"Automotive inSIGHTS 2/2010" (PDF, 3784 KB - Roland Berger

AUTOMOTIVE
Automotive Competence Center Client Magazine No. 02_2010
> Mobility concepts – Forever the "next big thing", or is a breakthrough ahead?
> Interview: Erich Sixt, Chief Executive Officer, Sixt AG
> Automotive 2025 – Challenges and opportunities ahead

Editorial
Dear Reader,
In the latest issue of Automotive inSIGHTS, we take a close
look at the topic of mobility. We analyzed a wide variety of
approaches to developing mobility concepts and share the
results with you. In an exclusive interview with Erich Sixt,
CEO of Sixt AG, we discussed the specifics of innovative
mobility concepts.
This issue also provides you with a preview of our upcoming
study "Automotive industry 2025 – How will the automotive
landscape change?". The study examines megatrends and
their impact on key markets, technologies, business models
and the related HR strategies in the automotive industry.
I wish you inSIGHTful reading and look forward to your
feedback.
Kind regards,
Ralf Kalmbach
Contents
A look around the world
3 Automotive markets in South America
6 Electric Vehicles in China and Japan
Mobility concepts
10 Forever the "next big thing", or is a
breakthrough ahead?
Automotive 2025
14 Challenges and opportunities ahead
18 Books & Studies
Famous cars: Mercedes W113 "Pagoda"
Powertrains and fuels of the future
20 10 theses about passenger and
commercial vehicles
24 Interview: Erich Sixt
Automotive Competence Center
contacts worldwide
Published by:
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH,
Mies-van-der-Rohe-Straße 6, 80807 Munich
Editors-in-chief:
Ralf Kalmbach and Ralf Landmann
Editors:
Dana Rehfuß and Roland Berger Language Service
Layout:
RB_DesignTeam
Printed by:
Girodruck, Hamburg
Circulation:
3,500, published three times a year
No reprints without prior permission of the publisher

A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD
Automotive markets in South America
South America – A forgotten continent rediscovered
For the last decade, little attention was paid to South
American automotive markets as global attention
fixed on the Eastern emerging countries: Russia,
India, and China. But as global focus is shifting again
from restructuring to global growth, South American
markets are stealing back into the spotlight.
South American countries currently account for 6% of
global vehicle production and consumption with over
4 million light passenger vehicles and 200,000 commercial
vehicles. Growth prospects for the next few years
are abundant (Fig. 1).
Significant growth expected in Brazil
On the forefront of South American growth is Brazil,
accounting for more than 75% of the South American
markets. After a long crisis from 1998 to 2004, Brazil
has emerged as a strong and stable economy. 78% of
its 190 million people have already achieved an income
level that allows them to purchase a vehicle.
Over the next decade, both the number of inhabitants and
the income level will continue to rise, reaching 215 million
people by 2020 – and nearly 180 million of those classified
in income groups attractive to the automotive industry.
With these numbers, it is no surprise that total vehicle
consumption and production will reach nearly 6 million
vehicles per year in 2020, cementing Brazil's position
as the 4th largest consumer and 5th largest producer
of vehicles worldwide.
Car manufacturers and suppliers alike are already starting
to prepare for this growth. More than EUR 10 billion is to
be invested by OEMs in creating new or upgrading existing
production capacity as well as launching new vehicles just
by 2013. New vehicle plants are currently being constructed
by Toyota, Hyundai and even the Chinese carmaker
Chery. These investments will increase vehicle production
capacity by 1 million cars, reaching 4.8 million vehicles
in 2013 (Fig. 2). Another EUR 9 billion is being invested by
automotive suppliers to expand their capacity to support
this growth.
News
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A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD
Besides all these investments, Brazil's automotive industry
is expected to become even more diverse. Even though
nearly all established global brands are already present in
Brazil, more than 70% of the passenger vehicle market is
dominated by Volkswagen, FIAT, General Motors and Ford.
The picture is similar in the commercial vehicle segment,
with Volkswagen (now part of MAN) and Mercedes-Benz
accounting for 60% of the total market. Even though these
market leaders will also continue to grow, their market
domination will slowly weaken as competition becomes
more fierce.
Another clear sign of the changing market environment is
the vehicle portfolio. A few years back, most of the vehicle
platforms being produced and sold were outdated. OEMs
are now overhauling and updating their vehicle portfolio.
Supported by new emissions and safety regulations, South
American vehicles of the next decade will be much closer
to the current global vehicle portfolio than ever before.
Argentina – Uncertain market pulled ahead by Brazil
Former South American star Argentina is today largely
overshadowed by its big neighbour Brazil. Years of failed
economic policy and political instability have left
Argentina uncertain of its direction.
Nevertheless, more than 600,000 vehicles will be produced
there in 2010 and production volumes are forecast
to reach more than 900,000 vehicles by 2020.
Two factors will drive this expected growth. Despite
the current economic trouble, the Argentinean economy
continues to thrive, driven by vast agricultural production.
Current inflationary tendencies are supporting the acquisition
of high-value consumer goods, namely: cars.
In addition, demand from Brazil leads to increasing
exports to the neighboring country.
Many major car manufacturers have already invested
heavily in Argentina (including Volkswagen, FIAT, GM, Ford,
PSA, Renault, and Toyota) and are unwilling to cease local
production. Japanese carmaker Honda has decided to
build its newest South American plant in Argentina
(Fig. 3).
However, Argentina is much more than just Brazil's little
brother. While Brazil focuses primarily on production in the
A and B segments, nearly half the output of Argentinean
car plants are C-segment cars, pick-ups, SUVs and vans.
This focus ensures the strategic viability of Argentinean
production.

