23 January 2017 World suplement

DT
VOL1, ISSUE 2 | Monday, January 30, 2017
World Tribune
what
happens
when the
music
stops?
3
Trump sees himself as
7
The Bay of Bengal
8
India and China’s tug
leading insurgency
naval arms race
of war over Nepal

2
Monday, January 30, 2017
DT
World
Analysis
US President Trump promises big
change, picks small fights
• Tribune Desk
President Donald Trump won the
White House promising big changes
to the nation’s economy, health
care system and foreign policy.
He spent his first full day in office
picking small fights.
Trump turned what was intended
to be a bridge-building visit to the
CIA on Saturday into a media-bashing
session centered on what he saw
as low-ball reports about the crowd
size on Inauguration Day. He berated
a magazine journalist by name
for an inaccurate report about Oval
Office decor that had been quickly
corrected. Then, he dispatched his
press secretary, Sean Spicer, to the
White House briefing room to reinforce
the message in an angry tirade
that included false — and easy to
fact-check — statements.
The day left no doubt that Trump
will govern, at least for now, as he
campaigned: fixating on seemingly
minor issues, letting no perceived
slight slip by unchallenged, and,
sometimes, creating his own set of
facts.
Indeed, some of Trump’s remarks
at CIA headquarters, with
agency brass looking on, might well
have come at one of his raucous
campaign rallies. But this time, it
was a memorial to fallen CIA agents
that served as the backdrop for
Trump’s declaration that journalists
are “the most dishonest human
beings on Earth.”
“I have a running war with the
media,” Trump said, looking out
at an audience of men and women
who have played a direct role in the
nation’s wars against terrorism.
Even with Trump’s track record,
it was a remarkable scene. High-level
CIA leaders stood silently as the
commander in chief unleashed
his off-topic attacks, though other
agency employees who had volunteered
to attend the event cheered
the president on.
Trump has long been easily
sidetracked by relatively insignificant
issues, particularly those that
threaten to chip away at his carefully
cultivated image as the ultimate
winner. He repeatedly inflated
his crowd counts during the campaign,
even though he was easily
drawing bigger audiences than his
rivals. When during a general election
debate Democrat Hillary Clinton
raised old comments Trump
had made about a beauty queen’s
weight, he took the bait and spent
several days defending what he had
said two decades earlier.
It seemed to be no coincidence
US President Donald Trump points to a member of the audience after speaking at the Central Intelligence Agency in Langley, Virginia on Saturday, January 21
that Trump’s fixation on the inaugural
crowd came on a day when
throngs of women flocked to Washington
for a protest against his
presidency. The march appeared
to draw larger crowds than the one
that gathered on the National Mall
to watch Trump be sworn in as the
45th president of the United States.
The women’s march was widely
covered on cable news, which
Trump watches regularly. His motorcade
routes Saturday also gave
him an up-close look at the protesters,
including some who lined the
street and shouted at the president
as he pulled back into the White
House.
In theory, the pace and pressures
of the presidency should
leave Trump with less capacity to
respond to every irritation. He now
leads the world’s largest economy
and most powerful military. His
loyal supporters have pinned their
hopes for change in Washington
squarely on him, believing that his
Trump has long
been easily
sidetracked
by relatively
insignificant
issues, particularly
those that threaten
to chip away at his
carefully cultivated
image as the
ultimate winner
unconventional background and
style will allow him to succeed
where other politicians have failed.
But Trump appears to have
concluded that his ability to do
so hinges in part on tearing down
the national media, an institution
whose attention he simultaneously
craves. While most presidents view
the day’s headlines as a sideshow,
Trump sees them as a daily barometer
of his standing.
He’s benefited from his supporters’
deep distrust of journalists
and the reality that most media
pundits predicted his defeat
in the campaign — never mind the
fact that many Republicans, including
some now serving in senior
White House roles, did as well.
His active presence on Twitter and
other social media sites has given
him the ability to command attention
for his own version of events,
which is often replicated by pro-
Trump outlets.
Now Trump has all the trappings
AP
of the presidency to promote his
version of events as well. When
Spicer stepped into the White House
briefing room Saturday evening, the
pack of ever-ready journalists that
work out of the West Wing was at
the ready to chronicle his remarks.
