Afghanistan in 2015 1

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 Executive Summary Afghanistan in 2015: A Survey of the Afghan People is The Asia Foundation’s eleventh annual public opinion survey in Afghanistan. The longest-running barometer of Afghan opinions, the survey has gathered the views of 75,144 Afghans nationwide on a wide range of issues central to the country’s growth and development since 2004. All data is free to the public, available on The Asia Foundation website. This year witnessed major changes in national mood, reflecting rising concern over insecurity and a struggling economy. One year ago, as the results of the presidential election were due to be announced, the majority of respondents were optimistic about the direction of the country. Since then, a contentious election was followed by the formation of the National Unity Government (NUG) in September 2014, and political struggles have been compounded by rising security threats, as well as unemployment and economic shocks caused by the reduced foreign military footprint and declining development funding by the international community. This year’s survey polled 9,586 Afghan citizens, including 50.6% male and 49.4% female respondents, representing 14 ethnic groups and all 34 provinces in the country. Face-to-face interviews were conducted between June 11 and June 28, 2015, by a team of 939 trained Afghan enumerators matched with respondents by gender (i.e., men interviewed men, and women interviewed women). All enumerators are residents of the provinces where they conduct interviews. Survey results are weighted to be nationally representative using the most recent population data (2015-2016) released by the Afghan Central Statistics Organization (CSO). The total sample consisted of 18% urban households and 82% rural households. This year, the complex margin of error is +/-1.6% for the probability sample, based on a design effect of 2.53 and a confidence interval of 95%. The Foundation’s longstanding research partner, the Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research (ACSOR), conducted all survey fieldwork and logistics, while its parent company, D3 Systems, Inc., provided analytical and methodological support. As was the case for the 2013 and 2014 surveys, Sayara Research conducted third-party validation of fieldwork, a best practice for survey research in challenging environments. Together with its partners, the Foundation is committed to quality control processes guided by principles of validity and reliability. This year’s Survey of the Afghan People includes several new questions proposed by key users of the survey findings. New questions explore Afghans’ views on problems facing youth, reconciliation with the Taliban, the organization known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant/Syria (ISIL/ISIS), landmine incidents and government care for people injured by landmines and the conflict, women in leadership positions, and access to social media on mobile phones. An in-depth discussion of the survey methodology is provided in Appendix 1 of this report. National mood • Direction of the country. In 2015, 36.7% of respondents nationwide say their country is moving in the right direction, down from 54.7% in 2014. This represents the lowest level of optimism
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Page 4 and 5: AFGHANISTAN IN 2015 A Survey of the
Page 6 and 7: Afghanistan in 2015 6. POLITICAL PA
Page 8 and 9: Afghanistan in 2015 3.6 SELF-REPORT
Page 11 and 12: Afghanistan in 2015 Preface The Asi
Page 13: Afghanistan in 2015 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Page 17 and 18: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 This year, 74.9
Page 19 and 20: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 Governance •
Page 21 and 22: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 Political part
Page 23 and 24: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13 • Education.
Page 25 and 26: NATIONAL MOOD 15 1. NATIONAL MOOD E
Page 27 and 28: NATIONAL MOOD 17 rates of optimism
Page 29 and 30: NATIONAL MOOD 19 REASONS FOR RIGHT
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Page 39 and 40: NATIONAL MOOD 29 SELF-REPORTED HAPP
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Page 58 and 59: 48 Afghanistan in 2015 CONFIDENCE I
Page 60 and 61: 50 Afghanistan in 2015 SYMPATHY FOR
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3 Economic Growth and Employment EC
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ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT 57 P
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ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT 59 S
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ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT 61 S
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ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT 63 H
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ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT 65 o
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ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT 67 L
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ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT 69 3
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72 Afghanistan in 2015
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74 Afghanistan in 2015 fuels and so
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76 Afghanistan in 2015 SATISFACTION
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78 Afghanistan in 2015 SATISFACTION
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80 Afghanistan in 2015 reports havi
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82 Afghanistan in 2015 gotten bette
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84 Afghanistan in 2015 This year, t
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86 Afghanistan in 2015 health, gove
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88 Afghanistan in 2015 Since 2011,
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90 Afghanistan in 2015 4.6 Migratio
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94 Afghanistan in 2015 5.1 Satisfac
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96 Afghanistan in 2015 This year, t
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98 Afghanistan in 2015 PERCEPTION O
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100 Afghanistan in 2015 MUNICIPALIT
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102 Afghanistan in 2015 Q-58. (Ask
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104 Afghanistan in 2015 TYPES OF CA
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108 Afghanistan in 2015 6.1 Exercis
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110 Afghanistan in 2015 6.2 Ability
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112 Afghanistan in 2015 PERCEPTION
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114 Afghanistan in 2015 70% 60% 50%
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116 Afghanistan in 2015 to the 2014
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120 Afghanistan in 2015 D-7. How ma
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122 Afghanistan in 2015 SOURCE OF N
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124 Afghanistan in 2015 VIEWS ON HO
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126 Afghanistan in 2015 End Notes 1
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130 Afghanistan in 2015 Afghan wome
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132 Afghanistan in 2015 8.2 Customs
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134 Afghanistan in 2015 another par
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136 Afghanistan in 2015 of strong a
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138 Afghanistan in 2015 65% 63 62 W
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140 Afghanistan in 2015 to ethnicit
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142 Afghanistan in 2015 A private c
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144 Afghanistan in 2015 End Notes 1
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148 Afghanistan in 2015 the contact
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150 Afghanistan in 2015 during the
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152 Afghanistan in 2015 Figure 9.3
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154 Afghanistan in 2015 3. The “w
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156 Afghanistan in 2015 31 2.11 32
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158 Afghanistan in 2015 Reason 2008
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160 Afghanistan in 2015 set. Discre
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162 Afghanistan in 2015 9. Margin o
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166 Afghanistan in 2015 Sar-i-Pul 2
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APPENDIX 3: Interview Questionnaire
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APPENDIX 3: INTERVIEW QUESTIONNAIRE
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