World supplement_13 Feb 2017

DT
VOL1, ISSUE 4 | Monday, february 13, 2017
World Tribune
Modi’s
trial by fire
Demonetisation
gambit has
2 backfired for Modi
3
Trump paints dark
picture in defence
of travel ban
Latin American
resilience tested by
7 recession, Trump

2
Monday, february 13, 2017
DT
Analysis Analysis
3
DT
Monday, february 13, 2017
Demonetisation gambit has backfired
for Narendra Modi
Trump paints dark picture in
defence of travel ban
• Ajoy Bose
Confused and conflicting signals from the
Bharatiya Janata Party to its supporters in
the run up to crucial Uttar Pradesh assembly
polls, kicked off on Saturday, appear to have
seriously handicapped the saffron juggernaut
that had swept the state barely three years
ago in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
The party today is trapped between its
traditional approach of polarising the Hindu
vote against the Muslim minority and the
new stratagem of provoking a class war between
the haves and the have-nots through
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dramatic
war on black money announced in early November.
With only a few days left for polling
in the first phase of elections, neither the old
communal ploy nor the new demonetisation
gambit appears to have taken off in the BJP
campaign.
The absence of an emotive pitch to the
voter that is normally the hallmark of the formidable
Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh propaganda
machine is palpable in western Uttar
Pradesh where the polls begin later this week.
Significantly, this is the same region, scorched
by the communal flames of the Muzzafarnagar
riots in 2013, that helped the BJP’s very
successful campaign to polarise the entire
Hindu vote in its favour some months later
in the parliamentary polls. Even after the advent
of the Modi regime in New Delhi, various
groups allied to the RSS, helped covertly and
overtly by BJP leaders, had kept communal
tensions simmering in western Uttar Pradesh
till not so long ago.
No communal problems
Yet despite initial fears that the region would
be turned into a communal cauldron just before
the state assembly to repeat the 2014 BJP
triumph, there was little evidence of animosity
between Hindus and Muslims to be seen
during a recent road trip through several districts
in the region including Muzaffarnagar
and Shamli, which were torn apart by riots
earlier. In fact, both communities seemed
keen to forget the past and get on with their
lives, stressing local civic problems and not
the riots as the real electoral issues.
“The netas created the riots and all of us
have suffered because of so much economic
disruption. We don’t want to look back but
need to move on,” declared a Hindu sweet
shop owner in Muzaffarnagar city, echoing a
common refrain from most members of the
community across riot-affected areas.
Muslims seemed to consciously veer away
from the subject of riots that killed, maimed
and displaced so many members of their
community. “We are worried about problems
that face us today and not what happened in
the past” was a common response from agricultural
labourers, students and shopkeepers
belonging to the minority community, when
asked about the communal conflagration that
had engulfed the region in the recent past.
Interestingly, in a recent television show,
in which local residents in and around Muzaffarnagar
participated, the entire audience,
including a sizeable delegation of BJP
supporters, loudly agreed that there was no
Indian Prime Minister and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Leader Narendra Modi lookson during a state
assembly election rally in Ghaziabad on February 8, 2017, in Uttar Pradesh
AFP
The netas created the riots and all of us have suffered
because of so much economic disruption. We don’t want to
look back but need to move on
communal tension in the region. Hindu-Muslim
relations was not an issue in the coming
polls, they said.
Tainted leaders
The BJP leaders from the region, such as Sangeet
Som, Suresh Rana , Hukum Singh and
Sanjeev Balyan, notorious for spreading communal
tension, are on the backfoot.
Som, sitting MLA from Sardhana, is struggling
in his constituency with many Hindus
complaining that he had neglected the area.
Rana, MLA from Thana Bhawan, Shamli
district is in trouble from various other caste
groups in his constituency for favouring his
own Thakur caste.
Hukum Singh, the BJP member of Parliament
who created such a stir last year about
an exodus of Hindus from Muslim dominated
Kairana, is being criticised for choosing his
daughter as the local candidate instead of his
more popular nephew who is now contesting
as a rebel.