A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD
Although many suppliers had left Argentina over the past
decade, the past few years have also seen an increasing
amount of investment. Leading global suppliers, including
Gestamp, Magneti Marelli, Mahle, Mann + Hummel and
ZF are currently manufacturing in Argentina.
The "northern" South American markets: Colombia
and Venezuela
When discussing South America, Colombia and Venezuela
are often forgotten. To be sure, Venezuela's current
political situation does nothing to make investments and
growth particularly attractive. As continued nationalization
of foreign invested capital remains under discussion,
most OEMs and suppliers are currently very cautious
when dealing with Venezuela – and rightly so. However, a
change in the current political situation could very quickly
put Venezuela back on the map with a future automotive
production forecast of nearly 200,000 vehicles.
Its neighboring market Colombia is doing much better.
Driven by strong economic growth and increased safety
and stability, the market is ready to emerge as one of
the world's future automotive growth markets. According
to current forecasts, automotive production output will
remain below 200,000 vehicles up through 2020.
However, these forecasts are built on the current industry
structure which is largely characterized by CKD production
with imports from the US and Asia. With continuing growth,
this structure could change rapidly, thus driving production
growth in Colombia far beyond current forecasts.
Don't miss out on South American growth prospects
Many companies, OEMs and suppliers alike, are currently
reviewing their position and strategy regarding South
America. With current capacity utilization of >90% and
profitability above the global average, the South American
countries provide attractive growth potential in a safe
and stable environment.
Even companies already present in South America are
reviewing their setup. Rising production costs and strong
growth rates require new production structures in terms
of location, size and automation. With the right strategy,
companies will be able to participate in one of the most
dynamic markets of the next decade.
Stephan Keese
Principal,
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, São Paulo
stephan_keese@br.rolandberger.com
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A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD
Electric Vehicles in China and Japan
China and Japan are rapidly stepping up their efforts
to popularize EVs. In Japan, major OEMs such as
Mitsubishi and Nissan are taking the lead with actual
EV launches. Aggressive steps are also being taken in
China, which surpassed the US in 2009 to become the
world's largest market. The world of EVs offers a variety
of vehicle characteristics and applications. As we take
a look at the prospects for EV popularization, we will
also identify the key success factors for OEMs in both
the Japanese and Chinese markets.
Before considering EV popularization in Japan, we first
need to understand the characteristics of Japanese
consumers. In short, they are "exacting and conservative".
Their high expectations of products related to safety and
security (such as cars and food) can be clearly understood
by looking at the recall numbers of Japanese companies.
In the past 7 years in China, Guangzhou Toyota had the
highest recall numbers, followed by Guangzhou Honda
and then FAW Toyota. While 7 Japanese OEMs ranked
in the top 10 of recall numbers, Chinese OEMs such as
Tianjin FAW, Chana Automobile, BYD and JAC counted
zero recalls.
The fact that Japanese OEMs (which set their standards
according to Japanese consumers) have high numbers of
recalls shows us how exacting Japanese consumers are –
sometimes too much so.
At the same time, they are hesitant to accept new
products. Hyundai, for example. Even though the model
launched in Japan was reasonably attractive in terms
of price and specs, it was not accepted in the market
and ended up being withdrawn in just 9 years. Japanese
consumers are clearly less interested in emerging players,
and tend to value European/Japanese brands with a long
history of high quality specifications.
As for the EV model lineup in Japan, both the highperforming
EVs offered by existing Japanese OEMs and
mid-performing EVs offered by venture companies and
foreign OEMs are likely to coexist in the early days of
the EV market (Fig. 1). Although it is expected that the
balance will swing toward high-performing EVs, given the
Japanese consumption behavior described above and the
government's position (has not yet decided how to regulate
limited-performance EVs, such as the quadricycle).

A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD
What then would the applications for EVs be? They should
be limited to short-range transportation in urban areas,
as priority is given to safety. Applications may also expand
to include commercial uses such as pickup and delivery
vehicles used on a particular route, private uses like car
sharing and so on.
The potential of expansion largely depends on consumers'
first impressions of EV. One user took a 20-minute drive
through his neighborhood via EV car sharing (Fig. 2). His
conclusion was: "will not use anymore since it offers no
reliability". This was based on his report that: "Driving
range was halved when the heater was turned on. Cannot
trust it any more"; "Driving range was given as 90 km with
a 95% charge, although it should be 160 km at 100%";
"The silence felt so weird. Might get used to it, but still
feel anxious as it is too quiet"; "It took 10 minutes to
fit the charging socket. Cannot do this every day".
In contrast, another user enjoyed a long-distance drive
to the suburbs with a rental car. His impression after
the drive was that "the EV is practical enough". He understood
through actual experience that the driving range –
the biggest initial concern – was not such a problem.
1) The number of pilot cities has already reached 25 and will increase steadily
Everything takes some getting used to. Especially for cars:
people have a certain image from conventional engine
cars, and a new vehicle like an EV might at first create an
uncomfortable impression. But this discomfort does not
last long. Acceptance of EVs depends heavily on whether
drivers can be given enough time behind the wheel to get
used to the new sensation.
Popularizing EVs in Japan depends on the amount of effort
and information on the part of the provider. Careful prepa-
ration, such as developing a vehicle that will be accepted
by consumers who put a premium on security and safety,
will be necessary, as will offering test drives so that
consumers can experience the car's practicality for
themselves.
Meanwhile, EV popularization in China is due largely to
government policy (Fig. 3). Full-fledged popularization of
private cars still has a ways to go, given that the largescale
EV project "10 cities, 1,000 vehicles" 1) still focuses on
public transportation such as buses and taxis. However,
the growth of the Chinese automobile market pushed it
almost to number one in just 10 years. There is still plenty
of room for EVs on the market, and they are likely to gain
popularity rapidly, if the right product is launched.
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A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD
What, then, is the right product for Chinese consumers?
They are described as "rational and practical". Each consumer
makes decisions about what to buy based on what
is really necessary and what is not, given that they can
presumably not purchase everything they want.
As a result, a wider variety of EVs might be accepted in
China compared to Japan. Consumers in large cities such
as Shanghai are likely to value status, thus models with
relatively high specs launched by state-owned, foreign
and joint venture OEMs might garner a large part of the
market. Such models would rank close to ICE vehicles, for
example with a driving range of more than 150 km and
electronic control to counter mechanical failure or driver
error. Though the price range of EUR 20,000 to 30,000 is
high for the normal income level, Chinese consumers tend
to be practical about price.
On the other hand, consumers in the suburbs do not have
all that much purchasing power. EV popularization would
be mainly low-spec EVs, offered by private OEMs or venture
businesses. However, these will not differ dramatically
from EVs offered by foreign or JV OEMs, since they will also
use Li-ion batteries and electronic control units. But the
price of these cars will be the major difference since they
don't have enough of a brand premium.
As for rural cities, EVs with completely different sizes or
driving performance, such as 2- or 3-wheeled EVs, would
be the main market driver. These will be offered by local
SMEs to the tune of thousands of euros, and will provide
mobility essential to daily life. However, the battery is likely
to be acid-lead or Ni-MH and the driving range would be
just tens of kilometers.
The government is also pushing EV development, and a
plan to invest EUR 12 billion over the next 10 years in
EV/PHEV and infrastructure development was recently
announced. Of that, EUR 5 billion will be invested in EVs
and their key components over the next 5 years.
Funded by these government programs, EV launches by
local OEMs are likely to accelerate. New JVs are also
entering the market, joining existing OEMs (government,
foreign, JV, private). Competition is becoming more severe,
not only through increases in the number of vehicles, but
also quality improvement. We are also seeing initiatives
such as SAIC Group and SAIC Motor co-investing in an
independent NEV company (Jieneng) and building a huge
R&D center (Fig. 4). Another example is BYD's joint venture
with Daimler for development. In this respect, the
key success factor is speed.