Spicer, a Washington veteran
who served in former President
George W Bush’s administration,
was nearly shouting as he read off
a script. Like his boss, he played
loose with the facts, including his
claim that white “floor coverings”
to protect the grass on the National
Mall were used for the first time and
drew attention to any empty space.
The same coverings were used four
years ago.
Ari Fleischer, who stood at the
same podium as Bush’s first press
secretary, wrote on Twitter: “This
is called a statement you are told
to make by the President. And you
know the President is watching.” •
Source: AP

World
3
Monday, January 30, 2017
DT
Analysis
Trump still sees himself as leading
an insurgency
• Reuters, Washington, DC
Donald Trump took over as US president
on Friday in the same way he
conducted his upstart campaign,
with a mixture of blustery salesmanship
and naked contempt for
the established political order.
In doing so, he sent a clear signal
to the country and the world: He
plans to govern as he campaigned,
refusing to align himself even with
his own Republican Party and taking
his message directly to the
American people.
He did nothing to dispel concerns
that he would bring the
cult of personality he built over
the election campaign into the
White House, and he offered little
in the way of olive branches to
the tens of millions of Americans
who did not vote for him in the
most divisive election in modern
US history.
A former reality TV star, Trump
offered an apocalyptic vision of
reality: an America besieged by
crime, immigration, terrorism and
unfair trade deals.
“The American carnage stops
right here and stops right now,” he
pledged, as he presented himself as
a champion of the ordinary American.
The gloomy picture Trump
sketched of the nation flies in the
face of evidence that the economy
is in healthy shape, crime is down
and the nation is relatively safe and
secure.
After warning the public on the
extent of the problems, Trump
suggested, as he did during his
campaign, that he and his “movement”
are the only solution. He did
not mention the Republicans in
Congress with whom he will partner
to govern and certainly not the
Democrats who have fiercely opposed
him.
Trump campaigned as an outsider,
railing against the sins of both
his Republican Party and the Democratic
Party. And, it became clear as
he delivered his speech on the steps
of the Capitol, that he intends to remain
that outsider, the rebel leader
who takes power with one foot still
on the battlefield.
Continuing the populist themes
from his campaign, he condemned
the politicians who he said have for
years prospered at the expense of
the public.
He eschewed the high-flying
rhetoric typical of such occasions in
favor of more blunt, populist declarations.
“Politicians prospered - but the
jobs left, and the factories closed,”
he said. “The establishment protected
itself, but not the citizens of
our country.”
“We are transferring power from
Washington DC and giving it back to
you, the American people.”
Aundrea Friedley, 52, of Nampa,
Idaho, who was in the crowd watching
his speech, likened it to a “powerful
punch” and praised Trump for
returning power to the people.
Trump won the majority of the
US Electoral College vote, but lost
the popular vote to his opponent,
Hillary Clinton, by nearly 3 million
votes, making any attempt to
unify the country that much more
difficult.
‘America first’
“We assembled here today are issuing
a new decree to be heard in
every city, in every foreign capital
and in every hall of power,” Trump
said. “From this day forward a new
vision will govern our land. From
this moment on, it’s going to be
America First.”
His proposals though for
ramped-up infrastructure spending,
strong border controls and
the strong isolationist tone of his
speech may not jibe with traditional
Republican priorities.
At the same time, however,
Trump has assuaged nervous Republicans
by selecting a Cabinet
that has largely affirmed bedrock
conservative principals, and he
plans to quickly begin signing
executive orders designed to roll
back some of former President
Barack Obama’s progressive policies.
In Trump’s speech, historians
said, there were echoes of Franklin
D. Roosevelt with Trump mentioning
“the forgotten” Americans left
behind by the forces of trade and
globalization, of Richard Nixon’s
“silent majority”, and of Ronald
Reagan’s pledge to restore the nation’s
greatness.
But, said Julian Zelizer, a historian
at Princeton University, there
was also “more anger physically
and verbally than in the past” with
Trump punctuating his speech with
pointed hand gestures.
Trump spent little time trying to
expand his appeal to the majority of
Americans who view him unfavorably,
according to opinion polls. Instead,
he appeared to speak directly
to his most fervent supporters.
His speech perhaps was most
reflective of Reagan’s 1981 address,
in which the then-president spoke
of “economic affliction” and “idle
industries.”
But Reagan inherited an economy
struggling with stagflation and
an unemployment rate of 7.5%. By
contrast, under the departing Obama,
the economy has added private
sector jobs in 80 consecutive
months and the unemployment
rate stands at 4.7%.