Balyan, the BJP member of Parliament from
Muzaffarnagar, who also happens to be a minister
of state in Modi’s council of ministers at
the Centre, is in a similar situation. A local BJP
leader, who lives just few houses away from
Balyan’s house in Muzaffarnagar city, shook
his head sadly and claimed that although he
had “captured” nine polling booths in 2014 on
behalf of the BJP, he is unlikely to lift a finger
this time beyond casting his own vote. “My
own Jat community is very unhappy with the
BJP so what can I do?” he lamented.
Disruption by demonetisation
The disarray among local BJP leaders and
workers and their inability to polarise the
Hindu voter partly stems from the confusion
in the party created by the parallel strategy of
pitting the poor against the rich suddenly introduced
by the prime minister a few months
ago. This unfamiliar politics of class war, never
used by the Sangh or the BJP before, has
alienated sections of their core base of traders,
shopkeepers and farmers who have been
hurt by the drastic disruption of cash flow. At
the same time the party has simply not been
able to convince the poor of the benefits of
demonetisation particularly as they have
emerged as the real victims of the unprecedented
squeeze put on the cash economy.
Not surprisingly, the BJP is now hastily
retreating from its earlier plan of using
notebandi as its main weapon for the Uttar
Pradesh polls. It is clearly on the defensive
and at pains to claim that the sufferings
caused by demonetisation were a temporary
blip and are being falsely exaggerated by its
opponents. The BJP leaders and workers
hardly mention notebandi in their campaign
pamphlets or posters and even Modi, in his
public meeting in Meerut, made only a brief
reference to it towards the end of his speech.
At the Shukratal television audience show
mentioned above, the BJP team, while countering
sharp criticism of demonetisation by
other participants, did not praise it but simply
dismissed it as just a brief disruption that
did not cause that much harm as opponents
of the party were claiming.
The ‘Jat’ anger
Unable to rally its supporters either on a communal
plank or a war unleashed against the
rich and corrupt, the BJP is facing defections
from previously supportive groups, particularly
the powerful Jat community in western
Uttar Pradesh that had voted as a bloc for the
party in the 2014 polls. The Jats are upset
with the Modi government at the Centre for
not doing enough to get them a good price for
the sugarcane crop they grow in their fields.
They are also increasingly restless about the
delay in accepting the demand for reservation
for their community and even more aggrieved
with the way the BJP government
in Haryana put down the Jat agitation in the
state last year.
The disenchantment among the Jats with
the BJP has led to the miraculous electoral revival
of Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Ajit Singh,
son of the late former prime minister and Jat
patriarch Charan Singh. Not only is he taking
away vital Jat votes but even the abrupt manner
he was earlier evicted from the MP’s bungalow
by the Modi’s government has become
a matter of grievance and many members of
his caste said this had hurt Jat pride.
So while the BJP is a contender in most
seats in western Uttar Pradesh, its tentative
election campaign and inability to rally more
groups and communities under its banner
means that the party may not get the kick
start it would have hoped for in the first phase
of the polls. •
Ajoy Bose is a renowned Indian political
commentator and journalist. The article was first
published in scroll.in.
• Tribune Desk
The more Donald Trump tries to build support
for his refugee and immigration ban, the
darker the world seems to get.
In defending his policies barring refugees
and curbing immigration, the president is
painting an increasingly ominous picture of
the danger posed by Islamic extremists. In his
speeches, tweets and an imposing new tally
of what Trump calls an unreported “genocide”
by the Islamic State group, he has raised
the prospect of imminent attacks on the United
States and cast the debate over safety as
a clash between radical Islam and the West.
Early Wednesday, Trump took to Twitter
to say that if the US doesn’t win the court case
over his travel ban, the country “can never
have the security and safety to which we are
entitled.”
To Trump’s supporters, the president’s
dark warnings show that he has a cleareyed
view of the terror threat facing the US
— a threat they believe Barack Obama downplayed.
Trump’s critics fear he is hyping one
threat at the expense of others.
