BETTER BUSINESS BETTER WORLD

heating and cooling technology and switching to efficient lighting and other
electrical appliances.
• Electric and hybrid vehicles (US$310-320 billion). Market research predicts
annual sales of battery-powered electric vehicles and hybrids will grow from
about 2.3 million units in 2014 to 11.5 million by 2022, or 11 percent of the global
market. 58 Assuming an average life of 15 years, the total global passenger vehicle
fleet will turn over completely by 2030, presenting an opportunity for a huge
increase in sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. 59 Electric
and hybrid vehicles could comprise an estimated 62 percent of new light-duty
vehicle sales in 2030, as long as battery costs continue to fall and investments in
charging infrastructure grow. 60
Energy and materials. Growth in demand for energy could slow to 2030 because
of demographic changes and China's shift from investment-led growth towards
greater consumption. That said, over 1.5 billion people are expected to join the
higher energy-consuming income brackets by 2030. 61 Meanwhile great inequality
in energy consumption persists, with 1.2 billion people still lacking access to
electricity. 62 Moreover, risks concerning the location of new sources of supply, their
environmental impact, water use and technical complexity are likely to add to the
supply costs of energy and materials.
The 17 largest business opportunities arising from tackling these and further energy
challenges have a potential value in 2030 of over US$4.3 trillion in current prices.
They include:
• Circular models – automotive (US$475-810 billion). Collection rates for
vehicles at the end of their life are generally very high, over 70 percent in the
EU for example. 63 However, most collected vehicles are recycled into their base
materials, which is energy intensive and results in loss of value. In fact, only a
small number of “weakest-link” components are typically responsible for ending
a vehicle’s useful life, which can be significantly extended if these components
are remanufactured and used to refurbish cars.
• Expansion of renewables (US$165-605 billion). There is a massive opportunity
for renewable generators and equipment manufacturers. The International
Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) REmap scenario forecasts that, including
hydropower, renewables’ share of generation worldwide could increase to 45
percent by 2030, from around 23 percent in 2014 64 Under this scenario, wind’s
share of global generation could more than quadruple from three percent in 2014
to 14 percent in 2030, and solar PV from less than one percent to seven percent. 65
In Europe, renewables penetration is already growing quickly – in Denmark
in 2015, wind supplied 42 percent of power consumption – while annual global
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