The picture painted by Trump “is
probably not one that every American
shares,” said Thomas Alan
Schwartz, a presidential historian at
Vanderbilt University. Still, he said,
Trump has tapped into a “sense of
national crisis and decline.”
Belinda Bee, 56, came to see
Trump from Mooresville, North
Carolina, saying she believed he
would successfully combat Islamic
terrorism and that he would remain
a political outsider.
“The country now belongs to the
people and not the politicians,” she
said. •

Trump’s turbulent be
4
Monday, January 30, 2017
DT
Week in review
The white House during sunset hour. The picture was captured during a demonstration called the Women’s
on Washington January 21, 2017 in Washington, DC. Hundreds of thousands of protesters spearheaded by w
rights groups demonstrated across the US to send a defiant message to US President Donald Trump.
January 21
Car bomb explodes
in Tripoli, near Italy
embassy
A car bomb exploded late on Saturday
close to the recently re-opened Italian embassy
in the Libyan capital, a security official
said. It was not clear who was responsible
for the blast. Two charred bodies
were recovered from the car, according to
a statement on a social media page run by
a local branch of the Red Crescent, but the
identity of the occupants was unknown.
Some vehicles parked nearby were also
hit, but damage from the blast, which could
be heard at least a kilometre away, was limited.
The security official, who did not want
to be named, said it appeared that explosives
had been planted in the car.
January 20
Trump sworn-in as
US president
President Trump, revered
and reviled on his Inauguration
Day, assured a deeply
divided nation that his promised
draining of the Washington
swamp began Friday.
And he did it in typical fiery
Trump style, ignoring those
who ranted against him nearby
to directly address those
who voted him into office
against overwhelming odds.
“America will start winning
again, winning like never
before,” Trump announced
to the 250,000 people gathered
on the National Mall as
brick-throwing protesters
marched in the streets just
blocks away. The crowd,
smaller than those for past
inaugurals on a damp January
day, cheered for the businessman
who completed an
unlikely odyssey from Trump
Tower to the White House.
reuters
reuters
January 22
Syrian army, allies take
village from Islamic State
The Syrian army and its allies
on Sunday drove IS from the
village of Soran, east of Aleppo,
state media and a military
media unit run by Hezbollah reported,
bringing them closer to
territory held by Turkey-backed
rebels. Several overlapping
conflicts are being fought in
Syria, dragging in regional and
global powers as well as the
government and local groups,
complicating the battlefield in
the north of the country and
raising the risk of an escalation
in the war.
The main struggle in Syria’s
civil war is between President
Bashar al-Assad, backed by Iran,
Russia and Shia militias including
the Lebanese Hezbollah, against
rebels that include groups backed
by Turkey, Gulf monarchies and
the United States.

Week in review 5
DT
Monday, January 30, 2017
ginning
March
omen’s
AFP
reuters
January 17
Top German court
rejects bid to outlaw
far-right party
Germany’s Constitutional
Court on Tuesday said the
far-right National Democratic
Party (NPD) resembled
Adolf Hitler’s Nazi party,
but ruled against banning
it because it was too weak to
endanger democracy.
Germany’s 16 federal
states had pressed for the
ban amid rising support
for right-wing groups that
has been stoked by popular
resentment over the
influx of large numbers of
migrants.
Critics, including Jewish
groups, condemned
the court ruling, saying
it sent a signal that legitimised
the spread of hatred.
While the court said
the NPD’s aims, viewed
by Germany’s intelligence
agency as racist, anti-Semitic
and revisionist, violated
the constitution, it
said there was insufficient
evidence that it could succeed
and this made a ban
impossible.
January 16
Canada’s Trudeau
faces ethics probe
over The Bahamas trip
Canada’s ethics watchdog is
investigating whether Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau violated
conflict of interest laws
by taking a New Year’s vacation
on an island in the Bahamas
owned by the Aga Khan,
the first such probe of a sitting
prime minister.
Trudeau has faced repeated
questions from the opposition
about his trip to Bell Island,
the Aga Khan’s private island,
January 19
African nations halt The
Gambia operation to allow
mediation
West African nations halted a
military operation in Gambia on
Thursday to give a final chance to
mediation efforts, but will resume
at noon on Friday if Yahya Jammeh
still refuses to hand over power to
the new president, a regional official
said.
