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PAGE 10—SUNDAY VANGUARD, NOVEMBER 29, 2020 Recession ‘ll trigger withdrawals of FDIs, FPIs — Sanni •Urges govt to open borders for regional trade By Nkiruka Nnorom Group CEO, Emerging Africa Capital Group, Mrs. Tonyi Sanni, speaks on Nigeria’s entry into the second recession in five years and the way forward.. COVID-19 pandemic and even #EndSARS protest have been blamed for the recent recession, but beyond these two things, what other mistakes do you think led the nation into this second recession? Although the novel virus and EndSars protest have been blamed in some quarters for Nigeria’s current economic situation, from an analytic point of view, our challenges began long before the #EndSars protest. Recall that Nigeria had recorded a significant decline in GDP (- 6.1%) even before the protest started in October. Africa’s biggest economy slid into recession due to the reduction in revenues following the crash in oil prices and other negative impacts of the virus in the country. For example, the lockdown brought about reduced consumption and production, disruptions in supply chains as producers could not produce during the period. Again, increased pressure on the naira due to falling reserves also affected our currency price whilst protracted border closure contributed to the rise in inflation rate and reduced purchasing power for household economies. With complete shutdown in business activities as curtailment for the COVID-19, do you think Nigeria could have escaped this considering? It is unrealistic to compare a fragile economy like Nigeria which had only just come out of a recession four years ago and has other structural challenges such as commodity dependence and import dependence to developed economies with more established financial systems. There are, however, steps we could have taken to ease the pressure on the populace including more impactful stimulus and palliative measures. However, we have the challenge of low fiscal headroom. In what ways do you think the situation will affect the ordinary Nigerian and the entire nation? The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports are historical in the sense that they are recorded in the period of reference. So, it reflects the actual effect of the nation’s economic stance. The actual confirmation of the recession may further affect Nigerians by triggering further withdrawal of already reduced Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) and Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs) into our economy and could discourage domestic investment in the short term. Inflation is on the rise, foreign •Sanni reserves are dropping and the manufacturing sector is shrinking, how can the government encourage production and exports to earn foreign exchange and boost the economy? Government can encourage production by improving the security environment for farmers to boost the agriculture sector. Second, government can also improve access to finance for manufacturers, re-open the borders to encourage regional trade and also manage our currency transparently and realistically. The federal government has said that Nigeria will get out of the recession in first quarter 2021, do you think we have the right monetary and fiscal policies to navigate out of this so soon? I believe this projection is hinged significantly on expectations of the availability of Covid-19 vaccine in major economies by Q1 which is expected to trigger increased demand for oil and correspondingly the recovery of our oil revenue dependent economy. Is government getting it right in the area of diversification? We must not only diversify our income source beyond crude oil sales revenue to other exports of agricultural products and solid minerals, we must also drive the process of conversion of primary produce to finished products. Our policies must encourage investment in production and in job-creating ventures. Security, political stability, rule of law and a transparent judicial system and financial inclusion are equally essential to our economic recovery and growth. What is the way forward? Political stability, good governance, transparency and elimination of corruption, fiscal prudence and responsibility and continuous building of trust of both domestic and international investors are the way forward. We also need the consistent implementation of balanced, even-handed, and consistent policies that create a conducive environment for investment. Property rights must be protected and so must human rights. COMMON MAN: How this recession will affect you Continued from page 7 thing to hell is here. For millions of our people, especially rural subsistence farmers, hell is definitely here. Hell is here, not only because COVID-19 might trigger another lockdown, but because criminals – herdsmen, kidnappers, cattle rustlers and bandits – have