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Thursday <strong>23</strong> <strong>Aug</strong>ust <strong>2018</strong><br />

10 BUSINESS DAY<br />

C002D5556<br />

COMMENT<br />

UCHE UWALEKE<br />

Uche Uwaleke is a Professor of Capital<br />

market and the Chair of Banking<br />

and Finance Department at the<br />

Nasarawa State University Keffi<br />

The numbers are in<br />

and the concerns are<br />

mounting. In its latest<br />

report on the country’s<br />

public debt stock,<br />

the Debt Management Office<br />

puts the total debt of the federal<br />

government, the thirty six states<br />

and the FCT as of June 30, <strong>2018</strong><br />

at N22.38 trillion (or USD73.2<br />

billion) representing about 19<br />

per cent of GDP. This comprises<br />

external debt of about N6.75 trillion<br />

(or USD22.08 billion) and<br />

domestic debt of about N15.629<br />

(or USD51.12 billion). There are<br />

divergent opinions regarding<br />

the sustainability of the present<br />

public debt levels. Leading<br />

the proponents of ‘’no cause<br />

for alarm’’ is the DMO whose<br />

Director-General Ms. Pat Oniha<br />

has been quoted as asserting that<br />

“ Nigeria’s borrowing remains<br />

sustainable in the short, medium<br />

to long term levels, guided by the<br />

DMO objective of prudence”. Relying<br />

on a low total Public Debtto-GDP<br />

ratio which is far below<br />

the 56 per cent World Bank’s<br />

debt sustainability threshold for<br />

countries in Nigeria’s peer group,<br />

comment is free<br />

Send 800word comments to comment@businessdayonline.com<br />

On the growing concerns over debt sustainability<br />

the DMO has gone ahead to upwardly<br />

review the self-imposed<br />

country-specific debt limit from<br />

19.39 per cent to 25 per cent in<br />

the medium-term of <strong>2018</strong>-2020<br />

thus providing scope for more<br />

government borrowing.<br />

However, not a few, including<br />

the IMF, have faulted this<br />

move pointing to the already<br />

high cost of servicing public<br />

debt which is undermining<br />

government spending plans.<br />

Although the increased financing<br />

requirements needed to fast<br />

track economic recovery and<br />

address the huge infrastructural<br />

deficit would entail enormous<br />

funding resources including<br />

borrowing, rising debt service<br />

payment relative to revenues, it<br />

is argued, places a squeeze on<br />

government’s ability to fund its<br />

expenditure programmes.<br />

To buttress this point, data<br />

from the Office of the Accountant<br />

General of the Federation<br />

and the Budget Office for the<br />

period January to June 2017<br />

indicate that on a pro-rata basis<br />

the budgeted FGN 48.5 per<br />

cent share of federally retained<br />

revenue was N1.75 trillion while<br />

actual revenue over the same<br />

period was N1.3 trillion resulting<br />

in an adverse variance of about<br />

N438 billion. Similarly, debt service<br />

for the first half of the year<br />

was budgeted at N920.67 billion<br />

while the actual was higher at<br />

N927.74 billion. Therefore, the<br />

actual debt service to revenue<br />

ratio between January and June<br />

2017 works out at about 70 per<br />

cent - quite high by historical<br />

standards. This figure speaks for<br />

itself, underscoring the magnitude<br />

of the debt burden.<br />

‘<br />

...that to deal with the<br />

public debt challenge<br />

fiscal discipline is<br />

required at all levels of<br />

government. Alternative<br />

funding sources should<br />

be explored including<br />

privatisation through the<br />

Nigerian Stock Exchange to<br />

engender inclusive growth<br />

as well as through Public-<br />

Private Partnership (PPP)<br />

arrangements<br />

’<br />

As a corollary, the partial approach<br />

to the determination of<br />

public debt stock helps to reinforce<br />

the false notion of debt sustainability.<br />

If public debt is the totality of<br />

government’s obligations, a more<br />

comprehensive approach would<br />

sweep into the debt basket outstanding<br />

debts owed to contractors<br />

and pensioners. A conservative<br />

approach would equally capture<br />

judgment debts as well as those of<br />

the Assets Management Corporation<br />

of Nigeria especially against<br />

the backdrop of the fact that it will<br />

one day embrace its sunset clause<br />

and cease to be a going concern.<br />

The federal government’s<br />

strategy of increasingly resorting<br />

to external borrowing to fund<br />

budget deficit finds explanation<br />

in the increasing cost of<br />

servicing domestic debt. This<br />

disposition accounts for the<br />

growing quantum of foreign<br />

debts contracted on commercial<br />

terms in recent times with much<br />

emphasis placed on tapping the<br />

Eurobond markets. This strategy<br />

is yielding results with the debt<br />

mix gradually trending towards to<br />

the 40:60 DMO target from 15:85<br />

previously to 30:70 currently in<br />