Speaking to reporters, Marcel
which sits in a national park in
the Bahamas. He said last week
that he had flown there by private
helicopter.
In a letter to a Conservative
lawmaker dated January 13,
Mary Dawson, the federal conflict
of interest and ethics commissioner,
said she has “commenced
an examination” to
determine whether Trudeau’s
trip contravened the Conflict of
Interest Act.
de Souza, head of the ECOWAS
commission, said it was out of the
question that Jammeh be allowed
to remain in Gambia. But if mediation
succeeds he can choose his
country of exile, de Souza said,
adding that regional countries
were open to possible amnesty as
part of a deal.
January 18
Xi portrays China as
global leader
China will build a “new model” of relations
with the United States, President Xi Jinping
said on Wednesday in a speech that portrayed
China as the leader of a globalised
world where only international cooperation
could solve the big problems.
Two days before the inauguration of Donald
Trump who has promised to be a US president
putting “America first”, Xi urged countries
to resist isolationism.
“Trade protectionism and self-isolation
will benefit no one,” Xi told an invited audience
at the United Nations in Geneva. “Big
countries should treat smaller countries as
equals instead of acting as a hegemon imposing
their will on others.”
reuters

6
Monday, January 30, 2017
DT
World
Arc of
potential
conflict
ALGERIA
NIGERIA
POLAND
LIBYA
Countries with
threat of terrorism
Countries with
AFRICOM bases
AFRICA: Central piece of
American policy in Africa
is very likely to become
AFRICOM. Africa
Command has at least
55 bases in 27 African
countries, plus Spain and
Italy, involved in fight
against terrorist groups.
U.S. gives $9.3bn in
aid to African nations per
year, and under African
Growth and Opportunity
Act (AGOA) also provides
tariff-free access to U.S.
markets worth some
$50bn.
Trump’s opposition to
free trade deals could
end AGOA
WHAT ‘AMERICA FIRST’ COULD MEAN...
Donald Trump’s “America First” could end a century of the
“American Age” – America’s role to “guarantee peace and justice throughout
the world,” launched by President Woodrow Wilson in January 1917
EUROPE: France, Germany,
Netherlands and probably
Italy are facing elections
in 2017. Emergence of
anti-establishment and
far-right parties is likely to
play to Russia’s advantage
UKRAINE
EGYPT
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
SYRIA
RUSSIA
IRAN
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, Mother Jones, OECD, Spiegel, Stratfor, The Atlantic
IRAQ
SAUDI
ARABIA
PAKISTAN
YEMEN
Camp
Lemonnier
DJIBOUTI
SYRIA: Trump has
indicated he will
abandon CIA aid for Syrian
rebels to focus on defeating
so-called Islamic State –
seen as America’s greatest
foreign threat.
Rebels will turn to
Saudi Arabia for aid and
weapons to continue fight
against Russian- and
Iranian-backed President
Bashar al Assad (above)
IRAN: Unilaterally scrapping
Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action – pact to
curb Iran’s nuclear activities
in exchange for ending
sanctions – would give
green light to Iran to develop
nuclear weapons.
Israel would be under
pressure to act alone to
deal with future Iranian
nuclear bomb
NATO: Trump’s comments
that NATO’s collective
defence is “obsolete” could
embolden President
Vladimir Putin.
Following annexation
of Crimea and
CHINA
AUSTRALIA NEW
ZEALAND
China-led trade bloc
will control 40% of
world trade
CLIMATE CHANGE:
Trump has called global
warming a Chinese hoax.
He has appointed Scott
Pruitt (above) to head
Environmental Protection
Agency and reverse EPA’s
“out-of-control anti-energy
agenda that has destroyed
millions of jobs”
Pictures: Associated Press
backing of armed separatists
in eastern Ukraine, the
countries of Estonia, Latvia
and Lithuania are bracing
for Russian intervention.
There is now an arc
spreading through Baltic
states to Ukraine that
constitutes a zone of
potential conflict
NORTH KOREA
JAPAN
ASIA-PACIFIC: Trump’s
pledge to bring jobs back
to America spells bad news
for Asia. Imposition of
punitive trade tariffs will
hurt Chinese exporters
and likely result in tit-for-tat
trade barriers imposed
by Beijing.
ScrappingTrans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP) –
12-nation trade pact
covering annual trade of
$27 trillion – will hand
opportunities to China.
