The First 100 Days

Deutsche Bank
The First 100 Days
Globalization Pushback & Market
Regime Change in the Year 2017
January 2017
Tom Joyce
CIB Capital Markets Strategist
Francis Kelly
Head of US Government Affairs
Hailey Orr
CIB Capital Markets Strategist
Mariya Getsova
CIB Capital Markets Strategist

2016: A Year of Surprises
Q1 Equity Correction
China Capital Controls Brexit Global Rates Shock US Election
S&P 500: Jan – Feb 11 2016 China Outflows GBP / USD in 2016 Negative Yields
(July 2016)
2016 Electoral Map
41%
Jan
(-10.5%)
Feb
Jan
Over $500bn
of outflows
Dec Oct
Post
Brexit
(-17.1%)
Jan
1.23
Dec
$15 Trillion of Global
Negative Yields
Trump
Clinton
Market Regime Change
OPEC Strategy Shift
Only 1 2016 Fed
Rate Hike Another US IG Record USD HY Spread Rally
Rotation into Equities
(Post US Election)
68
Global Stocks
+$3Trn
54
WTI Doubled in 2016 2016 Fed Funds USD IG Issuance HY Spreads Since Feb 11
$54
$1.3bn
Global Bonds
(-$3Trn)
56
Nov
Dec
42
Jan
+105%
(since Feb 11)
Dec
0.75%
2004 2016
2007 2016
Jan
(-404 bps)
Dec
Deutsche Bank
Source: Bloomberg. IIF. DB Global Markets Research (Slok). Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
Fed Funds chart shows the target rate upper bound. China had $530bn of outflows from Jan to Oct 2016.
1

The First 100 Days
I. Globalization Headwinds
II.
III.
IV.
Power & Process
Policy Priorities
Comprehensive US Tax Reform
V. 2017 Outlook & Implications
Epilogue: 2016 In Memoriam
Appendix:
A. 2017 DB Economic & Market Forecasts
B. 2017 Forward Calendar
C. President Obama’s Executive Orders
Deutsche Bank
2

Globalization Pushback & Market Regime Change in the Year 2017
I. Globalization Headwinds II. Power & Process
III. Policy Priorities
1. Weak Post GFC Recovery
11. Domestic Policy Team
21. Legislative Priorities
2. Global Trade Slowdown
12. Foreign Policy Team
22. Policy Shift: Mars & Venus
3. Cross-Border Lending & Spending
13. Economic Policy Team
23. ObamaCare Repeal & Replace
4. Technology Disruption
14. Strategic & Policy Forum
24. Deregulation
5. Climate Change
15. Congress & the Agenda
25. Infrastructure Spending
6. Regulatory Constraints
16. Resurgent US Treasury
26. Rebalance US – China Relations
7. Rising Global Debt
17. Democrats’ Diminishing Footprint
27. Tough on Trade
8. Vox Populi Risk
18. Core Constituency
28. Dodd-Frank Revisions
9. Brexit’s Long Road
19. Channeling Populism
29. US Energy Independence
10. New World (Dis)Order
20. Tweet Tweet
30. “Eyes” on the Fed
Deutsche Bank
3

Globalization Pushback & Market Regime Change in the Year 2017
IV. Comprehensive US Tax Reform
31. Backdrop: Dysfunction Junction
V. 2017 Outlook & Implications
41. Make Growth Great Again
32. Pillars of Corporate Tax Reform
42. US as G10 Outlier
33. The Path
43. Market Regime Change
34. Expected Timeline
44. Animal Spirits Awaken
35. The Math
45. Equity Earnings Revival
36. The ObamaCare Taxes
46. Credit Headwinds & Tailwinds
37. Border-Adjusted Taxes
47. Rates Paradigm Shift
38. Corporate Tax Reform
48. Resurgent US Dollar
39. International Tax Reform
49. EMFX & RMB Vulnerabilities
40. Individual Tax Reform
50. Supply-Driven Oil Market
Deutsche Bank
4

Deutsche Bank
Introduction

Introduction
"A Black Swan is an event with the following three attributes.
First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular
expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point
to its possibility.
2007
Second, it carries an extreme impact.
Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us
concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it
explainable and predictable.
Ever since we left the Pleistocene some 10 millennia ago, the
effect of these Black Swans has been increasing. It started
accelerating during the Industrial Revolution, as the world started
getting more complicated, while ordinary events, the ones we
study and discuss and try to predict from reading the
newspapers, have become increasingly inconsequential."
- Nassim Taleb, Lebanese-American essayist, scholar, statistician
Deutsche Bank
6

Markets Since the US Election
Rallying
Underperforming
US Equities
US Credit
Russell 2000 Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ
10Yr UST 2s – 10s Curve Rate Vol Munis
+13.6%
+7.8%
+4.6%
+3.7%
Commodities
Oil Copper Zinc Steel
+59 bps +26 bps
+4.6%
(-3.3%)
Currencies
MXN JPY EUR RMB
(-11.6%) (-10.1%) (-4.6%)
(-2.4%)
+19.7%
+4.9%
+3.7 %
+3.2%
S&P 500 Industry Sectors
Financials Telecom Energy Industrials
S&P 500 Industry Sectors
Con. Staples Utilities Real Estate Healthcare
+16.5%
+13.0%
+8.9%
+7.3%
(-1.4%)
(-0.6%)
+0.8%
+1.2%
Deutsche Bank
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 31, 2016. Steel is Steel Rebar. Oil is WTI. Rate Vol is MOVE Index. All currencies shown vs. USD with axis in
reverse order for MXN, JPY and RMB. Currency change calculated in local currency terms. 2s-10s curve is 10yr UST yield less 2 yr UST yield.
7

2016 Global Market Performance
Global Market Performance (2016)
Commodities Equities FX
Credit
(-13.2%)
Wheat
(-10.5%)
Japan
NIKKEI
Shanghai
Composite
2.3%
(-16.3%)
(-6.6%)
UK
China
US Munis
USTs
0.2%
1.1%
(-1.9%)
Gold
Silver
Corn
8.6%
14.9%
Hang Seng
India NIFTY
German
DAX 30
French
CAC 40
4.3%
4.5%
6.9%
8.8%
(-3.2%)
(-2.6%)
(-1.6%)
Euro
India
Switz.
MBS
US Fin Senior
Bunds
1.4%
3.4%
4.0%
Copper
17.4%
NASDAQ
MSCI EM
9.0%
11.3%
Japan
2.8%
US TIPS
US Fin Sub
4.3%
5.3%
WTI
Nat Gas
45.0%
59.4%
S&P 500
DOW Jones
UK FTSE 100
Russell 2000
12.0%
16.5%
19.2%
21.3%
USD Index
S. Africa
Russia
3.6%
12.6%
18.6%
US IG
EM
Gilts
5.5%
8.8%
10.5%
Steel
60.5%
Russia MICEX
32.8%
Brazil
21.7%
US HY
15.3%
-50% 0% 50% 100%
-20% 0% 20% 40%
-50% 0% 50%
0% 10% 20%
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Global Markets Research (Reid). Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 31, 2016. Commodities are total returns except Gold, Steel and Nat Gas, which are spot
changes. Nat Gas is Generic 1 st Natural Gas futures. Steel is Generic 1 st Steel Rebar. Credit based on total returns in USD terms. FX based on spot price change in
local currency terms vs. the USD. Equities % change calculated on a total return basis with dividends reinvested in index in local currency terms.
8

2016: USD Strength & Sterling Capitulation
BRL RUB
21.7%
25%
18.6%
20%
15%
164 Global Currencies: 2016 Performance vs. the US Dollar
• The Brazilian Real and Russian Ruble were the strongest performing
vs. the US Dollar of 164 currencies tracked by Bloomberg in 2016
10%
5%
CAD JPY
3.0% 2.8% NOK
2.3%
-1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
AUD
(-1.1%) CHF
(-1.6%)
INR
(-2.6%)
• The Euro’s underperformance ranked #111 of 164 currencies in 2016
EUR
(-3.2%)
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
CNY SEK
(-6.6%) (-7.2%)
• The Sterling and the Mexican Peso ranked #149 and #150,
respectively, of 164 currencies in 2016
• Sterling was the worst performing G10 currency in 2016
GBP MXN
(-16.3%) (-17.0%)
Deutsche Bank
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
All currencies calculated in local currency terms vs. US Dollar.
9

2016: Another Record-Breaking Year
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
Largest Ever USD IG Issuance
USD IG Bond Issuance
($, Bn)
$1 trn
6 th Consecutive
Record Year
$1.3 Trn
2006 2011 2016
US IG Bond Market Mega Deals
(# of deals >$5 Bn)
Median: 11 Deals
2006 2011 2016
31
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
3 rd Largest Global M&A Year
Global M&A Volumes
($, Bn)
$4 trn
2006 2011 2016
M&A Mega Deals
(# of announced deals >$10 bn)
Median: 28 Deals
$3.7 Trn
2006 2011 2016
28
You May Not Know: The USD IG markets recorded their 6 th consecutive issuance record in 2016. While global M&A was down
15% on the year, it was still the 3 rd most active year for mergers. October 2016 also ranked as the busiest M&A month ever. The
combination of rising CEO confidence, attractive funding markets, improved growth, tax reform and a deregulation bias all bode
well for 2017 activity.
Deutsche Bank
Source: IFR. SDC Thomson. DB Debt Capital Markets. WSJ. Data as of Dec 31, 2015.
10

Critical Questions for “The First 100 Days”
Critical Questions for “The First 100 Days”
Trump: How much will Trump “the President” resemble Trump “the candidate”? Will the power base in Trump’s White
House be driven by anti-establishment loyalists, or the more traditionally conservative Republican establishment?
First 100 days: Which 2-3 major Trump policy proposals will be prioritized in the first year of his Presidency? Will FY
2017 and 2018 budgets be passed in the first 100 days to facilitate ObamaCare repeal and comprehensive tax reform?
Confirmation Hearings: Will the more controversial Trump cabinet appointments (Sessions, Price, Tillerson, Mnuchin)
result in bruising confirmation hearings that require political capital better used for an ambitious policy agenda?
Tax Reform: Given its sheer magnitude and complexity, will Republicans be able to execute the largest reform of the
US tax code (individual, corporate, international) in a generation? Will Trump get behind the House plan’s concept of
“border adjusted taxes” in order to push it through the Senate?
Infrastructure: Will conservative fiscal Republicans (McConnell, Ryan, Pence, Mulvaney, Priebus) support anything
close to Trump’s $1 trillion infrastructure program, and how will it be funded?
China & Trade: Will Trump’s renegotiation efforts be more bark than bite, or is he willing to risk a damaging trade war
to reset the US-China economic relationship?
ObamaCare: Will Republicans use budget reconciliation in Jan-Feb to unwind trillions of ObamaCare spending and
taxes immediately? Will they be able to co-opt the 10 vulnerable Democratic Senators in Red States to “replace” with a
more defined contribution-based system? Will there be resistance to “repeal” without a clear “replace” strategy?
Dodd-Frank: What will be the focus areas of Trump’s unwind of selected Dodd-Frank provisions, and will he pivot to
center from his campaign rhetoric regarding the big banks (Glass Steagall, Volcker, TBTF, FSOC)?
Treasury: Will new US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin pursue a strong US Dollar policy, and how quickly will he pivot if
there is contagion to global markets (EM, China peg, oil, US exports, S&P 500 earnings)?
The Fed: Will Trump pursue campaign promises to curtail Fed policy independence, and will he replace Yellen as Chair
in 2018?
Deutsche Bank
Source: CIB Markets Strategy.
The referenced “First 100 Days” commence on President-Elect Trump’s Jan 20 inauguration.
11

Key Market Themes for 2017
Politics & Policy
10 Themes to Watch in 2017
Markets
1. US as G10 Outlier
(fiscal easing, monetary tightening, deregulation bias)
6. Market regime change
(rotations into equities and financials, earnings-driven
equities, rate & yield curve paradigm shift)
2. Deflation to reflation shift globally 7. Animal spirits re-awakened in markets
3. Political risk as an important driver of
markets
8. Rising rates and steeper yield curve
4. Rising nationalism & inward-looking
policy
(trade, immigration)
9. Resurgent US Dollar strength
5. China policy toolkit constraints
(fiscal easing, FX policy, capital controls, reform agenda)
10. Higher and more episodic volatility
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Global Markets Research. BMI Research.
12

Key Risks to Watch in 2017
10 Elections to Watch 10 Risks to Watch
1) Mar 15: Netherlands General
1) Dovish Fed falling behind rate curve
2) Mar 26: Hong Kong Chief Executive
3) Apr 23: French Presidential (1 st Round)
4) May 7: French Presidential (2 nd Round)
5) May 19: Iran Presidential
6) Aug: Rwanda General
7) Oct: China’s Politburo
8) Oct 22: Germany General
9) Dec 20: South Korea Presidential
10) Late 2017: Thailand General
2) Stagflation if US growth slow to materialize
3) Fed or USD induced tightening of financial
conditions
4) Escalating US-China trade disputes / retaliatory
measures
5) US Dollar contagion (EM, China, oil, exports,
earnings)
6) European politics (Brexit, elections, migrant crisis)
7) Republican failure to pass “comprehensive” tax
reform
8) Oil supply glut (US production upside; OPEC
production cut enforcement)
9) Recovery delays for commodity exporters
10) Geo-political escalation (cyber security, failed
states, terrorism)
Note: Though not currently scheduled, both Italy and the UK have a high probability of early elections in 2017.
Deutsche Bank
Source: The Atlantic. CFR. BMI Research.
13

Global Market Outlook for 2017
US Rates
(10Yr UST)
US Dollar
Q2: 3.60%
YE: 3.10%
2017E
YE JPY: 125
YE EUR: 0.95
YE GBP: 1.06
Outlook
• 1H: Higher on increased inflation expectations and pro-growth agenda
(tax, infrastructure, deregulation)
• 2H: Lower as markets price higher growth more quickly than a dovish
Fed
• Yen: Nominal yield divergence led by higher US rates
• Euro: Policy divergence, slower growth, political risk
• Sterling: Brexit uncertainty to weigh on growth and capital inflows
Oil
Q4 WTI: $53
Q4 Brent: $55
• Over-supply will contain upside (US supply recovering quickly)
• Enforcement questions on OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts
US Equities
(S&P 500)
YE: 2,350 (+5%) • Market transition from rates-driven to earnings-driven
• Outperformance: Financials, healthcare
• Underperformance: Consumer staples, industrials, materials, energy
USD IG Credit
USD HY Credit
Issuance: $1.2 Trn (-6%)
Spreads: +20 - 25 bps
Issuance: $600 Bn (+5%)
Spreads: +100 bps
• IG Issuance: Slowing big M&A and tax reform will curtail supply by
-6% to $1.2 trillion
• IG Spreads: Spreads widen slightly to ~150bps as rates rise and
fallen angel rate moves to higher but still moderate 2.3%
• HY Issuance: Up 5% y/y to $600bn (HY: $248bn / loans: $355bn) on
deregulation tailwinds, oil price stability, M&A and recap activity
• HY Spreads: Modestly wider to ~550bps as Fed tightens. Improved
fundamentals (growth) contains default rate at 5% area.
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Global Markets Research (Konstam. Ruskin. Saravelos. Hsueh. Bianco. Melentyev.)
14

The World in 2017
2017 GDP Forecasts
Canada
1.9%
US
2.4%
Mexico
1.4%
Brazil
0.5%
UK
1.2%
EuroZone
1.3%
CEEMEA
2.6%
India
7.0%
China
6.5%
Japan
1.1%
Russia
1.6%
Latin America
1.2%
Sub-Saharan
Africa
2.7%
Asia Ex-Japan
5.9%
Australia
2.0%
0 - 2%
2 - 4%
>4%
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Global Markets Research (Emerging Markets, Economics). Note: All forecasts from DB Research except Sub-Saharan Africa (Economist
Intelligence Unit).
15

Deutsche Bank
I. Globalization Headwinds

I. Globalization Headwinds
2016
"We are living through one of the greatest inflection points in
history...The three largest forces on the planet - technology,
globalization, and climate change - are all accelerating at
once. As a result, so many aspects of our societies, workplaces,
and geopolitics are being reshaped and need to be reimagined."
"There is a mismatch between the change in the pace of change
and our ability to develop the learning systems, training systems,
management systems, social safety nets, and government
regulations that would enable citizens to get the most out of these
accelerations and cushion their worst impacts. This mismatch is
at the center of much of the turmoil roiling politics and society in
both developed and developing countries today. It now
constitutes probably the most important governance challenge
across the globe."
-Thomas Friedman, American journalist, author
and 3x Pulitzer Prize Winner
Deutsche Bank
17

