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Page 8, <strong>Ashburton</strong>'s The <strong>Courier</strong>, Thursday <strong>February</strong> <strong>27</strong>, <strong>2020</strong><br />
Local news at www.starnews.co.nz<br />
Near Earth object (otherwise known as minor planets) trackers Pamela<br />
Kilmartin and Alan Gilmore, of Tekapo, were special guests at the<br />
Canterbury Astronomical Association's Stardate South Island camp.<br />
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THURSDAY 19 MARCH<br />
ASHBURTON<br />
Hotel <strong>Ashburton</strong><br />
By David Hill<br />
The prospect of an Armageddonstyle<br />
meteor strike on planet Earth in the next<br />
200 years is extremely remote.<br />
Despite the efforts of science fiction<br />
to predict the Earth's armageddon,<br />
speakers at the Canterbury Astronomical<br />
Society's annual Stardate South<br />
Island <strong>2020</strong> camp at Staveley last<br />
weekend, say climate change is amuch<br />
bigger threat to humanity than acosmic<br />
encounter.<br />
Alan Gilmore, the former superintendent<br />
of the University of Canterbury's<br />
Mt John Observatory at Tekapo,<br />
has been tracking near Earth objects<br />
with his wife Pamela Kilmartin since the<br />
1970s and is confident no large asteroid<br />
will cause amajor extinction event any<br />
time soon.<br />
“No, Ithink humans are doing very<br />
well with climate change. We are doing<br />
it ourselves by environmental degradation.<br />
“Asteroids are athreat over centuries<br />
to millennia. We know from craters on<br />
the Earth that the Earth gets hit about<br />
three times per million years by a1km<br />
sized asteroid.”<br />
Such an impact would cause global<br />
effects by throwing up dust into the<br />
atmosphere and dimming the sun for<br />
several years, causing crop failures and<br />
food shortages, as well as devastation at<br />
the point of impact.<br />
More than one million near Earth<br />
objects, or space rocks and minor<br />
planets inside the orbit of Mars, were<br />
known to researchers.<br />
Mr Gilmore and Ms Kilmartin followed<br />
up on objects discovered by<br />
research programmes in Arizona and<br />
Hawaii so distances and future orbits<br />
could be estimated more accurately.<br />
Just one “potentially hazardous asteroid”,<br />
more than 140 metres across, was<br />
likely to pass within twenty times the<br />
moon's distance from Earth over the<br />
next decade.<br />
Asteroid 99942, otherwise known as<br />
Apophis, is 370 metres across and is<br />
expected to pass within 28,000km of<br />
Earth on April 14, 2029, New Zealand<br />
time.<br />
“The people who do all the very<br />
detailed calculations know that it won't<br />
be aproblem for at least 200 years,” Mr<br />
Gilmore said.<br />
A number of solutions were being<br />
explored by researchers to combat<br />
future risks, but anuclear strike, used in<br />
science fiction such as in the 1998 movie<br />
Armageddon, was not considered a<br />
viable option, he said.<br />
Options included gravity trackers,<br />
space mirrors to focus the sun's rays on<br />
the asteroid, firing aweighty object into<br />
an asteroid to see if it changed its path<br />
slightly and painting the asteroid black.<br />
“With these larger objects you<br />
wouldn't just get several days notice, but<br />
years or even decades.<br />
“None of these ideas are ready to go,<br />
but they're all being discussed and<br />
tested.”<br />
He said the Earth was asmall target in<br />
the vastness of space, so it was amatter<br />
of ensuring the asteroid arrived in<br />
Earth's orbit aminute earlier or later.<br />
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The <strong>Ashburton</strong> District Council is working<br />
with new consultants on abusiness casefor<br />
asecond bridge over the <strong>Ashburton</strong>River.<br />
Council had been working withHolmes<br />
Consulting for at least six months on the<br />
business case,but has now engaged<br />
Stantec,acompany that says it designs with<br />
communities in mind.<br />
Council officers and Stantec staff willbe<br />
meeting withthe NZ TransportAgency<br />
this month for aworkshop to progressthe<br />
business case for the bridge.<br />
The second urban bridge, at Chalmers<br />
Avenue, is estimated to cost $30 million<br />
and could reduce State HighwayOne peak<br />
time traffic by 40 percent.<br />
Roading manager Brian Fauthtold<br />
district councillorsrecently that Stantec<br />
was more experienced preparing business<br />
casesfor the transport agencyundernew<br />
social wellbeingpolicy.<br />
He said adetailed business casewas<br />
needed so council could jump relevant<br />
hurdlestomeet funding criteria.<br />
Government gave $94,000 from its<br />
Provincial Growth Fund to supportthe<br />
business case.<br />
Council will pay20per cent of the cost<br />
of the bridge, but the balanceofthe<br />
fundingisnot clear.<br />
Service delivery group manager Neil<br />
McCann said councilwas aguinea pig in a<br />
new process, but NZTAwas acommitted<br />
partner,which was good news.<br />
Cr John Falloon was not optimistic<br />
aboutthe speed of progress. ‘‘I don’t think<br />
Iwill see asecond bridgeinmylifetime.’’<br />
Council chief executive Hamish Riach<br />
said NZTA was keen on the project as it<br />
wouldrelievecongestion on the highway.<br />
Subject to apositive business case, the<br />
agency wouldsubsidise 51 per cent of the<br />
bridge cost; council could applytothe PGF<br />
for the balance.<br />
‘‘Andtherefore abusiness case is<br />
essential to ascertain whether the needis<br />
thereand whether we can raise the balance<br />
of the funding.<br />
‘‘We are doing this workonbehalfofthe<br />
community.’’<br />
Council is still waiting to hear from<br />
NZTA about when and where<br />
Governmentfunded traffic lights will be<br />
installed on the Tinwald highway.