JCS_MasterDocument_FIN_27.03.18

2.27 The overall trend for the JCS area is towards
an ageing population. This reflects a national
trend but is more pronounced in this area due to
migration of pensioners from other parts of the
country. This raises challenges in the provision of
appropriate health and transport services,
combined with a shrinking workforce as well as
a reduction in average household size.Across
the JCS area, evidence has shown that there is
currently a net outflow of young people (aged
15-29 years), which is weakening the potential
of the local workforce and making it a less
attractive area for businesses. Against this trend,
Gloucester City is expected to see a significant
rise in the young and working-age population.
To maintain a thriving economy and remain
an attractive area for business, the number of
dwellings and jobs needs to be more closely
aligned.
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2.29
Key challenges
The JCS addresses the needs of an increasing
elderly population, coupled with natural
growth in the existing population and shrinking
household sizes (due to more single households,
more lone parents and smaller families). This
may mean that some young people move away
or live with their parents into their 30s, while
older people remain in unsuitable housing which
does not meet their needs. Hence, the housing
evidence has identified a need of around
1,759 new homes per year which needs to be
accommodated in the JCS area over the next
20 years to provide adequate housing for its
residents.
For young people the key issue in the area is
not just the availability of housing, but also the
price of housing. In the JCS area, the house price
to earnings ratio is around 6:1 for people aged
under 40 in 2011 (meaning the average house
price is six times the average annual income of
people under 40). There has been insufficient
delivery of housing in recent years to lower this
ratio. Whilst over 8,266 new homes have been
delivered in the JCS area between 2006 and
2011, only 2,015 of these were affordable. That
equates to about 400 new affordable homes per
year. Housing need in both the rural and urban
areas remains a pressing issue.
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The largest employment sector is public
administration, with other important sectors
being tourism and finance. Diversifying the
employment base to increase the number of
knowledge-based jobs remains a key challenge
for the area. Unemployment levels have been
rising in the county since May 2008 with
widespread impacts on almost all sections of
the local economy. Since the 2007 recession,
vacancy rates of shops have increased in both
larger and smaller centres. Furthermore, there
are now high numbers of young people aged 16-
18 years who are not in education, training
or employment. All of this indicates a need for
more employment and training opportunities
so that the JCS area will remain a competitive
location, providing companies with the
opportunity to move or expand within the
area and supporting young people entering
the workforce.
While the JCS area is considered to be relatively
affluent, this is not uniform across the area.
There are pockets of deprivation including eight
of the most deprived wards in England, which
suffer from low incomes, unemployment, poor
health and housing, low educational attainment,
and crime and disorder. Tackling levels of
deprivation through measures such as more
frequent public transport and better community
and health facilities remains a pressing issue.
Gloucester and Cheltenham are the main
economic hubs for Gloucestershire and draw in
a significant number of commuters. This places a
considerable strain on the central areas in terms
of traffic congestion and pollution. Increasing
self-containment remains a key challenge for the
area. Offering alternative modes of transport
is easier to achieve in the major urban areas
which are compact and thus offer potential for
improvements to public transport, local cycling
and pedestrian links. However, in the rural areas,
maintaining and improving public transport is
more challenging.
A further key challenge in meeting the
objectively assessed need for development in
the JCS area is the degree to which land within
the JCS area is significantly constrained by flood
plain, areas of Green Belt and the Cotswolds
Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB).
The JCS authorities have reviewed the capacities
of their urban areas, i.e. those sites which
already have planning permission or which are
part of planned regeneration, and found they
can support just over 60% of the identified need.
Gloucester, Cheltenham and Tewkesbury Joint Core Strategy 2011-2031
Adopted December 2017
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