Up & Coming Geoscientists - a sample of our AIG Honours Bursary Recipients

The Fold Experiment - Geologists Bias
I became a contrarian because of that
simple statement I overheard at a party when
I was a grad student nearly 30 years ago. A
contrarian consciously determines what the
majority are doing or thinking (this is not as
easy as it sounds), and then thinks exactly the
opposite to seek out untapped opportunities.
Fifteen years ago, I came up with the
Leapfrog software concept, which is now
regarded as mainstream mining/exploration
software, but back in 2001 I was completely
alone in thinking that 3D interpolation could
replace traditional sectional digitisation. In
my mind, I could visualise this happening.
However, most geologists, including many of
way herds behave. Herds rarely head off in
a direction unprompted, unless they see a
substantial number of animals heading that
way. Herds are not easily led by a delusional
lone animal.
But as a contrarian thinker, I soon realised
that actively thinking the opposite can present
untapped business opportunities because of the
complete lack of competition. A lone sheep can
come across vast green pastures where there
are no other sheep to compete with.
However, profound changes that go against
the herd mentality do not happen overnight—it
took many years for the mining industry to see
the value of Leapfrog software, and even now,
my experiment and ask an unsuspecting
geologist the fold question:
“Imagine a single fold profile. Do you see a
synform or an antiform?”
This post (modified from the original The
System), and many more like this, can be
found on the Orefind website. Dr Jun Cowan
is a structural geologist and a co-director of
Orefind along with fellow structural geologist
Dr Brett Davis. Orefind’s mission is to make
a material difference to mining operations,
exploration companies and to investors.
We achieve this through the investigation
of structural geology at all scales and in the
quickest possible time.
my work colleagues, and, without exception,
most geologists who use it don’t realise how
all the mining software companies I talked to,
powerful it is.
thought the idea was a bit loopy. The hardest
There are many untapped business
sell was to mining consulting companies, and
opportunities in the mining industry that are
in the early years I never achieved long-term
the direct consequence of human bias (which
sales to any of the consulting companies.
I will cover in future posts), but before you can
It is ironic to see consultants who rejected
see these opportunities, you must become
the software back then are now singing the
aware that geologists are highly biased. If
praises of Leapfrog software, but that is the
you don’t believe me, I dare you to try out
Acknowledgement
Dr Stefan Revets for discussions and help with the statistics in the original 1998 UWA study.
References
Chadwick, P.K., 1975, A psychological analysis of observation in geology. Nature 256, p. 570-573.
Chadwick, P.K., 1982, “Earth-boundness” in geological observation. Geology Teaching – Journal of the Association of Teachers of Geology, 7(1), p. 16-22.
Sliver, N., 2012, The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction. Penguin Books, London.
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AIG NEWS Issue 123 · February 2016