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Credit Management magazine December 2017

The CICM magazine for consumer and commercial credit professionals

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OPINION<br />

BLACK OR WHITE<br />

The economy could be heading for another 90s<br />

style blip, but it’s not cut and dried.<br />

AUTHOR – Kevin Reed is a freelance journalist and former editor of both Accountancy Age and Financial Director.<br />

Kevin Reed<br />

There certainly isn’t a<br />

clear-cut direction for<br />

the future. Or, as Michael<br />

Jackson sang in 1991, it’s<br />

not Black or White.<br />

ARE we finally heading<br />

back to the future? There<br />

are certainly some in the<br />

credit industry who have<br />

been pining for the days of<br />

shellsuits and some bad,<br />

bad music. That’s right folks, 1991 might be<br />

just around the corner.<br />

First kicking off in mid-1990s, the<br />

UK recession ran through to Q3 1991,<br />

with factors including high interest<br />

rates, high inflation and subsequently<br />

negative equity on properties (and soaring<br />

mortgage repayments) leading to personal<br />

bankruptcies.<br />

Overstretched businesses collapsed<br />

at a rate of knots during the period,<br />

and it all kept the insolvency profession<br />

(‘professionalised’ and role as ‘rescuer’<br />

clarified post-1986 Insolvency Act)<br />

extremely busy.<br />

So, where are we now? I’m certainly no<br />

economist (as seems to be the case with<br />

many who claim to be an economist), but<br />

let’s consider some of the factors that may<br />

impact on IPs’ future ‘prosperity’.<br />

Interest rates have finally ticked up –<br />

but we’re not exactly threatening double<br />

figures here. Then again, house prices,<br />

particularly in the south-east and London,<br />

are still piping hot. Salaries have not kept<br />

pace with inflation, and I still get that gut<br />

feeling there’s a ‘spend in haste, repent at<br />

leisure’ attitude among many of our good<br />

citizens.<br />

And then there’s the banks. Rightly<br />

vilified for atrocious risk management<br />

and governance leading up to and beyond<br />

the credit crisis, they certainly talk the<br />

game around more vigorously testing the<br />

financial situation of people looking to take<br />

out a credit card or take on a mortgage.<br />

However, politically and reputationally, one<br />

wonders if they’d want to be seen managing<br />

large portfolios of properties falling into<br />

their hands from distressed debtors.<br />

Of course, on the corporate side many<br />

advisers have bemoaned the availability of<br />

finance for their clients from the traditional<br />

ports of call. Yet many businesses have<br />

secured long-term financing, while<br />

insolvency practitioners are now in the<br />

10th year of waiting for a slew of zombie<br />

businesses – those paying off interest and<br />

loans, but not expanding or progressing - to<br />

keel over. Clearly, a 25 basis-point increase<br />

isn’t going to push them into their graves.<br />

There businesses are other factors that<br />

could see some business perform better in<br />

the short-term, such as sterling’s weakness<br />

and therefore better exporting conditions.<br />

But recent stats from the National Institute<br />

of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)<br />

show just a gentle pickup in exports, and<br />

imports growing. And that’s all one Brexit<br />

away from seeing trade barriers that will<br />

dwarf sterling’s weakness.<br />

I then look at the hardy, never-saydie<br />

Brits that are setting up their own<br />

businesses, particularly using e-commerce<br />

and e-marketing to great effect and utilising<br />

new funding platforms and models – but<br />

we have a Government that seems set on<br />

hitting the self-employed and business<br />

owners with tax rules and regulation that<br />

will likely stifle, rather encourage.<br />

And that stubborn inflation figure is<br />

still there, in the background, making the<br />

pennies go less far than they did the day<br />

before.<br />

It’s difficult to not see more insolvencies,<br />

personal or corporate, around the corner.<br />

But it’s equally difficult to make a case that<br />

it will lead to a boomtime for the insolvency<br />

profession.<br />

There certainly isn’t a clear-cut direction<br />

for the future. Or, as Michael Jackson sang<br />

in 1991, it’s not Black or White.<br />

The Recognised Standard / www.cicm.com / <strong>December</strong> <strong>2017</strong> / PAGE 51

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