With TPP gone,
China’s President
Xi Jinping (above)
will promote trading
bloc, which includes
Japan, Australia,
New Zealand,
China and 12 other
Asian countries,
but not U.S.
NORTH KOREA:
By 2020 – within
President Trump’s
four-year term –
many experts
believe that North
Korea, which has
already conducted
five nuclear tests,
may have capability
to build and launch
a nuclear-tipped
intercontinental
ballistic missile
that could reach
the U.S. mainland
© GRAPHIC NEWS
Q&A
Why the US
military stays
out of politics
Very few Americans question the idea
that the military should be subservient
to the nation’s political leaders. But in
many other parts of the world, generals
and armies meddle in politics all the
time.
So how did this come about?
Well, the principle has been there
from the beginning. It’s enshrined in
Article II of the constitution: that the
president is commander in chief, and
thus a civilian is always in charge of the
military.
But why?
They were well aware that the biggest
threat to a republic — and we must remember
how unique the US was in the
18th century in choosing to not have a
king — historically, was a military dictatorship.
The Founding Fathers wrote and
spoke a lot about the city states of
ancient Greece, but more especially
about ancient Rome, which was a republic
long before it became an empire.
And they were well aware that
the Greeks fell prey to their tyrants,
and that the Roman republic was effectually
destroyed by Julius Caesar —
a hugely successful general with huge
ambitions.
Is the US exceptional?
Not in theory. Political and military
thinkers going back to Sun Tzu in ancient
China have advocated military
obedience to civilian leadership. In
theory, most of the world conforms to
this notion.
In other places, the military assumed
disproportionate influence on
government and policy. This was especially
true in 19th century Germany,
where the militarisation of the state
helped lead to World War I.
So has the US ever been close to
having a military coup?
The only time America has stood on the
threshold of a military takeover was at
the end of the Revolutionary War, in
March 1783. There was a very real effort
to get the army to march on Congress,
which was threatening to disband the
long-suffering soldiers without pay or
pensions or the land they’d been promised.
There was talk of seizing power,
getting their dues, and even of proclaiming
Washington king.
To his credit, George Washington
would have none of it. He single-handedly
talked the officers off the ledge at
a dramatic mass-meeting on March 15
— which by coincidence is the Ides of
March, the day that Julius Caesar was
assassinated. In my opinion, this might
well have been Washington’s greatest
act of service to the US. •
Source: The Week

World
7
Monday, January 30, 2017
DT
The Bay of Bengal naval arms race
As Bangladesh and Myanmar build up their navies, India and China compete to supply equipment
• Tribune Desk
Myanmar Warships at Combined Fleet Exercise – Sea Shield 2015 Showing Chinese Weapons Myanmar Navy
In late November 2016, Bangladesh
took delivery of two submarines
from China, making the former the
second Bay of Bengal (BoB) navy
to acquire an undersea capability.
This development takes place even
as Myanmar recapitalises its surface
fleet sporting sonars supplied by India.
Recent maritime boundary settlements,
rather than obviating the
need for naval capability accretion,
seem to have enhanced it in the littorals
of the resource-rich BoB. As
such, the India-China contest for
influence in the BoB has a decidedly
naval edge to it, with both sides
seeking to leverage capacity-building
cooperation with countries in
the region to secure access and a
deep security relationship.
The move to purchase submarines
from abroad was revived in
2009, after naval tensions with
Myanmar the previous year. In
2010, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina
announced her government’s intention
to develop the Bangladesh
Navy (BN) into a three-dimensional
“deterrent” force, with a view to
protecting the nation’s maritime
resources and mostly coastal population.
The two Type-035G boats ordered
in 2013 for a sum of $203m
and now commissioned as BNS
Nabajatra and Joyjatra, respectively,
have Ming class features, with a
submerged displacement of 2,110
tonnes, an overall length of 76 meters,
beam of 7.6 m, hull draught of
5.1 m, and a top speed of 18 knots
when submerged. Each boat has
a complement of 47 sailors and 10
officers and sports eight 533 mm
tubes that can deploy weapons
such as Yu-3 and Yu-4 heavyweight
torpedoes. A total of either 14 torpedoes
or 32 naval mines can be
carried by these boats. The two submarines
have an integrated sonar
and electronic warfare suite with
Chinese derivatives of Western origin
systems.
