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80 Signature of a roadmap on NATO-Ukraine Defense Technical Cooperation, December 16, 2015, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/photos_125979.htm?selectedLocale=uk (accessed February 6, 2016). 81 Petro Poroshenko, “Ukrainian army among five strongest in Europe”, Kyiv, March 23, 2015, http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=466_1427209784 (accessed February 6, 2016). 82 “The National Security Strategy of Ukraine”, approved by the Decree of the President of Ukraine № 287/2015, May 26, 2015, http://zakon4.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/287/2015 (accessed February 7, 2016). 83 Putin agrees with emperor that Russia's only allies are Army and Navy, Interview to TASS, Russian News Agency, April 16, 2015, http://tass.ru/en/russia/789866 (accessed February 7, 2016). 84 The term “near abroad” is used by the Russian Federation to refer to the fourteen Soviet successor states other than Russia. During the Yeltsin era Russia had to cope with the collapse of Communism and the transition to a market economy, and the end of the Cold War and the loss of superpower status. This caused a national identity crisis that engendered key shifts in Russian foreign policy toward what it designates the near abroad. The fourteen republics do not call themselves "near abroad." http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3404100894.html (accessed May 22, 2016). 85 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Putin could attack Baltic states warns former NATO chief, The Telegraph. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11393707/Putin-could-attack-Baltic-states-warnsformer-Nato-chief.html (accessed May 20, 2016). 86 Victor Zaborsky, Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet in Russian-Ukrainian Relations, CSIA Discussion Paper 95-11, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, September 1995. http://belfercenter.hks.harvard.edu/publication/2934/crimea_and_the_black_sea_fleet_in_russian_ukrainian_rel ations.html (accessed May 20, 2016). 87 The Kaliningrad region is surrounded by Lithuania and Poland, two NATO and EU members. 88 Alpo Juntunen, “The Baltic Sea in Russian Strategy,” Diskussion&Debatt Nr4 November/December 2010, 120. http://www.kkrva.se/wp-content/uploads/Artiklar/104/kkrvaht_4_2010_12.pdf (accessed May 20, 2016). 89 Jenna Lifhits, “Putin’s Brain and the Future of Russia. Essay: Alexander Dugin’s “Fourth Political Theory,” The Washington Free Beacon, September 5, 2015. http://freebeacon.com/culture/putins-brain-and-the-future-ofrussia/ (accessed May 22, 2016). 90 David Matsaberidze, “Russia vs. EU/US through Georgia and Ukraine,” The Quarterly Journal, Spring 2015, 81. http://search.proquest.com.usawc.idm.oclc.org/docview/1689618706/fulltext?accountid=4444 (accessed May 22, 2016). 91 Olga Oliker, “Unpacking Russia's New National Security Strategy,” Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS Jan 7 2016). http://csis.org/publication/unpacking-russias-new-national-securitystrategy (accessed May 20, 2016). 92 Stephen Lendman, “Russia’s New National Security Strategy,” Global Research, Jan 1 2016. http://www.globalresearch.ca/russias-new-national-security-strategy/5498735 (accessed May 20, 2016). 93 English translation from the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation (2014) provided by the author. 146
94 Polina Sinovets and Bettina Renz, “Russia’s 2014 Military Doctrine and beyond: threat perceptions, capabilities and ambitions”, Research Paper No.117, July 2015 (NATO Defense College, Rome). http://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=830 (accessed May 20, 2016). 95 Though widely known, the title is unofficial. This is how in early 2013 the media dubbed the ideas presented by Valery Gerasimov, a Russian general and the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia. 96 Donatas Eidintas, “Regional Security. Russia,” Assessment of Threats to National Security, Second Investigation Department Under the Ministry of National Defence of the Republic of Lithuania (Publishing Section of the General Affairs Department of the Ministry of National Defence), Vilnius 2015, 18. 97 Ibid., 18. 98 Author’s translation from Russian language. The chart was published in Russian weekly newspaper “The Military Industrial Complex. The Armed Forces”, www.vpk-news.ru (accessed February 18, 2016). 99 Douglas V. Mastriano. Project 1704. A U.S. Army War College Analysis of Russian Strategy in Eastern Europe, an Appropriate U.S. Response, and the Implications for U.S. Landpower (Carlisle, PA : Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, 2015), 46. 100 Douglas V. Mastriano. Project 1704. A U.S. Army War College Analysis of Russian Strategy in Eastern Europe, an Appropriate U.S. Response, and the Implications for U.S. Landpower, 63. 101 Robert Jervis, “Theories of War in an Era of Leading-Power Peace Presidential Address,” American Political Science Review 96 no. 1 (2002): 1-14 102 Daniel McLaughlin, “Putin's Pride at 'Returning' Crimea to Russia Still Costing the Country Dear,” in Irish Times 2015. 103 Ariel Cohen, and Robert E Hamilton, “The Russian Military and the Georgian War: Lessons and Implications,” in Current Politics and Economics of Russia, Eastern and Central Europe 28 no. 43 (2013); Alexander Lanoszka, “Russian Hybrid Warfare and Extended Deterrence in Eastern Europe,” in International Affairs 92 no. 1 ( 2015) 175- 95. 