1. Weak Post GFC Recovery
Global GDP Growth
2000 – 2017E 2016 vs. 2017
10%
8%
Financial
Crisis
2016 - 18
Forecasts
Country 2016E 2017E Change
7.0% 7.0%
6.7% 6.5%
6%
6%
1.5% 2.4%
4%
4%
EM
World
(-0.5%) 1.6%
1.7% 1.3%
2%
2%
Advanced
1.2% 1.3%
2.1% 1.2%
0%
2000 2008 2016
-2%
-4%
1.9% 1.1%
1.0% 1.1%
0.9% 0.7%
(-3.4%) 0.5%
You May Not Know: Since the global financial crisis (GFC), the US economy has grown approximately 12% above pre-crisis
levels (well below historical recovery averages), while Europe has only grown 2%. As we enter 2017, the big 4 global economies
(US, Europe, China and Japan) all have PMIs above 51 for the first time since Nov 2013. However, US GDP forecasts are double
those for Europe, the UK and Japan.
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Global Markets Research (Economics).
18

2. Global Trade Slowdown
Trade Growth to GDP Growth Ratio
Ratio of world merchandise trade volume growth
to world real GDP growth
4x
3x
2x
1x
0x
-1x
-2x
-3x
-4x
1985 2000 2015
Declining Trade Flows
Flows of Goods, Services, and Finance
(USD, Trn)
50
40
30
20
10
2007: 53%
(% of GDP)
39%
$30 Trn $30 Trn
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
0%
1980 1997 2014
0.8x
Protectionism Rising
# of DM Protectionist Measures*
450
300
150
0
Trade Agreements Declining
Trade Agreements Signed Each Year
50
25
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Tariff Rates Rising
Trade Weighted Avg. Global Tariff Rate
20%
15%
10%
5%
412
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0%
1988 2001 2014
You May Not Know: According to the WTO, for only the second time in 15 years, global trade growth in 2016 will fall below global
GDP growth. To be sure, the peak era of large scale multi-lateral free trade deals is almost certainly behind us. Not all is lost. With
TPP dead, look for China to promote its regional RCEP framework in 2017, and for the EU and Japan to sign a bilateral trade deal.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Wall Street Journal. IMF. BMI. Global Trade Alerts. WTO. McKinsey Global Institute. DB Global Markets Research (Saravelos. Winkler).
* Number of protectionist measures is for top 5 largest DM economies (US, EU, Japan, Australia, Canada). Shows total implemented measures that
are almost certainly discriminatory towards foreign commercial interests.
19

3. Cross-Border Lending & Spending
20%
Low Business Spend
US Private Non-Residential Fixed
Investment
(Y/Y)
40
Less Lending
Global Cross Border Claims
(USD, Trn)
56
Declining FDI
Gross Global Direct Investment Position
(USD, Trn)
15%
35
$27.4 Trn
54
$53.9 Trn
30
52
10%
25
50
5%
20
48
0%
15
46
(-0.8%)
10
44
-5%
5
42
-10%
2010 2016 0
40
1977 2016
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
You may not know: While global trade, cross border lending and FDI have all declined in recent periods, cross border securities
transactions and data flows have been increasing. According to a recent McKinsey report, cross-border data flows added nearly
$3 trillion to global GDP in 2014, surpassing the impact of global goods trade.
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Global Markets Research (Hooper, Spencer, Slok). Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
20

4. Technology Disruption
Technology Acceleration
Processing Performance
Networks
Technology Disruption
Hotel & Lodging
Retail
Microprocessor Performance*
6000
4000
2000
0
1984 2005
Smart Devices
Used Cross-Border Bandwidth
(Terabits per Second)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2005 2021E
Storage
AirBnB Listings (Thousands)
600
400
200
0
2011 2014
Transportation
Amazon Sales Revenue ($, Bn)
90
60
30
0
2004 2014
Manufacturing
Global Smartphone Users (bn)
5.5
5.0
4.5
Cloud Computing Market (USD mn)
200
100
Uber Valuation ($, Bn)
75
50
25
3D Printing Market, N. America
($, Bn)
10
$2.4Bn
$7.7Bn
4.0
2012 2017
Software
0
2008 2018
Internet
0
2011 2015
Media
0
2015 2025
Finance & Payments
Mobile Apps (mn)
2
0
2008 2015
Global Internet Users (bn)
4
0
2000 2015
Neftlix (Share Price, $)
150
0
2003 2016
US Smartphone Payments Market
($, Bn)
You May Not Know: Since 2007 in particular, the acceleration of the multi-decade technology revolution has exceeded the ability
of social and political institutions, and culture, to evolve sufficiently in order to absorb the pace of change. As such, while
technology is an enabling facilitator for globalization, it has also been a powerful disrupter of business models, the job market and
global economic relationships between countries.
100
50
$140
$0
2014 2020
Deutsche Bank
Source: Tom Friedman, Thank You for Being Late. Financial Times. London Clearing House. Internet Live Stats. Statista. eMarketer. McKinsey Global Institute.
TeleGeography. Frost & Sullivan. BCG. Wall Street Research. VentureBeat. The New York Times. Columbia University Department of Computer Science. OECD.
*Microprocessor performance as measured against the VAX-11/780 model. Apps data represents the number of mobile applications in the Apple Store over time.
Cloud computing graph tracks the total size of the public cloud-computing market.
21

5. Climate Change
Population
(bn)
8
6
4
2
0
1901 2015
Social Trends
Global GDP
($, Tr)
80
40
0
1969 2014
Global Temperatures
(change since 1850)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1850 2015
The Earth
CO 2 Emissions
(ppm)
420
360
300
1958 1970 1983 1995 2008
Car and Truck Sales
(mm units)
100
75
50
25
0
1964 2014
Global Oil Demand
(mmb/d)
100
90
80
70
1997 2017
Coastal Flooding
(# of flood days/yr)
90
60
30
0
1950 1965 1980 1995 2010
Sea Level
(change since 1880, in)
10
8
6
4
2
0
1880 1915 1950 1985
“Our planet is being reshaped by the rising power of many…”
- Thomas Friedman, in Thank You for Being Late
You May Not Know: The Earth is 4.6 billion years old. July 2016 was the hottest month on Earth of the 1,641 months on
record. Greenland is losing 287 billion tons of ice per year. Sea-levels today are higher than they've been in 115,000 years, and
rising. As of December 2016, 194 countries have signed the Paris Climate Agreement, and 118 have ratified it.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Tom Friedman. Bloomberg. History Database of the Global Environment. NASA. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Congressional Budget Office.
International Council on Clean Transportation. Environmental Protection Administration. National Ocean Service. McKinsey. Coastal flooding data for Wilmington, North
Carolina.
22

6. Regulatory Constraints
Volkswagen Stock Price
(EUR)
250
200
150
Record MNC Fines
100
Jan-2015 Oct-2015 Jul-2016
Bank Regulations
Pages of Dodd-Frank Regulation Published by Year
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Proposed
Final
22,296
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Withdrawn Deals
($, Bn)
$0
-$20
-$40
-$60
-$80
-$100
-$120
Jan-2016
M&A Pushback
China Capital Controls
China Capital Outflows
($, Bn)
Over $500 Bn
outflows in 2016*
$662 Bn
Oct-2016
You may not know: As DB’s George Saravelos notes, rising regulatory constraints are a headwind for globalization that comes in
numerous forms: China capital controls, balkanized banking regulations, record MNC fines and cross-border M&A restrictions.
While Trump brings a deregulation bias to US markets, he does so with a more inward focused approach on trade, competition and
immigration.
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Deutsche Bank
1/4/2017
Source: IIF. Davis Polk. DB Global Markets Research (Saravelos). SDC Thomson. M&A withdrawn transactions based on
deals with either US target or acquirer based on rank value net debt of target.
*2016 $530 Bn outflows based on Jan-Oct, latest data available.
23

1/4/2017
7. Rising Global Debt
Debt as a % of GDP
140%
Rising Global Debt
Global Debt Increases by Country
Post-crisis changes in non-financial private debt*
(% of GDP)
75%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
Major advanced economies
Advanced economies
World
Latin America and
the Caribbean
Emerging Asia
Other emerging
markets
50%
25%
0%
-25%
-50%
20%
2008 2021
You may not know: Contrary to popular opinion, global debt / GDP has risen considerably since the GFC (over 17 percentage
points). The rise in corporate debt globally has been especially notable: US corp debt (close to all-time highs), EM ex-China corp
debt (approaching 1990s peak level), and China (fastest corp debt growth in the world, rising from 150% of GDP in 2007 to 240%
today). Rising debt creates headwinds for globalization via lower growth, policy constraints, and socio-political backlash.
Deutsche Bank
Source: IMF. DB Global Markets Research (Slok).
*Cumulative change over 2008 – 2015. IMF Fiscal Monitor Oct 2016.
24

Support level
Anti-austerity
Anti-eurozone
Antiglobalization
Antiestablishment
Anti-European
Union
Anti-immigration
8. Vox Populi Risk
Disapproval Rating
Ratings for EU Economic Policy
Disapprove
Approve
European Populism
Greece
(-92%)
6%
Italy
France
Spain
Sweden
UK
(-68%)
(-66%)
(-65%)
(-59%)
(-55%)
22%
27%
28%
34%
28%
Podemos
Spain 23%
Syriza
Greece 14%
Five Star
Italy 30%
UKIP
Britain 11%
Netherlands
(-49%)
42%
National Front
France 23%
Hungary
(-48%)
38%
Freedom Party
Netherlands 17%
Germany
(-38%)
47%
AFD
Germany 13%
Poland
(-33%)
47%
Freedom Party
Austria 35%
You May Not Know: According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook, political risk in advanced economies has become the
largest risk to global growth. Italy, for example, has had 64 governments in 70 years. If 2016 was the year of the referenda in
Europe, 2017 will be a year of pivotal elections: Netherlands (Q1), France (Q2), Germany (Q3), and possible early elections in
both Italy and the UK. Sluggish growth, the migrant challenge and a busy election schedule will all pose significant challenges for
the European project in 2017.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Wall Street Journal. Pew Research Center. New York Times.
25

9. Brexit’s Long Road
GBP / USD
1.5
1.4
Sterling’s Capitulation
Long Road to Brexit
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3
Tailored
Agreement
EEA
WTO
Countries:
1.3
Canada
Norway
Brazil
(-17%)
1.23
1.2
Jan-2016
Dec-2016
Switzerland
Iceland
Russia
Slower UK Growth
Considerations:
UK GDP
(Y/Y)
3.0%
2.0%
1.2% 1.1%
5 – 10 year,
complex
negotiation
Less bank and
other access
Fewer EU
restrictions
Higher EU budget
contributions
Accept EU
immigration rules
More single
market access
No favorable
access or
relationship
benefits
Less complex
1.0%
0.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Preferred
Option
Less
Likely
Default
Position
You may not know: Trump would likely reverse Obama’s position of the UK ‘at the back of the queue’ on a new trade deal. Post-
Brexit, we would look for Trump to potentially expedite a bilateral US-UK trade negotiation, while the larger TTIP deal with the US
and EU is almost certainly dead in the water. Look for the UK to trigger Article 50 in March 2017, and for subsequent exit and
trade negotiations to take a combined 5-10 years. Canada and the EU took 7 years to complete their 2016 trade deal.
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Global Markets Research (Wall). Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
26

10. New World (Dis)Order
# of Displaced People Globally
2016 Fragile States Index
Global Refugees, Asylum-Seekers, and Internally Displaced Peoples
(Millions) 2015:
70
65.3 Mn
Old World Order
60
50
40
• Left vs. Right
• East vs. West
• Socialism vs. Capitalism
• Totalitarian vs. Democratic
• Higher global stability
Very High Alert
1. Somalia
2. South Sudan
3.
Central African
Rep.
4. Sudan
High Alert
9. Afghanistan
10. Haiti
11. Iraq
12. Guinea
30
20
10
1997:
20.0 Mn
New World (Dis)Order
• Nationalism vs. Global
• Working Class vs. Elite
• Populism vs. Establishment
• Order vs. Disorder
• Higher global instability
5. Yemen
6. Syria
7. Chad
13. Nigeria
14. Pakistan
15. Burundi
0
1997 2006 2015
8. Congo (D.R.)
16. Zimbabwe
You May Not Know: According to the UN, the world today has over 65 million displaced people, nearly double the number from a
decade ago. Globally, 1 in 122 humans today is a refugee, internally displaced or seeking asylum. If this population were a
country, it would be the 24 th largest in the world.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Tom Friedman. United Nations Refugee Agency report: Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2015 (June 20, 2016). US
Think Tank The Fund for Peace (FFP). Foreign Policy Magazine.
27

Deutsche Bank
II. Power & Process

II. Power & Process
2005
"This, then, is a story of Lincoln's political genius revealed
through his extraordinary array of personal qualities that
enabled him to form friendships with men who had previously
opposed him; to repair injured feelings that, left untended, might
have escalated into permanent hostility; to assume
responsibility for the failures of subordinates; to share credit
with ease, and to learn from mistakes. He possessed an acute
understanding of the sources of power inherent in the
presidency, an unparalleled ability to keep his governing
coalition intact, a tough minded appreciation of the need to
protect his presidential prerogatives, and a masterful sense of
timing."
- Doris Kearns Goodwin, Pulitzer Prize Winning American Historian
Deutsche Bank
29

11. Domestic Policy Team
Cabinet:
Position
Nominee / Prior Experience
Congressional
Approval?
Trump
Loyalist
Pick Type
Establishment /
Other
Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Senator (R – AL)
Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke, Representative (R – MT)
Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Price, House of Rep (R – GA)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson, Neurosurgeon
Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao, Bush Secretary of Labor
Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos, School voucher advocate
Secretary of Agriculture To Be Announced
Secretary of Veterans Affairs To Be Announced
Non-Cabinet:
Nominees and Appointees for Key White House Positions
Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, Campaign manager
Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, RNC Chairman
Adviser Jared Kushner, Real Estate developer
White House Counsel Donald McGahn, Campaign finance lawyer
White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer, RNC communications director
Chairman of the EPA Scott Pruitt, Oklahoma Attorney General
CMS Administrator
(Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services)
Seema Varma, President of SVC Inc
Counselor to the President Kellyanne Conway, Campaign manager
Deutsche Bank
Source: Public Media. Trump Transition Team.
30

12. Foreign Policy Team
Cabinet:
Position
Nominee / Prior Experience
Congressional
Approval?
Trump
Loyalist
Pick Type
Establishment /
Other
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, CEO of Exxonmobil
Secretary of Defense James Mattis, Marine General
Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly, Retired Army General
Non-Cabinet:
National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, Army lieutenant
Deputy National Security Adviser
Nominees and Appointees for Key White House Positions
Kathleen McFarland, National Security
analyst
US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, Governor of South Carolina
Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo, Representative (R – KS)
Ambassador to China Terry Branstad, Gov. of Iowa
Homeland Security Advisor
Thomas Bossert, Bush Deputy Homeland
Security advisor
Deputy Secretary of State To Be Announced
Director of National Intelligence To Be Announced
Deutsche Bank
Source: Public Media. Trump Transition Team.
31

13. Economic Policy Team
Cabinet-level:
Position
Nominee / Prior Experience
Congressional
Approval?
Trump
Loyalist
Pick Type
Establishment /
Other
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, CEO of ExxonMobil
Secretary of the Treasury
Steven Mnuchin, Goldman Sachs partner,
Hollywood financier
Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, Investment banker
Secretary of Labor Andrew F. Puzder, CEO of CKE Restaurants
Secretary of Energy Rick Perry, Governor of Texas
Head of OMB Mick Mulvaney, Representative (R – SC)
US Trade Representative
Non-Cabinet:
Nominees and Appointees for Key White House Positions
Robert Lighthizer, Lawyer; frmr. trade
representative
Deputy Commerce Secretary Todd Ricketts, Chicago Cubs Co-Owner
Director of the National Economic Council Gary Cohn, frmr. COO of Goldman Sachs
Head of the National Trade Council Peter Navarro, Professor, author
Head of the Small Business Administration Linda McMahon, Business executive
Advisor on Regulatory Overhaul Carl Icahn, Investor
Chairman of the Council of Economic
Advisers
To Be Announced
Assistant Treasury Secretary for Tax Policy To Be Announced
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision To Be Announced
Deutsche Bank
Source: Public Media. Trump Transition Team.
Though technically not part of the Cabinet, Head of OMB and the USTR are treated as Cabinet-level positions.
32