BNS Nabajatra and Joyjatra,
though obsolete in terms of structural
design, have a decent sensor
fit, and have been deemed adequate
by the BN not only for training
and capacity-building roles but
also for sea-denial potential against
less capable adversaries such as
the Myanmar Navy (MN). These
submarines will be based in the
newly constructed submarine base
at Kutubdia Channel near Cox’s Bazaar.
Bangladesh also has a plan to
build a major naval base in the Rabanabad
Channel in southwestern
Bangladesh, which will have both
submarine berthing as well as aviation
facilities.
Even though Bangladesh settled
its maritime boundaries with
Myanmar in 2012 and India in 2014
via international arbitration, these
awards probably reinforced its desire
to build a deterrent navy, rather
than dampening it. Post-arbitration,
Bangladesh now has sovereign
claim over an exclusive economic
zone (EEZ) spanning 111,631 square
kilometers, an area nearly equal
to its landmass, which it feels the
need to actively defend given that it
isn’t particularly rich in land-based
resources.
Myanmar’s expansionism
China until now has also been the
leading collaborator in the Myanmar
Navy’s bid to recapitalise its
fleet, although this may change in
the future. Though the MN’s new
surface combatants are being built
in the Sinmalaik Shipyard in Yangon,
which was set up with Chinese
assistance, the ships are being
outfitted with weapons and sensors
of diverse origin. Particularly
noteworthy is the fact that MN has
opted for Indian sonars for its principal
surface combatants even as
China is helping Bangladesh set up
a submarine arm. MN’s new 3,000
ton Kyan Sittha-class frigates, of
which two have already been commissioned
and three more are
planned, is equipped with a DRDO-
BEL HMS-X hull-mounted sonar,
which is an export version of the
HUMSA-NG meant for major Indian
Navy(IN) surface combatants. Kyan
Sittha-class ships also use Indian
supplied search radars even though
Two Ming class
submarines, the
first of their kinds
in Bangladesh,
to turn the navy
into a ‘threedimensional’
force
- Sheikh Hasina
they have to use a Chinese missile
targeting radar since their main armament
consists of C-802 AshMs.
Even as Myanmar progressively
turns toward India for naval supplies,
it has in the recent past also
sought to address Indian concerns
about the nature of its military ties
with China. Back in 2013, IN and
MN ships conducted a coordinated
patrol between Myanmar’s Coco
Island and India’s Landfall Island,
perhaps in a bid to put to rest persistent
Indian speculation about
the island being used by the Chinese
as a major signals intelligence
(SIGINT) gathering facility. Myanmar
has also invited India to overfly
this island to examine the nature
of the improvements taking place
on it, such as an extended runway.
With the inking of a pact for coordinated
patrols earlier this year, it
could be said that the Indian establishment
is now sanguine that Myanmar
is not likely to turn itself into
a “second coast” for the People’s
Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). India
is now looking for work-arounds
for sanctions to step up military
supplies to Myanmar.
China Card
By making India a party to its naval
modernisation programmes,
agreeing to coordinated patrolling,
and opening itself to Indian transit
corridors such as the Sittwe
Port built by India and ready to be
commissioned, Myanmar has signaled
that its “China card” is essentially
designed to get the best
techno-commercial deal for itself
and is not necessarily reflective of
a burgeoning military alliance with
the PRC. Sri Lanka too seems to be
giving this signal to India of late,
by being lukewarm to Chinese requests
for the use of Trincomalee
harbour, which sits on the BoB and
is much closer to the Indian coast
than Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port,
which China has helped develop.
The Sri Lankan Navy is also beginning
to see steady transfers of naval
equipment from India.
India’s strategic community, despite
warming ties characterised
by the settlement of both land and
maritime borders, is not quite sure
about the nature of Bangladesh’s
“China card,” however. Bangladeshi
military literature continues to talk
about using China to balance India,
a country that surrounds it on three
sides and with which it still has a
major water-sharing dispute. The
timing of Bangladesh’s acquisition
of submarines also isn’t a particularly
propitious one from an Indian
naval perspective because of its
source.
