Security & Conflicts

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GLOBAL INVESTOR FOCUS Security & Conflicts — 32 Brazil 101.7 m tonnes United Arab Emirates (OM) 121.1 m tonnes Nigeria (OM) 4,784 m tonnes Oil Figures in million tonnes The ten biggest oil consumers Canada 100.1 m tonnes Republic of Korea 99.1 m tonnes France 95.2 m tonnes India 115.3 m tonnes Germany 123.2 m tonnes Russian Federation 131.8 m tonnes Japan 250.5 m tonnes China /Hong Kong 308.6 m tonnes US 1 927.3 m tonnes The ten biggest oil producers Norway 146.8 m tonnes Canada 148.0 m tonnes Venezuela 163.5 m tonnes China 172.8 m tonnes Mexico 190.8 m tonnes Iran (OM) 197.9 m tonnes US 327.1 m tonnes Russian Federation 456.8 m tonnes Saudi Arabia (OM) 487.9 m tonnes The ten countries with the largest oil reserves Libya (OM) 5,140 m tonnes Russian Federation 8,163 m tonnes Venezuela (OM) 10,801 m tonnes United Arab Emirates (OM) 12,851 m tonnes Kuwait (OM) 13,717 m tonnes Iraq (OM) 15,430 m tonnes Iran (OM) 17,199 m tonnes Canada 24,071 m tonnes Saudi Arabia (OM) 35,423 m tonnes 1) USA demand incl. Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Guam, Hawaii free zone, 2) excl. 50% neutral zone, (OM) = OPEC-member, Source: Esso, Oeldorado 2005 Gas Figures in billion cubic meters The ten biggest gas consumers US 623.0 bn m 3 Russian Federation 438.9 bn m 3 Great Britain 101.6 bn m 3 Germany 99.7 bn m 3 Canada 93.4 bn m 3 Italy 79.7 bn m 3 Ukraine 74.8 bn m 3 Japan 74.0 bn m 3 Iran (OM) 68.0 bn m 3 Saudi Arabia (OM) 2 59.5 bn m 3 The ten biggest gas producers Russian Federation 625.0 bn m 3 Iran (OM) 26,602 bn m 3 Qatar (OM) 24,753 bn m 3 US 530.3 bn m 3 Canada 184.1 bn m 3 Saudi Arabia (OM) 6,626 bn m 3 Great Britain 100.5 bn m 3 United Arab Emirates (OM) 6,002 bn m 3 Netherlands 83.7 bn m 3 US 5,350 bn m 3 Iran (OM) 83.5 bn m 3 Nigeria (OM) 4,981 bn m 3 Norway 80.6 bn m 3 Algeria (OM) 4,528 bn m 3 Algeria (OM) 80.1 bn m 3 Venezuela (OM) 4,188 bn m 3 Indonesia 71.6 bn m 3 Iraq (OM) 3,113 bn m 3 Russian Federation 47,544 bn m 3 The ten countries with the largest gas reserves Middle East dominates a mismatched world There is a stark imbalance between the world’s major owners of natural energy resources and the main consumers. The Asian economies are the most obvious examples. Japan is the third largest consumer of oil, at 250.5 million tonnes per year, but does not figure as an oil or gas producer of any note. On the other side, the Middle East is the richest region for stocks. Five of the six biggest holders of crude reserves, including Iran and Iraq, are situated here.
