13 March 2017 World supplement final

DT
VOL1, ISSUE 8 | Monday, March 13, 2017
World Tribune
Nowhere
to run
The coming civil war in
2 the Middle East
3
How Narendra Modi
won Uttar Pradesh
While US military still
dominates in Asia,
7 China is on the rise

2
Monday, March 13, 2017
DT
Analysis
The coming civil war in the Middle East
The destabilisation of the Islamic world is the grand strategy of the US in order to eliminate any
alternative poles to its hegemony
• Hakan Karakurt
When the Cold War ended peacefully
in 1989 with the collapse of
Communist bloc led by the Soviet
Union (USSR), the hope to build a
just, secure and democratic world
rose in the minds of many people.
Unfortunately the reality was
just the opposite. Although the US
promised Russians that if the USSR
peacefully ended the Cold War, the
West would not advance East even
one centimetre, twelve ex-Communist
countries joined Nato, and US
and UK troops have been deployed
to the Baltic countries, Poland and
Romania. Even twin brothers, Russians
and Ukrainians, began to fight
against each other in Ukraine due to
the provocations of the US and EU
to isolate Ukraine from the sphere
of the Slavic world and incorporate
her into Western Bloc as a buffer
zone and exploit the cheap labour,
good quality commodities, and
45m market for EU export products.
The grand strategy of the US is
always to hinder any pole that can
empower Heartland, Eurasia. Assuming
itself to be invincible and
the sole lord of the world, the US
chose the Islamic world as the second
target that must be weakened.
Unsurprisingly, the US lost no time,
and 434 days after the fall of the
Berlin Wall, it invaded Iraq in the
first days of 1991.
Prototype civil war
Currently, the struggle in Iraq between
Sunni and Shia Arabs and
Kurds is ongoing. Especially after
the recapturing of Mosul from IS, the
fate of the country will be clearer. In
the South, Shia Arabs are supported
by Iran, while Sunni Arabs are not
represented in the Iraq government
and to some extent Turkey and Saudi
Arabia try to represent their interests.
Kurds are divided also. Barzani
Kurds are supported by Turkey
while the Talabani side is closer to
Iran. Unfortunately, in such a separated
situation, Iraq is far from unity
and stabilisation in the near future.
The Syrian civil war was the
most devastating and bloodiest
scene of the so-called Arab Spring.
Not only the local people of Syria-
Sunni Arabs, Allewites (close to
Shias), Kurds, and Turkomans - but
also Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia
directly or via proxies engaged and
fought each other in the Syrian civil
war. Though the ceasefire is obeyed
generally in the country between
moderate opponents and the Assad
regime, the fight against IS is ongoing
and the future of the country is
unclear as the tension and clashes
continue between Turkey and Syrian
Kurds, Turkey and Russia’s direct
military interventions, and the
influx of foreign warriors such as
Shia Hezbollah, Salafi Al Nusra. The
current situation in Syria is similar
to Iraq in terms of territorial disunity
and destabilisation.
The Yemeni Civil War relying
on sectarian differences between
Sunni and Shia Arabs has divided
the country, and Saudi Arabia with
its Arab allies has interfered directly.
There is no hope for ending the
conflict in the short run, and it is
the scene of a war between Saudi
Arabia and Iran.
Furthermore, Pakistan and Lebanon
are other unstable countries
where Sunni-Shia clashes may easily
increase to a bloodier degree. In
Pakistan, suicide bombings occur
between Sunnis and Shias and in
Lebanon Shias have the armed organisation
Hezbollah. While Hezbollah
is supported by Iran, Sunni
Muslims are supported by Turkey
and Saudi Arabia. If the civil war in
the Islamic world spreads to a greater
area, Israel, India, Azerbaijan, and
Armenia can be other candidates to
be involved in military clashes.
Consequently in Iraq, Syria, and
Yemen, the core of the Islamic world
in terms of ethnicity and sects (Arabs,
Turks, Persians and Kurds and
Sunnis and Shias) either directly or
via proxies are at war against each
other. Unfortunately, if the main
actors of the Islamic world do not
change their policies against each
other, the ongoing battles are only
prototypes and signal a great civil
war in the Islamic world. The great
civil war in the Islamic world will be
not via proxies such as in Iraq, Syria
and Yemen, but direct and conventional,
i.e. regular armies and devastating
armaments will be used. War
will overwhelm and ruin the Middle
East and Islamic world.