A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD
The greatest risk is to fall behind in this EV development
race, and it is a mistake to take too much time trying to
attain perfection. Fortunately, trouble after the launch
tends not to matter so much if it is handled quickly, at
least in China. BYD frequently faced major problems after
launching its product, such as breakdowns on the road,
but after a year of continuous improvement, the frequency
of such incidences seems to have dropped dramatically.
Such problems after launch are usually not fatal in China,
as Chinese consumers tend to be practical-minded, finding
that "these things just happen with a new model",
or "it can be fixed if it's broken". These consumer characteristics
need to be incorporated into any successful
market approach.
In short, Japan's exacting consumers require well-developed
products, and China's practical-minded consumers
require quick product launch. There is no right or wrong
here; rather, it is important to recognize these market
characteristics in order to seize business opportunities
in this growing market.
Jun Shen
Partner,
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Shanghai
jun_shen@cn.rolandberger.com
Satoshi Nagashima
Partner,
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Tokyo
satoshi_nagashima@jp.rolandberger.com
Junyi Zhang
Project Manager,
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Shanghai
junyi_zhang@cn.rolandberger.com
Hitoshi Kaise
Project Manager,
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Tokyo
hitoshi_kaise@jp.rolandberger.com
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MOBILITy CONCEpTS
Forever the "next big thing",
or is a breakthrough ahead?
Comprehensive mobility concepts are currently driven
by the dynamics of electromobility, a topic on everyone's
lips – However, we still do not know how profit-
able this business will be over the next 10 years, or
what role the different players will assume there. In the
following we will give a short overview about different
initiatives driven by automotive manufactures but also
by companies from outside the automotive industry. As
outlook we will show, which basic requirements have to
be fulfilled by every market player to launch and operate
mobility concepts in a profitable way.
Current situation
Megatrends such as demographic change or the quest
for sustainability will impact upcoming technological and
social developments 1) . For example, we regularly hear that
the mobility behavior of customers will change, and innovative
mobility concepts are the talk of the town. However,
the extent to which mobility needs will change and how
carmakers, rental agencies and investors can best prepare
themselves for these developments remains unclear.
For quite a few years now, besides mostly locally operated
and non-commercial carsharing schemes, more and more
commercial (pilot) concepts have been emerging in Europe
and the US. Driving this development are companies
beside the established automotive manufacturers (e.g.
Streetcar and Zipcar). Many of the concepts are still in the
test phase and are therefore generally not yet profitable.
The still-small number of users is often not enough to
cover the costs of the vehicle fleets and infrastructure.
German rail company Deutsche Bahn, for example, is
rigorously expanding its mobility products and services 2) .
Traditional car rental agencies are gaining experience here
as well – such as Sixt, which launched its SIXTI Car Club
in Berlin and Munich – in order to tap additional business
potential 3) .
The discussion is gaining further momentum, especially
due to the increasing number of initiatives in electromobility.
High battery prices in particular are leading to
new operator concepts that deviate from the traditional
purchase model. Better Place, a pioneer in this area,