14. Strategic & Policy Forum
Trump’s Strategic and Policy Forum
Name
Stephen A. Schwarzman
Forum Chairman
Paul Atkins
Mary Barra
Toby Cosgrove
Jamie Dimon
Business Position
Chairman, CEO, Co-Founder, Blackstone
CEO, Patomak Global Partners, LLC
Frmr. Commissioner of the SEC
Chairman, CEO, General Motors
CEO, Cleveland Clinic
Chairman, CEO, JPMorgan Chase
Resilient R&D
US change in inflation-adjusted private fixed nonresidential
investment by category since Q4 2007
40%
20%
R&D deductions
retained in GOP
tax blueprint
Intellectual Property
30.0%
Larry Fink
Bob Iger
Chairman, CEO, BlackRock
Chairman , CEO, The Walt Disney Company
Equipment
13.4%
Rich Lesser
President, CEO, Boston Consulting Group
0%
Doug McMillon
President, CEO, Wal-Mart Stores
Jim McNearney
Adebayo Ogunlesi
Ginni Rometty
Frmr. Chairman, President, CEO, Boeing
Chairman, Global Infrastructure Partners
Chairman, President, CEO, IBM
-20%
Structures
(-5.9%)
Kevin Warsh
Hoover Institute; Frmr. Fed Governor
Mark Weinberger
Global Chairman, CEO, EY
Jack Welch
Daniel Yergin
Frmr. Chairman, CEO, General Electric
Vice Chairman, IHS Market. Pulitzer Prizewinning
author and oil expert
-40%
2007 2015
You May Not Know: President-elect Trump has appointed a forum of 16 business leaders that he intends to meet with on a
monthly basis. President Obama set up a similar but larger group (25 members) after his election. However, they only met 4x, the
last meeting being in 2012.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Financial Times. Blackstone. Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
33

15. Congress & the Agenda
Key Policy Initiative Senate Committee House Committee
Tax Reform / Repatriation
Dodd-Frank
ObamaCare
Infrastructure Spending
Immigration Policy
Trade
Energy Policy
Finance Committee
Chair: Orrin Hatch (R – UT)
Committee on Banking, Housing, and
Urban Affairs
Chair: Mike Crapo (R – ID)
Finance Committee
Chair: Orrin Hatch (R – UT)
Committee on Health, Education,
Labor, and Pensions
Chair: Lamar Alexander (R – TX)
Finance Committee
Chair: Orrin Hatch (R – UT)
Judiciary Committee
Chair: Chuck Grassley (R – IA)
Finance Committee
Chair: Orrin Hatch (R – UT)
Foreign Relations Committee
Chair: Bob Corker (R – TN)
Committee on Energy and Natural
Resources
Chair: Lisa Murkowski (R – AK)
Ways and Means
Chair: Kevin Brady (R – TX)
Committee on Financial Services
Chair: Jeb Hensarling (R – TX)
Ways and Means
Chair: Kevin Brady (R – TX)
Ways and Means
Chair: Kevin Brady (R – TX)
Judiciary Committee
Chair: Bob Goodlatte (R – VA)
Ways and Means
Chair: Kevin Brady (R – TX)
Foreign Affairs Committee
Chair: Ed Royce (R – CA)
Energy and Commerce Committee
Chair: Greg Walden (R – OR)
You May Not Know: Since Republicans have 241 seats in a 435 person House where 218 is the majority, only 20-25 votes are
needed to block legislation. The 40-45 person strong “Freedom Caucus” could therefore be an obstacle on deficit-creating
legislation (i.e., infrastructure). In the Senate, Republicans have a narrow majority of 52-48, and so only 3 votes are needed to
defeat legislation. Transformative policy becomes a challenge without the 60 person filibuster-proof majority.
Deutsche Bank
Source: The White House. Peck, Madigan, Jones. Tax Reform also controlled by House Education and Workforce Committee. Dodd-Frank also controlled by House and Senate Agriculture Committees. ObamaCare also controlled by
House Energy and Commerce, Education and Workforce, and Oversight and Government Reform Committees. Infrastructure Spending also controlled by House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, and the Senate
Committees on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, and on Environment and Public Works. Immigration Policy also controlled by House Committee on Homeland Security. Trade also controlled by the House Committee on
Energy and Commerce, and the House and Senate Committees on Agriculture. Energy Policy also controlled by the House Natural Resources and Oversight and Government reform committees, as well as the House Committee on
Science, Space, and Technology.
34

1/4/2017
16. Resurgent US Treasury
DXY Index
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
US Dollar Strength
10 Priorities in an
Ambitious US Treasury Agenda
1. Expansionary fiscal policy to turbo-charge growth
2. Largest tax cuts and reforms since Reagan
3. $1 trillion of infrastructure spending
4. Strong US Dollar policy
5. Trade policy & FX manipulator status (China)
6. Extending the tenor of US debt maturities
7. Relaxation of onerous Dodd-Frank regulations
90
88
Pre-
Brexit
(-5.2%)
Post-
Brexit
+4.6%
Post-
US Election
+4.4%
8. Mortgage finance reform (privatize Fannie / Freddie)
9. Revisiting Treasury-led sanction regimes (Russia,
Iran)
86
Jan-2016 Jun-2016 Dec-2016
10. Federal Reserve and other regulatory nominations
You May Not Know: The US Treasury Secretary heads a department of over 86,000 employees and a $14 billion annual budget.
While Mnuchin will need to prioritize items on his ambitious agenda, we do expect him to play a stronger role in the White House
than his predecessor, Jack Lew. While comprehensive tax reform is a top priority (notably, the IRS sits within Treasury), it should
be noted that tax laws are set by the US Congress.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
35

1/4/2017
17. Democrats’ Diminishing Footprint
2018 US Senate Elections
Total Democrats’ Senate
Seats Up in 2018: 25*
• Red states: 10
• Blue states: 15
Seats Held by Democrats
2009 2017
President 1 0
Senate 58 48
House of
Representatives
257 194**
**1/3 of Dem Seats from 3 states: CA, NY, MA
State Governorships 29 15
State Legislative
Chambers
Unified Government at
State Level
57 31
17 6
You May Not Know: Republican control of the White House, Senate and House in 2016 has fit a pattern of larger gains across
State Governorships and legislative chambers nationally. In 2018, 25 of the 33 Senate seats up for re-election are held by
Democrats. Of the 25, 10 are from red states, 5 of which Trump won decisively, and 5 of which Trump won narrowly. While it is
unlikely that vulnerable Dems will cross party lines to dismantle Dodd-Frank, they may prove pivotal to Trump’s efforts on
ObamaCare and economic issues.
Deutsche Bank
Source: New York Times.
* Includes 23 Democrat seats and 2 independents.
36

18. Core Constituency
CA
AK
OR
WA
NV
Trump’s Core Constituency
ID
AZ
UT
HI
MT
WY
CO
NM
ND
MN
Recommendations SD
WI and
detected threats
NE
KS
TX
OK
IA
MO
AR
LA
“The Rust Belt”
IL
MS
FL
ME
VT
NH
NY MA
MI
CT
RI
PA NJ
OH
IN
DE
WV MD
VA
KY
TN
NC
SC
AL GA
US Wealth Inequality
Share of US Household Wealth by Income Level
40%
30%
20%
Bottom 90%
23%
22%
Election Black Swan: PA, MI, & WI
Last Time
Voted GOP
Margin of Victory
# %
PA 1988 46k 0.8%
MI 1988 11k 0.2%
WI 1984 22k 0.7%
10%
Top 0.1%
0%
1917 2014
You May Not Know: Trump lost the popular vote by 2.9mm votes, but won the Electoral College by winning three states that have
been Democratic since the 1980s: Wisconsin by 22k votes (or 0.7%), Michigan by 11k (0.2%), and Pennsylvania by 46k (0.8%).
US wealth ownership has changed significantly in recent decades, with the top 0.1% of households today holding the same wealth
as the bottom 90%. Trump was elected to be a disrupter, both nationally and internationally, and we expect him to do so.
Deutsche Bank
Source: NY Times. WSJ. DB Global Markets Research (Slok). CNN.
37

1/4/2017
19. Channeling Populism
20
Nationalist Corporate Policy
US Manufacturing Decline
(Jobs, Mn)
19.3Mn
2001: China joins WTO
17.3Mn
14
Immigration Policy
Unauthorized Immigrant Population in the US
(Millions)
11.1Mn
15
12.3Mn
3.5Mn
10
1980 2016
Average Tariff Rates
10%
5 - 9%
0
1990 2014
US Deportations Since 2008
(Thousands)
Non-Criminal Immigration Violator
500
Convicted Criminal
400
5%
2.5 - 2.9%
300
200
100
0%
US
China
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
You May Not Know: Over 2.75mm immigrants have been deported over President Obama’s two terms, the most of any US
President. President-Elect Trump’s inner circle of economic advisors includes an interesting mix of hard-core fiscal conservatives
(Mulvaney) and populists (Bannon), free trade proponents (Kudlow) and those more vocally critical of trade policy (Ross),
experienced internationalists (Tillerson) and more active proponents of a more inward looking economic policy (Navarro).
Deutsche Bank
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. CNN. Bloomberg. Pew Research.
38

20. Tweet Tweet
Trump Tweets Since the Election
Cumulative Post-Election Tweets by @RealDonaldTrump
Breakdown of
Trump Post-Election Tweets
240
180
222
Economy
11%
Foreign
Policy
8%
Election
30%
120
Other
15%
60
Media
18%
Transition
18%
2016 Post-Election Tweets: 222
0
Nov 09, 2016 Dec 28, 2016
You May Not Know: The theme of Trump as “disrupter” will clearly extend to White House communication. But the White House
is not the only US Government agency using twitter (many signed up in 2009). The DOJ convened a working group for Twitter use
in 2010. The CIA sent its first tweet in 2014. The EPA has 29 pages of procedural guidelines on use of social media. The
Education Department has 4 people contributing to financial aid-related tweets, and the SEC has regional “Twitter committees”
with rotating officials to write tweets.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Twitter. NY Times. WSJ. Data from Nov 8, 2016 to Dec 31, 2016.
Note: Number of tweets and topic categorization based on the views of CIB Capital Markets Strategy team. Does not include
tweets subsequently deleted.
39

Deutsche Bank
III. Policy Priorities

III. Policy Priorities
"My style of deal-making is quite simple and straightforward. I aim very
high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I'm
after. Sometimes I settle for less than I sought, but in most cases I still end
up with what I want."
1987
"I never get too attached to one deal or one approach. For starters, I keep a
lot of balls in the air, because most deals fall out, no matter how promising
they seem at first. In addition, once I've made a deal, I always come up with
at least a half dozen approaches to making it work, because anything can
happen, even to the best-laid plans."
"People may not always think big themselves, but they can still get very
excited about those who do. That's why a little hyperbole never hurts.
People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and
the most spectacular."
- Donald Trump, American businessman and President-Elect of the United States
Deutsche Bank
41

1/4/2017
21. Legislative Priorities
Priority #1: ObamaCare
Annual ACA Coverage Expenses
($, Bn)
250
$210Bn
Expected Trump Agenda
Via Budget Reconciliation (January and April 2017)
• FY 2017 Budget Reconciliation (January): “Repeal”
ObamaCare taxes and spending with a “bridge to replace” at
later date
• FY 2018 Budget Reconciliation (April): Comprehensive US
Tax Reform to then follow later in 2017
50
2015 2025
Priority #2:
Comprehensive Tax Reform
US Federal Revenues
($, Trn)
3.5
2.5
1.5
Bush Tax Cuts
0.5
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
$3.3Trn
Via Executive Order (First 100 Days)
• Immigration (border security, not comprehensive reform)
• Deregulation (environment, energy, financial sector,
business)
• International trade
• Lobbying ban for former officials (5 years)
Other Priorities
• Senate Confirmations & Supreme Court nominee
(January – March)
• Dodd-Frank revisions (repeal highly unlikely)
• Infrastructure (GOP opposition likely)
• Rebuilding defense (raise spending caps)
• Extend March 16, 2017 debt ceiling
You May Not Know: By our count (see Appendix C), President Barack Obama executed 261 executive orders between 2009 and
2016. The new 115 th US Congress will convene on January 3 rd with a stated goal of “reclaiming” Congressional authority under
Article 1 of the Constitution, which they believe President Obama “whittled away” over the last 8 years.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services. Bloomberg. New York Times. Politico. WSJ. Peck, Madigan, Jones.
ObamaCare cost measured according to the March 2015 Baseline.
42

22. Policy Shift: Mars & Venus
Trump Fiscal Easing
US Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)
4%
Reagan Bush Clinton Bush Obama Trump
2%
20%
Yellen Monetary Tightening
Volcker Greenspan Bernanke Yellen
Reagan Bush Clinton Bush Obama Trump
0%
-2%
Baseline
(-3.3%)
15%
-4%
-6%
10%
Unemployment
-8%
-10%
Trump
Tax Plan
(-5.3%)
5%
Fed Funds
Fed
Projections
-12%
1980 2000 2020
0%
1980 2000 2020
You May Not Know: The relative strength of Trump’s fiscal easing and Yellen’s monetary tightening will be a critical dynamic for
global markets in 2017. With US economic numbers strong, and the new administration active in the first 100 days, look for a Fed
that steps beyond a highly sensitive approach to data releases. While Yellen remains decidedly dovish, the Fed may become more
strategic in 2017 with the potential to tighten more rapidly than markets expect.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Wall Street Journal. Congressional Budget Office. Federal Reserve. DB Global Markets Research. Financial Times
(Mohamed El-Erian). Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
43

23. ObamaCare Repeal & Replace
% of total population
15%
10%
Total Expenditures
($, Bn)
400
300
200
100
14%
Uninsured Americans
Represents 18mm
newly insured people
US Medicaid Spending
ObamaCare expanded
Medicaid in 31 States
(10mm people)
0
1975 1985 1995 2005
9%
5%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$397Bn
Expectations
Under President Trump
Step #1: “Repeal” ObamaCare Tax & Spending
Provisions
Timing: Jan – Feb 2017
Possible Guidepost: HR 3762, passed by Congress in Dec
2015 (“Restoring Americans Healthcare Freedom
Reconciliation Act”)
• Repeal $1.3 trillion of ACA spending (over 10 years)
• Repeal $1.1 trillion of ACA taxes (over 10 years)
Step #2: “Replace” ObamaCare
Timing: Unclear (could be 1-3 years)
Possible Guidepost: GOP’s “Better Way” (only a 37 page
blueprint)
• Promotes HSAs
• Caps employer-based health insurance exclusion
• Permits sale of insurance across state lines
• High risk pools and other insurance market reforms
• Medicaid and Medicare reforms
You May Not Know: Repealing ObamaCare tax and spending provisions is the #1 priority of the GOP in 2017. The path to
replace is less clear, could be 1-3 years, and remains a concern for many GOP leaders. While Republicans will seek to shift from
an open-ended defined benefit structure, to a more cost-mitigating defined contribution scheme, the bridge to replace poses
enormous political risks. In 2016 alone, subsidies to consumers and health plans totaled $43 bn as nearly 20mm Americans have
added insurance since 2010.
Deutsche Bank
1/4/2017
Source: Peck, Madigan, Jones. Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services. Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. New York
Times. U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2014, 2015, and 2016.
Medicaid spending data adjusted for 2010 inflation.
44

1/4/2017
24. Deregulation
Selected Areas Trump Can
Act without Congress Approval
• Certain immigration controls
• Certain foreign trade abuses
• Leaving the TPP
• Labeling China an FX manipulator
• Limiting Federal regulations
• Roll back environmental regulations
• Cancel UN payments on climate change
• Rescind certain gun restrictions
• Approve Keystone Pipeline / Dakota Access
• Tighten lobbying restrictions
Rule
The CRA: 10 High Cost
Rules that Could be Repealed
Cost
($, Bn)
1. Head Start Performance Standards $5.6
2. Food Labeling Requirements $4.3
3. Food Labeling Revisions $4.3
4. Selected Medicare and Medicaid Programs $3.1
5. Child Care and Development Fund (CCDF) $3.0
6. Overtime Rule $2.9
7. Operation and Certification of Small
Unmanned Aircraft Systems
8. Customer Due Diligence Requirements for
Financial Institutions
9. Exploratory Drilling on the Arctic Outer
Continental Shelf
10. Disclosure of Payments by Resource
Extraction Issuers
Total
$2.6
$2.5
$2.1
$1.3
$31.6 Bn
You May Not Know: The 1996 Congressional Review Act (CRA) allows Congress with a simple majority to pass disapproval
resolutions to unwind regulations passed over the prior 60 legislative days. House Republicans also plan to pass the “REINS Act”,
which requires Congressional approval for regulations > $100 mm. Lastly, Trump himself can also issue or repeal dozens of
executive orders without Congressional approval.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Politico. CRA. The Hill. Peck, Madigan, Jones.
45

1/4/2017
25. Infrastructure Spending
US Infrastructure Considerations
US Net Gov’t Debt to GDP
80%
60%
Total Gross US Gov’t
Debt: $20 Trillion
74%
The Ross-Navarro
Public-Private Investment Proposal
• Target Size: $1 Trillion (over 10 years)
• Required Equity: $167 Billion
40%
25%
• Avg. Project Leverage: 5x
20%
0%
1980 2015
Federal Highway Trust Fund
($, Bn)
• Avg. Financing Rates: 4.5 – 5%
• Target Financing Term: 20 – 30 years
50
Outlays
• Assumed Equity Returns: 9 – 10%
40
Revenue and interest
Differential:
$16 Bn
• Government Tax Credits: Equal to 82% of equity
30
2014 2019 2024
• Implied Reduction to Debt Cost: 18 – 20%
You May Not Know: President-elect Trump is likely to fall short of anything close to his $1 trillion of proposed infrastructure
spending. While fiscally conservative Republicans are highly unlikely to fund it with deficit build, privately funded models such as
the Ross-Navarro plan are likely to fall far short of its ambitious target size. Sector interest would also vary widely with the largely
publicly held transport industries likely to attract much less investment than energy and utility projects.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Bloomberg. WSJ. Congressional Budget Office. BMI Research. Wilbur Ross. Peter Navarro (UC-Irvine Professor).
Trump advisory team.
46