GLOBAL INVESTOR FOCUS Security & Conflicts — 33 beginning to contract and the demand for them showing no signs of diminishing, the worldwide competition for access to critical materials is growing more fierce, as is the risk that such competition will erupt in armed violence. Several factors distinguish the current epoch from those of the past. One of these is globalization, which is facilitating the spread of industrialization to more and more parts of the world and fueling the worldwide demand for raw materials. Of particular significance is the rapid industrialization of China, India, South Korea, and the Southeast Asian “tigers” – a process that inevitably produces a huge increase in demand for energy, minerals, timber, and other basic commodities. The annual demand for energy in developing Asia, for example, is expected to jump from 78 quadrillion British Thermal Units (BTUs) in 2002 to 224 quadrillion BTUs in 2020, an increase of 187%. China alone is expected to see its energy demand climb by 230%, from 42 to 139 quadrillion BTUs. To provide all of this additional energy, these countries will have to produce or import vast quantities of energy. Population boom stretches resources The global demand for resources is also being driven by an unprecedented increase in human population and per capita income. The world’s population is expected to grow from 6.5 billion people today to 8.2 billion in 2030, an increase of 2 billion people. The world’s combined GDP is projected to expand by an even bigger percentage over this period, from an estimated USD 49 trillion to USD 140 trillion (in constant prices at purchasing power of the year 2000). All of these additional humans will have to be fed, clothed, housed, and otherwise provided with vital materials – a gargantuan task that will impose enormous pressures on the planet’s carrying capacity. The fact that so many of the world’s peoples are experiencing an increase in personal income is also placing enormous pressure on global resource stocks. To give just one example: with the world’s population of automobiles projected to double over the next few decades, the global demand for motor fuel, steel, aluminum, chromium, rubber, and related materials will experience enormous growth. With all this going on, many of the world’s stocks of basic materials are being depleted at unsustainable rates, producing a growing risk of shortages and scarcity. The demand for fresh water, for example, now exceeds the available supply in many parts of the world, a condition that can only grow worse as population expands, industrialization reaches more countries, and greater reliance is placed on irrigation to grow crops. The UN predicts that as many as 3 billion people will be living in water-scarce areas by the middle of this century, generating increased competition for access to water supplies. Throughout history, such competition has been a major source of conflict, and there is every reason to believe that this will prove to be the case in the future. Arable land and timber will also become more scarce, producing a similar risk of conflict. It is scarcity of oil and natural gas, however, that is most likely to generate armed conflict in the decades to come. This is so because these two materials provide approximately two-thirds of the world’s total energy supply and are absolutely essential for the effective functioning of the world’s highly industrialized, transportation-dependent economy. Without adequate oil and gas, entire industries – automobile manufacturing, petrochemicals, airlines, highway construction, tourism, and mechanized agriculture – could grind to a halt. Oil is also essential for the conduct of modern mechanized warfare. For all of these reasons, oil has long been viewed by several countries as a “strategic” commodity: something they are prepared to fight over. At present, there appears to be sufficient oil and gas buried in the earth to satisfy immediate world requirements. Many existing fields still harbor large reserves, and these will remain accessible for global use in the years ahead. But there are deeply worrying signs on the horizon: many older fields, including some major oil reservoirs in the US, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia, are declining at a faster rate than anticipated, while the rate of discovery of new fields has been dropping steadily since the 1970s. Furthermore, many of the newest fields to be discovered lie in deep offshore areas where storms are frequent (such as the hurricane-prone waters of the Gulf of Mexico) or in areas exposed to recurring disorder and strife. Unless many large, easy-to-develop fields are located soon, we will eventually reach the limits of existing reservoirs, and the global supply of oil and gas will begin to contract. When, exactly, such a contraction might commence is a matter of considerable debate. Some experts believe that it could be in 2010 or so, others much later. But few doubt that such a crisis is forthcoming. “One thing is clear: the era of easy oil is over,” the chief executive of Chevron, David O’Reilly, declared in a widely placed advertisement. “Demand is soaring like never before...At the same time, many of the world’s oil and gas fields are maturing. And new energy discoveries are mainly occurring in places where resources are difficult to extract, physically, economically, and even politically. When growing demand meets tighter supplies, the result is more competition for the same resources.” Increased competition of this sort will result in increased prices, as is already evident across the globe. But it is also likely to result in increased military action, especially where competing nations or groups are struggling for control over oil and gas reservoirs or where internal disorder threatens the free flow of petroleum. Resource competition spreads In the East China Sea, for example, China and Japan have nearly come to blows on several occasions over their conflicting claims to an undersea natural gas field. At present, the maritime boundary between these two countries is undetermined, and both have laid claim to the body of water that sits atop the Xihu Trough, an underwater depression that is believed to house a number of large gas fields. Several rounds of negotiation have been held to resolve this matter, but neither side has shown any inclination to compromise, and both have sent planes and warships into the disputed area in a mutual dance of intimidation. With relations between Beijing and Tokyo unusually tense at this time, there is a very real risk that this dance could escalate into something much more serious. A similar dispute pits Azerbaijan against Iran for control over contested oil and gas fields in the southern Caspian Sea. While the maritime borders in the north Caucasus have now been determined, no such boundaries have been established in the south. Despite this, Azerbaijan has laid claim to a number of oil and gas fields in waters off its southern coastline, claims that have been repudiated by Iran. In 2001, an Iranian gunboat entered the area claimed by Azerbaijan and harassed foreign oil survey ships operating in the area. Since then, Azerbaijan has turned to the US for help and, with Washington’s assistance, is constructing a small navy to deter and repel future intrusions of this sort. Iran is also involved in a dispute with the United Arab Emirates over undersea oil and gas fields that lie between the two countries in the eastern Persian Gulf. Any of these disputes, and others like
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Security & Conflicts

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