Islamic extremism is “an enemy that celebrates
death and totally worships destruction,”
Trump said Monday while visiting the
headquarters of the military’s Central Command.
Trump terror list
The list his administration is circulating highlights
the debate. The White House points to
the 78 incidents as evidence that the news
media are intentionally downplaying the
dangers of the Islamic State group. “Most” incidents
on the list haven’t received sufficient
attention, the White House says.
Trump’s terror list, however, focuses only
on attacks the White House says were “executed
or inspired by” the Islamic State. Terrorism
carried out in the name of other causes
didn’t make the list.
For example, Trump’s list does not include
violence by Boko Haram, an Islamist
insurgent group operating in West Africa
that pledged allegiance to the Islamic State
in 2015. It is responsible for far more deaths
than IS, including suicide bombings, mass
shootings and massacres of civilians in Nigeria
and neighbouring countries.
The White House list also leaves off last
month’s attack on a mosque in Quebec,
where six Muslim men were shot and killed.
A French Canadian man known for far-right,
nationalist views has been charged and Canadian
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has called
it an act of terrorism against Muslims.
The White House says Trump did call
Trudeau to express condolences. But his failing
to mention it now appears to reflect his
narrow focus on the Islamic State.
Although he has been vague about his
plans for countering the Islamic State in its
strongholds in Iraq and Syria, he has moved
swiftly to try to keep the group’s followers
out of the United States, signing an executive
order in his first week in office that banned
all entries from seven Muslim-majority countries
with terror ties. Trump’s directive also
halted the entire US refugee program for four
US REFUGEE ADMISSIONS
People fleeing the 7 countries on Trump’s travel ban are among the largest groups of refugees admitted
to the United States since the 9/11 attacks
Refugees admitted
Ranking
In 2016
From Oct 2001 to Dec 2016
D R Congo 19,829 1 Myanmar
166,149
Syria 15,479
Myanmar
Iraq
3
11,332 4
Somalia 10,786 5
Bhutan
Iran
6
4,152 7
Ukraine
Afghanistan
Eritrea
8
9
10
Sudan 1,479 11
Yemen 27 39
Libya 4 63
Source: US Refugee Processing Center
Trump’s rhetoric marks a sharp shift from his most recent
predecessors. In the aftermath of the September 11, 2001,
attacks, President George W Bush emphasised that the US
was not at war with Muslims. Obama refused to use the term
“radical Islamic extremism,” arguing that it validated terrorists
who claimed they were acting on behalf of their faith
months and banned Syrians from the US indefinitely.
The ban is now held up in the courts,
prompting a fierce response from the president.
Trump’s attack on the judiciary
In a strikingly personal attack on the judiciary,
Trump said the judge should bear the
blame if an attack occurs while his ban is
paused. He’s warned that the court order
has allowed people to start “pouring in” to
the United States, despite the fact that those
who do not currently hold legal visas must go
through lengthy vetting procedures before
entering the country.
“IS said we are going to infiltrate the United
States and other countries through the migration,”
Trump said during a White House meeting
with sheriffs Tuesday. “And then we’re not
allowed to be tough on the people coming in?
Explain that one.”
Evelyn Farkas, who served as deputy assistant
defence secretary during the Obama
2
Iraq
Somalia
Bhutan
Iran 47,250
D R Congo
Cuba
6
7
Ukraine 8
Russia
Sudan
9
21,191 10
Syria 18,168 12
Yemen 150 52
Libya 12 87
administration, argues that the president’s
warnings are creating “a level of concern that
probably isn’t warranted by the threats assessment.”
In recent years, federal law enforcement
agencies have focused more on the threat
posed by homegrown extremists — people,
usually men, who are already in the US and
who find themselves attracted to Islamic
State propaganda of violence and mayhem.
Still, officials concede that it’s impossible to
guarantee a mistake-free screening process
for people seeking to come to the US, particularly
given the paucity of information sometimes
available on people entering from Syria.
White House spokesman Sean Spicer says
the president isn’t trying to scare Americans.
Still, he said forebodingly on Tuesday, “The
earth is a very dangerous place.”
