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where the environment was more favorable. However, there are concerted steps that
NATO, and specifically, the U.S. can take to prevent either of the dangerous actions
delineated above from coming to fruition.
The armed forces of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania must be capable, survivable,
and maneuverable. This is why acquiring mid- to long-range weapons could make
these nations less appetizing to Moscow. If attacked, these offensive weapon systems
could wreak havoc to Russian command and control nodes and transportation hubs and
disrupt the movement of Russian forces. 7 This would provide the Baltic nations a
credible military capability and a “capacity to deter by denial as well as to deter by
punishment.” 8
Concurrently, the U.S. should help reduce anxieties of our allies by stationing
robust military assets in the region. This would complement USAREUR’s campaign
plan of making “30,000 American Soldiers look like 300,000”. 9 The genius of
USAREUR’s plan is to blend the Active Army with the Army National Guard and Army
Reserve to support the European Theater. 10 Part of this expansion is what should be
called DEFORTIC (Deploy Forces to the Baltics). Using the Return of Forces to
Germany (REFORGER) model from the Cold War, the goal is to have units rapidly fly
soldiers into the region to use American equipment already staged there. This reduces
the arrival time of “over the horizon” forces considerably.
Another key to forward defense of NATO includes permanently stationing
American and NATO forces in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The 2016 NATO Summit
made a historic announcement, with the United Kingdom deploying a battalion to
Estonia, the Canadians deploying a battalion to Latvia, Germany committing a similar
force to Lithuania, and the Americans doing the same for Poland. This is a good start to
deterring a possible Russian invasion of the “eastern flank” NATO nations, but more
should be done. The multinational force deployed in the Baltic region should be
increased to a three-brigade element, one in each nation. Estonia should host an
American led multinational mechanized brigade combat team and Latvia a regional
Baltic Brigade that should include forces from Sweden and Finland (if they are willing to
participate as non-NATO partners). The brigade in Lithuania should be a multi-national
NATO force permanently stationed in the Suwalki Gap. Keeping this gap open is
imperative to prevent any ideas in Moscow that it could easily cut this essential land
route from the rest of NATO.
This three-brigade model for the Baltic nations borrows from the Berlin Brigade
concept from the Cold War. Although the American, British, and French Brigades
stationed in West Berlin could not stop a Soviet invasion, these served as a guarantee
that, should there be an attack, three powerful nations would fight to defend Germany.
Additionally, these brigades would have made the Soviet invasion bloody and difficult to
accomplish. Simply put, the cost / benefit analysis would be too high for Moscow to try
a violent seizure of West Berlin. This is the same end desired for the Baltic nations of
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – making an attack on them too risky for Moscow to
contemplate.
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