now shut down a significant percentage of Nigeria’s farmlands. Zamfara, Kaduna, Niger, Katsina, Sokoto and Borno states together accounted for about 30 to 35 per cent of our annual food production. Today, even two battalions of soldiers cannot guarantee the safety of farmers and their harvests in Borno State where the governor had escaped two assassination attempts. In Zamfara and Katsina states, the governors openly announce their negotiations with bandits in order for farmers to be allowed to work in peace. Invariably, the armed hoodlums break their promises and still attack farmers. Recent kidnap of senior police officers, on their way to Gusau, at the border of Katsina and Zamfara states, revealed what ordinary people suffer on those routes. The atrocities committed daily on the Abuja-Suleija-Kaduna highway only tell some of the story of food high-jacking by bandits in Kaduna and Niger States. Going to farm in many parts of the North has become a suicide mission; none but the bravest and most desperate now attempts it anymore. Chief Olu Falae, former Secretary to the Federal Government, former Minister of Finance, serves proxy for all farmers in the South besieged by suspected herdsmen. Herdsmen had been visiting Falae’s part of the South from time immemorial without creating havoc. Change came in 2015 when suspected herdsmen openly dropped their shepherd’s staffs and picked up AK-47s. Falae was kidnapped and ransom was paid and nobody was apprehended for it. A few days before I started to write this special report, suspected herdsmen devastated parts of Falae’s farm once again. If Falae had depended exclusively on farming for his livelihood, herdsmen would have forced him to stop farming as hundreds of thousands had done in the South. When criminal herdsmen went on the rampage, it never occurred to the powersthat-be that widespread famine would result. Large scale famine is now a reality with which government must now deal with. It will remain with us for a while because it is easier to destroy than to build. Millions of Nigerians have been forced to leave farms they have taken years to cultivate and turn into food machines for all of us. The devastation of farms and the impoverishment of millions of farmers have contributed in large measure to the current recession. As aggregate personal income has plummeted with the recession, demand for meat has also dropped sharply. Shortly after receiving call from the Sunday Editor to write this article, Head Butchers in seven Lagos markets were contacted to ask about demand for beef, goat and ram meats. The result was startling. On the average, there has been about 25 per cent drop in cows, goats and rams slaughtered and sold. A stop at the cattle market – Kara – revealed that there is a strong correlation between what the butchers reported and the reduction in cattle sold. Lagos cattle dealers are now sending back cattle. The tragedy has come full circle. Unfortunately, reduced demand is not the only problem facing herdsmen. Some of the cattle rustlers carrying off their animals were once farmers whose farms were devastated by suspected herdsmen. Information reaching us indicates that some displaced farmers are now imposing a sort of rural jungle justice – suspected herdsmen destroy farms; farmers seize their cattle in retaliation. Paradoxically, the cattle rustlers have discovered that it is more profitable to rustle cattle than to farm. Few of them will return to farming until government finds a way to restore security to rural areas. Agriculture, which was always the first sector to lead economic recovery after a recession, might not play that role now. The sector is in bad shape. Consequently, food prices will continue to rise. Manufacturing mauled “Consumption is the sole purpose of production.” This is an axiom in economics which pertains more to manufacturing than any other sector. Despite its importance, manufacturing will be touched only briefly in this write up. The situation here is not different from that in agriculture. Warehouses are full of finished products – unsold; and selling slowly. The demand for manufactured goods naturally lags behind request for food. With many Nigerians struggling to feed; manufactured goods are not top priority now. Hospitality and Entertainment This sector was simply wiped out during the lockdown. Many of the investors might never recover. And just as some people were looking towards the Yuletide to, at least, reopen shop, another lockdown is threatened. Millions of Nigerians have lost their jobs from the first lockdown. Another one will dash all hopes of getting re-engaged any time soon. Ali Baba and comedians will have to wait. Remittances reduced Close to twelve per cent of foreign exchange coming into Nigeria is from legal and illegal remittances. The foreign exchange coming through that source has helped to moderate domestic exchange