The Syrian civil war was the most devastating and bloodiest scene of the so-called
Arab Spring. Not only the people of Syria, but also Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia
directly or via proxies engaged and fought each other in the Syrian civil war
Possible battlefields
Saudi and Gulf Kingdoms versus
Iran: The Sunni Arab Kingdoms-
United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain,
Kuwait, and Oman, act together
under the Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC) led by Saudi Arabia. GCC
countries have close military and
political ties with the US, UK, and
Turkey. Although they invest heavily
in armaments, they need foreign
military support against Iran. In addition
to US and UK military bases in
GCC, Turkey established a military
base in Qatar last year.
GCC kingdoms are in a defensive
position against Iran currently.
Iran’s military power solely based
on local sources may easily crush
GCC countries. Incidents in Iraq,
Syria and Yemen are in favour of
Iran, and GCC countries are on the
losing side regionally. Iran’s operational
military capacity and capability
via proxies is another factor
that threats GCC countries where
considerable Shia populations live.
Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria
and Shia militias in Iraq are acting
as semi-professional armies. Although
the GCC mainly rely on US
and UK military assistance, Turkey
becomes an ally against Iran due to
increasing tension between Turkey
and Iran. On the other hand, the
GCC try to incorporate other Arab
and African Muslim Sunni countries
under the umbrella of an Islamic
Army against Iran.
Turkey versus Iran: Turkey is
struggling against the Kurdish separatist
PKK since 1984. After the US
military intervention in Iraq in 1991,
Kurds in the North of Iraq declared
autonomy. Turkey firstly perceived
the Iraqi Kurds as a threat to her territorial
unity, but later Turkey and
Iraq Kurds began to cooperatively
act against Shias in Iraq. Turkey
treated Iraq’s Kurds as a buffer to
Shia Arabs and Iran’s influence in
Iraq. On the other hand, Iraqi Kurds
regard Turkey as an ally for their
existence and an economic partner.
After the Syrian Civil War, the
PKK-linked YPG began to dominate
the Syrian Kurds in Northern Syria.
Unlike Iraqi Kurds, Syrian Kurds
have close linguistic and kinship
ties with the Kurds living in the
south-eastern regions of Turkey.
Moreover the US has let the YPG
rule the Sunni Arab-populated parts
of Syria once ruled by IS. Therefore,
in addition to her territorial unity
concerns, Turkey regards the US
and Iran’s efforts as an attempt to
found a Kurdish and Shia belt in
Syria and Iraq to break the ties of
Sunni Turks and Sunni Arabs. The
historical ties between Turks and
Sunni Arabs date back to the time of
the Ottoman Empire.
Furthermore both Turkey and
Iran have Kurdish minority problems
that are not solved yet. On the
other hand, 20% of the population of
Iran living in the northern provinces
are Azerbaijani Turks who are the
same nation as Turkey’s Turks. In a
clash between Turkey and Iran, their
attitude towards this sect and ethnicity
and choice will be very crucial
determining the result of war.
Lebanon scenario: Lebanon,
composed of Sunni and Shias Muslims
as well as Christians, and internal
politics based on sharp religious
and sectarian identities, is a perfect
scene where harsh clashes could take
place between Sunnis and Shias. Refugees
from Palestine and Syria, Syrian
and Israel occupation in the last
two decades, Hezbollah’s presence
and its active interference in the Syrian
Civil War all add to the complexity
of the country. Iran’s support for
Hezbollah against Israel and Sunni
opponents, Turkey and Saudi Arabia’s
backing for Sunni Lebanese Arabs
and Palestinian refugees, Israel’s
security concerns and military operations
against both Hezbollah and
Palestinian armed groups can easily
draw the country into the civil war in
the Islamic World.
Azerbaijan scenario: “The same
nation, two countries” is the slogan
of Turks in Turkey and Azeri Turks
in Azerbaijan which expresses the
degree of close ties between Turkey
and Azerbaijan. On the other hand,
“the same nation but different sect”
is the differentiating point in Turkey-Azerbaijan
relations. If Turkey
initiates a nationalistic revolt in
South Azerbaijan that is part of Iran,
then Azeri Turks have to choose
either ethnicity or their Shia sect.