1/4/2017
26. Rebalance US – China Relations
Rising US – China Trade Deficit
US Balance of Trade with China
($, Bn)
0
-100
-200
-300
2001: China
joins WTO
Trump China
Policy Considerations
More Likely Policy Actions:
• Designate China a “currency manipulator” (even if
criteria questionable)
• Initiate WTO trade cases (anti-dumping, IP,
subsidies)
• Intensified Sino-US competition (Asia & globally)
-400
$366 Bn
1985 1995 2005 2015
VNM
4%
MEX
8%
US Trade Deficit Breakdown
In absolute terms
Other
19%
JPN
9% DEU
10%
CHN
50%
On a value-added basis
ITA
4%
IRL
4%
MYS
4%
VNM
5%
TWN
7%
Others
19%
MEX
8%
CHN
16%
JPN
13%
DEU
11%
KOR
9%
• Tighter investment restrictions on China in the
US (via the Committee on Foreign Investment in the
US – CFIUS)
Less Likely, but Possible:
• Impose tariffs of 15% for 150 days (1974 Trade Act,
Sec 122)
• Raise tariffs outside WTO procedures (1974 Trade
Act, Sec 301)
• “National security”-based economic actions
• Significant increase in US Asia-Pacific military
“presence”
You May Not Know: The US last labeled China a currency manipulator in 1994. We think it is very possible that Trump will do so
in his first 100 days (even if criteria not technically met). Doing so is largely symbolic, and triggers a lengthy, multi-step
negotiation. By comparison, WTO cases or punitive tariffs are more likely to garner retaliatory actions from China (countervailing
tariffs, order cancelations, investment restrictions, CNY devaluation, UST sales, civil and criminal cases).
Deutsche Bank
Source: BMI. DB Global Markets Research (Zhang, Kojodjojo). BMI Research. Baker McKenzie. Scowcroft Group.
47

1/4/2017
27. Tough on Trade
40%
30%
20%
10%
Trade Since NAFTA
Exports and Imports as % of GDP
US
69%
0%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
37%
28%
More Likely:
Expectations
Under President Trump
• Withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
• Renegotiate NAFTA (NAFTA Article 2202)
• TTIP with Europe on permanent hold
• More unilateral deals (Post-Brexit US-UK deal)
• Commerce Secretary to identify all overseas trade
violations
• USTR to initiate WTO cases (anti-dumping, IP,
subsidies)
• Pressure US corporates on offshoring
• Push for “border-adjusted taxes” within tax reform
Less Likely:
• WTO withdrawal (requires 6 months notice)
• NAFTA withdrawal (requires 6 months notice)
• Raise tariffs outside WTO procedures (1974 Trade
Act, Sec 301)
You May Not Know: Trump’s rejection of the TPP deal is a watershed moment in US trade policy, as the US has never previously
failed to ratify a major negotiated trade agreement. It is also worth noting that while Congress is required to ratify new trade deals,
a US President may terminate such deals unilaterally without Congressional approval. Getting behind “border-adjusted taxes” in
the US tax reform agenda may offer a more attractive path to Trump than the WTO and temporary tariffs.
Deutsche Bank
Source: World Bank. BMI. DB Global Markets Research (Zhang, Kojodjojo). BMI Research. Baker McKenzie. Scowcroft.
48

28. Dodd-Frank Revisions
Dodd-Frank Rulemaking Process
Status of Dodd-Frank Rules as of November 29, 2016:
Missed
Deadline –
Proposed:
29
No
Deadline -
Not
Proposed:
48
No
Deadline –
Proposed:
6
More Likely:
Expectations
Under President Trump
• More accommodative DF enforcement
• Significant leadership changes at Agencies
• Possible governance changes at CFPB
• More flexibility on Volcker
• Slowdown in SIFI designations
• Regulatory relief for smaller banks
Missed
Deadline -
Not
Proposed:
32
Finalized:
275
(71%)
Total Rule-Making Requirements: 391
• Fed preserves independence from Congress
Less Likely:
• Repeal of Dodd-Frank
• Replace Dodd-Frank with Financial CHOICE Act 2.0
• Unwind Dodd-Frank derivatives title
• Repeal Volcker Rule
• Elimination of CFPB
• “Modernizing” of Glass Steagall
• Taylor rule prescriptions for Fed rate policy
You May Not Know: Substantive changes to Dodd-Frank are likely to be limited. Most financial regs are statutes, not executive
orders, and so not easily repealed. While the House may pass some version of the Financial Choice Act 2.0, DF repeal in the
Senate is unlikely (given 60 vote filibuster proof threshold required) . Where DF rules have been finalized, unwind also becomes
difficult. Look for most change to occur through more accommodative enforcement and high turnover among senior regulatory
staff (as happening now at SEC).
Deutsche Bank
Source: Davis Polk. Peck, Madigan, Jones. Brookings. House Financial Choice Act. WSJ. Financial Times.
49

1/4/2017
29. US Energy Independence
Net US Energy Imports
(% of Total)
30%
US Energy Imports
Expectations
Under President Trump
• Progress on US energy independence
• Keystone and Dakota Access pipeline approvals
20%
10%
12.3%
• Repeal the Clean Power Plan (coal)
• Deregulate drilling
0%
2004 2008 2012 2016
US Daily Production
US Crude Oil Production
(Million barrels/day)
10
8
6
4
8.8
m/b/d
• Open on and offshore leasing of Federal lands
• Rescind restrictive Obama executive orders
• Consider withdrawal from Paris Climate Agreement
• Renegotiate NAFTA (nat gas, oil, electricity,
pipelines)
2
0
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017E
• Revisit Iran nuclear deal and sanctions
You May Not Know: Net US oil imports have been in decline for a decade (2006). The US is closer today to energy
independence than at any time since the early 1970s. Further, the most significant obstacles to increased production are less
political and technological than economic (i.e., oil prices). In theory, the Iran nuclear deal is vulnerable because Obama completed
it via executive order, without Congressional ratification. Doing so, however, could be challenging given lack of P5+1 support.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Trump’s America First Energy Plan. DB Global Markets Research (Hsueh). Wall Street Journal. Financial Times. EIA. Wood McKenzie.
BMI Research.
50

1/4/2017
30. “Eyes” on the Fed
Fed Funds
2.0%
Fed Tightening Expectations
Current
Trump Campaign Proposals
• Replace Yellen in 2018
1.5%
• Congressional oversight / audit of Fed
Financial CHOICE Act Proposals
1.0%
Pre-Election
• Subject Fed monetary policy to Taylor Rule formula
• Full FOMC meeting transparency
0.5%
• Annual Fed audits to Congress
• Re-examine Fed dual mandate
• Limit Fed emergency lending authority
0.0%
2017 2018 2019
• Changes to Fed Supervisory role
You May Not Know: The House will continue its work on Financial Choice Act 2.0 in 2017, but we believe passage in the Senate
is unlikely. It is still too early to tell if President-Elect Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will follow-thru on campaign rhetoric
to replace Yellen in 2018, and seek legislative changes to curtail Fed independence. This much does seem true: the Fed has
never had fewer friends in Washington.
Deutsche Bank
Source: House Financial Choice Act. Davis Polk. Financial Times. Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
December forward contracts shown except for pre-election when November was the actively-traded contract.
51

Deutsche Bank
IV. Comprehensive US Tax Reform

IV. Comprehensive US Tax Reform
(1957)
“If you saw Atlas, the giant who holds the world on his shoulders,
if you saw that he stood, blood running down his chest, his knees
buckling, his arms trembling but still trying to hold the world aloft
with the last of his strength, and the greater his effort, the heavier
the world bore down upon his shoulders - what would you tell
him?"
“I... Don't know. What... Could he do? What would you tell him?"
“To Shrug.“
- Ayn Rand, Russian-American novelist, philosopher and playwright
Deutsche Bank
53

31. Backdrop: Dysfunction Junction
Unrepatriated US Foreign Earnings
($, Trn)
$3
$2.5 Trn
Key Features of
Comprehensive Tax Reform
Current
House
GOP Plan
$2
System Worldwide Territorial
Tax Rate 35% 20%
$1
CapEx
Depreciation
Over time
Immediately
$0
2002 2015
US Inversion Tally
Value of completed US tax inversion deals
($, Bn)
Interest Expense Deductible Not deductible
Basis for
Taxation
Profits
Sales
$150
$120
$90
$60
$30
$0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Overseas
Earnings
Border
Adjustments
Pay if repatriate
(less foreign tax
credits)
You May Not Know: In its totality, US Federal tax laws today fill approximately 70,000 pages (3x 1986 levels). Recent estimates
suggest Americans spend over $400 Bn annually (and 8.9 Bn hours) complying with the tax code. The outdated US corporate tax
system effectively encourages debt, re-domiciling, overseas investment and innovation, job outsourcing and tax avoidance.
None
Not taxed
(one time
transition tax on
current overseas
earnings at
8.75%)
On imports only
(exports exempt)
Deutsche Bank
Source: Wall Street Journal (Greg Ip). Company Reports. Tax Foundation. Tax Policy Center. Deloitte. GOP Tax Plan (“A Better Way”).
54

US
France
Belgium
Italy
Germany
Australia
Mexico
Japan
Portugal
Luxembourg
Greece
New Zealand
Canada
Spain
Norway
Israel
Austria
Netherlands
Korea
Chile
Denmark
Slovak Republic
Sweden
Switzerland
Estonia
Finland
Iceland
Turkey
UK
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Slovenia
Ireland
32. Pillars of Corporate Tax Reform
#1: Lower the Rates #2: Move to Territorial
US Corporate Statutory and Effective Tax Rates
OECD Tax Systems
40%
39%*
50%
US Statutory Corporate Tax Rate
Territorial Tax System
Worldwide Tax System
40%
30%
35%
30%
S&P 500 Effective Tax Rate
27%
20%
20%
Brady / Ryan Tax proposal (20%)
10%
Trump Tax proposal (15%)
10%
0%
0%
1969 1984 1999 2014
You May Not Know: Globally, only 2 of 173 countries have a higher corporate tax rate than the US (Chad & UAE). Countries have
moved away from worldwide tax systems, with 33 countries using it a century ago, 24 in the 1980s, and only 7 today (including the
US). The transition to a territorial system would entail a one-time deemed repatriation (i.e., “mandatory” taxation at 8.75%) of
currently deferred foreign profits, and a 100% exemption for dividends from foreign jurisdictions going forward (i.e., 0% tax).
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Global Markets Research (Bianco). OECD. Tax Foundation. Tax Policy Center. Deloitte. GOB Tax Plan (“A Better Way”).
* Includes central government income tax rate and sub-central rates for combined 2016 tax rate.
55

33. The Path
2 Budget Reconciliations
Reconciliation #1
Timing: Jan – Feb 2017
Budget: FY 2017
Purpose: ObamaCare Repeal
• Unwind ObamaCare taxes and spending
• “Replace” to happen at later date
Reconciliation #2
Timing: Likely April 2017
• Passage into law in Q3 or Q4 (if successful)
• Effective date could vary (i.e., retroactive)
Budget: FY 2018
Precedents for Legislation
Through Budget Reconciliation
Year President Policy
1981 Reagan Tax Cuts
1990 Bush Tax Increases
1993 Clinton
Fiscal Stimulus
(tax & spend)
1997 Clinton Tax Cuts
2001 Bush Tax Cuts
2003 Bush Tax Cuts
2005 Bush
Reduced Government Spending
(Medicare, Medicaid, Student loans)
2005 Bush Tax Cut Extension
Purpose: Comprehensive US Tax Reform
2010 Obama ObamaCare Tax & Spend
You May Not Know: Article 1, Section 7 of the US Constitution states that all bills for raising revenue (i.e., taxation) shall originate
in the House of Representatives. The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 created the reconciliation process whereby bills on
budgetary matters only (i.e., tax) can be passed with a simple majority (not subject to 60 person Senate filibuster) on a more rapid
timeline (debate limited to 24 hours). The weakness of this tool is that many of the tax code changes would not be “permanent,”
but rather would sunset, creating a “fiscal cliff” in 10 years (2027).
Deutsche Bank
Source: CIB Capital Markets Strategy. Tax Policy Center. Tax Foundation. Deloitte.
56

34. Expected Timeline
Target Timetable for US Tax Reform
(Via Two Budget Reconciliations: FY 2017 and FY 2018)
January –
February 2017
April 2017
May 2017
May / June 2017
June / July 2017
July / Early
August 2017
• House & Senate pass “shell” FY 2017 budget (for ObamaCare unwind)
− Includes “reconciliation instructions” with target number for Congress on repeal of ObamaCare
spending and taxes (i.e., $1.3 trillion of spending and $1 trillion of taxes over a decade)
− House and Senate pass and reconcile bills
− President Trump signs ObamaCare funding and spending cutbacks into law
• House & Senate continue drafting detailed comprehensive tax reform legislation
• House & Senate pass FY 2018 budget (for comprehensive tax reform)
− Includes “reconciliation instructions” with target number for Congress on comprehensive tax
reform
• House Ways & Means (W&M) and Senate Finance Committees mark up their respective
comprehensive tax reform bills
• House passes its own comprehensive tax reform bill
• Senate passes its own comprehensive tax reform bill
• Timing could slip to Q3
• Conference Committee works to reconcile differences in House and Senate comprehensive tax
reform bills
• Timing could slip to Q3 – Q4
• House and Senate pass reconciled comprehensive tax reform bill
• President Trump signs comprehensive tax reform into law
• Timing could slip to Q4 or early 2018
You May Not Know: Republicans will only get two bites at the apple with the budget reconciliation tool in calendar year 2017.
Look for them to pass a “shell” FY 2017 budget in January to facilitate “reconciliation instructions” to repeal ObamaCare spending
and taxes. Then in April, look for Republicans to commence work on the FY 2018 budget, paving the way for passage of more
comprehensive US tax reform (corporate, international and individual) as early as July 2017 (more likely Q4 2017, if at all).
Deutsche Bank
Source: Tax Foundation. Tax Policy Center. Deloitte. WSJ. Peck, Madigan, Jones.
57

35. The Math
Non-Gov’t Scoring of “Selected” Brady / Ryan Tax Provisions
Revenue Reductions
Revenue Additions
($, Bn)
Static
Basis
Dynamic
Basis
($, Bn)
Static
Basis
Dynamic
Basis
Individual Tax:
Individual Tax:
Lower Individual tax rates (-$1,954) (-$1,641)
Lower cap gains and div taxes (-$609) (-$531)
Eliminate most deductions
(except mortgage interest &
charitable)
Corporate Tax:
$2,331 $2,218
Corporate Tax:
Lower corporate tax rates (-$1,807) (-$1,325)
Border Adjusted Taxes $1,069 $936
Eliminate debt interest
deductions
$1,194 $1,176
Full & immediate capex expense (-$2,236) (-$883)
Eliminate most deductions, limit
NOLs
$701 $677
Move to territorial system (-$160) (-$160)
Deemed repatriation of foreign
earnings
$185 $185
You May Not Know: Importantly, the CBO/JCT is the only score that matters for budget reconciliation, and they have not yet
scored the Brady/Ryan tax plan due to its limited detail. As a general rule of thumb, every 1% reduction in the US corporate tax
rate costs $100 billion in revenue over 10 years. Other sources of revenue are therefore critical to lowering the statutory rate. On
a static basis, the comprehensive Brady / Ryan plan would reduce total US Government revenue by $2.4 trillion over a decade.
Deutsche Bank
Source: The Tax Foundation.
The CBO and JCT have not yet scored the comprehensive Brady – Ryan tax reform plan. Dynamic basis scoring based on positive
assumptions related to growth and macroeconomic variables.
58

