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SEPTEMBER 1, <strong>2020</strong><br />

Decision on grades leaves UK varsities in the lurch<br />

Catherine Carroll-Meehan<br />

The UK government has<br />

performed a U-turn on A<br />

level exam grades, awarding<br />

students in England the<br />

marks given by teacher assessment<br />

where they are higher than the<br />

moderated grades adjusted by what<br />

the government now admits was a<br />

flawed algorithm.<br />

While this is a source of relief for<br />

many students, it leaves many universities<br />

facing more uncertainty<br />

about student numbers and their<br />

financial future, with ramifications<br />

that may last for years.<br />

On the morning of Thursday,<br />

August 13, many students, in many<br />

cases from disadvantaged backgrounds,<br />

woke up to find results<br />

that did not reflect their mock<br />

exam results or grades predicted by<br />

their teachers.<br />

Students disadvantaged<br />

The algorithm developed by<br />

Ofqual to prevent grade inflation as<br />

a result of teacher-awarded marks<br />

resulted in nearly 40% of marks<br />

being lowered. For some students,<br />

this meant that they had failed to<br />

meet the entry requirements for<br />

their preferred university course.<br />

As soon as the A level results<br />

were out, universities opened<br />

phone lines for the clearing<br />

process, as they do every year,<br />

offering remaining places on under-subscribed<br />

courses to students<br />

who missed out due to lower than<br />

expected grades.<br />

Thousands of disappointed students<br />

began to contact universities,<br />

hoping to salvage their dreams<br />

of higher education. Universities<br />

responded to students’ clearing ap-<br />

Altered results may mean students will look to attend their first-choice<br />

university. SpeedKingz (Shutterstock)<br />

plications by looking at individual<br />

profiles, awarded marks, predicted<br />

grades and personal statements to<br />

make a judgement about offers.<br />

Universities are keen to make<br />

offers to students that match their<br />

aspirations, as well as using their<br />

academic achievements as a guide<br />

for engagement and success with<br />

their studies.<br />

The Scotland Example<br />

Then, on Monday, August 17, after<br />

a weekend of pressure, Education<br />

Secretary Gavin Williamson<br />

announced that England would<br />

follow the example of Scotland and<br />

award grades based on teacher<br />

assessment. Northern Ireland and<br />

Wales also made the same move on<br />

August 17.<br />

But the university places that<br />

were decided in the five days before<br />

this reverse, when the government<br />

declared that there would be no<br />

U-turn in England, have now been<br />

thrown into doubt.<br />

Challenges for universities<br />

Universities are already suffering<br />

the effects of the coronavirus<br />

pandemic.<br />

Across the higher education<br />

sector, universities have been<br />

bracing for the expected reduction<br />

of international students.<br />

An over-reliance on international<br />

students to balance budgets has left<br />

some gaping holes.<br />

In the past six months, there have<br />

been warnings that the financial<br />

viability of some universities is at<br />

risk. Some institutions have taken<br />

extreme measures, such as largescale<br />

redundancies, to avoid going<br />

bankrupt.<br />

‘Demographic Dip’<br />

At the same time, the sector in the<br />

UK was preparing itself for the lowest<br />

point of what is known as the<br />

“demographic dip.” The population<br />

of 18 year-olds has been decreasing<br />

since 2017 and <strong>2020</strong> is predicted as<br />

the lowest point before a predicted<br />

Clearing allows students another route into university. BonNontawat<br />

(Shutterstock)<br />

increase in 2021 and again in 2022.<br />

The population of 18 year-olds is<br />

expected to steadily increase until<br />

2030.<br />

Now, the U-turn on A level<br />

results has created unprecedented<br />

uncertainty.<br />

The late decision, five days into<br />

the clearing process, has meant<br />

that offers that were confirmed<br />

following results day may now be<br />

overturned.<br />

Disappointed students accepted<br />

places, selected accommodation<br />

and had begun to adjust to their<br />

choice at universities that may not<br />

have been their first preference.<br />

They now have the option to revisit<br />

their first choice.<br />

The dilemma<br />

Universities do not know what<br />

impact this will have. Many top-tier<br />

universities are fully subscribed<br />

and students are being told that<br />

their offer will be honoured, but not<br />

until 2021. This presents a challenge<br />

Educationlink<br />

09<br />

to offer holders: whether to accept<br />

a place at an institution that wasn’t<br />

their first choice, so that they can<br />

start university now, or wait 12<br />

months with limited employment<br />

prospects and no gap-year travel.<br />

Some students may even elect to<br />

take exams in the autumn rather<br />

than taking the teacher-assessed<br />

grades they have been given, looking<br />

to win entry to their first-choice<br />

university in 2021.<br />

Winners and losers<br />

There will be some winners and<br />

losers in the A level debacle. The<br />

Department of Education has opted<br />

to remove student number caps,<br />

introduced by the government<br />

during the coronavirus pandemic<br />

to stop universities making unconditional<br />

offers and to ensure a fair<br />

distribution of students across the<br />

sector.<br />

This means that some universities<br />

will be able to over-recruit, and<br />

others will lose students to more<br />

“prestigious” institutions. This may<br />

result in smaller student cohorts at<br />

some universities and non-viable<br />

numbers for some courses, putting<br />

jobs at risk.<br />

For some universities this may be<br />

catastrophic. The UK government<br />

needs to ensure that universities<br />

are funded appropriately at this<br />

time to ensure their continued<br />

financial viability – especially for<br />

those in towns and cities where the<br />

presence of a university is a way to<br />

support social mobility and aspiration<br />

for the whole community.<br />

Catherine Carroll-Meehan is Head of<br />

School of Education and Sociology (ED-<br />

SOC) at the University of Portsmouth,<br />

Hampshire, England. The above article<br />

and pictures have been published under<br />

Creative Commons Licence.<br />

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