Their choice is extremely important
to determining the fate of the war
between Turkey and Iran. In such a
situation, Armenia could enter the
war against Azerbaijan either as an
ally of Iran against Turks, or just to
exploit the war conditions to consolidate
her military presence in Nagorno-Karabakh
in Azerbaijan. •
Hakan Karakurt is a Turkish researcher,
and columnist. He is a political
analyst with a focus on contemporary
international politics and the politics of
the Middle East.

Analysis
3
Monday, March 13, 2017
DT
How Narendra Modi won Uttar Pradesh
• Tribune Desk
Make no mistake. The BJP win in
Uttar Pradesh is a defining moment
in Indian democracy.
In the past 25 years, never has
a party so decisively controlled
the levers of power in both Delhi
and UP, home to 200 million and
the heart of Indian politics. Rarely
has a party been able to expand its
social base, in such quick time, in
such an unprecedented manner,
across Hindu castes, reports the
Hindustan Times.
And not since the 1960s has a
party exercised such dominance
in national politics. The BJP was
strong in the west, it was expanding
in the east, but it did not have
a state in the core heartland, from
Delhi all the way to West Bengal,
even though it was seen as a cowbelt
party. That has now been addressed
— and how. And that is really
the big question.
How did the BJP win UP?
Modi ki sarkar
Travelling on the ground, it is astonishing
to see the admiration Narendra
Modi evokes. Modi travelled in
the aftermath of the decision on demonetisation,
expecting to find anger,
but saw people — in some of the
poorest districts of UP — hailing him.
Voters said he had delivered on what
he promised, that he had taken on
the rich and corrupt, that the gains
accrued from the exercise would be
eventually transferred to the poor.
The enthusiasm for demonetisation
in itself subsided in subsequent
months, but the faith in Modi
did not. From Bareilly to Balia,
from Meerut to Gorakhpur, from
Shravasti to Jhansi, we found voters
who gave a definite answer to
who would they vote for.
The 60% formula
The 60% formula is working,” said
a key BJP leader, sitting in Varanasi,
in the final lap of the elections.
The BJP assumed that Muslims,
and a majority of Yadavs and Jatavs
would not vote for the party. This
would leave 55-60% of the electorate
for the BJP to target. And in
order to do this, the party had to expand
its social base.
The BJP has always been most
successful in UP when it has constructed
a coalition of upper castes
and non-Yadav OBCs (other backward
classes). Kalyan Singh was a
product of this alliance, within the
broader Hindutva umbrella. And it
is no surprise that the last time the
BJP won an outright majority in the
state was on the basis of this alliance.
That collapsed in the mid- to
late-90s.
In 2014, it reappeared. Modi’s
OBC identity, besides other factors,
struck a chord with the state’s backward
communities. The party’s upper
caste base stayed with it. And
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gestures during a roadshow in support of their state assembly election party
candidates in Varanasi on March 4
AFP
Dalit sub communities too drifted
to the BJP.
This is what the party had to replicate
in the state.
And to do this, it embarked on a
three-pronged strategy — appoint
someone from a non-Yadav OBC
community (Keshav Prasad Maurya)
as state president; appoint office
bearers in districts from these
communities; and give them the
highest number of tickets that the
party has yet awarded to provide
representation. This was ambitious
social engineering, for it ran the
risk of alienating the party’s older
supporters. Amit Shah and the party’s
organisation man in UP, Sunil
Bansal, took the risk. It paid off.
The party also expanded in rural
areas. It put up candidates in
panchayat elections last year. Out
of 3,100 seats, it contested in 2,800
and won only 300. But in the process,
it created a pool of active leaders
at the rural level across districts.
They also had the most risky
ticket distribution exercise in the
party’s history in UP so far.
With this ambitious but extremely
careful and meticulously
planned strategy, the BJP has not
only won this election. It has transformed
its own party’s character,
and has created a generation of
leaders who will stand the party in
good stead for years to come.
The Hindu card
But Modi’s brand and the careful
construction of multi-caste alliances
would probably not have been
enough. The party also carefully
played the Hindu card.
It is difficult for the BJP to win an
election in states with a substantial
Muslim presence — for the simple
reason that it starts from a minus 20
disadvantage. It has to rely on the
rest of the electorate. To do this, it
has to be internally inclusive of Hindu
castes and since it did not give
any tickets to Muslims, it had room
to do so in UP.
It also has to inevitably infuse its
campaign with a flavour of communal
polarisation.
There was latent resentment
among many Hindu communities at
what they perceived as the administration’s
pro-Muslim tilt. There
was also a degree of annoyance at
both the alliance and the BSP’s efforts
to woo Muslims and make that
the centre piece of their respective
campaigns. This provided enough
room to the BJP to construct the
image of other parties as pandering
to the minorities.