terms of external and domestic<br />

debts respectively.<br />

Nevertheless, the preponderance<br />

of fragilities in the Nigerian<br />

economy warrant a cautious approach<br />

to new external borrowing-<br />

one that is shy of nonconcessional<br />

loans contracted<br />

purely on commercial terms<br />

such as Eurobonds. Indeed, the<br />

country can only hope that there<br />

are no more currency shocks in<br />

the near future. The International<br />

Monetary Fund (IMF) in its most<br />

recent article IV Consultation<br />

report had raised a red flag regarding<br />

the debt level which was<br />

“creating some form of vulnerabilities.”<br />

Even the result of the<br />

2017 Debt Sustainability Analysis<br />

exercise by the DMO admitted<br />

that ‘’the ratios of External Debt<br />

Service-to-Exports and External<br />

Debt-Service-to-Revenue also<br />

deteriorated throughout the projection<br />

period thus, indicating<br />

that Nigeria’s Total Debt portfolio<br />

is highly susceptible to Revenue<br />

shocks’’.<br />

Indeed, high external debt<br />

itself can be an obstacle to growth<br />

as argued in the debt overhang<br />

literature. External borrowing<br />

can be detrimental if it fails to<br />

generate a commensurate increase<br />

in a country’s capacity to<br />

repay as the Nigeria’s case seems<br />

to demonstrate. Data obtained<br />

from the DMO website reveal<br />

that Nigeria’s external debt stock<br />

as at 30th June <strong>2018</strong> of about<br />

USD22.08 billion comprises<br />

USD10.88 billion from Multilateral<br />

sources (representing 49.28 per<br />

cent), USD2.40 billion Bilateral<br />

(or 10.87 per cent) and USD8.80<br />

billion Commercial (chiefly Eurobonds)<br />

which translates to<br />

39.85 per cent. Although commercial<br />

debt represents less than<br />

40 per cent of the total external<br />

debt stock, it took up the highest<br />

share of the actual external debt<br />

service payments in the second<br />

quarter of <strong>2018</strong> at 56.52 per cent<br />

with Multilateral at 26.28 per cent<br />

and Bilateral at 7.92 per cent.<br />

The country’s ratio of external<br />

debt service to revenue may be<br />

relatively low, but the pre-2005<br />

experience —when the country’s<br />

external debts reached unsustainable<br />

levels which hampered<br />

for many years efforts to achieve<br />

inclusive growth —serves as a<br />

sober reminder of what can go<br />

wrong. This underscores the<br />

importance of prioritizing concessional<br />

external loans over<br />

commercial debts consistent<br />

with the standard framework for<br />

debt sustainability.<br />

Note: The rest of this article continues<br />

in the online edition of Business Day<br />

@https://businessdayonline.com/<br />

Send reactions to:<br />

comment@businessdayonline.com<br />

TUNDE AJIBIKE<br />

Tunde Ajibike is a staff of Oyo State<br />

Ministry of Information, Culture and<br />

Tourism, Ibadan<br />

It is saddening to hear about<br />

the sudden and untimely<br />

death of nine corps members<br />

currently serving in Taraba<br />

State of Nigeria. It was reported in<br />

the media that nine out of twenty<br />

two corps members got drowned<br />

while picnicking at River Mayo<br />

– Selbe in Gashaka Local Government<br />

Area of Taraba State. It is<br />

unfortunate that the upsurge in<br />

volume of water carried the young<br />

graduates away and their corpses<br />

were later found in the river.<br />

The trend is becoming worrisome<br />

and there is need to urgently<br />

address it. How do we explain the<br />

calamity which is traceable to youthful<br />

exuberance on the part of this<br />

young graduates who are suppose<br />

to be the great leaders of tomorrow?<br />

It is disheartening that they cut their<br />

lives short abruptly and threw their<br />

parents into deep mourning.<br />

While it is humanistic to commiserate<br />

and condole with the<br />

parents, relations, friends, and<br />

the National Youth Service Corps<br />

(NYSC), it is also expedient to<br />

checkmate the excesses of these<br />

corps members and re-orientate<br />

them to eschew acts of violence,<br />

vices and misdenamour that are<br />

Incessant death of corpers: Who is to blame?<br />

inimical to their health and well<br />

being.<br />

No doubt, the NYSC scheme<br />

is a laudable programme conceptualized<br />

and designed by the<br />

Federal Government of Nigeria<br />

on 22nd May, 1973 with the aim of<br />

using it as a tool of reconciliation,<br />

reconstruction and rebuilding of<br />

the nation after the civil war. It<br />

was primarily established based<br />

on decree 24.<br />

It is obvious that the scheme<br />

was created to encourage and<br />

develop a common ties among<br />

the youths of Nigeria and promote<br />

national unity but the events<br />

unfolding these days is sending<br />

wrong signal to the members of<br />

the public.<br />

There is no gainsaying the<br />

fact that Nigerians are becoming<br />