36. The ObamaCare Taxes
10 Yr Impact of ObamaCare Repeal Largest ObamaCare Taxes
Description
CBO / JCT Score
Largest Taxes
CBO / JCT Score
Reduced ObamaCare Spending
$1.4 Trillion
Medicare taxes (3.8%)
(payroll, cap gains and dividends)
Cadillac Tax on Premium Plans (40%)
$318 Bn
$111 Bn
Most
Market
Relevant
Employer Mandate Penalty
$106 Bn
Tax on Health Insurers
$102 Bn
Reduced ObamaCare Tax
$1.05 Trillion
Individual Mandate Penalty
$55 Bn
Revenue
Tax on Drug Manufacturers
$34 Bn
Tax on Medical Device Manufacturers
$29 Bn
Reduced Fiscal Deficit
(without macro-economic benefits)
$282 Billion
Flexible Spending Account Cap
Codify IRS Economic Substance Doctrine
$24 Bn
$5.3 Bn
Tax on HSAs
$4.5 Bn
Reduced Fiscal Deficit
(with macro-economic benefits)
$474 Billion
Tax on OTC Medications
Subtotal
$4.0 Bn
$793 Bn
Other Taxes & Revenue Effects
$260 Bn
Total Gross Tax Revenues
$1,053 Bn
You May Not Know: In December 2015, the Republican Congress passed a bill (H.R. 3762) to repeal much of the ACA, but it was
subsequently vetoed by President Obama. Nonetheless, the bill is likely a good roadmap for Republicans action on ObamaCare in
Jan-Feb 2017. Though the plan for “replace” remains unclear, look for Republicans to quickly repeal nearly $1.4 trillion of
ObamaCare spending, and $1.1 trillion of new ObamaCare taxes over the next 10 years.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Based on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) analysis of HR 3762 from
December 2015. Largest ObamaCare tax list based on revised JCT scoring in 2012.
59

37. Border-Adjusted Taxes
G7 Tax Systems
10 Considerations on
Border-Adjusted Taxes
Share of tax system revenue from VAT
Share of tax system revenue from corp taxes
France
14%
42.5%
10 Considerations
1. Radical Departure: Destination-based principle (with exports
exempt)
2. Revenue: Generate $1.1 trillion over 10 years
Germany
4%
31.9%
3. Tax Rate Impact: Critical to reducing corp rate below 25 -
27%
Japan
28.4%
24%
4. Industry Impact: Refiners and retail hit hard
5. House Plan: Included in Brady – Ryan Plan
UK
9.3%
27.9%
6. Senate Plan: Not clear; more skepticism given radical shift
Italy
8.5%
25.1%
7. Trump Plan: Not included, but could be attractive alternative
to tariffs
Canada
US
14.3%
14.7%
0%
14.5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
8. VAT: Conceptually similar (but GOP applies to corp taxes
only)
9. US Trade Advantage: Minimal, because USD would adjust
10. WTO Compliance: VATs (yes); border adjusted taxes
(unclear)
You May Not Know: Border adjusted taxes would generate $1.1 trillion of revenue over 10 years and have thus become an
important piece of US tax reform. Without border adjusted taxes, it will be difficult to lower the US statutory corporate tax rate
below 25-27%. While many countries apply VAT taxes at each stage of production but then remove them at the border (similar
concept), the US would be the first major country to adopt such a border-adjusted corporate tax system.
Deutsche Bank
Source: OECD. Wall Street Journal. Tax Foundation, Tax Policy Center, Deloitte
60

38. Corporate Tax Reform
Comprehensive US Tax Reform
Current Trump Brady / Ryan
Top Corporate Rate 35% 15% 20%
Top Pass-Through
Rate
39.6% • 15%
• May elect 15% corp rate or
individual rate
• 2 nd level tax on large distributions to
owners
Capital Investment Depreciation schedule Optional immediate and full
write-off for US manufacturing
25% top rate to active
business income of sole
proprietorships and pass-through
entities
Immediate and full
write-off except for land purchase
Amortization of
Intangibles
15yr amortization schedule N/A • Full expensing in year one
Interest Expense
Deductibility
Yes
Non-deductible if elect to
expense capital investment
• Effectively eliminated
• Only to offset interest income
(unlimited carry forward of expense)
• Special rules for financial services
companies to come
Carried Interest Long-term capital gains rate Ordinary income N/A
Research Credit
Up to 20% credit for
expenses over base amount
Retain
Retain
Domestic Production
Deduction
Up to 9% of qualified production
activities income
Eliminate most credits except for R&D Repeal
Deutsche Bank
Source: CIB Capital Markets Strategy. Shearman & Sterling. Davis Polk. Deloitte. A Better Way. WSJ. Tax Policy Center. Tax Foundation. CBO.
61

38. Corporate Tax Reform (Cont’d)
Comprehensive US Tax Reform
Current Trump Brady / Ryan
NOLs
Carry back (2 yrs) &
Forward (20 yrs)
N/A
• No carry back
• Indefinite carry forward, adjusted for
inflation
• Only applicable to offset 90% of
taxable income
Corporate AMT Yes Repeal Repeal
Energy Tax Credits
For fossil fuels, alternative energy,
and energy efficiency
Repeal most except R&D
N/A
Healthcare Benefits
Employer-provided health benefits
excluded from income and payroll
tax
N/A
• Limit exclusion for employerprovided
health benefits
• New refundable credit for individuals
without workplace coverage
ObamaCare
Over a dozen new taxes ($1 trillion
over 10 years)
Repeal
Repeal
Employer provided
Child Care Benefits
• 25% credit on expenses for on-site
child care
• 10% credit on expenses for
resources / referral Max credit
$150,000 / yr
General call to increase credit cap
N/A
Deutsche Bank
Source: CIB Capital Markets Strategy. Shearman & Sterling. Davis Polk. Deloitte. A Better Way. WSJ. Tax Policy Center. Tax Foundation. CBO.
62

39. International Tax Reform
Comprehensive US Tax Reform
Current Trump Brady / Ryan
System Worldwide (with deferral) No change Territorial (with 100% participation
exemption for foreign dividends)
Deferred Overseas
Earnings
Taxed at full corporate rate with
allowance for foreign tax credits
upon repatriation
• One-time mandatory deemed
repatriation
• 10%
• One-time mandatory deemed
repatriation
• Cash: 8.75%
• Non-cash: 3.5%
• Payable over 8 years
Future Foreign
Income
Taxed at applicable corporate
rate when repatriated
Tax profits as earned
(ends deferral, maintains foreign
tax credits)
100% dividend exemption on foreign
earnings (0% tax)
Border Adjustability No No Destination-based cash flow tax on
jurisdiction of consumption, not
production (exports exempt)
Inversions 20% foreign ownership threshold Discouraged via more competitive
tax code
Discouraged via more competitive
tax code
Deutsche Bank
Source: CIB Capital Markets Strategy. Shearman & Sterling. Davis Polk. Deloitte. A Better Way. WSJ. Tax Policy Center. Tax Foundation. CBO.
63

40. Individual Tax Reform
Comprehensive US Tax Reform
Current Trump Brady / Ryan
Rates
• 7 brackets
• Top rate: 39.6%
• Additional 0.9% Medicare tax
• 3 brackets
• Top rate: 33.0%
• Repeal 0.9% Medicare tax
• 3 brackets
• Top rate: 33.0%
• Repeal 0.9% Medicare tax
Individual AMT Yes Repeal Repeal
Capital Gains &
Dividends
• Short term: income rate
• Long term: 20%
• Additional 3.8% net investment
income tax for high earners
• Dividends taxed as ordinary income
• Retain current-law rates and
brackets
• Repeal 3.8% additional
Medicare tax
• Tax at ordinary income rates
with 50% exclusion
(effective top rate is 16.5%)
• Repeal 3.8% additional
Medicare tax
Interest Income Taxed as ordinary income N/A Tax at ordinary income rates
with 50% exclusion
(effective top rate is 16.5%)
Standard
Deduction
$6,300 / $12,600
(single / joint filing)
• $15,000 / $30,000
• Personal exemptions eliminated
• $12,000 / $24,000
• $18,00 single filers with child
• Personal exemptions
eliminated
Deutsche Bank
Source: CIB Capital Markets Strategy. Shearman & Sterling. Davis Polk. Deloitte. A Better Way. WSJ. Tax Policy Center. Tax Foundation. CBO.
64

40. Individual Tax Reform (Cont’d)
Comprehensive US Tax Reform
Current Trump Brady / Ryan
Mortgage Interest
Itemized deduction of interest up to
$1mm in acquisition indebtedness and
$100,000 in home equity indebtedness
Itemized deductions capped at
$100,000 and $200,000 for single
and joint filers, respectively
Retain current system
Charitable Giving Fully deductible Itemized deductions capped at
$100,000 and $200,000 for single
and joint filers, respectively
Retain current system
State / Local
Deduction
Itemized deduction of state / local
taxes or general sales tax
Itemized deductions capped at
$100,000 and $200,000 for single
and joint filers, respectively
Repeal
Estate Tax • Top rate 40%
• Exemption of $5.45 mm per spouse
for 2016
• Additional tax may apply to
generation-skipping transfers
• Repeal but certain appreciated
assets subject to capital gains
tax if > $10 mm
• Disallows contributions to
private charities established by
descendents
Repeal
ObamaCare
• 0.9% Medicare Hospital Insurance
• 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax
Repeal
Repeal
Retirement Savings
Plans
Permitted with contribution limits
(Roth, 401Ks)
Retained
• Minor changes possible
• Additional new vehicles
possible
Deutsche Bank
Source: CIB Capital Markets Strategy. Shearman & Sterling. Davis Polk. Deloitte. A Better Way. WSJ. Tax Policy Center. Tax Foundation. CBO.
65

Deutsche Bank
V. 2017 Outlook & Implications

V. 2017 Outlook & Implications
1936
“Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the
instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large
proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous
optimism rather than mathematical expectations, whether moral
or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to
do something positive, the full consequences of which will be
drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the
result of animal spirits — a spontaneous urge to action rather
than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of
quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.”
- John Maynard Keynes, British economist and founder of
modern macroeconomics
Deutsche Bank
67

1/4/2017
41. Make Growth Great Again
Trump’s Pro Growth Agenda: Tax Reform, Deregulation & Infrastructure
From Deflation to Reflation
5Y 5Y Inflation Swap
3.0%
1.5%
2014 2015 2016
120
Business & Consumer Confidence
Consumer Confidence Small Business Optimism
114
100
80
60
40
20
0
2001 2016
110
100
2.4%
98
90
80
2001 2016
US GDP Growth
US GDP Growth (Q/Q Annualized)
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Pre Election Forecasts
Post Election Forecasts
1.0%
2.0%
2.5%
3.5%
4.0% 4.0%
3.5%
Annual GDP Forecasts (Y/Y)
2016 2017 2018
1.5% 2.4% 3.6%
3.0%
2.5%
Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18
You May Not Know: The Conference Board’s US consumer confidence index has jumped 13 points since the US election, and is
now at its highest reading in 15 years (August 2001). On the back of Trump’s pro-growth agenda, 2017 US GDP growth is
projected to be approximately double other developed markets: EU (1.3%), the UK (1.2%), and Japan (1.1%).
Deutsche Bank
Source: Bloomberg. Conference Board Consumer Confidence. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. DB Global Markets
Research (LaVorgna). Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
68

42. US as G10 Outlier
(Deficit % of GDP)
Fiscal Easing
4%
0%
Baseline
(-3.3%)
-4%
-8%
-12%
Trump
Tax Plan
(-5.3%)
1972 1988 2004 2020
(Fed Funds)
6%
4%
2%
US as G10 Outlier
Monetary Tightening
Fed Forecasts
3 Hikes in 2017
0%
2004 2010 2017
Yield Differentials
2Yr
10Yr
195bps
137bps
110bps
224bps
240bps
121bps
(Pages of Dodd-Frank
Regs each Yr)
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Deregulation Bias
Proposed
Final
22,296
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
44bps
72bps
You May Not Know: The US is the only G10 country pursuing significant fiscal easing, monetary tightening and a strong
deregulation bias in 2017. In fact, the differential between US and German yields is at its widest in a quarter century. The
tailwinds from this notable policy pivot will have significant implications for US equities, credit, the Dollar and rates in the year
ahead.
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Global Markets Research (Ruskin. Konstam.).Wall Street Journal. Congressional Budget Office. Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
69

43. Market Regime Change
End of the 35-Year Bond Bull Market? From Deflation to Reflation Central Banks No Longer Primary Driver
US 10yr, 1981 – 1H2016 2s-10s 10Yr UST G4 Central Bank Assets
($, Trn)
16%
1.4%
126 bps 2.8% 14
$13Trn
2.44%
2.6%
• Secular low
1.3%
12
12%
• Secular low 2.4%
in bond yields
1.2%
10
in inflation 2.2%
1.1%
2.0% 8
8%
1.0%
1.8% 6
1.6%
4%
0.9%
4
1.4%
0.8%
1.2% 2
0%
0.7%
1.0% 0
1980 2016 Jan-2016
Dec-2016
2006 2016
Rotation into Equities
Unwinding Post-GFC
Financial Underweight
Earnings-Driven Equity Markets
(USD, Trn) S&P 500 Sectors Post-Election 2017 EPS Growth
US Election
(Y/Y)
68
54 20%
Fins +17% 20%
66
64
62
60
58
56
Jan-2016
Global Stocks
Global Bonds
52
50
48
46
44
42
Dec-2016
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Nov-2016
Utilities (-1%)
Dec-2016
-10%
2015 2016 2017
You May Not Know: Since the US election, global bonds lost over $3 trillion, while global equity market increased by over $3
trillion. While bond yields and inflation have likely hit their secular lows, the stock market is transitioning from rates to earnings
driven. Investors, meanwhile, are shifting sector exposures, which includes unwinding a multi-year underweight in financials.
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
• From rates to
earnings driven
+17%
+10%
+5%
+6%
Deutsche Bank
Source: Bloomberg. BOJ, ECB, BoE, Fed. DB Global Markets Research (Bianco, Slok). Robert Shiller (Irrational Exuberance).
Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
70

Q
44. Animal Spirits Awaken
25,000
20,000
15,000
Dow Reaches Historic High US Equities Since Nov 8
DOW on Dec 31
only 1% below 20k
10,000
(1999)
5,000
10,000
(1995)
2,000
1,000
5,000
(1987)
(1972)
2x
2x
5x
0
1972 1982 1992 2002 2012
4 Benchmark Indices
Hit Simultaneous Records
Equity Index Performance Since Jan 1999
250%
150%
50%
15,000
(2013)
19,792
(2016)
Russell
NASDAQ
Dow
S&P
Russell 2000
+13.6%
S&P 500
S&P Financials
+16.5%
S&P Energy
+8.6%
S&P Materials
Dow Jones
+7.8%
NASDAQ
+4.6% +3.7%
S&P Telecom
+12.8%
S&P Industrials
+7.0%
S&P Con. Discretionary
-50%
1999 2016
+5.4%
+3.5%
You May Not Know: Since the US election, US equity market cap has risen to 39% of the world’s total, its highest level since
2006. During the 1982 to 2000 bull market, the DOW rose 10x in 18 years. It then proceeded to take 17 years to double. Since
financial crisis lows, the DOW has actually tripled. Trump’s pro-growth agenda has sparked a reawakening in markets to new
historic highs, with central banks receding to the backdrop as the primary driver of markets.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Wall Street Journal. Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
71

45. Equity Earnings Revival
20%
15%
S&P 500 Earnings Growth
S&P 500 EPS Growth
(Y/Y)
16.8%
S&P 500 Forecasts for End of 2017
Bank YE 2017 Forecast % change
Source: Bloomberg
JPMorgan 2400 7.2%
Societe Generale 2400 7.2%
10%
5%
2015 - 2016
Earnings Recession
Lasted 5 Quarters
9.8%
5.4% 6.3%
Deutsche Bank 2350* 5.0%
Citigroup 2325 3.9%
Bank of America Merrill
Lynch
2300 2.8%
Credit Suisse 2300 2.8%
0%
Goldman Sachs 2300 2.8%
-5%
Morgan Stanley 2300 2.8%
UBS 2300 2.8%
-10%
2015 2016 2017
BNP Paribas 2250 0.5%
You May Not Know: The S&P 500 returned 12% in 2016, above the 10.1% annual average return since 1926. Meanwhile, Q3
2016 S&P 500 earnings rose 2.9%, the first quarter of Y/Y growth after 5 consecutive quarters of contraction. Looking to 2017,
DB’s Bianco believes that markets may be under-pricing the EPS benefit of tax cuts. Every 5% reduction in the statutory rate from
35% boosts S&P 500 EPS by $5.
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Global Markets Research (Bianco). Wall Street S&P 500 forecasts based on Bloomberg disclosures. % change based
on change from Dec 31, 2016 close to YE 2017 forecast. * Forecast of 2400 in the case of a US corporate tax cut.
72

46. Credit Headwinds & Tailwinds
2017 Headwinds 2017 Tailwinds
Paradigm Shift to Higher Rates
Positive Growth Agenda Impact on Fundamentals
Global Developed Sovereign Debt Index
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
Jan-2016
Dec-2016
2017 Forecasts
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
HY Default Rate
5.0%
2.3%
IG Fallen Angel Volume
Headwinds:
• Interest rate risk
• Reflationary trends and budget deficits
• Higher volatility regime
• Less powerful yield-seeking technicals
• Investor rotation into equities
• Higher hedging cost for overseas investors
• Rising global political risk
• Valuation still expensive to fair value (CB distortions)
Tailwinds:
• Trump’s pro growth agenda
• Improved credit risk outlook (defaults, fallen angels)
• Stabilizing / rising oil prices
• Contained US dollar contagion (for now)
• Sector specific deregulation (financials, healthcare,
energy)
• Stronger balance sheets and less IG issuance on tax
reform
• Improved credit profiles and less IG issuance if cross
border M&A declines
You May Not Know: Historically, when the Fed raises rates, US credit spreads tend to widen modestly on the policy transition, but
then grind slowly tighter on the improved economic outlook. One important caveat on this view: as long as volatility remains low
during the Fed tightening. As for fundamentals, DB’s Melentyev has revised down his 2017 US default rate forecasts to 5.0%
(revised lower from 7.25% in early 2016 and more recently, 6.1%).
Deutsche Bank
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 31, 2016. DB Global Markets Research (Melentyev).
73