MOBILITy CONCEpTS
clearly sees itself as a mobility provider. Not only does
it provide the vehicles, its services range from supplying
electricity to offering extensive navigation services.
Mobility services, and car-sharing initiatives in particular,
are currently a trend mainly found in Western industrialized
countries. Especially the German market is growing
at a rate second only to the US. Already today, in Germany
alone there are approx. 160,000 people involved in car-
sharing initiatives and have access to roughly 4,700
vehicles. Experts expect these numbers to rise to over
one million people and almost 20,000 vehicles in
Germany by 2016.
If these concepts catch on, this could represent an additional
threat to carmakers' sales. The break-even point for
owning a vehicle is still today at approx. 10,000 km a year,
according to the German federal association CarSharing 4) .
A study carried out by AXA Group shows that already today,
46% of the population drive less than this threshold and
20% even drive less than 5,000 km 5) . Once customer get
past the emotional ties of owning a vehicle and the status
symbol it represents, car sharing may become a viable
option, especially if they live in an urban area. A study
by Frost & Sullivan predicts that mobility concepts could
cause 1 million cars per annum to be sold less in Europe
in the midterm.
However, key questions involving mobility concepts
have not yet been conclusively answered in the industry,
such as:
> How are mobility needs actually changing
in the various markets and consumer groups?
> What impact/risks do these have on/for traditional
business models in the automotive industry?
> What do possible alternative new business models
look like and what new market players will emerge?
> How should automotive manufacturers and service
providers respond?
> What role does electromobility play in the longterm?
Daimler, Peugeot and BMW belong to the first automotive
manufacturers to respond with comprehensive pilot
projects. Besides the positive PR that goes along with
such activities, they are motivated by the specific goal
of generating profits in the medium term.
1) Refer also to "Automotive 2025" in inSIGHTS, 1/2010.
2) All car-sharing activities are consolidated under its new name "Flinkster – Mein Carsharing". This means that the more than 110,000 car-sharing
Deutsche Bahn customers have 4,500 vehicles at their disposal throughout Europe at over 1,900 stations and in more than 580 cities.
3) Sixt is trying to reach "young and price-conscious city dwellers" at over 45 locations in Berlin and Munich. As of January 2010, there were already
approx. 1,600 users with access to 62 vehicles.
4) Information from "Bundesverband CarSharing e.V." Other experts state 7,000 kilometers as the critical limit.
5) AXA Traffic Safety Report 2009.
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MOBILITy CONCEpTS
Examples of their activities:
> With its "car2go" project, which started in Ulm, Germany
and Austin, Texas in 2009, Daimler has considerably
exceeded its own expectations and has already
announced the launch in Hamburg in cooperation with
Europcar in 2011. To broaden this service, Daimler
is now kicking off its new "car2gether" concept,
an online car sharing community
> Peugeot's "mu by peugeot" project was launched in
Paris and later introduced in Berlin. This project takes
the concept a step further and offers a wide range of
mobility services, in addition to just the vehicle. These
services cover the entire model range from bicycles to
convertibles, and Peugeot is planning to quickly include
its "electromobility" program and offer electric vehicles
> BMW launched its "project i": With this megacity
vehicle, the group wants to offer a new kind of solution
for sustainable mobility in urban areas. The concept is
expected to hit the markets in 2013 under a BMW subbrand.
Over the long term, "project i" will be followed
by further refinement across the entire BMW Group,
spurred on by new ideas and projects in production,
development and sales
As manufacturers create their own mobility concepts,
a variety of variables can come into play. Depending on
where companies choose to fall in the spectrum between
pure vehicle manufacturing and being a full-service mobility
provider, the concepts will differ radically from each
other. But all of the ongoing pilot projects have one thing
in common: they allow the established manufacturers to
gather valuable experience whether a strong productionoriented
automotive group could be transformed into
a mobility provider.
The examples show that mobility concepts are becoming
more and more important for the automotive industry.
Whether manufacturers will actually be in a position to
establish the infrastructure and service organization
necessary for offering a really comprehensive portfolio
of mobility services (such as car sharing) remains
to be seen.
Outlook: What needs to be done now?
For a mobility concept to be successful, it needs basically
to be attractive to customers. Only in this way can a provider
secure enough users. Therefore, to be attractive,
a mobility concept must fulfill some basic requirements:

MOBILITy CONCEpTS
> Available: A vehicle may be only a negligible distance
farther away than one's own would be. It must meet
customers' requirements regarding model and features
> Simple: Using the service must be no more complicated
than "get in and turn the key" – but at the same
time, there must be safeguards against misuse
> Affordable: The total cost of ownership advantages
over the traditional car purchase must be clear and
passed on to the customer
> Complete: To set itself apart from the traditional
rental model, the mobility concept should combine
various modes of transportation
> Innovative and different: Especially in the startup
phase, it is important to generate a high degree of
media exposure to reach the minimum number of
users and to stand out from existing car-sharing
offers
Besides an attractive offer and a large number of users,
companies need sufficient infrastructure and the corresponding
management know-how in services for these
mobility concepts to be profitable over the long term.
These requirements are currently best met by car rental
companies. Manufacturer-driven models can be successful
if they rigorously build up their own access to networks
and know-how, or buy it in via collaborative partnerships
or acquisitions, such as the partnership between
Daimler's car2go and Europcar wich has been
establisehed.
Against this backdrop, manufacturers need their own
mobility strategies. Manufactures have to evaluate the
importance of changing mobility behavior in light of the
resulting risks and opportunities, and develop strategies
to respond to these changes.
Carmakers, car rental companies and mobility service
providers such as railway companies have to determine if
comprehensive mobility concepts are the "next big thing"
for them. They need to figure out when a true breakthrough
can be expected and to what extent their existing business
models need to be adapted and expanded. These
important points clearly need to be decided at the upper
management levels.
Ralf H. Landmann
Partner,
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Frankfurt
ralf_landmann@de.rolandberger.com
Sebastian Gundermann
Project Manager,
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Frankfurt
sebastian_gundermann@de.rolandberger.com
Jan-philipp Hasenberg
Senior Consultant,
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Frankfurt
jan-philipp_hasenberg@de.rolandberger.com
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AUTOMOTIVE 2025
Challenges and opportunities ahead
It's 2010: the financial crisis is over and it is a good
time to start thinking about strategic issues again.
By strategic issues, we mean those fifteen years from
now – or, putting it another way, two product lifecycles
from now. What will the automotive landscape be like
in 2025? How will the face of the automotive industry
have changed by then? What megatrends will change
mobility in the upcoming years? And what will make
the winners of the future succeed?
These are the questions we at Roland Berger Strategy
Consultants and Amrop Delta, a leading executive search
company, have been asking. The study began earlier this
year, and so far we have surveyed more than 60 leading
companies, organizations and experts around the world.
Our survey included many carmakers and suppliers, as
well as companies that will be interfacing closely with
the automotive industry, such as utilities, banks, research
institutions and public sector organizations (Fig. 1).
During these interviews, we validated the five megatrends
we had defined in advance, then analyzed how they
affect the automotive industry. These five megatrends
are as follows (Fig. 2):
1. Demographic change
2. Sustainability
3. Behavioral change
4. political change
5. Technological change
Based on the interview findings, market research and
our own analysis, we are defining what these megatrends
mean for the automotive industry. These implications
can be clustered by:
1. Markets, customers, products
2. Business models, value chains, partnerships
3. Staff, business organizations, change
The study is still being conducted and will be released
in late 2010. However, we already have some interesting
findings.
1. Markets, customers, products
Overall, there will be a dramatic shift to Asia, with sales,
production capacity and employment shifting to the
region or being set up there for the first time.

