World Energy Resources | 2016

WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | NATURAL G AS
TABLE 5: TOTAL NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION IN 2014 AND 2040 (NEW
POLICIES SCENARIO)
Country 2014 Production (bcm) Projected 2040 Production
(bcm)
US 728.3 863
Australia 55.3 175
China 134.5 356
Argentina 39.4 111
Saudi Arabia 108.2 143
Mexico 58.1 125
Algeria 83.3 116
Source: BP (2015) Statistical Review of World Energy and IEA (2015) World Energy Outlook
DEMAND
Globally, estimates for natural gas demand growth have been revised down and range from
1.6% to 1.9% growth p.a. to 2040. Still, the share of natural gas in global primary energy
demand is expected to rise from 21% in 2013 to 22% in 2020 and 24% in 2040 under the
IEA’s New Policies Scenario.
In Europe, future natural gas demand is expected to slow due to growing efficiencies in
energy consumption, declining population, security concerns as well as competition from
coal and subsidised renewable generation. As a result, little to no natural gas demand
growth is expected in the EU out to 2040. The Eastern Europe and Eurasia region is the
only region in the world where natural gas’s share of primary energy demand is projected to
decline from 2013 to 2040.
In Asia, economic growth appears to be slowing more quickly than previously forecasted. A
slowdown in the region’s economic growth is resulting in reduced projections for overall
energy demand and consequently for natural gas demand. However, the region is still
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