Steve Bannon, the architect?
The president’s intense focus on Islamic terrorism
is shared by some of his top aides,
including National Security Adviser Michael
140,502
100,935 3
4
5
Flynn and chief strategist Steve Bannon, who
was one of the architects of the refugee ban.
Flynn has called Islam a “political ideology”
and said it “hides behind being a religion.”
Trump’s rhetoric marks a sharp shift from
his most recent predecessors. In the aftermath
of the September 11, 2001, attacks,
President George W Bush emphasised that
the US was not at war with Muslims. Obama
refused to use the term “radical Islamic extremism,”
arguing that it validated terrorists
who claimed they were acting on behalf of
their faith.
The contrast between Trump and Obama
is particularly striking.
While Obama insisted the Islamic State
did not pose an existential threat to the US,
Trump says the group is “on a campaign of
genocide” and is “determined to strike our
homeland.” Obama warned about overstating
the Islamic State’s capabilities, while Trump
says the group’s scope has not been reported
widely enough.
Beyond the refugee ban, Trump officials
are looking at whether to revamp a US program
aimed at countering violent extremism
to target only Islamic-inspired terrorists, not
white supremacists or other groups. They’ve
also discussed an executive order that would
label the Muslim Brotherhood, an Egyptian-based
group, a terrorist organization.
The White House has also discussed
dropping sanctions on Russia that were
levied in retaliation for provocations in
Ukraine if Moscow would work alongside
the US in fighting the Islamic State. Vice
President Mike Pence appeared to raise that
prospect over the weekend, saying the continuation
of the sanctions depends on “the
opportunity perhaps to work on common
interests.” •
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Week
Monday, february 13, 2017
DT
Week in Review
in Review 5
DT
Monday, february 13, 2017
65 years of Queen’s reign
Members of the Honourable Artillery Company fire a 62 round royal gun salute from the Gun Wharf
outside the Tower of London with Tower Bridge seen in the background to mark the anniversary of
Queen Elizabeth II’s accession to the throne in London on February 6. Queen Elizabeth II, the world’s
longest-reigning monarch, set a new record Monday as the first British sovereign to reach their
sapphire jubilee, marking 65 years on the throne
AFP
AFP
February 8
UN appeals for $2.1bn
for Yemen aid
The UN appealed Wednesday for $2.1 billion to provide desperately
needed aid to millions of people in war-ravaged
Yemen this year, warning the country could soon face famine.
“Two years of war have devastated Yemen and millions
of children, women and men desperately need our help,”
warned UN humanitarian aid chief Stephen O’Brien in a
statement.
The appeal from UN agencies and other humanitarian
organisations aims to gather funds to help some 12 million
of the nearly 19 million people expected to need assistance
across Yemen this year.
The poor Arab country has been engulfed in war for
years, but the conflict escalated dramatically in March 2015
when the Saudi-led coalition launched air raids against Shiite
Huthi rebels, who had taken over the capital and seized
swathes of the country’s centre and north.
AFP
February 6
Guard shoots Afghan
diplomat dead in Pakistan
An Afghan guard with a “personal
grudge” shot dead a junior diplomat
inside the Afghan consulate
in Pakistan’s port city of Karachi
on Monday, police said. “The
guard, Rehmat Ullah, opened fire
on a junior diplomat Mohammad
Zaki Uro, killing him on the spot
and wounding another consulate
official,” senior police official
Azad Khan said.
Paramilitary Rangers and a
heavy police contingent surrounded
the consulate immediately
after the attack amid fears
of a possible extremist assault.
“There was nothing of the sort
and it seems the guard had some
sort of personal grudge with the
diplomat,” Khan said. The guard
has been arrested, he said, and
an investigation launched.
The consulate is located in Karachi’s
upscale Clifton neighbourhood.
The missions of Indonesia,
the UK and France are nearby.
February 7
UK journalist stands by
quotes in Fillon scandal
A British journalist whose interview with the wife of
Francois Fillon added fuel to an expenses scandal engulfing
his bid for the French presidency on Monday
hit back at his claims of his wife being quoted out of
context.