AUTOMOTIVE 2025
Regional trade blocks such as MERCOSUR and ASEAN are
expected to grow. This will mean a shift toward low-cost
locations within those blocks. This trend will be accelerated
by rising transport costs, political regulations and
fluctuating exchange rates. Suppliers will follow the
carmakers down this road.
In the best case scenario, electric vehicles will account
for up to 10% of all new vehicle sales by 2025. Their low
range, heavy weight and high cost will limit their popularity.
Hybrids will be more popular and reach a 40% share.
PHEVs in particular combine the advantages of internal
combustion engines with those of electric powertrains,
without being dependent on the nearest charging point
(which will still not be universal by 2025). Internal combustion
engines will still account for 50% of new car sales.
By 2025, many vehicles will always be online, sending
and receiving information. Connectivity is a key factor
here. Vehicles will communicate with one another and their
environment, although we do not yet know exactly how.
Google believes C2C and C2E communications will be
integrated in cars via smart devices. The benefit of this is
that new developments can quickly become widespread
at low costs.
QUOTE: Dr. Wieland Holfelder, engineering director at
Google: "[….] we believe that by 2025, all vehicles will
be always online, either directly or via equipment passengers
bring with them, via 3G and 4G mobile phone
networks.
In other words, most data for infotainment and IT services
that are not real-time-critical will be shared online by that
time. The future is in Internet-based applications." However,
many other people we spoke to do not think it makes
sense to integrate safety-enhancing C2C and C2E applications
via an interface between a vehicle and a smart
device. OEMs could find themselves liable if clean connections
cannot be made between vehicle and device (if their
iPhone crashes or is hacked into, for example). They prefer
to integrate safety-critical C2C and C2E functionalities at
the factory, which would push back the market launch until
well after 2025. The widespread usage of such functions
would also be delayed.
The idea that cars of the future – connected via intelligent
traffic solutions – will have fewer accidents and that the
weight and cost of active and passive safety features
could therefore be reduced, is not likely to become reality
until well after 2025. Perhaps the concept could be
piloted in one of the new megacities that will have been
created by then – if city planners design a corresponding
strategy (for electric vehicles only) for the city center.
The trend of "demotorization" will first emerge in the big
cities of established industrial nations. People in the new
megacities, almost all of them in Asia, will find their values
changing rapidly. Even today, car ownership rates are fairly
low among the under-30s, and will decrease further by
2025. And the cohort effect means the next age group will
follow these behavioral patterns, even if they do not need
to financially.
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AUTOMOTIVE 2025
Mobility concepts that include car sharing models will
become increasingly widespread in mature markets. Some
people might even decide not to learn to drive at all.
2. Business models, value chains, partnerships
New business models are likely to arise: they will not be
about just selling cars, but about integrating software and
hardware, or different hardware modules. One example
here is car sharing, a business that will have to be taken
seriously by 2025, as the private economy moves in. Given
that one car-sharing vehicle can replace up to forty cars,
OEMS will have to try to integrate this business and generate
other alternative sales sources – before somebody
else does. C2C and C2E communication services
are another example.
The rising proportion of corporate owners (company
cars, car hire firms, municipalities, car-sharing companies)
will make it harder to achieve premium prices (buying
center effect). Margins will be eroded, and there will be
more direct sales. This will tend to weaken retailers' positions.
On the other hand, a positive buying and service
experience will become increasingly important when it
comes to choosing brands and for customer satisfaction.
Customer contact will become increasingly important as
customers' needs become more individualized, and the
retail experience must do more to justify the high prices
of premium and luxury cars.
Resource prices will continue to rise, and prices will fluctuate
even more, driven partly by the increasing share of
renewable energies. Fluctuating prices, in turn, will provide
the basis for new business models (such as domestic
power stations made by green power provider Lichtblick
AG) and product innovations (smart metering-capable
products such as the washing machines presented by
Miele at IFA 2010, a consumer electronics trade fair).
To ensure further investment in sustainable technologies
and cope with increasing price-sensitivity, innovations/
components will not remain exclusive to a brand or
product for long. Sharing components and platforms will
become standard, even between different companies. Cost
pressures will force the industry to keep on consolidating.
3. Staff, business organizations, change
The expanding range of technologies will not lead OEMs
and OESs to increase their R&D departments across the
board by 2025. Many simply do not have the engineers
available.
Countries with aging populations will therefore be looking to
extend the working lives of the workers they have (through
flexible working models that reflect their personal interests and
financial needs). The war for talent will escalate at the same
time: a shortage of engineers and skilled specialists will
inhibit growth, particularly when it comes to MINT (mathematics,
IT, natural sciences and technology) graduates.
Forecasts say Germany alone will have a shortage of 1.8 million
specialists by 2025. As well as trying to keep older workers in
the labor market longer, other approaches, which vary from
country to country, are already being tried. These include numerous
initiatives by private foundations and government bodies
to attract children and young people to MINT subjects.
We will need to encourage immigration more actively in line
with labor market requirements to make up for falling birth
rates. Many countries, such as Canada, Australia and Sweden,
are already working actively to reverse the shortage of engineers
and qualified specialists. Germany and the Netherlands are
examples of countries with negative net migration and insufficient
birth rates. In both countries, in particular, there are fewer
young engineers (25-34) than older ones (55-64).
Employee skills required in the automotive industry will also
develop in line with these trends and new business models:
> Be ready and able to work on a quasi-project
basis in virtual organizations
> Understand regional cultures, and Asian business
culture in particular
> Be able to work in partnerships and understand
what makes partner industries like IT and utility
companies tick
> Be capable of managing partners in integrated
mobility systems
> Overall, people will need a wider range of
general skills
As businesses become increasingly virtual, where and when
people work will matter less, hence less office space will be
required; but the need to coordinate resources (locations, cultural
backgrounds, languages, rules, skill levels) will increase.
Successful global players will move away from centralized
organizations: future business organizational structures will be
"glocal", which means, global at local level. In 2025, successful
businesses will have a number of regional HQs, so they can act
fast locally and adapt to the cultures where their partners, sales
markets and raw materials are located.

