Deep Shift Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact

Shift 19: 3D Printing and Manufacturing
The tipping point: The first 3D-printed car in production
Expected date: 2022
By 2025: 84% of respondents expected this tipping point to have occurred
3D printing, or additive manufacturing, is the process of creating a physical object by printing it layer upon layer from a
digital 3D drawing or model. Imagine creating a loaf of bread, slice by slice. 3D printing has the potential to create very
complex products without complex equipment. 24 Eventually, many different kinds of materials will be used in the 3D printer,
such as plastic, aluminium, stainless steel, ceramic or even advanced alloys, and the printer will be able to do what a whole
factory was once required to accomplish. It is already being used in a range of applications, from making wind turbines to
toys.
Over time, 3D printers will overcome the obstacles of speed, cost and size, and become more pervasive. Gartner has
developed a “Hype Cycle” chart (Figure 6) showing the various stages of different 3D printing capabilities and their market
impact, and plotting most business uses of the technology as entering the “slope of enlightenment”. 25
Figure 6: Hype Cycle for 3D Printing
Source: Gartner (July 2014)
Positive impacts
––
Accelerated product development
––
Reduction in the design-to-manufacturing cycle
––
Easily manufactured intricate parts (not possible or
difficult to do earlier)
––
Rising demand for product designers
––
Educational institutions using 3D printing to accelerate
learning and understanding
––
Democratized power of creation/manufacturing (both
limited only by the design)
––
Traditional mass manufacturing responding to the
challenge by finding ways to reduce costs and the size
of minimum runs
––
Growth in open-source “plans” to print a range of
objects
––
Birth of a new industry supplying printing materials
––
Rise in entrepreneurial opportunities in the space 26
––
Environmental benefits from reduced transportation
requirements
Negative impacts
––
Growth in waste for disposal, and further burden on
the environment
––
Production of parts in the layer process that are
anisotropic, i.e. their strength is not the same in all
directions, which could limit the functionality of parts
––
Job losses in a disrupted industry
––
Primacy of intellectual property as a source of value in
productivity
––
Piracy
––
Brand and product quality
Deep Shift - Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact
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