Ironically, the Muslim vote itself
— these results indicate — appears to
have split between the alliance and
the BSP. Or even if it has gone largely
to the alliance, it was not able to
supplement it with other parties.
This holds a lesson for “secular parties”
who peg their electoral prospects
only on Muslim consolidation.
And so mix of the Modi magic,
careful caste management and social
engineering, a risky but smart
Source: TOI
ticket distribution strategy, the
use of the Hindu card, and errors
by the opposition has catapulted
the BJP to power in Uttar Pradesh.
The verdict will redefine Indian
politics. •

4
Monday, March 13, 2017
DT
Week in Review
March 6
Philippine police ‘reload’, rejoin drug war
The Philippine police chief said Monday his forces had “reloaded”
and were back fighting their president’s deadly war on drugs, just
over a month after they were withdrawn because of widespread
corruption.
President Rodrigo Duterte said in late January he had suspended
all police from his crackdown on illegal drugs, which has claimed
more than 6,500 lives, after describing them as “rotten to the core”.
National police chief Ronald Dela Rosa said Monday reforms
had been implemented to ensure there was no repeat of previous
problems, which included anti-drugs officers kidnapping and murdering
a South Korean businessman.
Philippine authorities had originally named the drug war “Double
Barrel”, in a reference to a two-pronged strategy of police operations
on the streets while also focusing on “high value” targets.
“Today we are going to relaunch the war on drugs, we’ve relaunched
our project: Double Barrel Reloaded,” Dela Rosa said at a
speech at national police headquarters in Manila.
AFP
March 8
Indian court makes
rare conviction against
Hindu radicals
An Indian court Wednesday handed down a rare guilty verdict
against three Hindu radicals over a shrine bombing,
but cleared the alleged mastermind of the attack initially
blamed on Islamist groups.
Devendra Gupta and Bhavesh Patel were convicted in a
special court in Rajasthan over their roles in the 2007 bombing
of Ajmer shrine, one of the holiest sites of Islam in India.
A third man, who was shot dead in the months after the
attack, was found guilty posthumously.
The trio was convicted of charges related to explosives
and conspiracy to commit unlawful acts over the strike that
left three dead and at least 15 injured, the men’s lawyer Jagdish
Rana told reporters outside the Jaipur court.
Their sentences will be handed down on March 16.
AFP
March 7
Europe launches fourth Earth
monitoring satellite
Europe launched a fourth satellite Tuesday for its Copernicus Earth-monitoring project to track
changes in forest cover and air pollution, the European Space Agency (ESA) announced.
The 1.1-tonne, “colour-vision” Sentinel-2B satellite blasted off on a Vega rocket from Europe’s
space port in Kourou, French Guiana, overnight, and was successfully placed in Earth orbit, it said.
In about three days, controllers will start calibrating instruments to commission the satellite,
which is to start operations in three to four months.
“With this launch we are taking another step toward advancing the Copernicus programme,
which is the most sophisticated Earth observation system in the world,” ESA director general Jan
Woerner said in a statement. Two more satellites are to follow in the coming months.
Sentinel-SB, a twin of Sentinel-2A launched in June 2015, will zoom in on changes in the Earth’s
land mass and coastal zones, forest cover and pollution in lakes and coastal waters, for example.
Between them, the Sentinel-2 pair will cover the Earth’s entire surface in five days. They are
placed in the same orbit, on opposite sides of the planet, 180 degrees apart.
“Each Sentinel-2 satellite carries an innovative high-resolution multispectral camera with 13
spectral bands for a new perspective of land and vegetation,” the agency said.
March 10
Chemical watchdog condemns
VX use in Kim murder
The world’s chemical watchdog Friday condemned the use
of the deadly VX nerve agent in the assassination of North
Korean leader Kim Jong-Un’s half-brother last month.
The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons
(OPCW) said its executive council “unequivocally condemned
the use of any chemical weapon by anyone under
any circumstances.”
The council, made up from 40 member states, called “for
those responsible for the use of chemical weapons to be held
accountable.” It also asked the OPCW’s director general Ahmet
Uzumcu to “provide technical assistance upon request
from Malaysian authorities for its national investigation.”
“The council underscored its deep interest in receiving
and considering the official results of the investigation” once
completed by Malaysia.