AUTOMOTIVE 2025
Trends in the emerging markets and the mature economies
are diverging, along with the implications for OEMs/
OESs. Take VW Mexico, for example: here you find two
separate business organizations in one, with one making
vehicles for the local market and the other for export.
4. General thoughts
Some of our findings do not fall into a specific cluster
but are more generally applicable.
A. First of all, the automotive industry needs to open
up and be able to learn from other industries. From
the IT industry, for one. The increasing amount of electronics
in the cars, the necessary compatibility of cars
with other electronic devices such as smart phones, and
mobility concepts of the future will mean the automotive
and IT industries will need to grow together. But the two
industries could hardly be more different.
> Six-month life cycles on the one hand, versus
four to six years on the other
> The philosophy of letting the customer test beta
version products versus 36 million km testing
the Mercedes E-class before market launch
> Lean hierarchies in which innovations can rise
quickly versus extremely formal hierarchical
business organizations
> Video conferencing as an integral part of daily
business communication routine versus a
"being there" meeting culture
Then there are the utilities, for example, which have also
faced changes in what people want from their products. To
quote Ruth Werhahn, project manager at E-Mobility@EON:
"The automotive industry now is where the utilities were
a few years back, when renewable energy arrived."
B. Size matters: In the automotive business, investing
heavily in R&D is the key to lasting success, which is why
the industry has been consolidating and companies have
been getting larger for years. VW Group, for example, has
been expanding its portfolio of brands.
As markets change, new players will emerge who can
use new business models, new technology and innovation
capability to stay ahead of the competition in the short
to medium term. We can expect this, in particular, at
the interface between OEMs/OESs and utilities and
the IT industry.
In the medium to long term, however, critical size is essential.
We expect things to go much the same way as with the dotcom
companies, in which players of the necessary size have gained
the upper hand in each segment in just fifteen years. And 2025
is fifteen years away, too! The question is whether the OEMs will
let this happen, or whether they will try and integrate promising
new players as they emerge? We can already see partnerships up
and running as a precursor to integration (Tesla with Toyota and
Daimler, BYD with Daimler and VW).
C. The survival of the most flexible: In 2025, successful
businesses will be those that are most flexible in terms of
> The organizational structures they use
> The segments they cover
> How they structure their partnerships, and for how long
> Regional setup
> Business models
As we look at how the five megatrends are affecting the three
clusters, combined with the general observations noted above,
it is perhaps not an overstatement to say that the automotive
industry is entering a new era. Although we have a good idea of
where we are at the present, how these trends and developments
play out over the next decade and a half remains to be seen. As
the work on our study progresses, we will be mining more specific
forecasts and conclusions, and we look forward to sharing our
findings with you.
Wolfgang Bernhart
Partner,
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Stuttgart
wolfgang_bernhart@de.rolandberger.com
Dr. Marcus Hoffmann
Principal,
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Munich
marcus_hoffmann@de.rolandberger.com
philipp Grosse Kleimann
Senior Advisor,
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Frankfurt
philipp_grossekleimann@org.rolandberger.com
17

18
BOOKS & STUDIES
Global automotive supplier study 2010
In line with the recovery of global car production,
revenues in the global automotive supplier industry are
almost back to pre-crisis levels. Suppliers' EBIT margins
will even reach an all-time high of approx. 6% in 2010 –
Profit recovery is particularly strong at European and
North American suppliers.
Rising factor costs and especially severe price pressure
from car makers will lead to shrinking margins in 2011
and beyond. At the same time, the global supplier industry
needs to refinance the substantial amount of around
EUR 130 billion until 2015.
The crisis did not lead to real consolidation of most
of the problematic segments – therefore, a large group
of structurally weak underperformers (approx. 20% of
the global supply base) will be the first to fail when
volumes drop again.
FAMOUS CARS
Mercedes W113 "pagoda"
Truck powertrain 2020 – Mastering the CO 2 -Challenge
A technologies mix, varying according to the region and
vehicle segment, is needed. These are the findings of
the new Roland Berger study "Truck Powertrain 2020 –
Mastering the CO 2 -Challenge".
"The development of new alternative powertrain technologies
is indispensable for reducing dependency on oil and
limiting the greenhouse gases effect," says Norbert Dressler,
Partner with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.
"Only the introduction of hybrid and electric powertrains,
fuel cells and alternative fuels as well as further optimization
of conventional ICE-powertrains and vehicle improvements
will make the required CO 2 reduction possible."
A wide range of potential
powertrain technologies is
available to cope with the
expected government emissions
targets, but not all technologies
will reach the stage
of mass production.
The Mercedes W113 "Pagoda" was introduced in 1963 to replace both the 190 SL and the legendary 300 SL.
The car received its nickname due to the shape of its hardtop. From 1963 to 1971, 49,000 Pagodas were built
initially as 230 SL, then 250 SL and finally 280 SL, quickly gaining popularity especially in the US market.
The Pagoda was the first SL to feature extensive safety measures and broad use of aluminium panels.
The 230 SL (model year 1967 as shown in the picture) features a 150 hp inline 6-cylinder engine with
fuel-injection, originally propelling the car to a top speed of 200 km/h (120 mph). Germany has a total
of 4,000 Pagodas registered today.

BOOKS & STUDIES
VISTA – New growth opportunities for the commercial
vehicle industry
The commercial vehicles industry is undergoing one of the
most fundamental changes in its history. The traditional
focus on the triad (North America, Europe, and Japan) is
vanishing. New markets and production locations have
emerged, especially in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia,
India and China). While the BRIC markets will continue
to play a dominant role, a second wave of emerging
markets is already forming: VISTA (Vietnam, Indonesia,
South Africa, Turkey and Argentina).
"The large, growing VISTA economies will impact global
market shares and become attractive production locations
for OEMs and suppliers alike," states Norbert Dressler,
Partner and commercial vehicle expert at Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants.
The future development and attractiveness of these
second-wave emerging markets is driven by two essential
factors. First, booming and large economies are spurring
the demand for vehicles. Second, low labor costs and
favorable production conditions will make these markets
attractive low-cost production locations for the
next decades.
Interested in the study?
Contact: dana_rehfuss@de.rolandberger.com
19