One belt, one road
Indeed, India will be even more
concerned as to whether the Chinese
naval presence would extend
to being able to secure berthing facilities
for their own submarines at
Kutubdia. During the October visit
of President Xi Jinping to Dhaka,
a first by a Chinese president in 30
years, China promoted its relationship
with Bangladesh from a “comprehensive
partnership of cooperation”
to a “strategic partnership,”
while promising billions of dollars
in infrastructure investment. In
that sense, Bangladesh’s purchase
of Chinese submarines while being
promised major “One Belt, One
Road” (OBOR) investments does
bear more than a casual similarity
to China’s sale of submarines to Pakistan
and the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor. •
Source: The diplomat

8
Monday, January 30, 2017
DT
World
The dark depths of Rohingya tragedy
• Tribune Desk
Roughly a year ago, remarkable
scenes were broadcast around the
world from the streets of Yangon as
citizens gathered to participate in,
and celebrate, Myanmar’s election.
The intense atmosphere of hope
that accompanied the poll, the first
openly contested one if its kind
for decades, was an inspiration to
behold; at the time, unfamiliar observers
could be forgiven for thinking
that the country was on the
verge of making a clean break with
its troubled past.
Twelve months on and harder
political realities have come to the
fore. It has taken the sternest test
yet of the new government to show
how far Aung San Suu Kyi, the state
counsellor and de facto civilian leader,
will go to express solidarity with
the armed forces, an autonomous
state-within-a-state, which retains
the constitutional right to run key
ministries and set its own budgets.
It is perhaps out of a desire to
avoid a confrontation between
India and China’s tug of war over Nepal
• Tribune Desk
In the last week of December, China’s
Liberation Army (PLA) announced
that it is planning to hold
its first-ever joint military exercise
with Nepal. Though Chinese military
assistance to Nepal has significantly
increased in recent years,
this is the first time that China has
proposed a joint military exercise —
and Nepal accepted.
The development came as Nepal
is proposing to change some provisions
of the 1950 Peace and Friendship
Treaty with India. The treaty
states that Nepal needs to inform or
receive consent from India when it
purchases military hardware from
third countries.
By amending the treaty, Nepal
wants to change such provisions
and make independent decisions on
security issues, including the purchase
of military equipment. However,
India is still the largest supplier
of military hardware to the Nepali
Army and the two armies enjoy an
excellent relationship. Since 1950,
it has been a custom for the two
countries to confer honours on each
other’s army chiefs, which signifies
their close military-to-military ties.
Nepal willing to change military tie
Despite that closeness, in recent
years it has become clear that Nepal
is willing to change its military
relationship with India. When
China’s announced its joint military
exercise with Nepal, which
will take place in February, there
were reports that India expressed
competing parts of state power that
Suu Kyi has opted to take this stance
while neglecting to do more to help
those affected by the present crisis,
in which thousands of children
have been needlessly placed at risk
of starvation and death.
In October, a group of militants
committed the first known act of
armed aggression by the minority
in decades, eliciting a severe crackdown
by state forces and setting
into motion a series of events that
have had dire consequences.
NEPAL
Population: 26.62 million
Ethnicity
More than 120 caste/ethnic groups
Top 5,%
Chhetree
16.6
Brahman-Hill
12.18
Magar 7.12
Tharu 6.56
Tamang 5.81
Economy
Annual growth, %
6.1
4.5
4.8
3.4
4.8
4.1
5.4
3.4
unhappiness over the decision.
Though there has been no official
announcement from the Indian
government expressing displeasure,
reports from Indian media and
experts indicate that New Delhi is
not happy.
There is no reason that India
should worry about a Nepal-China
military exercise. China is far from
the only country with the distinction
of conducting such drills with
Nepal. In fact, Nepal and India have
their own annual military exercise
is already in place. Similarly, there
is an annual Nepal-US military drill.
‘Distraught and disgusted’
It is in this context that the lives of
thousands of minors have been imperilled.
Humanitarian aid to parts
of northern Rakhine state was suspended
following the declaration of
a “military operations area” in which
the army has been conducting counter-insurgency
sweeps. Allegations of
rapes, killings, and arson leaked out
of the locked-down zone, only to be
met with fervent denials from various
parts of the Burmese state; verification
has been close to impossible given
that independent media have been
denied access to the affected areas.
Email updates provided to humanitarian
groups by the UN acknowledge
that roughly 3,000 children
in parts of Northern Rakhine
State are suffering from Severe Acute
Malnutrition — a condition affecting
infants and children produced by
prolonged periods without access to
adequate food and drink.