47. Rates Paradigm Shift
Post Election Paradigm Shift: Higher Rates / Steeper Curve
Trump Agenda
Bearish Rates
• Fiscal stimulus
2s-10s 2 Yr UST 10Yr UST
1.5%
150bps
1.5%
1.5%
3%
126bps
1.19%
2.5%
1.3%
1.1%
1.0%
2%
0.9%
2.44%
• Deregulation
0.7%
Jan
Dec
0.5%
Jan
Dec
1%
Jan
Dec
• Border adjusted taxes
• Yellen replacement
• Rising protectionism
3M Libor 5Yr UST 30 Yr UST
1.0%
2.5%
3.5%
1.0%
0.99%
2.0%
1.93%
2.0%
3.0%
3.0%
1.5%
1.0%
2.5%
0.5%
0.5%
2.0%
Jan
Dec
Jan
Dec
Jan
3.07%
Dec
Dec 31, 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
10Yr 2.44% 3.00% 3.60% 3.60% 3.10%
You May Not Know: As evidenced by 3M LIBOR at 1% for the first time since 2009, US rates and yield curves have embarked on
a reflationary paradigm shift higher and steeper in 2017. Given DB’s 3.6% forecast for Q2 2017, 10 year UST yields are projected
to rise 225 bps in the 12 months from the historic low of 1.36% in July 2016. DB’s Konstam has forecasted US rates to peak in Q2
2017 on expectations that the market will price higher growth more quickly than the Fed.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Bloomberg. DB Global Markets Research (Konstam. Yared). Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
74

48. Resurgent US Dollar
DXY Index
US Dollar Cycle
2017 GDP Growth (Y/Y)
Growth Divergence
2003 – 2011 2012 - 2016
US
2.4%
105
EuroArea
1.3%
100
95
90
85
80
75
(-21%) +27%
70
2002 2016
10Yr Yields
Rate Divergence
You May Not Know: Following the US election, the US Dollar surged to a 14 year high. By year-end, 10 year UST yield
differentials averaged 1.57% against the G-7, a 17 year high. DB is forecasting the Euro to trade below parity in Q2 2017 for the
first time in 14 years. According to DB’s Saravelos and Ruskin, the GOP’s border adjusted tax proposal, if included in 2017 tax
reform, stands out among Trump agenda items as being extremely bullish for the US Dollar (+15% rally).
Japan
1.2%
1.1%
DB Forecasts Dec 31, 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EUR / USD 1.05 0.95 1.00 1.10 1.20
USD / JPY 117 125 110 100 90
GBP / USD 1.23 1.06 1.18 1.38 1.45
UK
US
UK
Germany
Japan
0.20%
0.04%
1.24%
2.44%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
Deutsche Bank
Source: Bloomberg. DB Global Markets Research (Ruskin. Saravelos. Economics.) Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
75

BRL
RUB
ZAR
COP
CLP
IDR
PEN
TWD
ILS
THB
HUF
SGD
INR
KRW
CZK
RON
MYR
PHP
PLN
CNY
MXN
TRY
Exports to US, % GDP
49. EMFX & RMB Vulnerabilities
Finding a Bottom
EMFX Index
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
EMFX in 2016 EMFX in 2017
60
2013 2014 2015 2016
Increased Differentiation
EMFX / USD
30%
20%
+22%
Weaker
EM FX
Vulnerable to US Trade & Real Yields
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
MYR
CNY
PHP
TWD
KRW
ILS
CLP
SGD
THB
COP
More
Exposed
MXN
10%
0%
-10%
2%
1%
IDR
INR
RUB
RON
CZK
TRY
HUF
PLN
BRL
ZAR
-20%
(-17%)
0%
0 5 10 15
Beta of EMFX to US Real Yields
You May Not Know: Export dependent EM (especially Asia) is highly vulnerable to Trump’s inward looking trade agenda. DB’s
EM Research team envisions a 2017 EMFX outlook in two acts. Act 1 is an extension of the post-election environment into Q1
with high EM sensitivity to rising US rates, steeper yield curves, and USD strength. In Act II, as US growth/rates/USD stabilize, so
too should EM. In both phases, EM differentiation is key.
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Global Markets Research (Kalani. Baig. Giacomelli. Goel. Jiang. Ribakova). Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
EMFX performance is in local currency terms vs. USD.
76

49. EMFX & RMB Vulnerabilities
($, Bn)
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
RMB and FX
Reserves Under Pressure
China FX Reserves
Peak: $4.0 Trn
0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
$3.1
Trn
USD / CNY: 6.94
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
China’s Currency Basket
New CFETS Weightings Effective Jan 1, 2017
DB Forecasts 2017 2018 2019 2020
USD / CNY 7.40 8.10 8.10 8.10
China GDP 6.5% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Currency Weight Currency Weight
USD 22.40% SAR 1.99%
EUR 16.34% AED 1.87%
JPY 11.53% ZAR 1.78%
KRW 10.77% CHF 1.71%
AUD 4.40% MXN 1.69%
HKD 4.28% TRY 0.83%
MYR 3.75% PLN 0.66%
SGD 3.21% SEK 0.52%
GBP 3.16% NZD 0.44%
THB 2.91% DKK 0.40%
RUB 2.63% HUF 0.31%
CAD 2.15% NOK 0.27%
You May Not Know: The RMB had its worst one year fall in 2016 in over a decade. After the US election, outflows accelerated
and China strengthened its capital controls with tighter restrictions on overseas investments (M&A, real estate and non-core),
cross-border lending and cross-border risk management. Effective Jan 1, China also expanded the size of the currency basket for
its RMB peg from 13 to 24 currencies, reducing the USD weight from 26.4% to 22.4%.
Deutsche Bank
Source: Wall Street Journal. Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 31, 2016.
77

50. Supply-Driven Oil Market
OPEC Gulf:
Saudi Arabia
Iraq
UAE
#1. Enforcement of
Production Cuts?
486k
210k
139k
Post-Election 2017 Focus Areas
#2. US Production
Upside?
US Oil Rig Count
1800
1600
#3. Iran Nuclear
Deal Rescind?
Iranian Production (m/b/d)
4.0
2016E:
3.8 m/b/d
Kuwait
Qatar
131k
30k
996k
1400
1200
3.5
OPEC Non-Gulf:
Venezuela
Angola
Algeria
95k
78k
50k
1000
800
600
525
3.0
Ecuador
Gabon
26k
9k
258k
400
200
2.5
Non-OPEC
558k
Total 1,812k
0
2014 2015 2016
Dec 31, 2016 1Q 17 2Q 17 4Q 17 2018
WTI 53.72 51 51 55 62
Brent 56.82 53 53 57 65
2.0
2005 2016
You May Not Know: Despite late 2016 OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts of 1.8 m/b/d (2% of daily global production), the
world remains awash in oil. There have been 17 OPEC production cuts since 1982, with OPEC delivering on an estimated 60% of
those commitments. Turning to the US, Morningstar is predicting that the number of working rigs in the US will rise 30% in the first
6 months of 2017.
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Research (Hsueh). OPEC. EIA. Wood McKenzie. Goldman Sachs. IEA. Baker Hughes.
78

Deutsche Bank
Epilogue: 2016 In Memoriam

The Year the Music Died
“I don’t know where I’m going from here, but I promise it won’t be boring. ”
− David Bowie, Rock and Roll Hall of Fame musician (1947 – 2016)
“Sometimes ideas are coming so fast that I have to stop doing one song to get another. But I don’t forget the first one.
If it works, it will always be there. It’s like the truth: it will find you and lift you up. And if it ain’t right, it will dissolve like
sand on the beach.”
− Prince, 7x Grammy award winning singer / songwriter (1958 – 2016)
“I still believe that music is one of the greatest gifts God gave to man.”
− George Michael, Best-Selling British singer / songwriter (1963 – 2016)
“We [The Eagles] set out to become a band for our time. But sometimes, if you do a good enough job, you become a
band for all time.”
− Glenn Frey, American singer / songwriter and founding member of The Eagles (1948 – 2016)
“We need to have music that contributes to the well-being of the spirit. Music that cradles people’s lives and makes
things a little easier.”
− Merle Haggard, American country singer / songwriter (1937 – 2016)
“If I knew where the good songs came from, I would go there more often.”
− Leonard Cohen, Canadian singer / songwriter and poet (1934 – 2016)
“Most people can’t see beauty and love. I see our music as medicine.”
– Maurice White, 7x Grammy winning singer / songwriter and founding member of Earth, Wind & Fire (1941 – 2016)
“You know the Beatles seem to find a new audience each time another generation comes along.”
– George Martin, Recording studio genius and the “5th Beatle” (1926 – 2016)
“I love you in a place where there’s no space or time. I love you for my life ’cause you’re a friend of mine.”
– Leon Russell, Prolific American musician and songwriter (1942 - 2016)
Deutsche Bank
80

Historical Figures
“When the new becomes commonplace, people become accustomed to it. That’s a tribute to our sense of
adventure.”
− John Glenn, American astronaut and US Senator, first man to orbit the earth (1921 – 2016)
“There may be times when we are powerless to prevent injustice, but there must never be a time when we fail to
protest…We must take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor,
never the tormented.”
− Eliezer “Elie” Wiesel, Nobel Laureate and Holocaust survivor (1928 - 2016)
“If a problem has no solution, it may not be a problem, but a fact – not to be solved, but to be coped with over time.”
− Shimon Peres, Former Israeli President and Nobel Peace Laureate (1923 – 2016)
“A revolution is a struggle to the death between the future and the past.”
− Fidel Castro, Former President of Cuba (1926 – 2016)
“A good person can make another person good; it means that goodness will elicit goodness in the society; other
persons will also be good.”
− King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand, longest serving head of state at the time of his death (1927 – 2016)
“The court makes an amazing amount of decisions that ought to be made by the people.”
− Antonin Scalia, Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States (1936 – 2016)
“You learn something out of everything, and you come to realize more than ever that we’re all here for a certain
space of time, and then it’s going to be over, and you better make this count.”
− Nancy Reagan, First Lady of the United States, wife of Ronald Reagan (1921 – 2016)
“This is a beautiful country… I want to use the law to make sure the waters, the land, and the skies of this nation are
protected.”
− Janet Reno, First female attorney general of the United States (1938 – 2016)
“Success breeds complacency. Complacency breeds failure. Only the paranoid survive.”
– Andrew Grove, Technology pioneer, founder & CEO of Intel (1936 – 2016)
Deutsche Bank
81

The Written Word
“It’s always easy to look back and see what we were, yesterday, ten years ago. It is hard to see what we are.”
− Harper Lee, Pulitzer Prize winning author of To Kill a Mockingbird (1926 – 2016)
“Nothing gives a fearful man more courage than another’s fear.”
–Umberto Eco, Acclaimed Italian novelist and literary critic (1932 – 2016)
“The most powerful words in English are ‘Tell me a story,’ words that are intimately related to the complexity of
history, the origins of language, the continuity of the species, the taproot of our humanity, our singularity, and art
itself.”
– Pat Conroy, American author recognized as a leading figure of late-20 th century Southern literature (1945 – 2016)
“I read hungrily and delightedly, and have realized since that you can’t write unless you read.”
– William Trevor, Irish novelist, playwright & short story master (1928 – 2016)
“Remember one thing about democracy. We can have anything we want and at the same time, we always end up
with exactly what we deserve.”
– Edward Albee, 3x Pulitzer Prize winning American playwright (1928 – 2016)
“You never know what you will learn till you start writing. Then you discover truths you never knew existed.”
– Anita Brookner, Novelist and 1984 Man Booker Prize winner for Hotel du Lac (1928 - 2016)
“All the wrong people remember Vietnam. I think all the people who remember it should forget it, and all the people
who forget it should remember it.”
− Michael Herr, Vietnam War correspondent, author of Dispatches (1940 -2016)
“Tragedy, for me, is not a conflict between right and wrong, but between two different kinds of right.”
– Peter Shaffer, Award-winning English playwright (1926 – 2016)
“Every artistic expression is either influenced by or adds something to politics.”
– Dario Fo, Nobel prize winning Italian playwright (1926 – 2016)
Deutsche Bank
82

The Big Screen
“I never used to believe in fate. I used to think you make your own life, and then you call it fate.”
− Gene Wilder, Actor / screenwriter / director (1933 – 2016)
“There is no point at which you can say, ‘Well, I’m successful now. I might as well take a nap.’”
– Carrie Fisher, Actress, best known for her role as Princess Leia in Star Wars (1956 – 2016)
“I like to remember the whole of my professional life as one wonderful party.”
– Debbie Reynolds, American actress and singer, mother of Carrie Fisher (1932 – 2016)
“I’m the smallest man in show business, and I’ve got the smallest bird in Britain nesting in my garden.”
− Kenny Baker, 3’8” actor best known for portraying R2-D2 in the Star Wars franchise films (1934 – 2016)
“Talent is an accident of genes – and a responsibility.”
− Alan Rickman, Actor and director (1946 – 2016)
“It takes a lot of courage to be happy.”
– Florence Henderson, American actress known for her role as Carol Brady on The Brady Bunch (1934 – 2016)
“Without comedy as a defense mechanism I wouldn't be able to survive.”
– Garry Shandling, stand-up comedian and actor (1949 -2016)
“It's always helpful to learn from your mistakes because then your mistakes seem worthwhile.”
– Garry Marshall, Actor and director known for creating Happy Days (1934 – 2016)
“Hope springs eternal, even in politics”
− Gwen Ifill, Peabody Award-winning journalist, Presidential debate moderator (1955 – 2016)
“The helicopter is a fine way to travel, but it induces a view of the world that only God and CEOs share on a regular
basis.”
− Morley Safer, 60 Minutes broadcast journalist (1931 – 2016)
Deutsche Bank
83

Legends of Sport
“Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can reach down to the bottom of his soul and come up with the
extra ounce of power it takes to win when the match is even.”
− Muhammad Ali, Professional boxer, activist and 20 th century sports legend (1942 – 2016)
“It’s a funny thing, the more I practice the luckier I get.”
− Arnold Palmer, Golf legend winning 62 PGA Titles & 7 Majors (1929 – 2016)
“All hockey players are bilingual. They know English and profanity.”
− Gordie Howe, 26 Year NHL Hall of Fame player, 23 Year All Star (1928 – 2016)
“Here’s how I’m going to beat you. I’m going to outwork you. That’s it. That’s all there is to it.”
– Pat Summit, Women’s College Basketball Coach with most D-1 NCAA wins and 8 championships (1952 – 2016)
“Early in life I learned, just through observation, that right always wins out over wrong. If a person has good
intentions in his heart and wants to do the right thing, then there are certain ways that any obstacle can be
overcome.”
– Monte Irvin, One of the earliest MLB African-American baseball players (1919 – 2016)
“Time is something that cannot be bought, it cannot be wagered with God, and it is not in endless supply. Time is
simply how you live your life.”
− Craig Sager, Renown NBA and US Sports Journalist (1951 – 2016)
Deutsche Bank
84

Deutsche Bank
Appendix A: 2017 DB Economic &
Market Forecasts

DB Forecasts
GDP Growth (%) 2017 2018
U.S. 2.4% 3.6%
Japan 1.1 1.4
EuroZone 1.3 1.5
Germany 1.1 1.5
France 1.3 1.1
Italy 0.7 0.7
Spain 2.5 2.2
Netherlands 2.1 1.5
Belgium 1.1 1.3
Austria 1.5 1.6
Finland 1.2 1.5
Greece 1.4 1.6
Portugal 1.2 1.1
Ireland 2.8 3.0
UK 1.2 1.1
Denmark 1.7 1.8
Norway 1.6 1.8
Sweden 2.0 2.3
Switzerland 1.5 1.7
Canada 1.9 2.1
Australia 2.0 2.7
New Zealand 3.5 2.7
GDP Growth (%) 2017 2018
Czech Republic 2.6% 2.7%
Egypt 4.0 4.0
Hungary 2.6 2.7
Israel 3.3 3.5
Kazakhstan 3.6 3.6
Poland 3.2 3.4
Romania 3.0 3.0
Russia 1.6 2.0
Saudi Arabia 1.6 1.6
South Africa 1.4 2.7
Turkey 3.0 3.5
Ukraine 3.0 3.0
U.A.E 2.7 2.7
China 6.5 6.0
India 7.0 7.8
Indonesia 5.3 5.5
Thailand 2.5 2.5
Argentina 2.7 3.1
Brazil 0.5 2.4
Colombia 2.6 3.6
Mexico 1.4 2.2
Venezuela (-4.5) (-2.5)
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Global Markets Research (Economics).
86

