Afghanistan in 2015 1

SECURITY 35
The percentage of residents who report some level of fear for personal safety is highest in the South
West (84.6%) and South East (81.1%) regions, where clashes with AOGs have been most frequent.
This prevalence of fear is similar to the rate of fear reported by residents of the country’s most insecure
areas (80.6%), who were surveyed through intercept interviews. Notably, there is significant variation
in both the rate and direction of level of fear across regions and individual provinces. The percentage
of residents in the South West region who reported some level of fear for personal safety increased by
more than 11 percentage points when compared to 2014, while the percentage of residents of the West
region who report some level of fear decreased by more than 10 percentage points (to 68.5%) during
the same period.
The provinces most likely to report some level of fear for personal safety are Wardak (96.2%), Logar
(90.6%), and Uruzghan (90.4%). For several years, these provinces have faced significantly higher
levels of violence and armed insurgency than other areas. Provinces least likely to report some level of
fear are Panjshir (7.2%), Bamyan (18.4%), and Badakhshan (21.7%). The Taliban maintain little to no
presence in Panjshir and Bamyan relative to other provinces. Both provinces are populated by ethnic
minority groups with little support for the Taliban. Bamyan consists primarily of Hazaras, 11 who were
persecuted under the Taliban regime. Panjshir and Badakhshan are primarily populated by Tajiks and
supportive of the Northern Alliance, a coalition of commanders opposed to the Taliban.
Among Afghanistan’s major ethnic groups, Pashtuns continue to be most likely to report experiencing
fear (77.3%), as violent attacks are more concentrated in predominantly Pashtun areas, particularly
along the border with Pakistan. This represents a significant increase from 2013, when 66.5% of
Pashtuns reported experiencing fear (either sometimes, often, or always). The corresponding level of
fear in 2015 among other ethnic groups is 65.3% for Uzbeks, 59.8% for Tajiks, and 58.3% for Hazaras.
Other demographic factors, including gender, education, marital status, and income also influence the
level of perceived safety. Women (71.8%) are more likely than men (62.4%) to report feeling some fear
for their personal safety. Afghans are significantly more likely to cite fear for personal safety if they have
more education, if they are married, and if their household income has declined relative to last year.
As expected, Afghans who report lower confidence in the ability of the ANSF to keep their district safe
are more likely to report some level of fear for personal safety. The same is true for respondents living
in regions with more frequent accidents from mines or unexploded devices. Reported fear for personal
safety also correlates strongly with the view that current negotiations with the Taliban are a bad idea,
and increased perception that ISIS poses a threat in the respondent’s district. 12
The survey asks Afghans to estimate how much fear they would experience when engaging in eight
specific situations or activities (Fig. 2.2). This year, the situations that provoke both the lowest and
highest rates of fear involve encountering different groups of armed forces. Afghans report experiencing
the highest rates of fear when they encounter the Taliban (92.0%), followed by Western forces (79.5%).
They report experiencing the lowest rates of fear when encountering the ANP (45.3%) or the ANA
(42.2%).