A state of denial — and complicity
Against the backdrop of deteriorating
humanitarian conditions and
alleged atrocities, Suu Kyi, known in
the past for her panegyrics to human
rights, has signed off on an increasingly
absurd campaign of denial delivered
by parts of the government
under her control. Saying little on
the matter herself, the message from
her subordinates has been one of total
support for the military.
While the decision not to alienate
the armed forces may be shrewd,
and certain efforts to do good may be
taking place “behind closed doors,”
the consequences of this political
Forecast
0.5
2008 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 2016
Religion
Hinduism
81 Buddhism
9
Christianity
1
GDP
current
$20.88 billion
GDP
per capita
$732
Inflation
7.2%
Kirat
3
Islam
4
Surface area:
147,181 km²
theatre have been deadly serious.
It has eased pressure on the military-controlled
parts of the state
that are playing a key role in blocking
aid, despite the fact that the
move to suspend access amounts to
a form of collective punishment for
communities in the area.
‘Burnt alive in their homes’
To date, the government has resisted
calls for an international investigation
of the violence, most recently
announcing a second, entirely domestic
probe into the situation.
The new investigation has drawn
controversy given that it will be headed
by a retired general once blacklisted by
the United States, known for his role in
suppressing popular protests in 2007.
Such an intervention could not come
soon enough; yet crucial questions
remain — will this be yet more theatre,
accompanied only by minimal
change on the ground? If so, how
much worse does it have to get before
more meaningful steps are taken? •
INDIA
Tourist arrivals
Thousands
510
603
736
60 km
CHINA
803
Source: The Diplomat
Everest
8,848 m
Kathmandu
798
790
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Top 5 nationalities Length of stay
Average
1
2
3
4
5
India
China
USA
Thailand
Britain
12 days
India has no right to say that Nepal
cannot conduct military exercises
with another partner — in this case,
China. Nepal has the sovereign
right to make that decision.
In addition, India has its own
joint military exercise with China.
Even though relations between India
and China soured in 2016, due
(among other factors) to China’s reluctance
to support India in its bid
to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group,
both countries conducted a 13-day
joint military exercise in November
2016. This was the sixth iteration of
the India-China joint military exercise.
India’s own experience with
China should reassure it that joint
exercises are not an indicator of
converging strategic interests.
India wants to maintain Nepal as
its “sphere of influence,” while China
wants to increase its clout. India sees
China’s growing influence in Nepal
as not only related to trade and commerce,
but a part of China’s larger
strategy to encircle it in South Asia.
India v China
Indeed, recent moves offer a clear
indication that there is increasing
competition between India and
Media Corner
Donald J Trump ‏@
realDonaldTrump
Hi everybody! Back to the original
handle. Is this thing still on? Michelle
and I are off on a quick vacation,
then we’ll get back to work.
Donald J Trump ‏@
realDonaldTrump
Had a great meeting at CIA Headquarters
yesterday, packed house,
paid great respect to Wall, long
standing ovations, amazing people.
WIN!
Narendra Modi ‏@
narendramodi
We are very proud of the rich culture
of Tamil Nadu. All efforts are being
made to fulfil the cultural aspirations
of Tamil people.
China in Nepal. For the long time,
India enjoyed almost exclusive influence
in Nepal. However, in the
last decade, mainly after the abolition
of monarchy in 2008, other
international players, especially
China, have increased their influence
in Nepal, mainly on political
matters.
At the same time, Chinese diplomacy
in Nepal has shifted from
“quiet diplomacy” to vocal diplomacy.
There are reports that China
has increasingly been airing its
concerns over the internal political
affairs of Nepal, as India has long
done. In the past year, China has
also been dragged into the game of
government changes in Nepal.
After Nepal promulgated its constitution
in 2015, and amid the subsequently
strained relations with
India, interaction and exchanges
between Nepal and China substantially
improved. After accusations of
a blockade (which India denied) at
the Nepal-India border, Nepal had
to rely on China to meet its everyday
essential needs — though its
trade with China was not sufficient.
The tensions between Nepal and
India provided room for China to
increase its influence in all areas
of Nepal, including in politics. The
Nepali government at the time, led
by Communist Party of Nepal (Unified
Marxist-Leninist) or CPN-UML
Chairman KP Oli, signed a trade and
transit agreement with China, ending
India’s monopoly on Nepal’s external
trade. •
Source: The diplomat