World Energy Resources | 2016

TIT WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | OIL
LE OF DOCUMENT
Crude Oil Prices
The price of oil has been a crucial factor of global economic growth. Oxford Economics has
calculated that a US$20 fall 15 in oil price results in a 0.4% global growth over the next 2-3
years. The same has been estimated by the IMF and has been seen in the past.
According to US Energy Information Administration 16 , Brent crude oil spot prices decreased
by US$7/b in January to a monthly average of US$31/b, the lowest monthly average price
since December 2003. Ongoing growth in global oil inventories and uncertainty over future
global demand growth continued to put downward pressure on oil prices during January.
After growing by an estimated 1.8 mb/d in 2015, global oil inventories are forecast to grow by
1.4 mb/d in the first quarter of 2016.
There are of course a wide range of price predictions that continue to be made; e.g. the
prediction from Wood Mackenzie is that in the next 5-10 years Brent will reach 80-90
US$/bbl, as there is not enough 50 US$/bbl oil in the world to balance the market. 17
15 Giles (2014)
16
Short-Term Energy Outlook (April 2016)
17 Wood Mackenzie
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