Fillon, the candidate for the rightwing Republicans
party, has seen his campaign plunged into turmoil by
the revelation that his British-born spouse was paid
more than 800,000 euros for a suspected fake job as
his assistant.
The scandal deepened last week when one of
France’s main investigative news programmes, Envoye
Special, broadcast previously unseen footage from a
2007 interview in which Penelope Fillon said she had
“never been actually his assistant or anything like that”.
February 9
West African troops get
three-month Gambia
extension
West African troops will spend three more months in The Gambia,
their mission chief said Thursday, as President Adama Barrow
carries out large-scale reforms of the army and intelligence
services.
Five hundred Ghanaian, Senegalese and Nigerian troops will
remain in the tiny west African country until at least late May,
according to a communique released on behalf of Senegalese
General Francois Ndiaye.
“The three-month mandate... will start its mission on February
21, 2017,” the statement said, and would continue to assure
the safety of Barrow, his government and state institutions.
A statement from Barrow’s office late Wednesday did not
specify exact dates or troop numbers, but said the three-month
extension was “renewable”.
February 10
US appeals court
rules against Trump
on travel ban
A US court on Thursday unanimously refused
to reinstate Donald Trump’s ban on refugees
and nationals from seven Muslim-majority
countries, dealing the new president and his
controversial law-and-order agenda a major
defeat.
The San Francisco federal appeals court’s
ruling on Trump’s executive order, issued on
January 27 with no prior warning and suspended
by a lower court a week later, capped
a turbulent first three weeks of his presidency.
A defiant Trump quickly pledged to battle
on, tweeting within minutes of the decision:
“SEE YOU IN COURT, THE SECURITY OF OUR
NATION IS AT STAKE!”
“It’s a political decision,” he told reporters
later.
The Justice Department had asked the
Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals to restore
the measure on an emergency basis, but the
three-judge panel instead maintained the
suspension ordered by a federal judge in Seattle.
AFP
AFP
February 11
Rival rallies jam Seoul over Park impeachment
Hundreds of thousands of people
took part in rival rallies in Seoul Saturday,
protesting for and against
the impeachment of President Park
Geun-Hye, after months of political
turmoil in South Korea.
Park was impeached by parliament
in December over a corruption
scandal that tapped into mounting
economic and social frustrations and
brought millions of people onto the
streets in weekly protests.
The Constitutional Court in Seoul is
now deliberating whether to approve
the impeachment, which would trigger
new elections, or to allow her to
see out her five-year term.
Saturday’s pro-Park protest,
which drew an estimated 50,000
people, attracted large numbers of
the elderly who grew up under her
late dictator father, Park Chung-
Hee, the leader credited with the
country’s rapid industrialisation.
They claimed Park’s impeachment
was a work of “pro-North
Korea” leftists, urging the court to
turn it down and bring Park back to
power. The rally took place outside
the City Hall as anti-Park protesters,
estimated by organisers to
number 500,000.
February 12
Army kills four militants
in Indian Kashmir
Four suspected rebels and two Indian army soldiers were killed in a
gun battle in a village in Indian-administered Kashmir on Sunday, an
army spokesman said.
The militants were hiding in a south Kashmir village when the
army and police surrounded it, a police official said.
In the ensuing fire fight four militants and two soldiers were
killed. “Four terrorists were killed and four weapons were recovered
from the encounter site,” army spokesman in Srinagar, Col Manish
said.
“Two soldiers were also martyred and three injured during the
encounter,” he added. The operation was ongoing, Col Manish said.
A civilian, the young son of the owner of the house in which the
militants were hiding, was also killed, Jammu and Kashmir police
chief SP Vaid said.
AFP

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Monday, february 13, 2017
DT
World Analysis
7
DT
Monday, february 13, 2017
US MULLS CUTS TO UN PEACEKEEPING
Washington’s new UN envoy Nikki Haley is undertaking a far-reaching
review of UN peacekeeping that is likely to lead to closures of missions.
