e_Paper 7-11-2016

Opinion 21
DT
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2016
Up in the air
With Hillary, Obama’s legacy lives, and with Trump, it dies
LETTER
FROM
AMERICA
• Fakhruddin Ahmed
It is hard to tell whether we are
experiencing the calm before
the storm, or the storm before
the calm.
With only a day to go before
the election, the presidential
candidates and their surrogates
are crisscrossing the battleground
states at breakneck pace, and
bombarding the air waves and TV
screens with relentless negative
ads.
A race Hillary Clinton led by a
comfortable 6 points pre-Comey
letter,has morphed into a tossup
post-Comey. Clinton’s current
2-point lead has dispatched her
chances into the margin-of-error
territory.
People are wondering if destiny
is on Trump’s side. On August
22, Time magazine put Trump
on its cover with the caption:
“Meltdown.” On October 24, Time
did it again, this time with a more
definitive: “Total Meltdown.”
Didn’t quite happen that way,
did it? It is not only the world’s
premier weekly that got the Trump
phenomenon wrong, just about
everyone else did.
Since we cannot interview
“destiny” to ascertain her
intentions, let us try and divine
ourselves what has happened, and
is likely to happen.
Providence did come to
Trump’s aid anytime he was in
danger of being blown away. The
first rescue was after the two
party’s national conventions in
July.
The Republican convention was
erratic, and Trump’s acceptance
speech dark. Democratic
convention was flawless, and
Hillary’s speech inspiring. Hillary
raced to a 89% chance of victory
according to Nate Silver by August
14. Hence, Time’s first cover.
Then the Russians hacked
into the Democratic Party’s and
Clinton’s campaign manager’s
websites, and WikiLeaks began
releasing unsavory information.
By September 26, the contest
was even. The presidential debates
(September 26, October 9, October
19) which Clinton won handily,
and the release of the Access
Hollywood recording on October
7, sent Trump’s campaign into
another tailspin. Clinton’s chances
soared to 88% by October 17,
resulting in Time’s second cover
predicting Trump’s imminent
doom.
With the Access Hollywood tape
and Trump’s poor performances
in the debates receding in the rear
view mirror, the race settled into
a comfortable 6 to 7 point national
lead for Clinton. It appeared
that Clinton would coast to a
comfortable 350-Electoral College
vote victory.
On October 26, Trump
surrogate, former New York City
Mayor Rudy Giuliani, boasted on
Fox News that an imminent event
was going to shake up the election
campaign and turn the election in
Trump’s favour, adding that even
“liberal polls” will show its impact.
Two days later, on October 28,
came the bombshell in the form
of a letter from FBI Director James
Comey to Congress, informing
them that new emails have been
found that could be “pertinent”
to the Clinton email investigation
that the FBI had concluded in July.
The director’s cryptic, Clintonincriminating
letter omitted
several exculpatory facts:
1. The emails were not found on
Hillary Clinton’s computer, but on
the laptop her aide, Huma Abedin
shared with her former husband,
Anthony Weiner.
2. The director had not read any
of the emails, and therefore, did
not know if they were pertinent to
the email investigation.
3. Since the FBI had no idea
about the content of the emails,
no voter, or Trump campaign
official, should assume that there
is anything incriminatory about
Clinton in the emails.
Republicans and Democrats
beseeched Mr Comey to explain
his letter. Harvard law Professor
Alan Dershowitz even composed
a short letter that Comey could
use that would be fair. He and
Republican Professor David
Gergen of Harvard’s Kennedy
School, among thousands of
others, warned Mr Comey that
his silence was unacceptable --
because it would harm Clinton,
and help Trump.
As Comey remained silent, the
Trump campaign seized upon his
Which way will America swing on November 8?
Anyone who deliberately attempted to sway the election though
misinformation will go down in history as a villain as vile as the
Revolutionary war traitor Benedict Arnold
letter to paint Hillary as a criminalin-waiting.
They are running ads
saying that America must not
elect someone president who will
be indicted for crimes after the
election.
When Rudy Giuliani was
a federal prosecutor in New
York, James Comey was his
subordinate. In a radio interview,
Giuliani bragged that he had
received information about the
“bombshell” from retired and
active FBI agents.
Democrats are pointing out
that the FBI is dominated by white
males, the only segment of the
population Clinton is not winning.
No one is accusing Mr Comey of
personally leaking the information
about the “bombshell” to Mr
Giuliani.
But, as its director, he is
responsible for any leak emanating
from the FBI that could swing the
election.
Currently, the Democrats are
focused on winning the election.
Win or lose, after the election,
Democrats will focus on the FBI
leaks that attempted to tamper
with the will of the American
people. They will get to the bottom
of this. Anyone who deliberately
attempted to sway the election
through misinformation will go
down in history as a villain as vile
as the Revolutionary war traitor
Benedict Arnold, and Aaron Burr,
the man who shot Alexander
Hamilton.
Trump supporters have
demonstrated that his perjury,
racism, bigotry, misogyny,
debauchery, and xenophobia do
not matter to them whatsoever.
The Comey letter is their latest
excuse to come home and vote
for the Republican candidate,
regardless of how obnoxious he is.
Thanks to them, America will elect
the president it deserves.
America’s is not a national
election; it is a state by state
election.
Post-Comey, state races have
tightened considerably. Polling is
unreliable at this stage because
early voting has been taking place
for the last few weeks in many
states.
Thirty four states allow noexcuse
early voting. Three states
allow voting by mail. In only five
states, voting takes place only
on election day. It is in three of
these states -- New Hampshire,
Michigan, and Pennsylvania -- the
polls are tightening the most, and
Trump is spending most of his
time.
Pennsylvania is so critical to
Clinton’s chances that she and
President Obama will make a joint
appearance at her campaign finale
in Philadelphia on election eve.
One major concern for the
Clinton campaign is the lack of
African-American enthusiasm
for early voting, which is down
8% from 2012. Young African
Americans have not forgiven
President Bill (and Hillary) Clinton
for enacting the 1994 Crime
Bill that has resulted in mass
incarceration of blacks for petty
crimes and minor drug offences.
The Clintons have since
apologised for the bill.
President Obama is
campaigning his heart out for
Hillary, and attempting to energise
African-Americans by reminding
them that his legacy is on the line:
With Hillary, his legacy lives; with
Trump, it dies.
According to Nate Silver, as
of writing, Clinton has a 65.8%
chance of victory, with 293
Electoral College votes. The
chances of Democrats regaining
Senate control is 50.2%.
Prediction of turmoil in the
election’s aftermath is overblown.
America loves a winner. The
loser is quickly forgotten. Electoral
College is predicated on the
winner taking all.
George W Bush won only 537
more votes than Al Gore in Florida
in 2000, but won 100% of the
Electoral College votes.
If Donald Trump loses, he will
huff and puff, but, nobody will listen
to the loser Trump anymore. •
Dr Fakhruddin Ahmed is a Rhodes
Scholar.
REUTERS