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SEPTEMBER 1, <strong>2020</strong><br />
Decision on grades leaves UK varsities in the lurch<br />
Catherine Carroll-Meehan<br />
The UK government has<br />
performed a U-turn on A<br />
level exam grades, awarding<br />
students in England the<br />
marks given by teacher assessment<br />
where they are higher than the<br />
moderated grades adjusted by what<br />
the government now admits was a<br />
flawed algorithm.<br />
While this is a source of relief for<br />
many students, it leaves many universities<br />
facing more uncertainty<br />
about student numbers and their<br />
financial future, with ramifications<br />
that may last for years.<br />
On the morning of Thursday,<br />
August 13, many students, in many<br />
cases from disadvantaged backgrounds,<br />
woke up to find results<br />
that did not reflect their mock<br />
exam results or grades predicted by<br />
their teachers.<br />
Students disadvantaged<br />
The algorithm developed by<br />
Ofqual to prevent grade inflation as<br />
a result of teacher-awarded marks<br />
resulted in nearly 40% of marks<br />
being lowered. For some students,<br />
this meant that they had failed to<br />
meet the entry requirements for<br />
their preferred university course.<br />
As soon as the A level results<br />
were out, universities opened<br />
phone lines for the clearing<br />
process, as they do every year,<br />
offering remaining places on under-subscribed<br />
courses to students<br />
who missed out due to lower than<br />
expected grades.<br />
Thousands of disappointed students<br />
began to contact universities,<br />
hoping to salvage their dreams<br />
of higher education. Universities<br />
responded to students’ clearing ap-<br />
Altered results may mean students will look to attend their first-choice<br />
university. SpeedKingz (Shutterstock)<br />
plications by looking at individual<br />
profiles, awarded marks, predicted<br />
grades and personal statements to<br />
make a judgement about offers.<br />
Universities are keen to make<br />
offers to students that match their<br />
aspirations, as well as using their<br />
academic achievements as a guide<br />
for engagement and success with<br />
their studies.<br />
The Scotland Example<br />
Then, on Monday, August 17, after<br />
a weekend of pressure, Education<br />
Secretary Gavin Williamson<br />
announced that England would<br />
follow the example of Scotland and<br />
award grades based on teacher<br />
assessment. Northern Ireland and<br />
Wales also made the same move on<br />
August 17.<br />
But the university places that<br />
were decided in the five days before<br />
this reverse, when the government<br />
declared that there would be no<br />
U-turn in England, have now been<br />
thrown into doubt.<br />
Challenges for universities<br />
Universities are already suffering<br />
the effects of the coronavirus<br />
pandemic.<br />
Across the higher education<br />
sector, universities have been<br />
bracing for the expected reduction<br />
of international students.<br />
An over-reliance on international<br />
students to balance budgets has left<br />
some gaping holes.<br />
In the past six months, there have<br />
been warnings that the financial<br />
viability of some universities is at<br />
risk. Some institutions have taken<br />
extreme measures, such as largescale<br />
redundancies, to avoid going<br />
bankrupt.<br />
‘Demographic Dip’<br />
At the same time, the sector in the<br />
UK was preparing itself for the lowest<br />
point of what is known as the<br />
“demographic dip.” The population<br />
of 18 year-olds has been decreasing<br />
since 2017 and <strong>2020</strong> is predicted as<br />
the lowest point before a predicted<br />
Clearing allows students another route into university. BonNontawat<br />
(Shutterstock)<br />
increase in 2021 and again in 2022.<br />
The population of 18 year-olds is<br />
expected to steadily increase until<br />
2030.<br />
Now, the U-turn on A level<br />
results has created unprecedented<br />
uncertainty.<br />
The late decision, five days into<br />
the clearing process, has meant<br />
that offers that were confirmed<br />
following results day may now be<br />
overturned.<br />
Disappointed students accepted<br />
places, selected accommodation<br />
and had begun to adjust to their<br />
choice at universities that may not<br />
have been their first preference.<br />
They now have the option to revisit<br />
their first choice.<br />
The dilemma<br />
Universities do not know what<br />
impact this will have. Many top-tier<br />
universities are fully subscribed<br />
and students are being told that<br />
their offer will be honoured, but not<br />
until 2021. This presents a challenge<br />
Educationlink<br />
09<br />
to offer holders: whether to accept<br />
a place at an institution that wasn’t<br />
their first choice, so that they can<br />
start university now, or wait 12<br />
months with limited employment<br />
prospects and no gap-year travel.<br />
Some students may even elect to<br />
take exams in the autumn rather<br />
than taking the teacher-assessed<br />
grades they have been given, looking<br />
to win entry to their first-choice<br />
university in 2021.<br />
Winners and losers<br />
There will be some winners and<br />
losers in the A level debacle. The<br />
Department of Education has opted<br />
to remove student number caps,<br />
introduced by the government<br />
during the coronavirus pandemic<br />
to stop universities making unconditional<br />
offers and to ensure a fair<br />
distribution of students across the<br />
sector.<br />
This means that some universities<br />
will be able to over-recruit, and<br />
others will lose students to more<br />
“prestigious” institutions. This may<br />
result in smaller student cohorts at<br />
some universities and non-viable<br />
numbers for some courses, putting<br />
jobs at risk.<br />
For some universities this may be<br />
catastrophic. The UK government<br />
needs to ensure that universities<br />
are funded appropriately at this<br />
time to ensure their continued<br />
financial viability – especially for<br />
those in towns and cities where the<br />
presence of a university is a way to<br />
support social mobility and aspiration<br />
for the whole community.<br />
Catherine Carroll-Meehan is Head of<br />
School of Education and Sociology (ED-<br />
SOC) at the University of Portsmouth,<br />
Hampshire, England. The above article<br />
and pictures have been published under<br />
Creative Commons Licence.<br />
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