20
pOWERTRAINS AND FUELS
OF THE FUTURE
10 theses about passenger and
commercial vehicles
Securing the future of mobility is essential for safeguarding
our economic system. Transport and individual
mobility are the backbone of our society and the basis
for economic growth in our globalized world. Mobility is
viable only if it is sustainable. The following 10 theses
set out the key determinants of sustainable powertrains
for passenger and commercial vehicles on our roads.
Thesis 1 – The problem of toxic emissions has largely
been solved
In the 1980s and 1990s, toxic emissions were the main
concern in the transport sector. They have been reduced
significantly in recent years with the implementation of
tougher emission standards. The EU 6 and EPA 10 standards
in Europe and the US will make particulate filters
and NO X aftertreatment systems mandatory. Particulate
emissions will be reduced even further: to 0.005 g/km
in Europe and to 0.012 g/km in NAFTA, or 80-90% of
2003/04 levels. Similarly, NO X emissions will be reduced
by approximately 75% to 0.08-0.12 g/km.
Most technological hurdles have been overcome and
advanced exhaust gas treatment technologies will be
rolled out to emerging markets in the medium term.
Thesis 2 – Reducing carbon emissions remains an
ongoing challenge
Since the IPCC's first reports on global warming and the
Stern Review in early 2008, there has been significant
pressure on CO 2 emissions in the road transport sector.
This sector accounts for over 20% of total carbon emissions.
The long-term CO 2 reduction objectives of the G20
countries (to limit global warming to +2 degrees Celsius
at most) has led to ambitious CO 2 reduction targets for
cars, light duty trucks and, in the future, heavy duty trucks
in all regions (Fig. 1). To meet these targets, a long-term
strategy is required to reduce CO 2 emissions and move
away from oil.

pOWERTRAINS AND FUELS
OF THE FUTURE
Thesis 3 – All options must be utilized to achieve
sustainable mobility
Reducing CO 2 emissions from road transport as quickly
as possible means exploiting all possible technologies
(Fig. 2). It is not enough to focus solely on new cars. With
an average vehicle age of over 8 years in Germany, for
example, a new technology requires almost a decade to
penetrate the market and affect all vehicle segments –
and only if all vehicle segments are upgraded at the same
time. We need technology that reduces CO 2 emissions
both in new vehicles and among the existing fleet on
our roads.
Thesis 4 – Gasoline and diesel engines will continue
to dominate in the medium term
The diesel engine has contributed significantly to reducing
CO 2 emissions since 1999 through the introduction of high
pressure common-rail injection systems. This has reduced
fuel consumption by approximately 30% so far. Gasoline
engines have recently become more efficient thanks to
innovative direct fuel injection systems, with further reduction
potential of 7-12% through lean combustion.
The emergence of electric vehicles is also driving the
race for new innovations in conventional powertrains.
With innovative solutions such as electrified auxiliary
units and improved combustion processes, overall engine
efficiency can be enhanced by 30% by 2020. Conventional
cars will continue to be popular as they require lower
investment, contain mature technology and can use the
existing infrastructure.
Thesis 5 – Gas fuels are experiencing a renaissance
Natural gas as a fuel has a 15-25% advantage over
gasoline in the CO 2 balance. But lower mileage, customer
safety concerns and poor infrastructure are still major
obstacles to the widespread use of natural gas vehicles,
even though natural gas is tax-exempt until 2018 in
Germany. The switch to direct injection in gasoline engines
and monovalent gas engines offer new opportunities
for more efficient use of natural gas as a fuel. Furthermore,
effective ways of liquefying natural gas can reduce
infrastructure costs and increase coverage. Compressed
natural gas (CNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)
have a market share of around 1-2% today, with an
overall vehicle stock of close to 11 million vehicles.
21

22
pOWERTRAINS AND FUELS
OF THE FUTURE
As CNG/LNG vehicles require only minor modifications,
this share is expected to increase, as will the potential
to decrease the carbon emissions of the existing
vehicle fleet.
Thesis 6 – Biofuels will play an increasingly
important role
Rapid and sustainable CO 2 reductions in road transport
can be achieved only if both new vehicles and the entire
existing vehicle fleet are optimized. It does not make
sense for all transport vehicles, such as a 40-ton HDT, to
switch to alternative fuels or powertrains. Low-carbon biodiesel
could be used as a substitute for fossil fuels in this
case. Biofuels can be very effective in reducing emissions,
in particular the second generation of biofuels produced
from renewable sources (biomass-to-liquids), which do
not compete with food production. In Germany, 20% of
total fuel demand could potentially be covered today,
and up to 35% by 2030, by using straw, wood chips
and energy crops.
However, the second generation still requires considerable
development effort if it is to compete with existing fuels.
The European Union has committed to increasing
the share of biofuels to 10% by 2020. The necessary
policy framework has to be established to quickly drive
the market entry and promotion of biofuels. Forecasts
predict worldwide biofuel shares of 6-16% by 2030.
Thesis 7 – The future drives electric
If all the measures to optimize the conventional powertrain
are implemented, fuel consumption will fall by 30% from
today's levels, even with a similar mix of car sizes. But
to reach EU CO 2 emission targets of 95g/km by 2020,
some additional zero-emission vehicles will still be needed
(Fig. 3). Most incumbent OEMs are therefore taking a twopart
approach. They are optimizing the internal combustion
engine, including alternative fuels, and working on
electrified powertrains at the same time. EVs/PHEVs are
expected to achieve a considerable share by 2020: up
to 8% in the Roland Berger high market scenario.

pOWERTRAINS AND FUELS
OF THE FUTURE
Thesis 8 – A renewable energy mix will promote electric
vehicles
CO 2 emissions of EVs/PHEVs depend on the generation
mix. Renewable and nuclear energy provide the most
reduction potential. In order to improve the well-to-wheel
CO 2 effect, an increase in clean electricity generation is
required. A wind-energy powered electric vehicle emits
83% less CO 2 than a gasoline vehicle. Electricity generated
from renewables is expected to increase by 3.6% p.a. and
account for around 23% of global electricity generation
resources by 2020.
Thesis 9 – Hydrogen may be an option in the future
After the hydrogen hype of the 1990s (when it was considered
the only solution for reducing emissions), today
it is merely a niche application. However, fuel cells for
automotive applications are still being developed. Using a
hydrogen fuel cell as an electric energy source also means
electric driving. Fuel cells are complement battery-powered
electric vehicles and will benefit from their development.
The zero-emission hydrogen car could contribute to sustainable
mobility in the medium to long term.
Thesis 10 – All solutions will contribute to sustainable
mobility
In the future, individual road transport must be environmentally
friendly, otherwise it has no chance of survival.
The environment and the economy are closely involved in
bringing efficient new technologies onto the market. Today,
there is no single, ideal road to sustainability. All reasonable
technological options have to be considered both
for the existing fleet and new vehicles. The innovation
race will ensure that the best technologies will ultimately
shape sustainable mobility in the future.
Dr. Thomas Schlick
Partner,
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Frankfurt
thomas_schlick@de.rolandberger.com
23

