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The Asian Independent 16 Oct to 31 Oct 2019

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12 <strong>16</strong>-10-<strong>2019</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>31</strong>-10-<strong>2019</strong> BUSINESS<br />

www.theasianindependent.co.uk<br />

BJP chief <strong>to</strong> take up RCEP<br />

with govt, PM <strong>to</strong> make a call<br />

New Delhi, Amid opposition <strong>to</strong> the<br />

free-trade agreement (FTA) between <strong>16</strong><br />

countries, including India, by the Swadeshi<br />

Jagran Manch (SJM), the Bharatiya Janata<br />

Party (BJP) has sent a report <strong>to</strong> the party<br />

president, <strong>to</strong> be taken up with the Prime<br />

Minister.<br />

<strong>The</strong> report has been prepared on the<br />

basis of talks with the organisations associated<br />

with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak<br />

Sangh (RSS), leaders of workers’ unions<br />

and think-tanks. Gopal Krishna Agrawal,<br />

BJP spokesman for economic matters, <strong>to</strong>ld<br />

IANS, “We have garnered across the board<br />

views on the Regional Comprehensive<br />

Economic Partnership (RCEP)” — both for<br />

and against it”.<strong>The</strong> report has been sent <strong>to</strong><br />

the BJP president, who would be taking it<br />

up with the government, he said and added,<br />

the Prime Minister would take the final<br />

decision.<br />

Given the central government’s<br />

approach <strong>to</strong> the FTA, the SJM threatened <strong>to</strong><br />

hold protests between <strong>Oct</strong>ober 10 and<br />

<strong>Oct</strong>ober 20 across the country. It prompted<br />

the <strong>to</strong>p BJP leadership <strong>to</strong> attempt a ‘damage<br />

control’ and it asked General Secretary<br />

B.L. San<strong>to</strong>sh and Gopal <strong>to</strong> find a way out.<br />

On <strong>Oct</strong>ober 7, they had meetings with representatives<br />

of various industry organisations<br />

and the SJM.<br />

An attempt is being made <strong>to</strong> reach FTA<br />

with the RCEP partner countries — India,<br />

China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and<br />

New Zealand — and 10 Association of<br />

Southeast <strong>Asian</strong> Nations (ASEAN) countries.<br />

Union Minister for Commerce and<br />

Industry Piyush Goyal is in Bangkok <strong>to</strong><br />

attend the ninth minister-level meeting of<br />

the RCEP, scheduled on <strong>Oct</strong>ober 11-12. It’s<br />

the last minister-level meeting before the<br />

third Summit on November 4.<br />

<strong>The</strong> SJM believes the country is reeling<br />

under economic crisis and after this agreement<br />

countries, like China, will start dumping<br />

products in India, which will ruin the<br />

Indian industries and widen the job crisis.<br />

Ashwini Mahajan, SJM National Cocoordina<strong>to</strong>r,<br />

on <strong>Oct</strong>ober 10 tweeted:<br />

“China is selling 17 crore bicycles, while<br />

India is able <strong>to</strong> sell only 1.70 crore bicycles.<br />

In this situation, if India allows<br />

China a free trade through the RCEP than<br />

the bicycle industry of Punjab will be<br />

ruined”.<br />

Safal <strong>to</strong> provide <strong>to</strong>ma<strong>to</strong> puree<br />

at Rs 25 per pack in Delhi<br />

New Delhi, To alleviate the problem of shortfall of <strong>to</strong>ma<strong>to</strong>es<br />

in the city, Safal will provide from Friday <strong>to</strong>ma<strong>to</strong> puree from all<br />

its outlets here at Rs 25 per 200 gram pack. This pack is equivalent<br />

<strong>to</strong> about 800 grams of <strong>to</strong>ma<strong>to</strong>es. Another larger pack of 825<br />

grams priced at Rs 85 will also be made available which is equivalent<br />

<strong>to</strong> about 2.5 kgs. <strong>The</strong> s<strong>to</strong>cks have already been moved <strong>to</strong> all<br />

the outlets and the sales will begin from Friday onwards at all<br />

booths. <strong>The</strong> Secretary, Department of Consumer Affairs on<br />

Thursday chaired an inter-ministerial meeting <strong>to</strong> take s<strong>to</strong>ck of the<br />

rise in prices of <strong>to</strong>ma<strong>to</strong>es in some parts of the country including<br />

Delhi-NCR. It was decided during the meeting that <strong>to</strong>ma<strong>to</strong> producing<br />

states will be asked <strong>to</strong> augment the supply <strong>to</strong> regions<br />

which are in short supply including Delhi <strong>to</strong> improve availability<br />

and moderate prices. Toma<strong>to</strong>-producing states like<br />

Maharashtra, Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh<br />

have been advised <strong>to</strong> interact with APMCs, traders and transporters<br />

