WINFO Magazine

FUTURES FORAY
NFL REGULAR SEASON MVP
This season, more than most it
seems, has offered surprises at
every turn. Not only with teams
rising to the challenge or playing inconsistently
in any given week, but also
with players performing likewise. Given
this reality, there isn’t really an obvious
MVP candidate this year.
Let’s take a look at the handful of
favorites and attempt to come up with
a reasonable combination of favorable
odds and the likelihood of cashing a
winner.
Tom Brady +150
The odds on favorite, however, +150
isn’t enough to compel me to place this
bet. Yes, he’s had another Tom Brady
season at the ripe old age of 39, and
without many of his usual weapons
with Gronk, Dion Lewis, Edelman et al
missing significant parts of the season.
I think the four-game suspension to
start the season is held against him by
the voters.
Ezekiel Elliott +400
A standout campaign for the rookie
RB, although it doesn’t look like he’s
going to reach Eric Dickerson’s rookie
rushing record, which was a possibility
earlier in the season. My hesitation
with Elliott winning is threefold: he’s
playing behind a Pro Bowl offensive
line, he’s a rookie, and he’s not a QB.
I’ll look elsewhere.
Matt Ryan +600
A surprise entry here for some, but
Matty Ice has been on fire this season
leading the #1 scoring offense in the
league and boasting a season-long
113 QB rating. Pretty ridiculous. We
might have something here.
Matt Stafford +700 / Derek
Carr +800
Stafford is being hailed as Mr. Clutch
this year, with eight, 4th quarter comeback
wins already this season. The
counter argument is that his team is
mediocre enough to be behind late in
games, unlike the Falcons who blow
out many of their opponents. Carr has
a similar profile to Stafford. Numerous
come from behind wins, but also
inconsistent at times, particularly as of
late. Can’t say I feel great about either
winning the MVP.
Aaron Rodgers +900
Just when I was ready to count him
and the Packers out, he rallies the
team.
R-E-L-A-X right? I should have
known. He was really inconsistent
to start the year, but if recency bias
sways the voting, he’s a strong candidate
for the award.
I’ve hit an impasse. Ryan at +600
or Rodgers at +900, I can’t decide.
But this doesn’t surprise, as with no
obvious candidate to win the award,
you would expect some indecision.
With the proverbial gun to head, I lean
Ryan but another option is placing a
half unit on each gunslinger.
Just an update on last week’s article
where we suggested betting YES, on
the Browns going winless this season.
If you pulled the trigger and got +130
odds (bet $100 to win $130) congratulations!
Making the same bet today is
-185 (bet $185 to win $100).
THE FALCONS HAVE
THE #1 SCORING
OFFENCE IN THE
LEAGUE.
Matty Ice has been
on fire all season!
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