BusinessDay 06 Mar 2018
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Tuesday <strong>06</strong> <strong>Mar</strong>ch <strong>2018</strong><br />
10 BUSINESS DAY<br />
C002D5556<br />
COMMENT<br />
MAZI SAM OHUABUNWA OFR<br />
sam@starteamconsult.com<br />
Last week the Independent<br />
National Electoral Commission<br />
(INEC) released<br />
what looked like the periodic<br />
table which we used<br />
in the O-level Chemistry class to<br />
determine the valency of metallic<br />
elements, announcing the dates of<br />
elections in Nigeria up to 2043 or so.<br />
Some people saw this as a strategic<br />
and audacious move of projecting<br />
the future. Indeed INEC said they<br />
did this to bring some certainty to<br />
election dates in Nigeria. Many other<br />
commentators have mocked INEC<br />
for ‘forming work’, that is pretending<br />
to be working when actually there is<br />
no work being done. They think that<br />
INEC is leaving the substance and<br />
pursuing the shadow. Some think all<br />
this was INEC’s response to the “effrontery”<br />
of the National Assembly<br />
in trying to change the sequence of<br />
elections in Nigeria. The executive<br />
is decidedly unhappy about this and<br />
it looks INEC has gone on overdrive<br />
to project the president’s desire. But<br />
there is little INEC can do, as it is<br />
their lot to implement the laws made<br />
by the National Assembly and not to<br />
make laws themselves. Some believe<br />
that INEC should spend its time and<br />
budget in tackling existing problems<br />
like a dispassionate and truthful<br />
STRATEGY & POLICY<br />
MA JOHNSON<br />
Johnson is a marine project management<br />
consultant and Chartered Engineer. He is<br />
a Fellow of the Institute of <strong>Mar</strong>ine Engineering,<br />
Science and Technology, UK.<br />
Nineteen years after the country’s<br />
transition to civil rule,<br />
attempt to consolidate democracy<br />
and whatever gains it has<br />
provided to the citizenry is still faced<br />
with numerous challenges. The challenges<br />
include conduct of free and<br />
fair elections, creating and strengthening<br />
democratic culture, institutions<br />
and practices. The infrastructural<br />
inadequacies, deteriorating<br />
standards of public educational and<br />
health services, high rate of youth<br />
unemployment, widespread indices<br />
of violent crimes, and continuing<br />
disconnect between the citizens<br />
and the government pose serious<br />
challenges to the consolidation of<br />
democracy in Nigeria. The journey<br />
has been very tortuous. Nigerians<br />
were in dare need of politicians that<br />
would bring positive change to their<br />
comment is free<br />
Send 800word comments to comment@businessdayonline.com<br />
INEC: Underestimating the challenges to the 2019<br />
investigation of the widely reported<br />
underage voting in parts of the North<br />
especially Kano during the 2015<br />
elections and continued registration<br />
of the under-aged currently going on<br />
in those parts of Nigeria. This could<br />
have marred the 2015 elections and<br />
caused post election crisis were it not<br />
for the single minded determination<br />
of Goodluck Jonathan to avoid any<br />
bloodshed. In 2019, the combatants<br />
may not be as peace- seeking<br />
or in the language of Charley boy as<br />
“mumu” like Jonathan.<br />
It is further felt that if 2015 elections<br />
were expected to test Nigeria’s<br />
unity following several prophesies<br />
and theories, we do not need any<br />
other prophet to tell us that 2019 may<br />
be the 2015 that was prophesied.<br />
This is because at no time in recent<br />
history did we approach an election<br />
season with so much anomie in the<br />
land. Nigeria is currently so disunited<br />
and dysfunctional that anything<br />
worse than this will require a<br />
new definition of disunity. In 2015,<br />
we had some internally displaced<br />
persons camps (IDPs) in the North<br />
East only but as we approach 2019<br />
we have IDP camps in the North<br />
East (courtesy Boko Haram), North<br />
West (courtesy Zamfara Bandits),<br />
North Central (courtesy Militant<br />
Fulani Herdsmen ), South East<br />
(courtesy militant Fulani Herdsmen<br />
and kidnappers), South West<br />
(courtesy militant Fulani herdsmen<br />
and Badoo cultists), South South<br />
(courtesy militant Fulani herdsmen,<br />
kidnappers and militant oil<br />
thieves). How will INEC handle<br />
this logistics nightmare should<br />
occupy INEC instead of acting as<br />
Nostradamus- the man who saw the<br />
future. There is so much uncertainty<br />
regarding 2019 elections that it may<br />
...there is so much work<br />
INEC needs to occupy itself<br />
with now and should stop<br />
amusing us with setting<br />
date for 2045 election<br />
when there is so much<br />
uncertainty about 2019<br />
not be worth my time thinking of what<br />
will happen in 2023, not to talk of 2043.<br />
First, many nationalities in Nigeria<br />
have taken positions regarding the<br />
future of Nigeria. Many still believe<br />
that there is some benefit in Nigeria<br />
remaining one big country with many<br />
nationalities. But some believe that<br />
for that to happen, the country has<br />
to be restructured in order to cure it<br />
of the chronic instability, corruption,<br />
profligacy and dysfunction that has<br />
brought it almost to its knees since<br />
the military usurped power in 1966<br />
and dislocated the arrangement made<br />
