Research Institute

Global wealth
in 2020
Despite the slowing momentum of recent years,
we expect that wealth growth will pick up by the
end of the decade, reaching USD 345 trillion by
mid-2020, 38% higher than in 2015. The number
of millionaires will grow to 49.3 million adults,
while the middle segment of wealth holders will
exceed 1.3 billion adults, 40.3% of whom will
be from China.
Wealth and the global economy
The global economy is in its sixth consecutive year
of real GDP growth above 3%, underpinned by still
rapid – albeit decelerating – growth in some large
emerging markets and a boost in the growth rate of
some developed economies, in particular Europe.
Monetary policy is beginning to diverge, with the
Fed likely entering a gradual tightening path, while
elsewhere central banks are easing or staying put.
This explains to some extent the relative changes in
wealth over the last year. Going forward, we expect
the global economy to accelerate slightly, with the
Chinese economy stabilizing as it makes a transition
towards consumption and services.
Against this backdrop, wealth is set to continue
its upward trajectory and could grow at an annual
rate of 6.6% (including inflation), reaching USD
345 trillion in 2020. This is below last year’s
projection of 7%, but not outside historical norms.
Between 2000 and 2007, wealth grew at a
sizeable pace of 9.4%. Following the financial
crisis of 2008, its pace has admittedly been tepid
(just 4.3% annually), but this is in large part due to
the strong dollar that has been appreciating at an
annual pace of more than 1% versus other curren-
cies (weighted according to wealth). To put this in
context, wealth is currently at USD 250.1 trillion,
336% the projected global GDP for 2015 (which
the IMF estimates at USD 74.6 trillion) and it could
rise to 352% of GDP by 2020 (forecast at USD
98.1 trillion), approximately in line with its 15-year
average of 349%.
Healthy growth for rich economies
The global economic outlook is weaker than
previously expected, and this leads us to revise our
projections downwards. The United States will
remain the undisputed leader with wealth nearing
USD 113 trillion, but its share will decline somewhat
to a third of the global total. Wealth growth in
Europe will likely outpace the growth rate of the
United States in the next five years, but the regional
total will still fall short of the United States. It is
noteworthy that the region exceeded the United
States for a large part of the last 15 years, but
fell behind following the strong US recovery during
the post-crisis years.
Among high-income countries, Switzerland will
likely retain its spot as the world’s number one in
terms of wealth per adult, followed by New Zealand.
40 Global Wealth Report 2015