DB Forecasts
DM
Foreign Exchange
EM
2017 2018 2019 2020
EUR / USD 0.95 1.00 1.10 1.20
USD / JPY 125 110 100 90
GBP / USD 1.06 1.18 1.38 1.45
USD / CHF 1.05 1.05 0.97 0.92
AUD / USD 0.63 0.65 0.70 0.70
NZD / USD 0.63 0.60 0.65 0.65
USD / CAD 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.20
USD / SEK 9.74 8.75 7.73 7.50
USD / NOK 9.47 8.84 8.00 7.33
2017 2018
Asia:
USD / CNY 7.40 8.10
USD / INR 72.50 75.00
USD / SGD 1.55 1.60
USD / THB 37.50 38.50
LatAm:
USD / ARS 19.00 21.47
USD / BRL 3.40 3.50
USD / COP 3,117 3,023
USD / MXN 21.50 22.00
EEMEA:
USD / RUB 57.00 55.00
USD / ZAR 12.50 12.00
USD / TRY 3.67 3.81
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Global Markets Research (FX). Period End.
87

DB Forecasts
US Treasury Rates
Rates
Central Bank Policy Rates
(%) 1Q 17 2Q 17 3Q 17 4Q 17
2Yr 1.15 1.30 1.50 1.65
5Yr 2.25 2.75 2.75 2.50
10Yr 3.00 3.60 3.60 3.10
30Yr 3.70 4.30 4.30 3.80
(%) 1Q 17 2Q 17 4Q 17
US 0.625 0.875 1.125
UK 0.25 0.25 0.25
Eurozone 0.00 0.00 0.00
Japan -0.10 -0.10 -0.10
China 1.50 1.50 1.50
India 6.00 5.50 5.50
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Global Markets Research (Rates). Period End.
88

DB Forecasts
Commodities
1Q 17 2Q 17 3Q 17 4Q 17 2018
Energy
WTI (USD / bbl) 51 51 55 55 62
Brent (USD / bbl) 53 53 57 57 65
US natural gas (USD / mmBtu) 3.25 3.10 3.00 3.15 3.01
Industrial Metals
Aluminum (USD / t) 1,690 1,680 1,650 1,590 1,620
Copper (USD / t) 5,600 5,300 5,200 5,000 5,300
Precious Metals
Gold (USD / oz) 1,200 1,150 1,220 1,230 1,280
Silver (USD / oz) 17 17 17 18 19
Palladium (USD / oz) 700 750 680 650 780
Bulk Metals
Iron Ore China CF (USD / t) 65 60 52 48 45
Deutsche Bank
Source: DB Global Markets Research (Commodities). Period Average.
89

Deutsche Bank
Appendix B: 2017 Forward Calendar

January
Key Events
• Jan 1: Malta assumes EU Council Presidency (6 months)
• Jan 3: US Congress returns from recess
• Jan 4: Eurozone inflation flash estimate (for Dec)
• Jan 6: US monthly employment report
• Jan 8: Basel Committee completes an overhaul of capital standards
• Jan 9 – 11: 15 th Annual dbAccess China Conference
• Jan 10: President Barack Obama’s Farewell Address in Chicago
• Jan 12: BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting
• Jan 13: US Retail Sales (Dec)
• Jan 13: US CPI data for December
• Jan 15: Israeli-Palestinian peace summit in Paris
• Jan 17-20: World Economic Annual Meeting (Davos, Switzerland)
• Jan 19: ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting
• Jan 19: Eurozone December inflation
• Jan 20: US Presidential Inauguration day
• Jan 25 – 27: Annual Republican Joint House and Senate Retreat in Philadelphia
• Jan 27: US 4Q Advance GDP
January 2017
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31
• Jan 28: Chinese New Year (Fire Rooster)
• Jan 30 – 31: BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting
• Jan 31- Feb 1: FOMC Meeting
• Jan 31: Eurozone inflation flash estimate (for Jan)
Milestones:
• 10 th Anniversary: The first iPhone model
Deutsche Bank
91

February
Key Events
• Feb 2: BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting
• Feb 3: US monthly employment report
• Feb 5: Super Bowl LI (Houston, Texas)
• Feb 14: Eurozone 4Q Advance GDP
• Feb 15: US Retail Sales (Jan)
• Feb 15: US CPI data for January
• Feb 21: President Trump’s first State of the Union
• Feb 22: Eurozone January inflation
• Feb 24 – Mar 1: Carnival in Rio de Janeiro
• Feb 26: 90 th Academy Awards ceremony
• Feb 28: US 4Q Preliminary GDP
• Feb: Expected timing for FY 2017 US budget reconciliation (ObamaCare
repeal and replace)
February 2017
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28
Deutsche Bank
92

March
Key Events
• Mar 2: Eurozone inflation flash estimate (for Feb)
• Mar 6 – 11: China’s annual National People’s Congress
• Mar 7: Eurozone 4Q GDP
• Mar 9: ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting
• Mar 10: US monthly employment report
• Mar 12 – Apr 3: US college basketball NCAA “March Madness” tournament
• Mar 14 – 15: FOMC meeting with economic projections
• Mar 14 – 19: World Baseball Classic
• Mar 15 – 16: BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting
• Mar 15: US Retail Sales (Feb)
• Mar 15: Dutch General Election
• Mar 15: US CPI data for February
• Mar 16: BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting
• Mar 16: Eurozone February inflation
• Mar 26: Hong Kong Chief Executive Election
• Mar 28: US 4Q GDP
• Mar 31: Eurozone inflation flash estimate (for Mar)
• Mar: UK expected to trigger Article 50
March 2017
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31
Deutsche Bank
93

April
Key Events
• Apr 3: US NCAA college basketball championship game
• Apr 6 - 9: 81 st Golf’s Masters Tournament in Augusta, Georgia
• Apr 7: US monthly employment report
• Apr 10: Effective date for new financial advisor “fiduciary rule”
• Apr 13: BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting
• Apr 14: US Retail Sales (Mar)
• Apr 14: US CPI data for March
• Apr 15: US annual tax deadline
• Apr 19: Eurozone March inflation
• Apr 21-23: 2017 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group
• Apr 22: Earth Day
• Apr 23: French Presidential Election, Round I
• Apr 25-26: BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting
• Apr 27: ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting
• Apr 28: US 1Q Advance GDP
• Apr 28: Eurozone inflation flash estimate (for Apr)
• Apr: Expected timing of the US Treasury’s semiannual currency report
• Apr: Expected timing for FY 2018 US budget reconciliation (commencing
process for more comprehensive tax reform in Q3/Q4)
~ April 2017 ~
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30
1
Milestones:
• 100 th Anniversary: Congress’ vote to enter WWI
Deutsche Bank
94

May
Key Events
• May 1 – 3: Summit of the Americas (Chicago)
• May 2 – 3: FOMC meeting
• May 5: US monthly employment report
• May 6: Kentucky Derby
• May 7: French Presidential Election, run-off round
• May 11: BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting
• May 12: US Retail Sales (Apr)
• May 12: US CPI data for April
• May 15 - 19: dbAccess Asia Conference
• May 16: Eurozone 1Q GDP
• May 17: Eurozone April inflation
• May 19: Iran Presidential Election
• May 25: OPEC Meeting
• May 26: US 1Q Preliminary GDP
• May 26 – 27: 43 rd G7 summit (Italy)
• May 31: Eurozone inflation flash estimate (for May)
~ May 2017 ~
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31
Deutsche Bank
95

June
Key Events
• Jun 2: US monthly employment report
• Jun 7: Eurozone 1Q GDP
• Jun 8: ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting
• Jun 10 – Sep 10: Expo 2017 (Astana, Kazakhstan)
• Jun 13 – 14: FOMC meeting with economic projections
• Jun 14: US Retail Sales (May)
• Jun 14: US CPI data for May
• Jun 15 - 16: BoJ Monetary Policy meeting
• Jun 15: BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting
• Jun 16: Eurozone May inflation
• Jun 20 - 21: 2017 America’s Cup
• Jun 29: US 1Q GDP
• Jun 30: Eurozone inflation flash estimate (for Jun)
• Jun: Fed releases stress test results
~ June 2017 ~
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30
Milestones:
• 50 th Anniversary: The Six-Day War
Deutsche Bank
96

July
Key Events
• Jul 1: Estonia assumes EU Council Presidency (6 months)
• Jul 1 – 23: Tour de France
• Jul 7: US monthly employment report
• Jul 7 – 8: 2017 G20 Summit (Hamburg)
• Jul 13: BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting
• Jul 14: US Retail Sales (Jun)
• Jul 14: US CPI data for June
• Jul 17: Eurozone June inflation
• Jul 19 – 20: BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting
• Jul 20: ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting
• Jul 21: Deadline for US banks to divest PE / hedge fund holdings
• Jul 25 – 26: FOMC meeting
• Jul 28: US 2Q Advance GDP
• Jul 29: Eurozone inflation flash estimate (for Jul)
~ July 2017 ~
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30 31
Milestones:
• 150 th Anniversary: The British North America Act
• 200 th Anniversary: Jane Austen’s death
Deutsche Bank
97

August
Key Events
• Aug 3: BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting
• Aug 4: US monthly employment report
• Aug 8: Kenya General Election
• Aug 11: US CPI data for July
• Aug 13 – 26: Women’s Rugby World Cup 2017
• Aug 15: US Retail Sales (Jul)
• Aug 16: Eurozone 2Q Preliminary GDP
• Aug 17: Eurozone July inflation
• Aug 28 – Sept 10: US Open
• Aug 30: US 2Q Preliminary GDP
• Aug 31: Eurozone inflation flash estimate (for Aug)
• Aug: Annual Fed Jackson Hole Symposium
• Aug: Rwanda General Election
August 2017
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30 31
Milestones:
• 20 th Anniversary: Diana, Princess of Wales’ death
Deutsche Bank
98

September
Key Events
• Sept 1: US monthly employment report
• Sept 5: Eurozone 2Q GDP
• Sept 11: Norway Parliamentary election
• Sept 14: BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting
• Sept 14: US CPI data for August
• Sept 15: US Retail Sales (Aug)
• Sept 18: Eurozone October inflation
• Sept 19 – 20: FOMC meeting with economic projections
• Sept 20: ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting
• Sept 20 - 21: BoJ Monetary Policy meeting
• Sept 28: US 2Q GDP
• Sept 29: Eurozone inflation flash estimate (for Sept)
• Sept: Catalonia, Spain Independence Referendum
• Sept: Germany federal election
~ September 2017 ~
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Deutsche Bank
99

October
Key Events
• Oct 1: US 2018 fiscal year begins
• Oct 6: US monthly employment report
• Oct 7: Nobel Peace Prize is announced
• Oct 12: BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting
• Oct 13 – 15: 2017 Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group
• Oct 13: US Retail Sales (Sep)
• Oct 13: US CPI data for September
• Oct 17: Eurozone September inflation
• Oct 22: Germany Presidential Election
• Oct 26: ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting
• Oct 27: US 3Q Advance GDP
• Oct 31: Eurozone inflation flash estimate (for Oct)
• Oct 30 – 31: BoJ Monetary Policy meeting
• Oct 31 – Nov 1: FOMC meeting
• Oct: China’s Politburo
October 2017
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31
Milestones:
• 50 th Anniversary: Che Guevara’s death
• 500 th Anniversary: Martin Luther’s 95 “Theses”
Deutsche Bank
100

November
Key Events
• Nov 2: BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting
• Nov 3: US monthly employment report
• Nov 14: Eurozone 3Q Advance GDP
• Nov 15: US Retail Sales (Oct)
• Nov 15: US CPI data for October
• Nov 16: Eurozone October inflation
• Nov 18: New Zealand general election
• Nov 29: US 3Q Preliminary GDP
• Nov 30: Eurozone inflation flash estimate (for Nov)
• Nov: APEC Summit in Da Nang, Vietnam
November 2017
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30
Milestones:
• 100 th Anniversary: The National Hockey League
Deutsche Bank
101

December
Key Events
• Dec 5: Eurozone 3Q GDP
• Dec 8: US monthly employment report
• Dec 10: Nobel Prize Annual Award Ceremony
• Dec 12 – 13: FOMC meeting with economic projections
• Dec 13: US CPI data for November
• Dec 14: US Retail Sales (Nov)
• Dec 14: ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting
• Dec 15: BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting
• Dec 18: Eurozone November inflation
• Dec 20 – 21: BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting
• Dec 20: South Korea Presidential Election
• Dec 21: US 3Q GDP
• Late 2017: Thailand General Election
December 2017
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31
Milestones:
• 100 th Anniversary: Finland’s Independence
• 50 th Anniversary: First heart transplant surgery
• 25 th Anniversary: First text message
Deutsche Bank
102

Deutsche Bank
Appendix C: President Obama’s
Executive Orders

President Obama’s Executive Orders: 2009
Comprehensive List of President Obama’s Executive Orders
1. Ethics Commitments By Executive Branch Personnel 19. Establishing The White House Office Of Health Reform
2. Presidential Records 20. Chesapeake Bay Protection and Restoration
3. Review of Detention Policy Options 21. Establishing a White House Council on automotive communities
and workers
4. Ensuring Lawful Interrogations 22. Federal Advisory Committees
5. Closure of Guantanamo Detention Facilities 23. Federal Leadership on Reducing Text Messaging while Driving
6. Revocations Of Certain Executive Orders Concerning Regulatory
Planning And Review
24. Focused on Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and
Economic Performance
7. Notification of Employee Rights Under Federal Labor Laws 25. Asian American and Pacific Islander Community
8. Economy in Government Contracting 26. Amend Executive Order 13462
9. Non-displacement of Qualified Workers Under Service Contracts 27. Amending Executive Orders 13183 and 13494
10. Further Amendments To Executive Order 12859, Establishment Of 28. Veterans Employment Initiative
The Domestic Policy Council
11. Amendments to Executive Order 12835, Establishment of the 29. Establishments of the Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force
National Economic Council
12. Amendments to Executive Order 13199 and Establishment of the 30. Reducing Improper Payments and Eliminating Waste in Federal
President’s Advisory Council for Faith-Based and Neighborhood
Programs
Partnerships
13. Establishing the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board 31. Creating Labor Management Forums To Improve Delivery of
Government Ser ices
14. Use of Project Labor Agreements for Federal Construction Projects 32. Half-Day Closing of Executive Departments and Agencies on
Thursday, December 24, 2009
15. Establishment of the White House Office of Urban Affairs 33. Amending Executive Order 12425
16. Amending Executive Order 13390 34. Adjustments of Certain Rates of Pay
17. Removing Barriers to Responsible Scientific Research Involving 35. Original Classification Authority
Human Stem Cells
18. Creating the White House Council on Women and Girls 36. Medical Countermeasures Following a Biological Attack
Deutsche Bank
Source: The White House. Peck, Madigan, Jones.
104

President Obama’s Executive Orders: 2010
Comprehensive List of President Obama’s Executive Orders
1. Establishing Council of Governors 20. President’s council on Fitness, Sports, and Nutrition
2. Regarding Haiti 21. Optimizing the Security of Biological Select Agents and Toxins in
the United States
3. President’s Advisory Council on Financial Capability 22. Stewardship of the Ocean, Our Coasts, and the Great Lakes
4. National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform 23. Increasing Federal Employment of Individuals with Disabilities
5. Promoting Excellence, Innovation, and Sustainability at Historically 24. Establishment of Pakistan and Afghanistan Support Office
Black Colleges and Universities
6. Historically Black Colleges and Universities 25. Classified National Security Information Programs for State,
Local, Tribal, and Private Sector Entities
7. Providing an Order of Succession within the Department of Defense 26. Blocking Property of Certain Persons with Respect to North
Korea
8. National Export Initiative 27. 2010 Amendments to the Manual for Courts-Martial
9. Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act’s Consistency with
Longstanding Restrictions on the Use of Federal Funds for Abortion
28. Designating Iranian Officials Responsible for or Complicit in
Serious Human Rights Abuses
10. Dia Del Censo, 2010 29. Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Task Force
11. Concerning Somalia 30. White House Initiative On Educational Excellence For Hispanics
12. Interagency Group on Insular Areas 31. Controlled Unclassified Information
13. Establishing the President’s Management Advisory Board 32. Order of Succession Within the Department of Justice
14. President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology 33. Export Coordination Enforcement Center
15. On the Interagency Task Force on Veterans Small Business
Development
16. Temporary Organization to Facilitate a Strategic Partnership with
the Republic of Iraq
17. Providing an Order of Succession Within the Department of
Agriculture
18. National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and
Offshore Drilling
19. Establishing the National Prevention, Health Promotion, and Public
Health Council
34. Fundamental Principles and Policymaking Criteria for
Partnerships with Faith-Based and Other Neighborhood
Organizations
35. White House Council for Community Solutions
36. Adjustments of Certain Rates of Pay
37. Recruiting and Hiring Students and Recent Graduates
Deutsche Bank
Source: The White House. Peck, Madigan, Jones.
105