by the founders of modern Nigeria<br />
for a viable, thriving and mutually<br />
beneficial federation. Some other nationalities<br />
especially in the core North<br />
feel that there is nothing wrong with<br />
Nigeria or its structure and will like<br />
to see Nigeria wobble from one crisis<br />
to another and continue to shed innocent<br />
blood daily perhaps to satisfy<br />
thirsty deities foistered on this country<br />
by the workers of iniquity. And then<br />
there are some other nationalities<br />
that feel that Nigeria is a lost cause.<br />
They look at the contradictions-ethnic<br />
bigotry, religious intolerance, manifest<br />
injustice, entrenched greed and the ‘we<br />
must rule or baboons and monkey be<br />
soaked in their blood’ mentality and<br />
Why is Nigeria so unlucky?<br />
lives. So, in 2015, they elected politicians<br />
who promised to revamp the<br />
nation’s economy, improve security<br />
and wipe out corruption.<br />
Corruption is still rearing its ugly<br />
head despite the onslaught provided<br />
by the federal government to wipe<br />
it out. The states and local governments<br />
are spectators in the anti-corruption<br />
warfare. The Transparency<br />
International (TI) report for 2017<br />
ranked Nigeria 146 out of 180 countries<br />
sampled in 2017. As expected<br />
of any critical issue, the presidency<br />
dismissed the report saying “it is a<br />
“fiction” sponsored by critics of the<br />
federal government.” Hmm!<br />
The presidency did not know that<br />
other tiers of government- legislature<br />
and judiciary are not involved<br />
in the fight against corruption. But<br />
the Vice President (VP), Yemi Oshibajo,<br />
welcomed the report, saying,<br />
it is a catalyst for Nigeria to do better<br />
in its fight against corruption rather<br />
than a setback. Thank goodness, the<br />
Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN)<br />
saved Nigeria from embarrassment.<br />
He knew that the report of TI<br />
on corruption will further dent the<br />
image of Nigeria in the international<br />
community if no one in the government<br />
accepted it. That Nigeria is still<br />
a corrupt nation is a truth which is<br />
difficult and bitter to swallow. There<br />
is no doubt that the anti-corruption<br />
policy of the federal government is<br />
necessary given the escalating level<br />
of corruption in the public space. It is<br />
selective prosecutions that compelled<br />
Nigerians to lose faith in the credibility<br />
of the anti-corruption policy. Whatever<br />
views the federal government holds, the<br />
report rendered by the Transparency International<br />
is not too far from the truth.<br />
Then came the mother of all reports<br />
which is the latest release by the International<br />
Monetary Fund (IMF). The<br />
report simply says “more Nigerians are<br />
getting poorer.” It was shocking because<br />
the economy is just out of recession with<br />
slowly reducing double-digit inflation.<br />
Though, inflation is reducing slowly<br />
but the minimum wage is still N18000<br />
(US$50/month) in a nation that has<br />
devalued its local currency. Some state<br />
governments are owing their workers arrears<br />
of salaries, while many pensioners<br />
are living on hope.<br />
Although, Mr President has good<br />
intentions to reduce poverty level in<br />
Nigeria, but good intentions alone will<br />
not reduce poverty, sound economic<br />
policies do. Instead of arguing, the federal<br />
government should examine its economic<br />
policies and reappraise them to<br />
address challenges reflected in the IMF<br />
report. The federal government should<br />
not wait for 180 million people to be<br />
poor before accepting that Nigerians are<br />
getting poorer. After all, unemployment<br />
and underemployment are increasing.<br />
Anyway, the Bretton Wood institution<br />
advised that with good economic<br />
policies, the economy will muddle<br />
through in the medium term despite<br />
rise in the price of crude oil in the international<br />
market. The risks to growth<br />
were however highlighted to include<br />
delays in implementing policies and<br />
they conclude that the only lasting<br />
solution is to let the nationalities go<br />
their separate ways in peace. To this<br />
last group belongs Nnamdi Kanu of<br />
IPOB and many from his nationality.<br />
Today, I hear that many other nationalities<br />
especially in south-south and<br />
the middle belt share this view point,<br />
having tasted a little of what the South<br />
East has suffered in the Nigerian federation<br />
for years.<br />
So it is clear that we are going into<br />
2019 a fractured country with different<br />
nationalities holding different views<br />
about the future. While some are willing<br />
to have discussions on what to do,<br />
first to avoid any cataclysm that may<br />
be imminent and second on how to<br />
rearrange the relationships to assure<br />
future prosperity of all stakeholders<br />
in the federation, some have already<br />
become impatient that they are<br />
already taking it out on the rest of<br />
us by different acts of violence and<br />
malfeasance. This is evident in the<br />
current state of affairs in Nigeria<br />
where it is as if we are in a state of<br />
war, one new killing field every day<br />
and yet some people think all is well.<br />
I think INEC should begin to<br />
create scenarios as to what will<br />
happen if the election does not<br />
