 85% of
the world’s population lives within a couple kilometres of a mobile phone tower that could deliver internet service. 9 Mobile
operators around the world are expanding internet access rapidly. Facebook’s Internet.org, a project with mobile network
operators, has enabled access to free basic internet services for over a billion people in 17 countries in the last year. 10 And,
many initiatives are under way to affordably connect even the most remote regions: Facebook’s Internet.org is developing
internet drones, Google’s Project Loon is using balloons and SpaceX is investing in new low-cost satellite networks.
12 Deep Shift - Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact