The_Future_of_Employment

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Computerisable Rank Probability Label SOC code Occupation 509. 0.87 47-2043 Floor Sanders and Finishers 510. 0.87 1 53-6021 Parking Lot Attendants 511. 0.87 47-4051 Highway Maintenance Workers 512. 0.88 47-2061 Construction Laborers 513. 0.88 43-5061 Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks 514. 0.88 51-9141 Semiconductor Processors 515. 0.88 17-1021 Cartographers and Photogrammetrists 516. 0.88 51-4051 Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders 517. 0.88 51-9012 Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders 518. 0.88 51-6091 Extruding and Forming Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Synthetic and Glass Fibers 519. 0.88 47-2053 Terrazzo Workers and Finishers 520. 0.88 51-4194 Tool Grinders, Filers, and Sharpeners 521. 0.88 49-3043 Rail Car Repairers 522. 0.89 51-3011 Bakers 523. 0.89 1 31-9094 Medical Transcriptionists 524. 0.89 47-2022 Stonemasons 525. 0.89 53-3022 Bus Drivers, School or Special Client 526. 0.89 1 27-3042 Technical Writers 527. 0.89 49-9096 Riggers 528. 0.89 47-4061 Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment Operators 529. 0.89 51-8021 Stationary Engineers and Boiler Operators 530. 0.89 1 51-6031 Sewing Machine Operators 531. 0.89 1 53-3041 Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs 532. 0.9 1 43-4161 Human Resources Assistants, Except Payroll and Timekeeping 533. 0.9 29-2011 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists 534. 0.9 47-2171 Reinforcing Iron and Rebar Workers 535. 0.9 47-2181 Ro<strong>of</strong>ers 536. 0.9 53-7021 Crane and Tower Operators 537. 0.9 53-6041 Traffic Technicians 538. 0.9 53-6051 Transportation Inspectors 539. 0.9 51-4062 Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic 540. 0.9 51-9195 Molders, Shapers, and Casters, Except Metal and Plastic 541. 0.9 13-2021 Appraisers and Assessors <strong>of</strong> Real Estate 542. 0.9 53-7072 Pump Operators, Except Wellhead Pumpers 543. 0.9 49-9097 Signal and Track Switch Repairers 544. 0.91 39-3012 Gaming and Sports Book Writers and Runners 545. 0.91 49-9063 Musical Instrument Repairers and Tuners 546. 0.91 39-7011 Tour Guides and Escorts 547. 0.91 49-9011 Mechanical Door Repairers 548. 0.91 51-3091 Food and Tobacco Roasting, Baking, and Drying Machine Operators and Tenders 549. 0.91 53-7071 Gas Compressor and Gas Pumping Station Operators 550. 0.91 29-2071 Medical Records and Health Information Technicians 551. 0.91 51-9121 Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders 552. 0.91 51-4081 Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic 68
Computerisable Rank Probability Label SOC code Occupation 553. 0.91 53-4013 Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers 554. 0.91 49-2093 Electrical and Electronics Installers and Repairers, Transportation Equipment 555. 0.91 35-9011 Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers 556. 0.91 51-4191 Heat Treating Equipment Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic 557. 0.91 19-4041 Geological and Petroleum Technicians 558. 0.91 49-3021 Automotive Body and Related Repairers 559. 0.91 51-7032 Patternmakers, Wood 560. 0.91 51-4021 Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic 561. 0.92 43-9071 Office Machine Operators, Except Computer 562. 0.92 29-2052 Pharmacy Technicians 563. 0.92 43-4131 Loan Interviewers and Clerks 564. 0.92 53-7031 Dredge Operators 565. 0.92 41-3021 Insurance Sales Agents 566. 0.92 51-7011 Cabinetmakers and Bench Carpenters 567. 0.92 51-9123 Painting, Coating, and Decorating Workers 568. 0.92 47-4031 Fence Erectors 569. 0.92 51-4193 Plating and Coating Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic 570. 0.92 41-2031 Retail Salespersons 571. 0.92 35-3021 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 572. 0.92 51-9399 Production Workers, All Other 573. 0.92 47-3012 Helpers–Carpenters 574. 0.93 51-9193 Cooling and Freezing Equipment Operators and Tenders 575. 0.93 51-2091 Fiberglass Laminators and Fabricators 576. 0.93 47-5013 Service Unit Operators, Oil, Gas, and Mining 577. 0.93 53-7011 Conveyor Operators and Tenders 578. 0.93 49-3053 Outdoor Power Equipment and Other Small Engine Mechanics 579. 0.93 53-4012 Locomotive Firers 580. 0.93 53-7063 Machine Feeders and Offbearers 581. 0.93 51-4061 Model Makers, Metal and Plastic 582. 0.93 49-2021 Radio, Cellular, and Tower Equipment Installers and Repairs 583. 0.93 51-3021 Butchers and Meat Cutters 584. 0.93 51-9041 Extruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders 585. 0.93 53-7081 Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors 586. 0.93 1 13-2081 Tax Examiners and Collectors, and Revenue Agents 587. 0.93 51-4022 Forging Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic 588. 0.93 1 53-7051 Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators 589. 0.94 1 13-2011 Accountants and Auditors 590. 0.94 51-4032 Drilling and Boring Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic 591. 0.94 43-9051 Mail Clerks and Mail Machine Operators, Except Postal Service 592. 0.94 0 35-3031 Waiters and Waitresses 593. 0.94 51-3022 Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers 594. 0.94 13-2031 Budget Analysts 595. 0.94 47-2051 Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers 69
Page 1 and 2:
THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCE
Page 3 and 4:
dition to the computerisation of ro
Page 5 and 6:
Titles (DOT), last revised in 1991,
Page 7 and 8:
the Glorious Revolution of 1688, de
Page 9 and 10:
a sequence of operations. 10 Yet wh
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of mechanisation, with dictaphones,
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How technological progress in the t
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can be accomplished by machines, wh
Page 17 and 18: pletely automated (Phua, et al., 20
Page 19 and 20: challenging or critical application
Page 21 and 22: e compared (Churchill and Newman, 2
Page 23 and 24: monly defined as non-routine (Brynj
Page 25 and 26: easonably mature, enabled by the ra
Page 27 and 28: obots can now reproduce some aspect
Page 29 and 30: the O∗NET aggregate. In addition,
Page 31 and 32: TABLE I. O∗NET variables that ser
Page 33 and 34: Williams, 2006). Such classifiers m
Page 35 and 36: 100 80 80 Assisting and caring for
Page 37 and 38: 400M Management, Business, and Fina
Page 39 and 40: that sales occupations, which are l
Page 41 and 42: Average median wage (USD) 80k 60k 4
Page 43 and 44: do not account for future wage leve
Page 45 and 46: 2013), are highly susceptible to co
Page 47 and 48: Autor, D., Levy, F. and Murnane, R.
Page 49 and 50: Clifford, G.D. and Clifton, D. (201
Page 51 and 52: Hangal, S. and Lam, M.S. (2002). Tr
Page 53 and 54: Louis, P. and Paterson, G. (1986).
Page 55 and 56: Oldenski, L. (2012). Offshoring and
Page 57 and 58: APPENDIX The table below ranks occu
Page 59 and 60: Computerisable Rank Probability Lab
Page 67: Computerisable Rank Probability Lab
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