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April/May 2020 - BAY OF PLENTY BUSINESS NEWS

From mid-2016 Bay of Plenty businesses have a new voice, Bay of Plenty Business News. This new publication reflects the region’s growth and importance as part of the wider central North Island economy.

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<strong>April</strong>/<strong>May</strong> <strong>2020</strong> <strong>BAY</strong> <strong>OF</strong> <strong>PLENTY</strong> <strong>BUSINESS</strong> <strong>NEWS</strong> 15<br />

Covid-19<br />

– Market<br />

contagion?<br />

Market Update (Please note this column<br />

was prepared on 17 March, <strong>2020</strong>)<br />

In the last few weeks global<br />

sharemarkets have substantially<br />

retraced their early<br />

momentum for the month of<br />

January and the latter stages of<br />

last year.<br />

In the early period of the<br />

Covid-19 outbreak, financial<br />

markets seemed to blissfully<br />

ignore the progression of the<br />

virus. However, we are now<br />

in a period of daily market<br />

volatility as investors gauge<br />

the flow-on economic impacts<br />

and whether the recent sell-off<br />

presents buying opportunities.<br />

The catalyst for the sell-off<br />

has been two-fold.<br />

Firstly, the progression of<br />

With further rate cuts being implemented by<br />

Central Banks to try and curb the impact of<br />

Covid-19, low interest rates will be the norm<br />

for the immediate future.<br />

the virus outside of China and<br />

secondly, a steady stream of<br />

companies beginning to downgrade<br />

forecast earnings.<br />

The initial outbreak of the<br />

virus in China caused a major<br />

disruption to international supply<br />

chains, although the situation<br />

in that country seems to be<br />

improving.<br />

Perhaps the biggest factor<br />

in market performance over<br />

the next three to six months<br />

will be the as yet unknown impact<br />

on company earnings.<br />

It is possible we will see a<br />

rally if the spread of the virus<br />

can be contained, followed by<br />

dips as the market reacts to further<br />

earnings downgrades.<br />

All of this uncertainly begs<br />

the question: “How should we<br />

react?”<br />

Turbulent markets always<br />

make us feel like we should<br />

“do” something. Sometimes<br />

(like the 2008 financial crisis),<br />

we should. However, often sitting<br />

back and monitoring the<br />

situation is the best option. We<br />

think that is the case now.<br />

Since 2008 there have been<br />

19 sell-offs greater than five<br />

percent. The current downturn<br />

WHAT TO DO WITH YOUR MONEY<br />

> BY BRETT BELL-BOOTH<br />

Investment Adviser with Forsyth Barr Limited in Tauranga, and<br />

an Authorised Financial Adviser. Phone (07) 577 5725 or<br />

email brett.bell-booth@forsythbarr.co.nz.<br />

is now classified as a bear market,<br />

having retraced more than<br />

20 percent from its peak (at the<br />

time of writing, the sharemarket<br />

was down 21 percent.<br />

Every sell-off is serious –<br />

from Greece teetering on the<br />

brink of complete collapse, to<br />

the US Government sovereign<br />

downgrade in 2011.<br />

However, since December<br />

2008, the US sharemarket has<br />

risen well over 200 percent,<br />

excluding dividends. In other<br />

words, reacting to a crisis by<br />

selling shares is often a poor<br />

decision.<br />

The extent of market contagion<br />

relative to the level of<br />

viral contagion is determined<br />

by a combination of investor<br />

sentiment and factual information.<br />

An objective evaluation<br />

of your investment goals will<br />

ensure that your portfolio is<br />

well-positioned to weather any<br />

potential storm.<br />

As has been the theme in<br />

recent years, low interest rates<br />

continue to limit options for<br />

investors.<br />

With further rate cuts being<br />

implemented by Central Banks<br />

to try and curb the impact of<br />

Covid-19, low interest rates<br />

will be the norm for the immediate<br />

future. Whether you are<br />

an existing investor or considering<br />

an investment in the capital<br />

markets for the first time,<br />

get in touch with Forsyth Barr.<br />

Source: Forsyth Barr Focus,<br />

Special Report, February<br />

<strong>2020</strong>.<br />

This column is general in nature<br />

and is not personalised investment<br />

advice. This column<br />

has been prepared in good<br />

faith based on information obtained<br />

from sources believed<br />

to be reliable and accurate.<br />

Disclosure Statements for Forsyth<br />

Barr Authorised Financial<br />

Advisers are available on<br />

request and free of charge.<br />

Making sense<br />

of COVID-19<br />

Committed to supporting<br />

our community and clients<br />

during this challenging<br />

and uncertain time.<br />

WAVE25599<br />

Young Read Woudberg Limited<br />

13 McLean Street, Tauranga 3110<br />

12A Oxford Street, Te Puke 3119<br />

P 07 578 0069 E accountants@yrw.co.nz<br />

W www.yrw.co.nz

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