The First 100 Days
The_First_100_Days_US-Canada_version
The_First_100_Days_US-Canada_version
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6. Regulatory Constraints<br />
Volkswagen Stock Price<br />
(EUR)<br />
250<br />
200<br />
150<br />
Record MNC Fines<br />
<strong>100</strong><br />
Jan-2015 Oct-2015 Jul-2016<br />
Bank Regulations<br />
Pages of Dodd-Frank Regulation Published by Year<br />
25,000<br />
20,000<br />
15,000<br />
10,000<br />
5,000<br />
0<br />
Proposed<br />
Final<br />
22,296<br />
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
Withdrawn Deals<br />
($, Bn)<br />
$0<br />
-$20<br />
-$40<br />
-$60<br />
-$80<br />
-$<strong>100</strong><br />
-$120<br />
Jan-2016<br />
M&A Pushback<br />
China Capital Controls<br />
China Capital Outflows<br />
($, Bn)<br />
Over $500 Bn<br />
outflows in 2016*<br />
$662 Bn<br />
Oct-2016<br />
You may not know: As DB’s George Saravelos notes, rising regulatory constraints are a headwind for globalization that comes in<br />
numerous forms: China capital controls, balkanized banking regulations, record MNC fines and cross-border M&A restrictions.<br />
While Trump brings a deregulation bias to US markets, he does so with a more inward focused approach on trade, competition and<br />
immigration.<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
<strong>100</strong><br />
0<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016<br />
Deutsche Bank<br />
1/4/2017<br />
Source: IIF. Davis Polk. DB Global Markets Research (Saravelos). SDC Thomson. M&A withdrawn transactions based on<br />
deals with either US target or acquirer based on rank value net debt of target.<br />
*2016 $530 Bn outflows based on Jan-Oct, latest data available.<br />
23
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