WINFO Magazine

NFL ANALYSIS AND PICKS
Tennessee at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs -5.5
Over/Under: 42
Set-up: The Titans and the Chiefs
kind of do the same thing - Kansas
City just does it better. And when
you add in this weird development in
which Andy Reid is letting Alex Smith
go downfield, it adds another element
that has been working. KC are very
tough to beat at home (I think the
last time I wrote that the Buccaneers
stuffed it in my face a few days later),
however winning and covering have
been two entirely different things for
the Chiefs. We like Tennessee and
watch for the battle between Taylor
Lewan and Justin Houston - we see
Lewan winning that one. But even
with that, we’re more comfortable
siding with a home team we have
winning the game.
Suggested Play: Take the Chiefs
Jacksonville at Houston
Line: Texans -5.5
Over/Under: 39.5
Set-up: The Texans don’t pretty it
up, but if the playoffs started today,
they’re hosting a home game. Most
of the “hard to watch” content around
this team centers on the Brock
Osweiler-led passing game. That
likely won’t change this week, but the
Texans defense will be all over an
anemic Jags offense. Bortles has protected
the ball a little better recently,
but they’re going to have problems
driving the ball and scoring points as
usual (the Jags haven’t scored more
than 23 points since September). And
when Houston has the ball, their big
guys up front will open lanes and the
ground game can pace the offense all
day. Look for a Texans win and cover.
Suggested Play: Take the Texans
New Orleans at Arizona
Line: Cardinals -3
Over/Under: 50
Set-up: For us, this one comes down
to the Saints D-line vs. the Cardinals
O-line. This is going to be a problem
area for Arizona all day (look at
the tape of their game last week vs.
Miami - it was rough). They should
be able to consistently get pressure
on Carson Palmer, who isn’t proficient
at extending plays or effectively
moving away from the trouble. David
Johnson is a true star and will get
his 100-plus yards, but if Brees can
put some points on the board early,
which we believe he can, that changes
things for DJ and forces Palmer to
the air. Not a good scenario for the
home team.
Suggested Play: Take the Saints
San Francisco at Atlanta
Line: Falcons -13.5
Over/Under: 51.5
Set-up: A ton of injuries, a 1-12
record, a brutal loss last week, a
cross-country trip late in a lost season
- nothing too appealing here. We
always lean to taking the big points,
but in this matchup we’ll eschew that
approach and back the big favorite.
Somewhat reluctantly. We just have
no confidence Chip Kelly can figure
out a way to stop the Falcon passing
game, and even if he does, then
you’ll see Devonta Freeman and the
running game go off. Carlos Hyde
and the ground game could keep the
Niners hanging around for a while,
but even then we see it all slipping
away late.
Suggested Play: Take the Falcons
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