President Obama’s Executive Orders: 2011
Comprehensive List of President Obama’s Executive Orders
1. Improving Regulation and Regulatory Review 19. Blocking Property of Transnational Criminal Organizations
2. The President’s Council on Jobs and Competitiveness 20. Establishing a Coordinated Government-wide Initiative to
Promote Diversity and Inclusion in the Federal Workforce
3. Establishment of the Intellectual Property Enforcement Advisory 21. Blocking Property of the Government of Syria and Prohibiting
Committees
Certain Transactions with Respect to Syria
4. Libya 22. Developing an Integrated Strategic Counterterrorism
Communications Initiative
5. Periodic Review of Individuals Detained at Guantanamo Bay Naval 23. Continuance of Certain Federal Advisory Committees
Station Pursuant to the Authorization for Use of Military Force
6. Extending Provisions of the International Organization Immunities 24. Message from the President to Congress Regarding the District
Act
of Columbia’s 2012 Budget Request Act
7. Amendments to Executive Orders 12824, 12835, 12859, 13532,
Reestablishment Pursuant to Executive Order 13498, and
Revocation of Executive Order 13507
25. Emergency Board to Investigate Disputes Between Certain
Railroads
8. Prohibiting Certain Transactions with Respect to North Korea 26. Structural Reforms to Improve the Security of Classified
Networks and the Responsible Sharing and Safeguarding of
Classified Information
9. Streamlining Service Delivery and Improving Customer Service 27. Reducing Prescription Drug Shortages
10. Blocking Property of Certain Persons with Respect to Human Rights 28. Promoting Efficient Spending
Abuses in Syria
11. Blocking Property of Senior Officials of the Government of Syria 29. Iran Sanctions
12. Concerning Further Sanctions on Iran 30. Continuance of Certain Federal Advisory Committees
13. Establishment of the White House Rural Council 31. Improving American Indian and Alaska Native Educational
Opportunities and Strengthening Tribal Colleges and Universities
14. Delivering an Efficient, Effective, and Accountable Government 32. 2011 Amendments to the Manual for Courts-Martial, United
States
15. Select USA Initiative 33. Amendments to Executive Orders 12131 and 13539
16. Coordinating Policies on Automotive Communities and Workers 34. Adjustments for Certain Rates of Pay
17. Regulation and Independent Regulatory Agencies 35. Instituting a National Action Plan on Women, Peace, and Security
18. Interagency Working Group on Coordination of Domestic Energy
Development and Permitting in Alaska
Deutsche Bank
Source: The White House. Peck, Madigan, Jones.
106

President Obama’s Executive Orders: 2012
Comprehensive List of President Obama’s Executive Orders
1. Establishing Visa and Foreign Visitor Processing Goals and the Task Force on 21. Russian Highly Enriched Uranium
Travel and Competitiveness
2. Assignment of Functions Relating to Certain Promotion and Appointment
22. Assignment of National Security and Emergency Preparedness
Actions in the Armed Forces
Communications Functions
3. Blocking Property of the Government of Iran and Iranian Financial Institutions 23. Blocking Property of Persons Threatening the Peace, Security, or Stability
of Burma
4. Establishing the President’s Global Development Council 24. Taking Additional Steps to Address the National Emergency with Respect to
Somalia
5. Establishment of the Interagency Trade Enforcement Center 25. White House Initiative on Educational Excellence for African Americans
6. Establishing a White House Council on Strong Cities, Strong Communities 26. Preventing and Responding to Violence Against Women and Girls Globally
7. National Defense Resources Preparedness 27. Accelerating Investment in Industrial Energy Efficiency
8. Improving Performance of Federal Permitting and Review of Infrastructure 28. Improving Access to Mental Health Services for Veterans, Service
Projects
Members, and Military Families
9. Supporting Safe and Responsible Development of Unconventional Domestic 29. Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration
Natural Gas Resources
10. Blocking the Property and Suspending Entry into the United States of Certain 30. Strengthening Protections Against Trafficking In Persons In Federal
Persons with Respect to Grave Human Rights Abuses by Governments of Iran Contracts
and Syria via Information Technology
11. Establishing Principles of Excellence for Educational Institutions Serving
31. Order Signed by the President regarding the Acquisition of Four U.S. Wind
Service Members, Veterans, Spouses, and Other Family Members
Farm Project Companies by Ralls Corporation
12. Prohibiting Certain Transactions and Suspending Entry into the United States
of Foreign Sanctions Evaders with Respect to Iran and Syria
32. Authorizing the Implementation of Certain Sanctions Set Forth in the Iran
Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012 and Additional
Sanctions with respect to Iran
13. Promoting International Regulatory Cooperation 33. Establishing the White House Homeland Security Partnership Council
14. Identifying and Reducing Regulatory Burdens 34. Establishment of the Interagency Task Force on Commercial Advocacy
15. Blocking Property of Persons Threatening the Peace, Security, or Stability of 35. Establishing the Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force
Yemen
16. Providing an Order of Succession within the Department of Agriculture 36. Reestablishment of Advisory Group
17. Providing an Order of Succession within the Office of Management and Budget 37. Reestablishment of Advisory Commission
18. Providing an Order of Succession within the Department of Commerce 38. Closing of Executive Departments and Agencies of the Federal Government
on Monday, December 24, 2012
19. Providing an Order of Succession within the Environmental Protection Agency 39. Adjustments of Certain Rates of Pay
20. Accelerating Broadband Infrastructure Deployment
Deutsche Bank
Source: The White House. Peck, Madigan, Jones.
107

President Obama’s Executive Orders: 2013
Comprehensive List of President Obama’s Executive Orders
1. Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity 11. Establishing the White House Council on Native American
Affairs
2. Amendments to Executive Order 12777 12. Combating Wildlife Trafficking
3. Establishment of the Presidential Commission of Election
Administration
13. HIV Care Continuum Initiative
4. Continuance of Advisory Council 14. Improving Chemical Facility Safety and Security
5. Adjustments of Certain Rates of Pay 15. Prohibiting Certain Imports of Burmese Jadeite and Rubies
6. Making Open and Machine Readable the New Default for
Government Information
7. 2013 Amendments to the Manual for Courts-Martial, United
States
16. Continuance of Certain Federal Advisory Committees
17. Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate
Change
8. Amendment to Executive Order 13639 18. Presidential Emergency Board
9. Authorizing the Implementation of Certain Sanctions Set
Forth in the Iran Freedom and Counter-Proliferation Act of
2012 and Additional Sanctions with Respect To Iran
19. Adjustments of Certain Rates of Pay
10. Establishing the President’s Advisory Council on Financial
Capability for Young Americans
Deutsche Bank
Source: The White House. Peck, Madigan, Jones.
108

President Obama’s Executive Orders: 2014
Comprehensive List of President Obama’s Executive Orders
1. Establishment of Afghanistan and Pakistan Strategic Partnership
Office and Amendment to Executive Order 12163
16. Further Amendments to Executive Order 11478, Equal
Employment Opportunity in the Federal Government, and
Executive Order 11246, Equal Employment Opportunity
17. Revised List of Quarantinable Communicable Diseases
2. Changing the Name of the National Security Staff to the National
Security Council Staff
3. Minimum Wage for Contractors 18. Fair Pay and Safe Workplaces
4. Streamlining the Export / Import Process for America’s Businesses 19. Establishing the President’s Advisory Council on Doing Business
in Africa
5. Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in 20. Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria
Ukraine
6. Blocking Property of Additional Persons Contributing to the Situation 21. Climate-Resilient International Development
in Ukraine
7. Establishing an Emergency Board To Investigate Disputes Between 22. Conversion Authority for Criminal Investigators (Special Agents)
the Long Island Rail Road Company And Certain Of Its Employees of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives
Represented By Certain Labor Organizations
8. Blocking Property of Additional Persons Contributing to the Situation 23. Ordering the Selected Reserve and Certain Individual Ready
in Ukraine
Reserve Members of the Armed Forces to Active Duty
9. Blocking Property of Certain Persons With Respect to South Sudan 24. Improving the Security of Consumer Financial Transactions
10. Non-Retaliation for Disclosure of Compensation Information 25. Closing of Executive Departments and Agencies of the Federal
Government on Friday, December 26, 2014
11. Expanding Eligibility for the Defense Meritorious Service Medal 26. Further Amendments to Executive Order 11030, Executive Order
13653, and Executive Order 13673
12. Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Conflict in 27. Establishment of the President’s Task Force on 21 st Century
the Central African Republic
Policing
13. 2014 Amendments to the Manual for Courts-Martial, United States 28. Adjustments of Certain Rates of Pay
14. Establishing an Emergency Board to Investigate Disputes Between
the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority and Certain
of Its Employees Represented by Certain Labor Organizations
15. Regarding the Democratic Republic of the Congo
29. Blocking Property Of Certain Persons and Prohibiting Certain
Transactions With Respect To The Crimea Region Of Ukraine
Deutsche Bank
Source: The White House. Peck, Madigan, Jones.
109

President Obama’s Executive Orders: 2015
Comprehensive List of President Obama’s Executive Orders
1. Imposing Additional Sanctions with Respect to North Korea 13. Delegation of Certain Authorities and Assignment of Certain
Function Under the Bipartisan Congressional Trade
Priorities and Accountability Act of 2015
2. Federal Support for Local Law Enforcement Equipment
Acquisition
14. Creating a National Strategic Computing Initiative
3. Enhancing Coordination of National Efforts in the Arctic 15. Implementing the National HIV / AIDS Strategy for the
Unites States for 2015 – 2020
4. Establishing a Federal Flood Risk Management Standard and
a Process for Further Soliciting and Considering Stakeholder
Input
16. Designating the International Renewable Energy Agency as
a Public International Organization entitled to enjoy certain
Privileges, Exemptions, and Immunities
5. Promoting Private Sector Cybersecurity Information Sharing 17. Presidential Innovation Fellows Program
6. Planning for Federal Sustainability in the Next Decade 18. Establishing Paid Sick Leave for Federal Contractors
7. “Blocking the Property of Certain Persons Engaging in
Significant Malicious Cyber-Enabled Activities”
19. Using Behavioral Science Insights to Better Serve the
American People
8. HEU Executive Order and IDLs 20. National Security Medal
9. 2015 Amendments to the Manual for Courts-Martial, United
States
21. Termination of Emergency with Respect to the Actions and
Policies of Former Liberian President Charles Taylor
10. Hostage Recovery Activities 22. Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the
Situation in Burundi
11. Establishing the Advisory Board on Toxic Substances and
Worker Health
23. Half-Day Closing of Executive Departments and Agencies of
the Federal Government on Thursday, December 24, 2015
12. Establishing an Emergency Board to Investigate Disputes
Between New Jersey Transit Rail and Certain of its
Employees Represented by Certain Labor Organizations
Deutsche Bank
Source: The White House. Peck, Madigan, Jones.
24. Strengthening the Senior Executive Service
110

President Obama’s Executive Orders: 2016
1. Text of a Letter from the President to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and 22. Providing an Order of Succession within the Environmental Protection Agency
the President of the Senate
2. Revocation of Executive Orders 13574, 13590, 13622, and 13645 with Respect to Iran, 23. Amendment to Executive Order 13673
Amendment of Executive Order 13628 with Respect to Iran
3. Establishing a Federal Earthquake Risk Management Standard 24. Termination of the National Emergency with the Situation in or in Relation to Côte
d’Ivoire
4. Establishment of the Federal Privacy Council 25. 2016 Amendments to the Manual for Courts-Martial, United States
5. Commission on Enhancing National Cyber Security 26. Amending Executive Order 13467 to Establish the Roles and Responsibilities of the
National Background Investigations Bureau and Related Matters
6. Delegation of Certain Authorities and Assignment of Certain Functions Under the Trade 27. Termination of Emergency with Respect to the Actions and Policies of the Government
Preferences Extension Act of 2015
of Burma
7. Blocking Property of the Government of North Korea and the Workers’ Party of Korea, 28. Charitable Fundraising
and Prohibiting Certain Transactions with Respect to North Korea
8. Establishing the Inherent Resolve Campaign Medal 29. Coordinating Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events
9. Amending Executive Order 12137 30. Delegation of Function to the Director of the Office of Personnel Management
10. Steps to Increase Competition and Better Inform Consumers and Workers to Support 31. Advancing the Goals of the Power Africa Initiative to Expand Access to Electricity in
Continued Growth of the American Economy
Sub-Saharan Africa Through the Establishment of the President’s Power Africa
Deutsche Bank
Comprehensive List of President Obama’s Executive Orders
Working Group
32. Advancing the Global Health Security Agenda to Achieve a World Safe and Secure from
Infectious Disease Threats
11. Blocking Property and Suspending Entry Into The Unites States of Persons Contributing
To the Situation In Libya
12. Facilitation of a Presidential Transition 33. Establishing a Community Solutions Council
13. Comprehensive Approach to Atrocity Prevention and Response 34. Providing for the Appointment in the Competitive Service of Certain Employees of the
Foreign Service
14. Wildland-Urban Interface Federal Risk Mitigation 35. Providing for the Appointment of Alumni of the Fulbright U.S. Student Program, the
Benjamin A. Gilman International Scholarship Program, and the Critical Language
Scholarship Program to the Competitive Service
15. 2016 Amendments to Manual for Courts-Martial, United States 36. Safeguarding the Nation from the Impacts of Invasive Species
16. Global Entrepreneurship 37. Relating to the Implementation of the Convention on the International Recovery of
Child Support and Other Forms of Family Maintenance
17. United States Policy on Pre- and Post- Strike Measures to Address Civilian Casualties in 38. Northern Bering Sea Climate Resilience
US Operations Involving the Use of Force
18. Delegation of Certain Authorities and Assignment of Certain Functions Under the Trade 39. Amending the Order of Succession in the Department of Homeland Security
Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015
19. Amending Executive Order 13675 to Expand Membership on the President’s Advisory 40. Providing an Order of Succession Within the Department of Labor
Council on Doing Business in Africa
20. Providing an Order of Succession within the Department of the Treasury 41. Adjustments of Certain Rates of Pay
21. Providing an Order of Succession within the Department of Veterans Affairs 42. Taking Additional Steps to Address the National Emergency with Respect to Significant
Malicious Cyber-Enabled Activities
Source: The White House. Peck, Madigan, Jones.
111

Disclaimer
The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we make no representation or warranty,
express or implied, with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy, reasonableness or completeness of such information. In addition we have no
obligation to update, modify or amend this communication or to otherwise notify a recipient in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion,
projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate.
We are not acting and do not purport to act in any way as an advisor or in a fiduciary capacity. We therefore strongly suggest that recipients seek their
own independent advice in relation to any investment, financial, legal, tax, accounting, or regulatory issues discussed herein. Analyses and opinions
contained herein may be based on assumptions that if altered can change the analyses or opinions expressed. Nothing contained herein shall constitute
any representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency rate or other market or economic measure.
Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. It is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor to enter into any
agreement or contract with Deutsche Bank AG or any affiliates. Any offering or potential transaction that may be related to the subject matter of this
communication will be made pursuant to separate and distinct documentation and in such case the information contained herein will be superseded in its
entirety by such documentation in final form. This presentation has been prepared by members of our investment banking department and does not
necessarily represent the views of our Research department or Deutsche Bank's "house view." This presentation speaks only as of the date it is given,
and the views expressed are subject to change based upon a number of factors, including market conditions.
Because this communication is a summary only it may not contain all material terms, and therefore this communication in and of itself should not form the
basis for any investment decision. Financial instruments that may be discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors, and potential investors must
make an independent assessment of the appropriateness of any transaction in light of their own objectives and circumstances, including the possible
risks and benefits of entering into such a transaction. By accepting receipt of this communication the recipient will be deemed to represent that they
possess, either individually or through their advisers, sufficient investment expertise to understand the risks involved in any purchase or sale of any
financial instrument discussed herein. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investor’s currency, a change in exchange
rates may adversely affect the price or value of, or the income derived from, the financial, and any investor in that financial instrument effectively
assumes currency risk. Prices and availability of any financial instruments described in this communication are subject to change without notice.
Securities and investment banking activities in the United States are performed by Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC, and
its broker-dealer affiliates. Lending and other commercial banking activities in the United States are performed by Deutsche Bank AG, and its banking
affiliates. This communication and the information contained herein is confidential and may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part without
our prior written consent.
For more information contact Tom Joyce (212-250-8754)
I-049233-1 (1/17) RETAIL-REP

Reader’s Notes
Deutsche Bank
113

Reader’s Notes
Deutsche Bank
114

Reader’s Notes
Deutsche Bank
115