Corridor Calculus

Corridor Calculus : China Pakistan Economic Corridor & China's Comprador Investment Model in Pakistan
the shortest route to the Middle-East but also replace the dangerous
263
maritime route. After the announcement of CPEC, Pakistanis came up
with their own ridiculous 'cost-benefit analysis' of how much China stood to
gain through the economic corridor. According to one analysis, China could
use Gwadar for not only routing its west (of China) bound containerised
trade (about 50% of its total containerised trade), but also save around $2
billion annually if even 50% of the Chinese oil imports went through the
264
Pakistani port. The Chinese media, which essentially and blindly toes the
official line, was also talking of Gwadar becoming 'a potentially vital link in
China's supply chain' by reducing the distance that oil and gas imports from
265
Africa and the Middle-East had to travel.
The Dilemma's Here to Stay
Most of these 'analyses' are, however, more wishful thinking than based on
realism and even if a pipeline and a railroad were to be built linking Gwadar
with Kashgar — they aren't anywhere close to being built anytime in the
foreseeable future — it wouldn't rid China of its Malacca Dilemma.
In the first few months of 2015, China's total oil imports were over 7 million
266
barrels per day (bbl/d). Around 80% of these were routed through the
Malacca Straits. Over the years, China has tried to build pipelines to reduce
its dependence on the Malacca route. But the three main oil pipelines —
Kazakhstan, Russia and Myanmar — currently supply only around 1.1
million bbl/d. Even after the Russian pipeline capacity is doubled to 6,00,000
bbl/d, the total pipeline supply of oil will be just around 1.5 million bbl/d out
267
of over 7 million bbl/d of imports. Assuming a pipeline can be built from
Gwadar, unless it can pump around 3 million bbl/d, it cannot take care of
50% of oil imports through Malacca. Even a pipeline with a huge capacity of
263
Li Xiguang, 'Pakistan can be China's bridge to the Gulf', Global Times 14/12/2010, accessed at
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/601390.shtml
264
Ali Salman, 'Pakistan-China Economic Corridor: a cost-benefit analysis', Express Tribune 03/05/2015, accessed at
http://tribune.com.pk/story/880259/pakistan-china-economic-corridor-a-cost-benefit-analysis/
265
'Backgrounder: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor', China Daily 22/04/2015, accessed at
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2015xivisitpse/2015-04/22/content_20503693.htm
266
'China: International energy and data analysis', US Energy Information Administration, 14/05/2015, pp 10, accessed at
http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis_includes/countries_long/China/china.pdf
267
Ibid. (pp 11)
65