16-10-18 POLL POOP - CBS POLL

POLL POOP – A DIVE BELOW THE HEADLINES 10/18/2016
CBS POLL – WHAT ARE THEY HIDING
The latest CBS poll showing a Clinton 9 point advantage was published yesterday and covered
data responses between 10/12 and 10/16. The results show a 50/41 advantage based on a poll
question asked of “Likely Voters Including Leaners”. Remember this for something later on.
The published backup for this poll is pretty slim. It’s apparent that there were up to 51 poll
questions but CBS has chosen to publish pertinent data on only some of the questions. In my
opinion, these are the questions needed to drive the narrative and make the requisite headline
which was the goal to begin with. The published data, poll questions and responses giving
answers in percentages, begin with the first data point starting with “q3/4”. There’s a “q6/7” and
some others scattered up to “q51”. CBS has chosen to publish responses to only 11 of at least 51
or more poll questions. Hiding something?
There’s no way to determine gender split for this poll. Ethnicity is not addressed.
Party affiliation for “weighted” likely voters is given in the tabulations in “q51” (Question
51?) noted above. The answers to that question also lead me to suspiciously ask how this poll
starts with 1411 unweighted respondents, goes down to 1189 unweighted registered voters (I get
how they cull the count for this) - then they take 1189 unweighted registered down to 1092
‘weighted’ registered voters - then the ‘weighted’ registered voters drops to 778 ‘weighted’
likely voters.
The published news article leads you to believe the poll is based on the results
from the 1189 registered voters when it’s not. Is that what one could consider a
bias? Remember what I opened with, in the limited published data the answer to
the first question in that published data was based on “likely voters” (that’s the
778 count) not registered voters (the 1189 count the story wants to make you
believe – not that the number itself matters, it’s the blatant deception).
In the poll’s methodology I found the 2 statements below:
The sample of likely voters is modeled among registered voters (N=1,189), assigning
each respondent a probability of voting based on their responses.
The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables

Regarding modeling of a sample of registered voters as stated above, what determined the
probability of voting? What U.S. Census figures are being used to weight data?
The poll answers to “q51” in the tabulation provided in the limited published data broke out the
various counts that made up the totals (1189, 1092 and 778) by party affiliation. The count they
gave was a body count and I calculated the percentages (%) shown below.
Unweighted Reg Voters (1,189) Unweighted Reg Voters (1,092) Weighted Likely Voters (778)
From Poll Calculated From Poll Calculated From Poll Calculated
(R) 381 32.0% (R) 353 32.3% (R) 254 32.6%
(D) 401 33.7% (D) 366 33.5% (D) 282 36.2%
(I) 407 34.2% (I) 373 34.2% (I) 242 31.1%
It makes a simple guy like me wonder how these machinations take place. It may not seem like
much, but looking at the Democrat and Republican respondents by total percentage, getting from
an unweighted Democrat registered voter to a participant in the final round up as a weighted
Democrat likely voter, favored the Democrats.
I feel like I dove deep enough and uncovered another tidbit – weighted data, when properly
applied to the appropriate modeled sample is being manipulated to give a Democratic
advantage. If weighted data was to yield unbiased results then how did the Independents
take a deeper number dive reflected by %’s at the expense of the Democrats? I’m assuming
the pollsters had all responses from the 1189 registered voters when the culling began.
What part of what answer that a Democrat gave to a question did Pollster Joe Democrat
like more than the Independent’s answer? OPEN TO BIAS ANYONE?
In summary, this is why the ‘CBS Poll’ is biased. The problem with
disseminating this false data in the form of a blaring but untrue
headline is the effect on decisions being made by “LIV’s” (Low
Information Voters).
Please forward this to your family and friends and ask them to bring up the crooked polling and
back it up with facts when they have the opportunity to discuss the upcoming election with a
reasonable individual. There’s a problem there too. When I try to have a reasonable discussion
with a Democrat, it takes about 5-10 words before the “Trump” word is spoken by them
followed by a rant and a refusal to talk reasonably and discuss facts.
Be strong in your position.