Week in Review 5
The colours of Holi
DT
Monday, March 13, 2017
The festival of colors, a celebration of the vibrancy of spring, fertility, love and the triumph of
good over evil, has inspired movies, music, and a plethora of whitewashed imitations. Students
of Rabindra Bharati University blow colour powder during Holi celebrations inside the university
campus in Kolkata on March 9
reuters
March 11
Native Americans march on White House over Dakota pipeline
Native American groups staged a march
to the White House Friday against the
construction of a controversial oil pipeline,
which they fear could desecrate
tribal lands and threaten drinking water.
Chanting “water is life” and shouting
out tribal calls, a circle of dancers beat
on drums in protest at the Dakota Access
Pipeline, part of which runs through
lands inhabited by the indigenous
groups.
Slushy snow fell as more than 500
demonstrators marched through the
capital before rallying in a park across
from the White House, many wearing
traditional dress and feathered headdresses
and draped in colorful printed
blankets.
“The government is violating our
public right to clean water,” Sarah Jumping
Eagle, 44, a member of the Oglala
Lakota tribe, said.
A physician, Jumping Eagle arrived in
Washington late Thursday after making
the long trek from North Dakota, where
Native Americans and their supporters
camped out for nearly a year, physically
blocking construction at the site and
drawing international attention.
She travelled to the capital with a
group of fellow demonstrators to show
her concern over the potential for oil
spills and contamination from the nearly-completed
construction project.
AFP
AFP
AFP
March 12
Dozens injured in Georgia riots
Nearly two dozen people were hospitalised Sunday in Georgia’s Black Sea port of Batumi
after police used tear gas and rubber bullets against hundreds of stone-throwing
rioters, local media reported.
The violent clashes reportedly followed a spontaneous protest by local residents
against police officers arresting several men who refused to accept a parking fine.
Eleven police and 10 demonstrators were hospitalised with injuries and symptoms
of tear gas poisoning, regional healthcare minister Zaal Mikeladze told journalists.
In an effort to calm down the worst riots Georgia has seen in decades, Interior Minister
Giorgi Mgebrishvili said he ordered the arrested men be released from custody.
Protesters, mostly youths, attempted to storm a police building and torched police
cars in the streets of Batumi, the country’s second-largest city and the most popular
tourist destination, Rustavi-2 TV network reported.
Opposition politicians said that public anger had been growing in Batumi over police
issuing disproportionate fines for minor traffic offences.
Georgia had been praised internationally for transforming its once dysfunctional police
force into one of the most disciplined law enforcement agencies in the post-Soviet
region.
March 9
UN court rejects Bosnia’s
appeal of genocide ruling
The UN’s top court on Thursday rejected Bosnia’s
appeal of a ruling that cleared Serbia of
genocide during the 1990s civil war.
The International Court of Justice, based
in The Hague, said it could not take action on
the request because “no decision has been
taken by the competent authorities, on behalf
of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a state”.
The appeal was lodged on February 23 under
a push by Bakir Izetbegovic, the Muslim
member of Bosnia’s tripartite presidency, despite
opposition to the move from the country’s
ethnic Serbs and Croats.
According to the Dayton peace agreement
that ended the country’s 1992-1995 conflict,
key decisions cannot be taken without the
consensus of representatives of the three
main ethnic groups.

6
Monday, March 13, 2017
DT
Facts
Factbox
Countdown
to Brexit
British Prime Minister Theresa May will
write to European Council President
Donald Tusk this month to trigger Brexit
under Article 50 of the EU treaty.
It should be out within two years.
Here is a timeline:
Article 50 letter
March 13: The earliest the parliament
can complete approvals to launch what
Britain says is an irrevocable divorce.
March 15: Tusk wants May’s letter
in mid-March so leaders can react at an
EU summit on April 6. Letter should be
public.
March 20: To frustrate Scotland’s ruling,
anti-Brexit SNP, May might hold off till
after the SNP congress on March 17-18.
March 25: The other 27 EU leaders
meet in Rome to mark 60 years of founding
treaty. May wants to avoid spoiling
the party by filing for divorce around
then. Self-set deadline March 31.
Summit, etcetera
April 6-7: EU27 have pencilled summit
to agree guidelines for EU executive negotiating
team led by Michel Barnier. EU
needs about four weeks to prepare the
summit, so any delay in letter may push
it back.