104 Michael Birnbaum, “Russia Bears Down on Nervous Baltics; In Latvia, Citizens View Events in Ukraine with Growing Unease,” The Ottawa Citizen 2014. 105 Neil Buckley and Roman Olearchyk, “Hunt for Yanukovich as Tymoshenko Pushes for New Coalition,” FT.Com 2014. 106 Steven Woehrel, “Ukraine: Current Issues and U.S. Policy,” Current Politics and Economics of Russia, Eastern and Central Europe 29 no. 2 (2014): 305. 107 Transcript: “Putin Says Russia Will Protect the Rights of Russians Abroad,” The Washington Post 2014 108 Anton Bebler, “The Russian-Ukrainian Conflict Over Crimea,” Teorija in Praksa 52 no. ½ (2014): 196. 109 Michael Weiss and Peter Pomerantsev, “The Menace of Unreality. How the Kremlin Weaponizes Information, Culture and Money,” The Interpreter, November 22, 2014. Accessed January 29, 2016. http://www.interpretermag.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/The_Menace_of_Unreality_Final.pdf. 147
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THE UNITED STATES ARMY WAR COLLEGE
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE (USAWC) CONTR
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The Great Northern War lasted until
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land, sea, cyber and space, and the
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under one supreme leader. It took f
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NATO Image The fighting in 2006 was
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“We know that peace is the condit
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since before the Bolshevik Revoluti
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increase in scale and tempo of Russ
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where the environment was more favo
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y Tokyo, but also a buffer zone to
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PUTIN’S COMPLEX APPLICATION OF RU
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complex. However, it is unlikely th
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presence of Russian troops and infl
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EUROPEAN SECURITY, RUSSIAN EXPANSIO
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Ukraine poses several strategic con
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II. UKRAINE CRISIS: TESTING THE SEC
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Ukrainian Marines with a BTR-80 Arm
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IV. THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE: ITS IM
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to the annexation of Crimea, the UA
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NATO membership is a long-term aspi
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PUTIN’S / RUSSIA’S OBJECTIVES I
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The Russian National Security strat
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territories, which former Tsarist R
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political initiatives, and infuses
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Latvia exists - one that Latvia’s
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BALTIC BASTION!? by Lieutenant Colo
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Land Forces consist of an “Iron W
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or leasing options. And, even if ob
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NATO: UNDERSTANDING AND SUSTAINING
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presence globally. This enables the
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This not only validates the necessi
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Conceptually and practically, in th
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capabilities. 212 This enables info
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multilaterally toward common politi
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proactively addresses the challenge
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NATO’s Cooperative Security pilla
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“essential glue that holds [NATO
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VIII. U.S. and Lithuanian armored f
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esult, NATO implemented immediate a
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the U.S. and Europe. Think tanks in
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X. CAN CYBER TRIGGER ARTICLE 5 OF T
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Russia, if NATO responded quid pro
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DETERRENCE, PROVOCATION, OR ASSURAN
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VJTF is the lead brigade in one of
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NATO leadership - a demonstration o
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defense in the event of armed attac
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ight of individual or collective se
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