<strong>to</strong> ensure regular supply so that prices normalize. <strong>The</strong><br />

Agriculture Ministry informed the committee that supply has<br />

been hit due <strong>to</strong> incessant rains in Maharashtra and Karnataka and<br />

the situation will normalise in the next 10 days as monsoon rains<br />

are already receding.<br />

His<strong>to</strong>ric fall in India vehicles<br />

sales enters 11th month<br />

New Delhi, Despite a 135 basis point interest rate cut since<br />

February and a number of measures announced by the Central<br />

government, including a sharp corporate tax cut, domestic vehicle<br />

sales plummeted for the<br />

11th straight month in<br />

September.<br />

Society of Indian<br />

Au<strong>to</strong>mobile Manufacturers<br />

(SIAM) data released on<br />

Friday showed that <strong>to</strong>tal<br />

commercial vehicle sales —<br />

a proxy for the economy’s<br />

commercial health — steeply<br />

fell by 39 per cent <strong>to</strong> 58,419 units in September. Rating agency<br />

ICRA had, earlier this month, said its outlook on the domestic<br />

commercial vehicle sec<strong>to</strong>r was negative, considering the sharp<br />

correction in vehicle sales amid slowing economic growth,<br />

overcapacity and tight financing environment.<br />

Signs that the cus<strong>to</strong>mers were still away from showrooms<br />

was clearly visible in passenger vehicles sales data, which witnessed<br />

a decline of 23.69 per cent <strong>to</strong> 223,<strong>31</strong>7 units this<br />

September. Passenger cars sales witnessed de-growth of of 33.4<br />

per cent <strong>to</strong> 1<strong>31</strong>,281 units. In August, sales were down 41 per<br />

cent. SIAM President, Rajan Wadhera, however, <strong>to</strong>ld reporters<br />

that the festive season retail sales that are moni<strong>to</strong>red on a regular<br />

basis is “good” but avoided giving any sales forecast.<br />

“<strong>The</strong> Navaratri sale has also been good and if we compare it<br />

<strong>to</strong> the sales from last year, the sale has been nearly 10-12 per<br />

cent better,” he said. Wadera stressed that owing <strong>to</strong> number of<br />

government steps and ongoing festive season, the consumer<br />

sentiments have improved. Consumer confidence, the Reserve<br />

Bank of Indian showed, dipped <strong>to</strong> six-year low in September.<br />

Besides, two-wheeler sales – often tracked <strong>to</strong> analyse the<br />

rural markets health – were also down 22.09 per cent. Threewheeler<br />

sales declined by 6.66 percent in April-September <strong>2019</strong><br />

over the same period last year. Within three-wheelers, passenger<br />

carrier sales registered a de-growth of 6.37 percent and that of<br />

goods carriers declined by 7.98 percent in April-September<br />

<strong>2019</strong> over April-September 2018. In the two-wheeler segment,<br />

sales registered a de-growth of <strong>16</strong>.18 percent in April-<br />

September <strong>2019</strong> over April-September 2018 while in the segment,<br />

scooters, mo<strong>to</strong>rcycles and mopeds declined by <strong>16</strong>.94 per<br />

cent, 15.24 per cent and 25.33 per cent, respectively, in April-<br />

September <strong>2019</strong> over the comparable period last year. However,<br />

exports across categories inched-up by 0.68 per cent <strong>to</strong> 417,232<br />