April 14: Good Friday. If Tusk can’t
hold summit before this, Easter holidays
across Europe will delay it until after...
April 23: French presidential election
begins but before...
May 15: French President Francois
Hollande hands over to a successor elected
in second round of voting on May 7.
April-May: Barnier will reply to leaders,
possibly in days, with his detailed “recommendations”
of how to structure talks.
Divorce deal
December 2017: Brussels wants a basic
deal on Withdrawal Treaty by year’s end,
e.g.: exit bill for Britain’s outstanding
commitments; treatment of British and
EU expats; dealing with outstanding EU
legal cases; new border rules.
Future relationship
2018: May wants a comprehensive free
trade deal. Few see two years as enough
time to agree one and Brussels wants to
hold off starting talks until after a divorce
deal. But London and some EU states
may push for parallel trade talks. An idea
of customs plans may be needed to resolve
eg Irish border problem.
B-day
March 15, 2019?: Britain will leave the
European Union. At any rate, it should
leave two years after May’s letter.
The date could be fine-tuned. Britain
could leave earlier if it gets a deal; and
the two-year deadline can be extended
if all agree. But Brussels wants Britain
out before EU elections in May 2019.
Despite mutual threats of no deal, few
want such chaos. •
Source: Reuters
Key points
Economy: Growth
forecast for 2017
increased to 2%
134.9
UK net borrowing
(exc. public banks, £bn)
113.4 119.7 Down from £68.2bn
98.5 forecast
88.0
70.7
51.7
10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17
Public finance: Stronger than forecast income tax, VAT and
corporation tax revenues means cut in borrowing of around £12bn
Devolved administrations: £350m for Scottish government, £200m
for Welsh government and £120m for Northern Ireland executive
Education: Funding for 110 new free schools, including specialist
maths schools. Replace 13,000 qualifications with just 15 new T-Levels.
Extra travel support for poorer children travelling to selective schools
Training: £500m a year investment from 2019 to boost productivity
levels. Increase training for 16 to 19-year-olds by more than 50%
NHS and social care: Extra £2bn in grant funding over next three
years. Extra £100m to help with accident and emergency waiting times
Tax: Increase national insurance for self-employed workers by 1% to
10% by April 2018 with further rise of 1% in 2019
Business rates: £300m fund for local authorities to give discretionary
relief. £1,000 discount for all pubs with rateable value below £100,000
Personal allowance: Will rise for seventh year in a row to £11,500, and
higher rate threshold to £45,000
Technology: £23bn of infrastructure investment including £300m fund
to support research talent and 1,000 doctorates in
science, technology and engineering. £270m to
encourage trailblazers in artificial intelligence,
robotics and biotech. £16m for 5G mobile
technology and £200m for fibre broadband
Duties: Vehicle excise duty frozen. 2% increase
in tax on cigarettes and 3% on rolling tobacco.
Freeze on price of beer, cider, plus whisky and
gin — vital exports for Brexit-bound Britain
Sources: HM Treasury, Office of Budget Responsibility, ONS
© GRAPHIC NEWS

Analysis
7
Monday, March 13, 2017
DT
While US military still dominates in Asia,
China is on the rise
• Tribune Desk
China’s announcement of a 7% rise
in military spending for the year
came shortly after President Donald
Trump called for a 10 percent increase
in America’s defence budget,
prompting renewed scrutiny of
how the two countries’ capabilities
compare, reports the Associated
Press.
While the US military remains
the dominant force in Asia and the
world, China has been moving from
quantity to quality and is catching
up quickly in equipment, organisation
and capability, and is increasingly
able to project power far from
its shores. Rapid economic growth,
lavish spending and a desire to regain
China’s historical role as East
Asia’s leading power are helping
drive the moves.
Below is a comparison of the
present state of the two militarise,
based on figures found in recent
US government research on China’s
capabilities and information from
defence think tanks and government
websites. Some figures are
estimates or approximations.
The big picture
China’s People’s Liberation Army
has a total of 2.3 million personnel
under arms, constituting the
world’s largest standing military. It
provides only partial information
about its order of battle, the PLA’s
mission and future plans, although
outside analysts have produced detailed
estimates. US troop strength
varies depending on need, but as
of January 31, there were 1.4 million
active service members spread
throughout the services.
