16-10-15 POLL POOP

POLL POOP – A DIVE BELOW THE HEADLINES 10/15/2016
TAKING ON THE BIG DOG – FOX NEWS POLL
I thought when I opened the latest Fox News Poll and took the poop plunge that I would be disappointed and come
out Ivory clean. You’ll be surprised.
Here’s the “POOP DIVE”:
1) I will give this poll credit for one item. This is an assumption on my part because it’s not clearly spelled out
in the methodoly, but I think they derived their “likely voter” category based on the first poll question
instead of relying on the fact that the respondents voted in 2012. That’s the only thing I can think of and
that’s a stretch. The only time numbers are mentioned that define the size of the sample are in the opening.
There the Fox guys tell us that there were 1006 registered voters from which 917 likely voters were
determined. Other than that number count, the Fox News guruskis go to percentages (%) for the rest of
their 62 page report. It’s my opinion, but this is the way they play it – let’s load ‘em up with 62 pages of
BS, don’t give ‘em a body count to justify our percentages and just tell ‘em “Trust Us”. Sounds like a
Democratic talking point.
This plays into the next two parts of the dive.
2) The male/female count. Nowhere to be found. Because gender split has been such an issue, why would
anyone want to trust this poll.
3) Party affiliation. There is no published count that breaks down the 917 ‘likely voters’ party affiliation. The
only way I found to do that is by looking at the poll’s “Political Identification” info on Page 22 of 62 where
they ask the question “When you think about politics, do you think of yourself as a Democrat or a
Republican?”
Here’s where the real smell is. These responses are from the ‘likely voter’ column for that question:
Respondents for only the 2 major parties this poll: Dem 45% Republicans 36%
Respondents for only the 2 major parties last week’s poll: Dem 41% Republicans 39%
Three weeks before 2012 election the numbers were 42/37, 40/39 and 41/38.
IS THE WINDMILL LEANING LEFT THIS WEEK?
So let’s dive and take this apart. Between last week and this week in a four way race, which it should end
up being, Clinton went from 44% to 45% and Trump went from 42% to 38%. Clinton goes +1 and Trump
goes -3. Where’d Trumps’ 2% end up?
How about separation? Clinton by 2 last week and Clinton by 7 this poll. That’s a 5 point jump. Look back
where I have the respondents %’s for this poll and last week. Last week the respondent’s party difference
separation was 2%. This week that jumps to 9%. Based on stories I’ve been reading there aren’t too
many undecided voters left so how does Fox News justify the headline for this poll when there is a
+7% change in favor of the Democrat candidate as to which party affiliation respondents have within
the poll itself. The final, published numbers only change +5% from last week.
DOES FOX NEWS MATH AND LOGIC WORK FOR ANYONE?

I’m using my slide rule along with a very, very strong assumption that if you said you were Democrat in
this poll, you were committed to your candidate. Then, if those respondents who ID’d themselves as
Democrats goes up by 7% and the Clinton lead only goes up by 5%, there’s a minus 2 differential there.
Apply that to last week’s poll results – Clinton 44%, Trump 42% - and this week’s poll results would be
more like an even race and the published headline changes.
Correct me if I’m wrong.
In summary, this is why this poll is biased. The problem with
disseminating this false data in the form of a blaring but untrue
headline is the effect on decisions being made by “LIV’s” (Low
Information Voters).
Please forward this to your family and friends and ask them to bring up the crooked polling and back it up with facts
when they have the opportunity to discuss the upcoming election with a reasonable individual. There’s a problem
there too. When I try to have a reasonable discussion with a Democrat, it takes about 5-10 words before the
“Trump” word is spoken by them followed by a rant and a refusal to talk reasonably and discuss facts.
Be strong in your position