units from 414,428 units shipped-out during September 2018.<br />

Aug fac<strong>to</strong>ry output at 81-month<br />

low, manufacturing shrinks<br />

New Delhi, Contraction in<br />

manufacturing activity decelerated<br />

India’s fac<strong>to</strong>ry output<br />

growth <strong>to</strong> (-)1.1 per cent in<br />

August <strong>2019</strong> from a rise of 4.6<br />

per cent reported in July, official<br />

data showed here on Friday. <strong>The</strong><br />

growth has hit the lowest level<br />

in the last 81 months. <strong>The</strong><br />

growth rate of August fac<strong>to</strong>ry<br />

output was lower than the 4.8<br />

per cent achieved during the corresponding<br />

month of the previous<br />

fiscal. “<strong>The</strong> Quick Estimates<br />

of Index of Industrial<br />

Production (IIP) with base 2011-<br />

12 for the month of August <strong>2019</strong><br />

stands at 126.6, which is 1.1 per<br />

cent lower as compared <strong>to</strong> the<br />

level in the month of August<br />

2018,” the Ministry of Statistics<br />

and Programme Implementation<br />

said. “<strong>The</strong> cumulative growth<br />

for the April-August period over<br />

the corresponding period of the<br />

previous year stands at 2.4 per<br />

cent,” it added.<br />

As per the data, the output<br />

rate of the manufacturing sec<strong>to</strong>r<br />

fell (-)1.2 per cent in August<br />

from a year-on-year (YoY) rise<br />

of 5.2 per cent. On a YoY basis,<br />

mining production inched up by<br />

just 0.1 per cent from a negative<br />

growth of (-)0.6 per cent and the<br />

sub-index of electricity generation<br />

was lower by (-)0.9 per cent<br />

from 7.6 per cent.<br />

Among the six use-based<br />

classification groups, the output<br />

of primary goods, which has the<br />

highest weightage of 34.04,<br />

grew by 1.1 per cent. <strong>The</strong> output<br />

of intermediate goods, which<br />

has the second highest weightage,<br />

increased by 7 per cent.<br />

<strong>The</strong> output of consumer nondurables<br />

was up by 4.1 per cent,<br />

whereas that of consumer<br />

durables fell by (-)9.1 per cent.<br />

In addition, output of infrastructure<br />

or construction goods<br />

decreased by (-)4.5 per cent and<br />

that of capital goods fell by (-)21<br />

per cent. In terms of industries,<br />

15 out of the 23 industry groups<br />

in the manufacturing sec<strong>to</strong>r have<br />

shown negative growth during<br />

the month under review as compared<br />

<strong>to</strong> the corresponding<br />

month of the previous year.<br />

“<strong>The</strong> industry group ‘manufacture<br />

of mo<strong>to</strong>r vehicles, trailers<br />

and semi-trailers’ has shown<br />

the highest negative growth of (-<br />

)23.1 per cent, followed by (-<br />

)21.7 per cent in ‘manufacture<br />

of machinery and equipment<br />

n.e.c.’ and (-)18 per cent in<br />

‘other manufacturing’,” the ministry<br />

said.<br />

“On the other hand, the<br />

industry group ‘manufacture of<br />

basic metals’ has shown the<br />

highest positive growth of 11.8<br />

per cent, followed by 11.3 per<br />

cent in ‘manufacture of wood<br />

and products of wood and cork,<br />

except furniture; manufacture of<br />

articles of straw and plaiting<br />

materials’ and 10.3 per cent in<br />

‘manufacture of wearing apparel’,”<br />

it said. According <strong>to</strong><br />

Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief<br />

Economist at India Ratings &<br />

Research: “IIP growth has been<br />

the lowest in the last 81 months<br />

and saw the first contraction<br />

after June 2017. It appears that<br />

pre-s<strong>to</strong>cking due <strong>to</strong> festive<br />

demand in September and<br />

<strong>Oct</strong>ober has not taken place.”<br />

“Going forward, the IIP is likely<br />

<strong>to</strong> show erratic low growth<br />

trend. <strong>The</strong> policy measures<br />

announced by the government<br />

after the first quarter GDP<br />

growth of 5 per cent are more<br />

supply side interventions and<br />

are unlikely <strong>to</strong> boost demand.<br />

With no fiscal space available <strong>to</strong><br />

the government, it is unlikely<br />

that the demand is going <strong>to</strong><br />

return back soon,” Pant said.<br />

ICRA’s Principal Economist<br />

Aditi Nayar said: “With the<br />

worsening in the performance of<br />

Coal India Limited and electricity<br />

generation, and the continuing<br />

deep contraction in au<strong>to</strong> production<br />

in September <strong>2019</strong>, it<br />

appears unlikely that the YoY<br />

decline in the IIP in August <strong>2019</strong><br />

will be reversed in the just concluded<br />

month.” “<strong>The</strong>re is a<br />

growing likelihood that the GDP<br />

growth may not meaningfully<br />

accelerate in Q2 FY2020 from<br />

the multi-quarter low of 5 per<br />

cent recorded in Q1 FY2020,<br />

despite a favourable base effect.<br />

<strong>The</strong> extent of pickup in consumption<br />

in the festive months<br />

and crop production in the rabi<br />

season will signal whether a<br />

material turnaround in demand<br />

and economic growth are in the<br />

offing.” Emkay Wealth<br />

Management’s Research Head<br />

Joseph Thomas said: “If we look<br />

at the sub classification one can<br />

see that the shrinkage in output<br />

has come from a dismal performance<br />

in manufacturing, substantial<br />

fall in capital goods,<br />

consumer durables and infra.<br />

This amply reflects the underlying<br />

weakness in manufacturing<br />

and industrial activity which<br />

needs <strong>to</strong> be addressed without<br />

much loss of time for economic<br />

recovery.”

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