Budgets
China announced last week that
defence spending would rise by 7%
this year to $151bn. While China has
the world’s second-largest defence
budget, it’s just a fraction of what
the US spends, even if analysts’ estimates
of hidden additional spending
are taken into account. Trump’s
request for an additional $54bn in
spending would bring the US defence
budget to a record $603bn,
and that’s before including tens of
billions of dollars for overseas military
operations. If approved, the
increase would mean the US was
spending 3.4% of its gross domestic
product on defence, up from 3.2% of
GDP last year. China says its budget
this year would equal 1.3% of GDP.
CHINA’S MILITARY
Main equipment deployed and spending
Army
Navy
1,600,0000
Main
battle tanks
Armoured
personnel
carriers
6,540
5,020
Helicopters 913
Artillery 13,178
Air force
398,000
Combat
aircraft
2,306
Helicopters 53
Based on an analysis by the
International Institute for
Strategic Studies
Ground forces
Owing to the PLA’s origins as a
guerilla army and former tensions
along its land border with Russia,
the ground forces continue to
dominate, with 1.6 million personnel
and a weighty emphasis on armoured
vehicles (9,150) and heavy
artillery (6,246). The US army
boasts 460,000 personnel with
another 182,000 in the Marines.
It has a smaller emphasis on artillery
(1,299) and armoured vehicles
(8,848), but places a greater emphasis
on air support and special forces
operations.
Air power
The US can boast more than 13,000
aircraft of all types to China’s nearly
3,000. The gap is especially great
in helicopters, where the US has
A file picture dated 03 September 2015 shows People’s Liberation Army (PLA) march during a military parade marking the
70th Anniversary of the ‘Victory of Chinese People’s Resistance against Japanese Aggression and World Anti-Fascist War’ at
Tiananmen Square in Beijing, China
REUTERS
235,000
Submarines
61
Principal combat
vessels
74
Patrol and coastal
combatants
199
Mine sweepers
and layers
49
Landing crafts 120
Logistics and
support ships
171
Aircraft 346
Helicopters 103
Aircraft carrier 1
more than 6,000 to China’s 802.
Despite having fewer aircraft, some
of which are under the Chinese
navy, China’s air force has 398,000
personnel to 308,000 for the USAF.
Both air forces are seeking to upgrade
their aircraft, although the
introduction of the fifth generation
F-22 and F-35 jets puts the US several
years ahead. China’s stealth fighters
remain in the prototype stage,
although it has managed to replace
more than half of its fighter fleet
with fourth-generation aircraft.
Navy
China’s navy has many more vessels
(714 to 415), but the US has
more where it counts in terms of
power projection. The US has 10
aircraft carriers to China’s one (although
more are being built), 62
destroyers to China’s 32, and 75
submarines to China’s 68. The US
Navy has 323,000 personnel to China’s
235,000, reflecting the breadth
and depth of a service that operates
worldwide. China’s navy has made
strides in that direction since it established
a permanent overseas
presence by joining in multinational
anti-piracy patrols off Somalia
in 2008, and has begun exercising
in the Western Pacific beyond the
“first island chain” that blocks its
access to open seas.
Defence budget
Billion yuan
1,200
Government
data
800
400
417.8
280.7
519.1
650.3
808.2
2017
1,044*
($151 b)
954
*Reported by
Bloomberg, citing
a finance ministry
information
officer
2006 08 10 12 14 16
Missile command
The PLA has a completely separate
branch, the Rocket Force, to operate
its formidable arsenal of short-,
medium- and long-range missiles,
including those capable of delivering
nuclear weapons. Estimates
say China has a stockpile of approximately
260 nuclear warheads
for delivery by nearly 150 landbased
ballistic missiles, 48 seabased
ballistic missiles as well as
bombers. The US has an estimated
1,740 nuclear warheads deployed
for delivery by the same means.
China’s development of the DF-
21D ballistic missile that is thought
capable of threatening aircraft carriers
has garnered much attention,
although it remains untested in a
conflict.
Overseas presence
China hasn’t fought a conflict
outside its borders since it invaded
Vietnam in 1979 and officially
eschews overseas alliances.
Nonetheless, the PLA has been
expanding abroad, from garrisons
atop man-made islands in
the South China Sea, to UN peacekeeping
operations, joint naval
exercises with Russia in the Mediterranean
and the construction
of its first overseas base in the
Horn of Africa nation of Djibouti.
The US military, in comparison,
currently operates in more than
100 countries, maintains a worldwide
network of alliances and is
engaged in major conflicts in Afghanistan,
Iraq and, increasingly,
Syria. •