hold in 2019. That is a possibility.<br />
Some nationalities have insisted<br />
that there will be no elections in<br />
2019 if the restructuring of Nigeria<br />
does not happen, resulting in a new<br />
constitution before elections. They<br />
opine that the cosmetic piecemeal<br />
amendments of the 1999 Constitution<br />
being undertaken by the legislature<br />
is only begging the issue and<br />
only a brand new constitution written<br />
by the true representatives of the federating<br />
nationalities will satisfy their<br />
demand. The government certainly<br />
does not take that kind of threat lightly<br />
reforms ahead of 2019 elections, fall<br />
in oil prices which could see capital<br />
flows reversed, and security challenges<br />
within the country.<br />
Security challenges in Nigeria is<br />
overwhelming as most newspapers<br />
reported stories on the abduction of<br />
schoolgirls in Dapchi, Yobe State on<br />
22 February <strong>2018</strong>. The exact number<br />
of the victims abducted from the<br />
Government Science and Technical<br />
College, Dapchi, is not known as there<br />
are conflicting figures from the State<br />
Government and security agencies<br />
operating in Yobe State. In a situation<br />
like this, Nigerians expects the truth<br />
from those agencies saddled with<br />
the responsibility of providing security<br />
to the citizens. Sadly, the truth is<br />
always in short supply by appointed<br />
and elected public officials in times<br />
of calamity. Instead of accepting<br />
responsibility, government officials<br />
point accusing fingers at each other.<br />
This is a big shame to Nigeria because<br />
the incident gives an impression<br />
that the nation’s security system is in<br />
trouble. Although, information on the<br />
attack is scanty and hazy, it is suggestive<br />
that the attack was well planned.<br />
Some prominent federal lawmakers<br />
are blaming both the Nigerian Army<br />
and the Nigeria Police Force for failing<br />
to perform their duties in Dapchi. If<br />
our security agencies had learnt lessons<br />
from the abduction of 276 Chibok<br />
girls, it is most likely that this incident<br />
wouldn’t have occurred.<br />
Widely reported on the pages<br />
of most newspapers are conflicting<br />
and would rather prepare the military<br />
to undertake an operation ‘Elephant<br />
gyration’ to subdue any such nationalities.<br />
But my point is that there is<br />
so much real work INEC should be<br />
doing, instead of just ‘forming’ work.<br />
Over the weekend, I heard that<br />
a particular political party was doing<br />
‘empowerment’ programs in my<br />
town and they were cajoling young<br />
men and women to come and collect<br />
money to start businesses or<br />
help themselves on the condition<br />
that they will drop their Permanent<br />
Voter’s Cards. Then on the election<br />
day, they would use the PVCs to vote<br />
for these ‘empowered’ young men<br />
and women. That is part of their desperation<br />
strategy to come to power in<br />
2019. I do not know if INEC knows<br />
about this unique winning strategy<br />
by this particular political party?<br />
There must be other such devious<br />
strategies being devised by other<br />
political parties to win the elections<br />
in 2019. How does INEC prepare to<br />
counter these moves? How are they<br />
preparing to stay ahead of all the<br />
party efforts to bend or break the<br />
rules? Now INEC has registered so<br />
many new parties and many more<br />
are angling for registration. By 2019,<br />
we may have 200 parties on the ballot.<br />
How will INEC deal with all these new<br />
parties including Obasanjo’s coalition<br />
for Nigeria? These are serious tasks<br />
for INEC and my main point worth<br />
repeating is that there is so much work<br />
INEC needs to occupy itself with now<br />
and should stop amusing us with setting<br />
date for 2045 election when there<br />
is so much uncertainty about 2019.<br />
Send reactions to:<br />
comment@businessdayonline.com<br />
reports that have characterized the<br />
abduction. Those whose main responsibility<br />
it is to inform Nigerians are<br />
neck deep into a blame game. Rather<br />
than seek a solution to an unfortunate<br />
incidence, elected and appointed<br />
government officials point accusing<br />
fingers at each other. That is the trend<br />
in the government. Frankly, this ugly<br />
incident does not portray Nigeria in<br />
good light. The federal government<br />
must unravel the mystery behind this<br />
heinous crime. When this writer x-<br />
rays the above man-made challenges<br />
in a fragile economy, the question that<br />
agitates his mind is: Why is Nigeria so<br />
unlucky?<br />
In order to overcome aforementioned<br />
challenges, there is need to<br />
have a securenation in which consolidation<br />
of democratic culture can be<br />
strengthened. Additionally, security<br />
is required for economic activities<br />
that will aid the development of the<br />
economic, social and political conditions<br />
of communities, group, and<br />
individuals in the nation.<br />
The security agencies have a very<br />
crucial role to play in guaranteeing the<br />
requisite safe and secure environment<br />
for the consolidation of democracy and<br />
sustainable economic development in<br />
Nigeria. I hereby solemnly advise those<br />
running the government that democracy<br />
in Nigeria must not fail!<br />
Send reactions to:<br />
comment@businessdayonline.