US de-funding could open the door for China – the second largest
financial contributor to UN peacekeeping – to bolster its role
MISSIONS: Personnel at Dec 2016 (fatalities) Budget Jul 2016 – Jun 2017
Kosovo
Lebanon Kashmir
362 (55)
11,389 (312) 111 (11)
$36m
$489m $21m
Western
Sahara
467 (15)
$57m
Liberia
3,018
(197)
$187m
TOP CONTRIBUTORS
US 2 .
China 1 .
Japan .
Germany .
France .
UK .
Russia .
Italy .
Canada 2.
Spain 2.
Others 2
Mali
13,456 (110)
$933m
Haiti
6,168 (185)
$346m
Cyprus
1,103 (183)
$55m
Côte
d’Ivoire
3,656 (144)
$153m
Dem Rep
of Congo
22,590 (102)
$1.2bn
Budget
(2016-17)
Source: United Nations Picture: Getty Images All figures rounded
Syria
969 (46)
$48m
Middle East
384 (51)
$69m
Sudan (Darfur)
20,645 (237)
$1bn
Sudan (Abyei)
4,719 (21)
$269m
South Sudan
15,171 (47)
$1bn
Central African Rep.
13,098 (25)
$921m
Ni i Haley: Seeking to lower US
share of funding to below 25%
© GRAPHIC NEWS
Explainer
The fuss over
Trump and
the Johnson
amendment
Moving on a campaign promise, President
Donald Trump said Thursday he will work
for the repeal of the Johnson Amendment
to free religious organisations from constraints
on political activity. A look at the
law in question:
What it does
The law prohibits tax-exempt charitable
organisations such as churches from
participating directly or indirectly in any
political campaign to support or oppose
a candidate. That means no donations
to candidates’ campaigns and no public
statements explicitly on behalf of or
against a candidate.
What it doesn’t do
It doesn’t stop religious groups from
weighing in on public policy or organising
in ways that may benefit one side in a
campaign. Plenty of religiously grounded
organisations or movements have delved
fiercely into political causes, and preachers
of the left and right are not shy about
exhorting their followers to political action.
Why it matters
To supporters, the law is central to the
constitutional separation of church and
state. To opponents, it’s a gag on the
constitutional guarantee of freedom of
expression.
Genesis: In the beginning
A Republican Congress and Republican
president, Dwight Eisenhower, brought
the law into effect in 1954, but it was the
handiwork of Lyndon Johnson, then a
Democratic senator and later a president.
Fitfully enforced
The IRS has not been particularly aggressive
in enforcing the law. Revoking a religious
organization’s tax exemption risks
accusations that the government is crushing
religious freedom. But the fact it possesses
that power has kept interference
in partisan politics in check, as the law’s
supporters see it, and represents government
overreach in the mind of critics.
In September, Kentucky Governor
Matt Bevin told preachers the law was a
“paper tiger” and they should embrace
political speech more boldly. “There is
no reason to fear it,” the Republican said.
“There is no reason to be silent.”
What a violation looks like
Runquist cites a case in the 1990s when
a New York church bought full-page
newspaper advertisements that called on
Christians not to vote for Bill Clinton. The
organisation Americans United for the
Separation of Church and State lodged a
complaint with the IRS. The IRS investigated,
denied the church’s exempt status and
a federal court upheld that decision. •
Source: AP
Latin America resilience tested by recession,
disasters and Trump
• Thomson Reuters Foundation
GDP in billion US dollars
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
5,058.13
5,887.86 5,904.3
Latin American newspapers react to Trump win
Faltering growth in many Latin
American nations could aggravate
the impact of disasters and other
shocks on their people, warn development
experts, pointing to Venezuela’s
crippling food shortages
and the struggle to rebuild stormhit
Haiti.
Alongside clinging onto gains
in lifting people out of poverty as
some governments shave social
spending, the region faces multiple
challenges - from violent
crime spurring migration from
Central America, to drought in Bolivia
and help for conflict-hit parts
of Colombia after its recent peace
deal.