skeptical about the veracity of the<br />

claims made by the NYSC that<br />

the welfare of corps members is<br />

paramount to the scheme. The<br />

Director General of the NYSC,<br />

Brigadier General Suleiman Kazaure<br />

confirmed that 95 percent of<br />

death recorded by the corps members<br />

was due to road accident. It<br />

is baffling to observe that corps<br />

member embarked on unnecessary<br />

and frivolous journey in spite<br />

of the words of admonition to take<br />

permission before travelling out of<br />

their respective areas of primary<br />

assignment.<br />

Not only this, corps members<br />

were brazenly maimed by hoodlums<br />

during elections, a typical example is<br />

an orphan, Okonta Samuel Dumebi,<br />

who was gruesomely murdered during<br />

Rives State’s re-run election. A<br />

corps member was also shot dead by<br />

a policeman on Wednesday, 4th July,<br />

<strong>2018</strong>, a SARS officer identified as Benjamin<br />

Peters on the day of her Passing<br />

out Parade (POP) at the Federal<br />

Capital Territory. The case of Ojesola<br />

Taofeek, a young graduate serving<br />

in Bayelsa State that got drowned 3<br />

months ago in Nembe River is still<br />

fresh in the memory of Nigerians.<br />

The corps member was reportedly<br />

visited Ogbolomabiri Jetty to take<br />

pictures of the waterside as part of<br />

memories during service year when<br />

he accidently fell in to the river. All<br />

attempt to rescue him proved futile,<br />

he lost his life in the process.<br />

Another pathetic incident was<br />

reported in the media which involved<br />

three corps members that lost their<br />

lives during the 2016 Batch B, Stream<br />

1, Orientation Course in Bayelsa,<br />

Kano and Zamfara States. The death<br />

of the trio, Chinyerun Nweneda Elechi;<br />

Ifedapo Oladapo and Monday<br />

Asquo Ukeme followed brief illness<br />

and the NYSC claimed that medical<br />

teams in the camps battle to save<br />

their lives in line with established<br />

procedures, hence, some critics are<br />

insinuating that NYSC is fond of<br />

spurious claims that cannot be sub-<br />

stantiated with verifiable evidences.<br />

The in exhaustive list of corps<br />

members that passed on during the<br />

orientation programme generated<br />

a lot of controversy. Another good<br />

example is Miss Hilda Amadi who<br />

was reportedly died during the<br />

orientation camp in Kwara State.<br />

The incessant killing of corps<br />

members and the avoidable deaths<br />

of these young graduates is adversely<br />

affecting the corporate<br />

image of the NYSC in recent time.<br />

The death of corps members during<br />

the orientation camps across<br />

the nation was purportedly alleged<br />

to be caused by the negligence of<br />

the medical team of the NYSC,<br />

who are either incompetent or<br />

manifesting carefree attitude which<br />

consequently, led to the death of<br />

the corps members. To this end,<br />

a school of thought advocated for<br />

the scrapping of the scheme, they<br />

premised their argument on the<br />

fact that the scheme has outlived<br />

its relevance and the purpose of<br />

establishing it is almost defeated,<br />

however, it will be unfair to blame<br />

the NYSC for the death of all the<br />

corps members in Nigeria. While<br />

it is apparent that some deaths are<br />

natural, which could be referred<br />

to as acts of God, some others are<br />

self inflicted. Apparently some<br />

corps members are disobedient<br />

and live sedentary lifestyle that<br />

predisposes them to dangers and<br />

untimely death.<br />

We cannot blame the NYSC for<br />

the death of Corps members that<br />

involved in vehicular accident<br />

while embarking on frivolous and<br />

unauthorised journeys. Also, corps<br />

members that patronize club houses<br />

and take delight in “crawling”<br />

in the midnight. The law enforcement<br />

agents could mistaken them<br />

for robbers or maraunders. Most<br />

often, they may be arrested and<br />

locked up or shot in the midnight.<br />

These young men and ladies<br />

involved in a lot of sharp practices<br />

and vices ranging from cyber<br />

crimes; prostitution; kidnapping;<br />

highway robbery; abduction; drug<br />

abuse; raping; ritual killing; advance<br />

fees fraud and so on.<br />

The parents have significant<br />

roles to play to reduce the persistent<br />

killing of the corps members<br />

and minimise the untimely death<br />

of these young graduates. It is<br />

behoves on parents to enforce discipline<br />

especially at the formative<br />

stage of the lives of their children.<br />

It is disheartening to observe that<br />

some parents are running permissive<br />

home at the expense of their<br />

children. Therefore, to ensure<br />

the safety of the lives of the corps<br />

member it is a responsibility of all<br />

the stakeholders.<br />

Send reactions to:<br />

comment@businessdayonline.com

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