Afghanistan in 2015 1

30
Afghanistan in 2015
End Notes
1
Intercept interviews are a technique used to access volatile, insecure, and inaccessible districts. Afghans who live
in these districts are “intercepted” while traveling in a bazaar or district that is secure. Because this group cannot be
chosen using random household selection, it is distinguished from the main sample. Responses given during intercept
interviews are a valuable point of comparison because they indicate whether security has an impact on responses, and
in what direction. Intercept interviews were conducted in 25 provinces. Provinces with the highest use of intercepts
were Helmand (23.3% of the sample), Badghis (22.5%), Logar (20.2%), Ghor (20.6%), and Uruzghan (19.3%).
2
Probit regression was used to regress perceived direction of Afghanistan (q1) onto gender (d1), age (d2), urban/rural (m6b),
income (d18), education (d10), perception that election was free and fair (q46), perception that the current government
negotiation with Taliban is a good idea or a bad idea (q49), a confidence in ANP scale (alpha=0.8202), a confidence in ANA
scale (=0.843), a perception scale for whether the ANSF need foreign support (alpha=0.8316), a perception of corruption as
a problem scale (alpha=0.7697), a scale for fear when particiapting in different social and political activities (alpha=0.7713), a
confidence in formal and informal authorities scale (alpha=0.8945), self-reported happiness (d24), and a household wellbeing
scale (alpha=0.749). A 95% confidence level of was imposed for all coefficients in the model. The full model explained
11.45% of the variance in the perceived direction of the Afghanistan (R2=0.1145, LR chi2 (15)=973.90, p < 0.0001).
3
The bulleted text lists all reasons cited by more than 2 percent of total respondents.
4
The bulleted text lists all reasons cited by more than 2 percent of total respondents.
5
Household well-being is a scale (alpha= 0.749) that consists of question items q9a, q9b, q9c, q9d, q9e, q9f, q9g and q9h,
and measures the changes compared to last year in terms of the the household financial situation, employment opportunities,
the availability of products in the market, the quality of food in the household’s diet, the physical condition of the house/
dwelling, the health of family members, perceived change in electricity supply, and perceived change in access to schools.
6
Fear is a scale (alpha=0.7713) using questions q33a, q33b, q33c, q33d, q33e and q33g, which measures
the extent to which an Afghan says he or she experiences fear while voting, while participating in a peaceful
demonstration, while running for a public office (as a hypothetical, for most), while encountering ANA and
ANP, while traveling to another part of the country, and when encountering international forces.
7
Using OLS regression, reported happiness (d24) was regressed on gender (d1), age (d2), income (a composite of d18a
and d18b), education (d10), area of residence (i.e. urban / rural) (m6b), playing sport (d21), perception about direction of
the country (q1), television viewership (d8a), the household well-being scale (alpha=0.749), the confidence in ANA scale
(alpha=0.843), the confidence in ANP scale (alpha=0.8202), the experience of corruption scale (alpha=0.9023), and the
fear scale (alpha=0.7713). The model was weighted by province and urban/rural strata, and excluded intercept interviews.
The full model explained 12.9% of variance in how happy Afghans feel (R2=0.129, F(13,6400)=63.89, p