FLEISCHWIRTSCHAFT international 4/2017

..........................................
16
Fleischwirtschaft international 4_2017
Pork
Leading countries NIC and OIC
Tab. 5: The six leading countries in pig meat production in the group of the newlyand old
industrialised countries (2014); data in 1,000 t
NIC
Country Production Share (%) in
golbal production
OIC
Country Production Share (%) in
global production
China 55,390 48.0 USA 10,368 9.0
Brazil 3,192 2.8 Germany 5,523 4.8
Russ. Fed. 2,974 2.6 Spain 3,556 3.3
Philippines 1,691 1.5 France 2,130 1.8
Mexico 1,291 1.1 Canada 1,962 1.7
Thailand 0,949 0.8 Poland 1,865 1.6
6countries 65,484 56.8 6countries 25,409 22.0
CDG total 66,289 57.5 CDG total 36,810 31.9
Source: FAO database FLEISCHWIRTSCHAFT international 4_2017
increased considerably over the
past two decades. Closely related
to the differences in the growth
rates at continent or country
development group base were
spatial shifts and the development
of new growth poles, especially
in East Asia. While North
America and Europe lost shares
in the global production volume,
Asia as well as Central and South
America gained share. Acloser
analysis at country development
group base revealed that in particular
the extraordinary dynamics
in the group of the newly industrialised
countries was the main
driving force behind the fast
increase of the global production
volume and the resulting spatial
shifts. Aperspective for the development
of pig meat production
shows that the next decade will
also see avery dynamical development.
Several Asian countries
will not only be able to strengthen
their own position in global pig
meat production but also that of
Asia as the new unchallenged
centre.
Hans-Wilhelm
Windhorst
isProfessor emeritus and
Scientific Director of the
Science and Information
Centre Sustainable Poultry Production
(WING), University of Vechta, Germany
Authors´ address
Prof. Dr.Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst, Universität
Vechta, Science and Information
Centre Sustainable Poultry Production
(WING), Universitätsstr.5,49377 Vechta,
Germany,
hwindhorst@wing.uni-vechta.de
Rabobank
Battle for China’s pork market
Global pork trade is facing new
dynamics, driven by price developments,
new trade deals, and more
challenging business environments,
according to RaboResearch’slatest
Global Pork QuarterlyQ32017.
The potential softening bias on
prices contrasts with the stability of
the Rabobank Five-Nation Hog Price
Index thus far in 2017.Inthe first
five months of 2017,China’spork
imports were flat, which contrasts
with the significant growth seen in
1H 2016.The recovery of local production
and strong international
prices is believed to be responsible
for slower imports. In China, pork
prices have declined by 30%, from
the record levels of last year.Asa
result, Chinese traders are taking a
more cautious approach to imports
in 2017.Rabobank holds the view
that China’spork production will
increase by about 2% in 2017.
Hog production recovery was
faster than expected in 1H,asmany
producers shared apositive view of
the market and made rapid herd
replenishments. While the expansion
of hog production should
continue in 2H 2017,ithas been
slowed by the price plunge in Q2.
Tight supplyand firm demand have
maintained upward pressure on
prices in the EU and starting to
challenge exporters. In this context,
the recentlyannounced trade pact
with Japan, offering tariff reductions,
is good news for European
exporters. US pork exports still face
uncertainty due to potential trade
policy changes and astrong currency,
but have been better than
expected thus far in 2017.With
weaker demand from China offset by
stronger demand from Mexico, total
exports are expected to increase by
about 10%, compared with 2016.
Increasing US exports are becoming
even more important as production
continues to expand.
Brazil faces great challenges due
to political turmoil, and exports in
recent months have declined significantly.
However, even with these
challenges, Brazil’spork market is
still expected to deliver apositive
result, due to lower supply,
favourable feed prices, and a
favourable exchange rate.
//www.rabobank.com/en