24
INTERVIEW – ERICH SIXT
Erich Sixt
Chief Executive Officer,
Sixt AG
The car has long been a status symbol. Has this
now changed?
Sixt: No, it hasn't. My perception is that the car has
lost little of its high social status. But what is continually
changing and developing are the ways in which car
ownership is financed.
From a purely economic perspective, private ownership
of a vehicle is rather irrational. Mobility service providers
like Sixt are in a position to buy all the additional services
needed to run a car, from oil to insurance, at far lower prices
than the individual can. This is made possible by our
worldwide fleet size, currently at around 200,000 vehicles,
and our business experience. Our portfolio, from renting
and car-sharing to leasing, offers just the right solution
for every mobility need.
In Western industrialized countries, customers have
become more rational over the years, but only a little. And
in the BRIC countries, especially China, the urge to have
a car of one's own is far stronger. But the fact remains:
Owning a car is not always the smartest option.
Over the last few years we've seen a strong increase in
the number of car-sharing providers. Which do you think
are making the most progress?
Sixt: In Western Europe and the US, the pure car-sharing
providers have one thing in common: They don't earn any
money. To offer a competitive alternative to individual car
ownership, you'd have to make cars available on every
street corner. But user numbers simply aren't high
enough yet. Even Zipcar isn't really profitable, despite
its 250,000 users.

INTERVIEW – ERICH SIXT
Nevertheless, we at Sixt also believe that it's extremely
important to build up experience in car-sharing, such as
with SIXTI Car Club in Berlin and Munich. We can invest
in this with earnings from our other services.
Quite a few automakers, like Daimler and Peugeot,
have launched their own mobility programs in the last
few years. Does this represent a threat to traditional
rental companies like Sixt?
Sixt: I sense a fear among carmakers regarding the
possible impact of electro-mobility, which in my view is
unwarranted. They feel that their value chains could be
threatened. In response, they're looking to complementary
business models and offering mobility solutions. But this
would entail a strong paradigm shift from a product-oriented
to a service-oriented culture, which has not yet proved
manageable. It will probably take many years before
anything emerges that can present any real competition
to today's mobility service providers like Sixt.
However, these projects attract enormous media attention,
and we receive free advertising for something that we can
already offer our customers today on a professional scale.
What are the major competitive advantages that a company
like Sixt has over the manufacturers' programs?
Sixt: From my perspective, two factors have to be in place
for operating successfully: infrastructure and management
know-how.
To offer mobility services, you above all need to have an
infrastructure in close proximity to your customers – ideally
with service stations just around the corner.
In addition, profitable management of mobility services
demands years of experience and great sophistication in
processes and systems. The management skills needed
to run such a business profitably are not something you
can simply buy in – they are built up and continuously
improved over decades.
What's more, business concepts based on independence
from the manufacturer have the advantage of being
neutral. The customer receives professional advice and
the product is tailored to his or her needs. The provider is
not tied to particular brands or suppliers. Our clients can
already choose from a broad product range – including
leasing, car-sharing and daily or monthly renting of all
sorts of models and vehicle types.
Do you think the government should promote mobility
programs?
Sixt: I subscribe to the ideas of Milton Friedman. The state
should leave the markets to regulate themselves. If we
succeed in developing viable ideas that generate profits,
the capital investment will ultimately be found. There
should be no politically motivated funding here.
Who is the typical target customer for innovative
mobility programs?
Sixt: He or she is young, well-educated, feels at home
with technology, and lives in a metropolitan region in
Europe. His or her job and lifestyle require being mobile
in different places. This market will be limited at first,
but it has enormous growth potential.
For this target group, we've developed "Sixt CarAbo",
a subscription-based program. Its launch has proved
very successful. Most of the demand for CarAbo is
coming from frequent travelers like consultants,
business executives and freelancers.
25

26
INTERVIEW – ERICH SIXT
How do you rate the growth opportunities for mobility
programs in markets outside Western Europe and
North America?
Sixt: Western Europe will remain our core market for the
foreseeable future. We had high expectations for expanding
into Eastern Europe, but these have been only partially
fulfilled. Car rental has not yet taken hold in all areas
in that region. As for the world's biggest growth market,
China, it will take many years before a mobility fleet can
be profitably built up. Chinese customers insist on owning
the cars.
In your view, what will the market for mobility services
look like ten years from today? Will we have the onestop
mobility provider that has long been discussed?
Sixt: No one can predict the future, and ten years is a
very long time in view of the present pace of technological
progress. The supply of mobility services will keep on
expanding, but I don't see a revolutionary change here.
Obviously, new services will be offered and ideas like
car-sharing will spread.
However, we won't see the close combination of all different
kinds of mobility offerings within one provider model.
For this, the different modes of transport (car, train and
plane) would have to share competitive know-how such
as customer data, for example. It's a nice vision, but the
economic competition between them is simply too strong.

BENELUX
René Seyger
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rene_seyger@nl.rolandberger.com
CEE
Rupert Petry
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rupert_petry@at.rolandberger.com
CHINA
Jun Shen
Phone +86 (21) 52986677-874
jun_shen@cn.rolandberger.com
CZECH REPUBLIC
Roland Zsilinszky
Phone: +420 ( ) 210219524
roland_zsilinszky@cz.rolandberger.com
FRANCE
Max Blanchet
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max_blanchet@fr.rolandberger.com
Jacques Radé
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jacques_rade@fr.rolandberger.com
GERMANY
Ralf Kalmbach
Phone +49 (89) 9230-8669
ralf_kalmbach@de.rolandberger.com
Ralf Landmann
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Marcus Berret
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marcus_berret@de.rolandberger.com
Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart
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wolfgang_bernhart@de.rolandberger.com
Dr. Thomas Schlick
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thomas_schlick@de.rolandberger.com
Norbert Dressler
Phone: +49 (711) 3275-7420
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IBERIA
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