“Venezuela is a crisis out of
proportion to what we’ve seen in
this hemisphere for a long, long
time,” said Luisa Villegas, a senior
programme director with the Pan
American Development Foundation
(PADF).
“Venezuela is so extreme just because
you have a government that
won’t admit there is a crisis, so it’s
very hard for the international community
to provide aid,” she added.
A generation of Venezuelan
children could suffer developmental
problems stemming from poor
nutrition in the country, which is
plagued by soaring prices, chronic
food shortages and limited access
to healthcare, she said.
Efforts to strengthen people’s resilience
across Latin America could
be hampered by weak economic
growth after two years of recession
against a backdrop of sliding natural
resource prices.
Brazil is set to emerge from its
worst-ever downturn, but 12m are
out of work in the country. The International
Labour Organisation
has predicted unemployment will
creep up to 8.4% this year across
the region, which ranks as the
world’s most unequal.
“In many countries, there’s not
necessarily the scope to expand
social programmes, especially anti-poverty
programmes,” said Suzanne
Duryea, principal economist
for the Inter-American Development
Bank’s social division.
Those programmes, which often
include schemes to pay families
to vaccinate their children
or enrol them in school, already
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
FROM 2010 TO 2020 (IN BILLION US DOLLARS)
5,980.26 5,916.65
5,1117.52
5,007.96
have “considerable coverage” in
Brazil and Mexico, while Ecuador
is starting to scale back cash transfers,
she added.
The bank is focusing on programmes
that provide short-term
social protection while aiming to
improve the quality of health and
education in the long run, she said.
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Additional information: South America
Source: Statista
5,383.5
5,547.99
5,848.89
6,182.69
Disaster risk
Hurricane Matthew - which killed
up to 1,000 people as it ripped
through Haiti last October, leaving
1.4m in need of aid - showed that
better preparation for disasters remains
crucial in a region prone to
droughts, floods, storms and earthquakes,
said experts.
“There’s a very large gap... between
the capacity in a country
like Cuba - and even the Dominican
Republic next door - and the capacities
of Haiti,” said Jessica Faieta,
Latin America and Caribbean director
for the United Nations Development
Programme.
She emphasised the need to invest
in protecting people from disasters
and helping communities organise
themselves better to prevent
loss of life.
While early warning and civil
defence systems have improved
significantly across the region, the
work is far from finished, said Niels
Holm-Nielsen, the World Bank’s
lead specialist for disaster risk management.
“We still see large disasters that
kill a lot of people, so more progress
needs to happen. It’s true both in
Latin America and at a global level,”
he said.
Alleviating the lingering effects
of a widespread drought linked to
the El Nino climate pattern is another
priority, said development experts.
Northeast Brazil, Guatemala
and other areas of Central America
have been hit, with protests erupting
in Bolivia which is suffering its
worst drought in 25 years.
AP
Trump threat
Another major problem undermining
development across the region
is organised crime. Rising gang violence
in El Salvador, Guatemala and
Honduras has made those countries
the most deadly outside of a war
zone, according to the UN refugee
agency (UNHCR), which has said
the region is facing a refugee crisis
as hundreds of thousands flee their
homes.
Economic migrants, meanwhile,
face an uncertain outlook due to
expected shifts in Washington’s
policies under US President Donald
Trump, which are likely to hit Mexico
the hardest.
Trump has said he wants to
clamp down on people illegally entering
the United States from Mexico
by building a controversial wall
along the border - which he may
fund by slapping a 20% import tax
on goods produced in Mexico.
He could also potentially follow
through on a threat to deport millions
of Latin American illegal immigrants
living in the United States.
And many struggling families could
be hit if Trump blocks remittances
from migrant workers there, which
totalled $27bn last year to Mexico
alone, according to bank BBVA Bancomer.
Amid the pressures of the past
two years, in which the trend of
Latin Americans escaping poverty
to the middle class tailed off, the
risk now is that more people will
start sliding back down the ladder.
“The challenge is to make sure
those gains from the last decade are
still maintained and people don’t
go back into poverty,” said PADF’s
Villegas. •