16-10-16 POLL POOP A Sunday Funny

POLL POOP – A SUNDAY FUNNY 10/16/2016
I went back to something I saw while browsing this past week and figured what better way to
start a new week than to have a good laugh.
I saw an Ohio poll called the Baldwin Wallace CRI Poll. The poll was released by Baldwin
Wallace University in Berea, Ohio according to the news by cleveland.com.
The head to head matchup between Trump and Clinton only is published as “Clinton 48%,
Trump 37%, 14% Unsure”. This poll has Clinton with an 11 point lead. All I took the time to do
is look at the background surrounding these numbers, not all the other end results that were
published.
This poll had 1157 respondents according to news articles. It was an Ohio only poll. It was
published on October 12 th . I give this poll credit for the breakdown of party affiliation (see chart
from poll below) and for the way they determined “likely voters”. This poll is heavily weighted
towards the 35-54 age group and those with a 4-year college degree.
The poll came pretty close on gender split (see the chart below). I argue that a gender split that’s
not 50/50 in any poll this election is another area of bias because of the way the male/female
demographics are heavily leaning as opposed to any prior election. Assume a majority of women
vote based on the women issue which the Democratic Party has made a primary issue. Take the

poll split shown in the chart below to a 50/50 split and the Republican candidate picks up +2 and
the Democratic candidate drops -2. That’s a 4 point differential, taking a 10-11 point lead down
to a 6-7 point lead. Folks don’t think the gender split is a big deal. I disagree.
SORRY ABOUT THOSE OTHER FACTS – HERE’S THE SUNDAY FUNNY
The poll data that was published to back up this polls’ findings has two consecutive pages that
deal with determining the final percentages – Clinton 48%, Trump 37%, Unsure 14% (see the
following chart from the poll).

Here’s the page that follows.
This is the “gathering” of poll info, or so I assume, from which the final percentages were
determined and how the individual responses were tabulated to get to the final results.
On the far left, 2 nd box down deals with gender. Go back up to the gender chart the poll provided.
There were a total of 1157 respondents. 558 were male and 599 were female according to that
chart. Using the gender breakdown figures above the total of all male respondents was 516
(where I have a box labeled “A”). Looking at the total of all female respondents, that number is
643 (where I have a box labeled “B”).
Using the info in the tabulation chart, we now have 1159 respondents. Who the hell are the other
2?
Also, according to the tabulation chart, approximately 40+ respondents are transgender
individuals who got up that morning and felt like being female. So which male/female gender
split is correct? Was it the one in the earlier chart that shows a 4 point differential? Or was
it the gender split that is shown in the tabulation chart above? Using the gender info in the
tabulation chart, the male/female percentage difference becomes a 56/44 split in favor of
the female vote.

SOME FUNNY ASIDES THAT SPUN OUT OF THIS POLL
This poll was conducted on 10/10 and 10/11 following the 2 nd Presidential debate on 10/9. One
question asked if respondents watched the debate so the poll could delve into debate questions
with respondents who actually watched it. Believe this or not – 2 respondents couldn’t remember
if they saw the debate less than 2 days ago. Are you kiddin’ me!
I read a couple of cover stories about this poll. They are all filled with the usual BS which I talk
about in another of my earlier posts. Then I find this and wonder “how stupid are these media
types.” In a story on a site called Daily Kos, some dude named teacherken tries to enlighten us.
He’s trying to teach Math and the fine art of polling today. Here’s his quote:
Demographics of the poll
M 48.2 F 51.8 possibly a bit heavy on male
A bit heavy on the male – come on, pay attention. This is one of the reasons folks like me
criticize these polls and the spin the media puts out.
THE SUNDAY FUNNIES ARE THE POLLSTERS AND THE
MEDIA.