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NFL ANALYSIS AND PICKS WELL, THE RAIDERS COMING TO TOWN MIGHT PERK YOU UP JUST A LITTLE, AS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN FOREVER OAKLAND IS ACTUALLY PLAYING MEANINGFUL GAMES IN DECEMBER AND GUESS WHAT, YOU HAVE A CHANCE TO TOSS A FEW ROCKS INTO THEIR WINDSHIELD. New England at Denver Line: Patriots -3.5 Over/Under: 44 Set-up: We don’t expect another meltdown for the Patriots at Mile High, as happened last year in the AFC Championship game, but payback for that last trip to Denver isn’t going to be easy for New England. Yes, the Broncos’ run defense has suddenly sagged, but their pass D remains top-notch and they can get on the QB – pressure is mandatory if you’re going to disrupt Brady. See what they did in that playoff game last January for evidence. Denver’s offense will be fine vs. the New England D. That’s not the concern. The issue as always when facing New England is slowing down their offense. We’re betting the Broncos will do enough defensively to give their team a shot. Suggested Play: Like the Broncos as a home dog Oakland at San Diego Line: Raiders -3 Over/Under: 49.5 Set-up: There really isn’t much left to cheer about if you’re a Charger fan. Your team is out playoff contention and packing up to leave town. So why bother? Well, the Raiders coming to town might perk you up just a little, as for the first time in forever Oakland is actually playing meaningful games in December and guess what, you have a chance to toss a few rocks into their windshield. Tripping up Oakland could be a salve for all the nagging wounds that come with being a San Diego supporter. The thing is, the stadium will likely be three quarters silver and black, as Raider-fan shows up to represent. Hardly much of a home field advantage. Carr’s thumb bothered him last week, but in the warm Southern California sun, it shouldn’t be an issue. With All-Pro guard Osemele back, we don’t see San Diego generating pressure without blitzing, which will open up shots for the passing game. Amari Cooper could be in for a big day. Look for Khalil Mack to be in Rivers grill all day when SD has the ball. When that happens, Rivers is usually good for a few killer mistakes. Suggested Play: Take the Raiders Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Line: Steelers -3.5 Over/Under: 44 Set-up: Le’Veon Bell went off last week and is going to get his yards again this week. We get that. Yet, we like the home underdog in this matchup. Andy Dalton is playing well and while of course they miss AJ Green and Gio Bernard, the offense, and their entire team have played well the last couple of weeks. They’ll be motivated vs. a bitter division rival and in what we think could be a low-scoring affair, we’ll take the points. Suggested Play: Take the Bengals Carolina at Washington Line: Redskins -6.5 Over/Under: 51 Set-up: Things obviously aren’t right in Carolina, as they flounder after that magical run last season. Some will point to the departure of Josh Norman, who will line up on the other side of the field Monday night, some will point to the Super Bowl hangover effect, but whatever it was, this has been a lost season. But they’re still playing hard down the stretch, playing with pride and this is a talented squad. For a team a long way out of the playoff picture, they’re not a team any team with playoff hopes wants to see the last few weeks. The Washington passing game does cause issues when looking at the matchups. The secondary is a concern, but the Panthers are getting healthier and should have a plan to take the top of DeSean Jackson’s route tree. we like Cam Newton to lead the team to a very strong Monday night showing. Suggested Play: We like the Panthers Best Bet Record: 7-1 against the spread Season Record: 40-31-3 against the spread 10
TOTALLY COVERED NFL WEEK 15 OVER/UNDER REPORT by Jarvis Simes There are so many ‘big picture’ things to consider when handicapping football games at this time of year. Playoff aspirations, season win totals and other futures, coaches on the hot seat, divisional revenge — And this is on top of all the stuff you already take into account such as stats, travel, systems, etc. In a way it’s like the first month of the season, when you’re looking at ‘Week 2 home openers’ or a head coach’s September record, but the glaring difference here is that now you truly know the teams. One thing I noticed on Monday while having a second look through the Ravens - Patriots game is that the angle we discussed in last week’s issue, ‘Home faves in the mid-40’s’, went 3-0 to the “Under”. Baltimore and New England went over so that went against the trend, but the updated record for this late-season profile is 32-54 O/U, or 63-percent. Three other games were initially “live” last week when I wrote the first draft of Totally Covered on Tuesday, but either the ATS line flip-flopped (Arizona at Miami), or the total moved out of the range (Jets-Niners, Bears-Lions). Those three games went 1-2 O/U but don’t count towards the overall system record. The three games to circle this week are Titans at Chiefs, Colts at Vikings and Kansas City’s home record since Andy Reid took over the team is 3 overs and 18 unders against any team that allows more than 60-percent completions Bucs at Cowboys. Remember, this is just one small piece of the puzzle. It’s an angle that has produced a winning angle for “Under” bettors in five consecutive years but be sure and use due diligence when looking at these or any other games from this huge card. Good luck this week. Los Angeles at Seattle Over/Under: 38.5 John Fassel takes over for Jeff Fisher and his first test is in Seattle against a team that was just ripped for 38 points. Big home faves off a road fave loss where they were blown out have played 7 overs, 1 under and a push in recent years. Miami at New York Jets Over/Under: 38 When playing at home off back-toback games where they lost the turn- over battle, New York has a record of 21 overs and 6 unders. Detroit at New York Giants Over/Under: 41.5 HC Jim Caldwell’s road record since taking over the Lions is 5 overs and 16 unders. Note that three of those overs took place in the month of September, too. Philadelphia at Baltimore Over/Under: 41 Carson Wentz beat the Bears in Chicago Week 2 and since then, he’s 0-6 SU/ATS on the road with 5 overs and 1 under. The Eagles have been outscored 28-20 in those six losses. Green Bay at Chicago Over/Under: 40.5 Road faves that have held their opponent to less than 20 points in three consecutive weeks are a 59-percent 11
Page 1 and 2: WINFODec. 15-21, 2016 Issue #15 Ale
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Page 5 and 6: WINE AND WHINING WINE &WHINING by N
Page 7 and 8: NFL ANALYSIS AND PICKS NFL ANALYSIS
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Page 15 and 16: NHL GAME PICKS AND ANALYSIS SABRES
Page 17 and 18: FUTURES FORAY NFL REGULAR SEASON MV

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