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Ashburton Courier: February 27, 2020

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Page 8, <strong>Ashburton</strong>'s The <strong>Courier</strong>, Thursday <strong>February</strong> <strong>27</strong>, <strong>2020</strong><br />

Local news at www.starnews.co.nz<br />

Near Earth object (otherwise known as minor planets) trackers Pamela<br />

Kilmartin and Alan Gilmore, of Tekapo, were special guests at the<br />

Canterbury Astronomical Association's Stardate South Island camp.<br />

Stargazers at Staveley<br />

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By David Hill<br />

The prospect of an Armageddon­style<br />

meteor strike on planet Earth in the next<br />

200 years is extremely remote.<br />

Despite the efforts of science fiction<br />

to predict the Earth's armageddon,<br />

speakers at the Canterbury Astronomical<br />

Society's annual Stardate South<br />

Island <strong>2020</strong> camp at Staveley last<br />

weekend, say climate change is amuch<br />

bigger threat to humanity than acosmic<br />

encounter.<br />

Alan Gilmore, the former superintendent<br />

of the University of Canterbury's<br />

Mt John Observatory at Tekapo,<br />

has been tracking near Earth objects<br />

with his wife Pamela Kilmartin since the<br />

1970s and is confident no large asteroid<br />

will cause amajor extinction event any<br />

time soon.<br />

“No, Ithink humans are doing very<br />

well with climate change. We are doing<br />

it ourselves by environmental degradation.<br />

“Asteroids are athreat over centuries<br />

to millennia. We know from craters on<br />

the Earth that the Earth gets hit about<br />

three times per million years by a1km<br />

sized asteroid.”<br />

Such an impact would cause global<br />

effects by throwing up dust into the<br />

atmosphere and dimming the sun for<br />

several years, causing crop failures and<br />

food shortages, as well as devastation at<br />

the point of impact.<br />

More than one million near Earth<br />

objects, or space rocks and minor<br />

planets inside the orbit of Mars, were<br />

known to researchers.<br />

Mr Gilmore and Ms Kilmartin followed<br />

up on objects discovered by<br />

research programmes in Arizona and<br />

Hawaii so distances and future orbits<br />

could be estimated more accurately.<br />

Just one “potentially hazardous asteroid”,<br />

more than 140 metres across, was<br />

likely to pass within twenty times the<br />

moon's distance from Earth over the<br />

next decade.<br />

Asteroid 99942, otherwise known as<br />

Apophis, is 370 metres across and is<br />

expected to pass within 28,000km of<br />

Earth on April 14, 2029, New Zealand<br />

time.<br />

“The people who do all the very<br />

detailed calculations know that it won't<br />

be aproblem for at least 200 years,” Mr<br />

Gilmore said.<br />

A number of solutions were being<br />

explored by researchers to combat<br />

future risks, but anuclear strike, used in<br />

science fiction such as in the 1998 movie<br />

Armageddon, was not considered a<br />

viable option, he said.<br />

Options included gravity trackers,<br />

space mirrors to focus the sun's rays on<br />

the asteroid, firing aweighty object into<br />

an asteroid to see if it changed its path<br />

slightly and painting the asteroid black.<br />

“With these larger objects you<br />

wouldn't just get several days notice, but<br />

years or even decades.<br />

“None of these ideas are ready to go,<br />

but they're all being discussed and<br />

tested.”<br />

He said the Earth was asmall target in<br />

the vastness of space, so it was amatter<br />

of ensuring the asteroid arrived in<br />

Earth's orbit aminute earlier or later.<br />

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The <strong>Ashburton</strong> District Council is working<br />

with new consultants on abusiness casefor<br />

asecond bridge over the <strong>Ashburton</strong>River.<br />

Council had been working withHolmes<br />

Consulting for at least six months on the<br />

business case,but has now engaged<br />

Stantec,acompany that says it designs with<br />

communities in mind.<br />

Council officers and Stantec staff willbe<br />

meeting withthe NZ TransportAgency<br />

this month for aworkshop to progressthe<br />

business case for the bridge.<br />

The second urban bridge, at Chalmers<br />

Avenue, is estimated to cost $30 million<br />

and could reduce State HighwayOne peak<br />

time traffic by 40 percent.<br />

Roading manager Brian Fauthtold<br />

district councillorsrecently that Stantec<br />

was more experienced preparing business<br />

casesfor the transport agencyundernew<br />

social wellbeingpolicy.<br />

He said adetailed business casewas<br />

needed so council could jump relevant<br />

hurdlestomeet funding criteria.<br />

Government gave $94,000 from its<br />

Provincial Growth Fund to supportthe<br />

business case.<br />

Council will pay20per cent of the cost<br />

of the bridge, but the balanceofthe<br />

fundingisnot clear.<br />

Service delivery group manager Neil<br />

McCann said councilwas aguinea pig in a<br />

new process, but NZTAwas acommitted<br />

partner,which was good news.<br />

Cr John Falloon was not optimistic<br />

aboutthe speed of progress. ‘‘I don’t think<br />

Iwill see asecond bridgeinmylifetime.’’<br />

Council chief executive Hamish Riach<br />

said NZTA was keen on the project as it<br />

wouldrelievecongestion on the highway.<br />

Subject to apositive business case, the<br />

agency wouldsubsidise 51 per cent of the<br />

bridge cost; council could applytothe PGF<br />

for the balance.<br />

‘‘Andtherefore abusiness case is<br />

essential to ascertain whether the needis<br />

thereand whether we can raise the balance<br />

of the funding.<br />

‘‘We are doing this workonbehalfofthe<br />

community.’’<br />

Council is still waiting to hear from<br />

NZTA about when and where<br />

Government­funded traffic lights will be<br />

installed on the Tinwald highway.

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