The Intelligence Review | volume 3 | issue 6 |

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Sino-Russian Diplomacy and the DPRK A few weeks following the military exercise, Russian and Chinese diplomats met in Moscow to discuss their support for North Korea (DPRK) amid the country’s denuclearization negotiations with the US (Jeong-ho 2018). The diplomats announced that they shared support for a plan of “phased and synchronized measures” (Gehrke 2018), which would mean that the DPRK would receive gradual sanctions relief as it takes steps in denuclearizing. This approach directly contrasts the US position, which is to keep all sanctions in place until after the DPRK has completely dismantled its nuclear weapons program (Imran 2018). Despite American dissatisfaction with the statements, Russia and China have stated that they will continue to lend bilateral support for the DPRK throughout their denuclearization talks with the US (Gehrke 2018). Sino-Russian Energy and Trade Relations In addition to military and diplomatic engagements, Sino-Russian cooperation has recently accelerated in areas of energy and trade. According to the Chinese General Administration of Customs (GAC), Sino-Russian trade turnover reached $77 billion in September and was projected to reach $100 billion by the end of December (Guillar 2018). In January of 2019, the GAC released a statement claiming that trade turnover between the two countries rose by nearly 30% throughout the previous year, amounting to a record $107.06 billion (Russia Today 2019b). Although this number is miniscule in comparison to China’s trade with its other major trading partners, including the US (Huasheng 2018), the unprecedented level of Sino- Russian trade cooperation signaled that the two countries’ trade relations may be healthier than expected. Furthermore, the Russians cemented their position as China’s largest energy supplier in 2018 through a new energy deal and the ongoing construction of a natural-gas pipeline (Tass 2018). On November 29, the Russian oil company Rosneft stated that it signed a one-year deal with a state-run Chinese manufacturing company that will increase Russian oil exports to China by roughly 48,197 barrels per day (Griffin 2018). The Russians also projected that their construction of the Power of Siberia —a natural gas pipeline that would transport energy from Russia’s Far East directly to China— would be completed by the end of the year (Pipoli 2018). Although the construction has 17
yet to be completed, Russia claimed in late February of 2019 that the pipeline’s construction was 99% complete (Russia Today 2019a). Russian officials also announced that they expect to begin exporting natural gas to China through the pipeline beginning on December 1, 2019 (Kallanish Energy 2019). Analysis Sino-Russian synergy comes at a time when both countries’ relations with the US are becoming increasingly strained. Russia’s economy has been hit hard with US sanctions, and China continues to engage in tense trade relations with Washington over tariffs. China and the US have also been at odds over Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, which has increased the likelihood of a Sino-American military confrontation in the eastern Pacific. China’s decision to participate in Vostok, the massive Russian military exercise, may have been made in order to send a message to Washington: we will not hesitate to align ourselves with the Russians in the face of American pressure. The Chinese are highly concerned about the America’s strategic military presence in the Pacific and likely see the proximity of American bases to their borders as a challenge to their national interests. Moreover, the US has continually disregarded Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea by sailing naval vessels into disputed waters (Zhenhua 2018). The Chinese may be signaling that they do not view the Russians as an imminent security threat and that they are willing to align themselves with Moscow, if necessary. Russia and China have also showed their willingness to cooperate diplomatically, particularly regarding the potential for denuclearization in the Korean Peninsula. Both countries affirmed their willingness to support the DPRK after the country’s denuclearization talks with the US stagnated in late 2018 and again in early 2019 (US New 2018). Russia and China likely see the stagnation as an opportunity to pursue their foreign policy objectives, which could be to oversee the denuclearization process and mitigate the US’ influence in the region (Jeong-ho 2018). Sino-Russian control over the denuclearization process could lead to the DPRK’s weapons being transferred to Russia and/or China instead of the US and its allies. This would allow Russia and China to tout their ability to responsibly handle tense regional dilemmas and appear as international peace brokers. Moreover, both Russia and China appear to be disgruntled with the US’ status as an 18
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Page 50 and 51: Biographical Notes on Contributors
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The Intelligence Review | volume 3 | issue 6 |

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