rates. Global COVID-19 and universal lockdown had dealt a mortal blow to remittances. Nigerians abroad who were just barely surviving had little left to send home. Round two of global lockdown means that Nigerian recipients of money from abroad are in for a tough time in the early months of 2021 at least. IMMEDIATE FUTURE IS BLEAK “There are no desperate situations; only desperate men” - Joseph Goebbels, 1897- 1945, VBQ p 38. Worldwide government officials are desperate as this year’s global recession appears likely to continue till at least the first half of next year. Aggregate demand for crude will remain low; so will the average price. Nigeria lacks any other exportable commodity which will provide the revenue we need to achieve the targets set out in the 2021 budget – which is already demolished even before the year starts. Try as the Central Bank might, it is going to be difficult to keep exchange rates from deteriorating in 2021. Galloping inflation will follow and a greater percentage of the national revenue will go into debt-servicing. SEVEN IMPERATIVES TO GET NIGERIA’S ECONOMY GROWING “Well my friend, get me out of danger. You can make your fine speech afterwards” - Jean De La Fontaine, 1621-1695, VBQ p 68. As a friend of Nigeria, I feel duty bound to obey the French writer by offering some (only some) of the ideas that will help us out of crisis. Most economic “miracles” in history have hinged on the countries involved selecting and removing certain obstacles to progress. Each was unique and cannot be totally duplicated elsewhere. To me, Nigeria will progress rapidly if: •Government checks the activities of herdsmen, bandits and kidnappers of farmers. Without this the exodus from farms will continue. •Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, has made credit facilities available for expansion of agriculture. But, farmers are not able to access the funds because there is a bottle neck which must be removed. •Government should concession everything that can possibly be. •Federal and state governments should consider and introduce toll gates. Toll is a user’s surcharge. If you don’t use, you don’t pay. Non-users should not be subsidising users. •Downsize governments; there are too many ministries and agencies. •Federal and state governments should aim at cost recovery for services provided; while making special allowance for the aged – 70+ • EVERY LOAN TAKEN MUST BE FOR A SPECIFIC PROJECT WHICH WILL REPAY THE LOAN WITH INTEREST. NO MORE LOANS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO FUND CONSUMPTION.
Fellow Nigerians, jawjaw is better than warwar “War is only a cowardly escape from the problems of peace” - Thomas Mann, 1875- 1955, VANGUARD BOOK OF MQUOTATIONS, p 267. ikhail Gorbachev, born in 1931, of mixed Russian and Ukrainian parents, was the last President of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, USSR, the Communist bloc forcefully created by Russia after World War II as a rival to the power of the United States. But, by 1991, the Union had passed into history as each of the nations brought under the USSR umbrella went their separate ways – along ethnic lines based on language. The USSR military was powerless to prevent the break-up of the country because the forces themselves were sharply divided along ethnic lines. Today 15 different countries exist in the same geographical space occupied by only one until 1991. There is a lesson for all Nigerian leaders as they gradually and inadvertently push our country to the brink of blow-up and break-up similar to that of the USSR. As an incurable optimist who believes that we can still renegotiate our collective existence as one Nigeria, I must confess my increasing alarm concerning the slide towards the brink of national disaster. Indeed, this will Email:biolasobowale@yahoo.com Phone Number: 08055069026 Twitter:@DrDeleSobowale Instagram:delesobowalefranklyspeaking Website: www.delesobowale.com constitute the Mother of all Disasters to befall Nigeria in our own life time and it will usher in a period of instability which will overwhelm all of the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS – as well as other African countries. We urgently need to find our way back to peace; before the horrors of an endless civil conflict overtakes us. Then, peace will be more difficult to achieve – if it is ever attained. The break-up of India into India and Pakistan and the perpetual conflict between the two countries should caution us. “In times of victory, prophets are unnecessary distractions” - Professor Trevor Roper, 1914-2003, VBQ P 204. This article could easily have been titled, PRESIDENT BUHARI, NIGERIA IS ON THE BRINK OF NATIONAL CIVIL WAR, and it would have been appropriate. But, I have chosen instead to approach the matter from the angle of promise – the possibility that disaster can still be averted. The conflicts, which will erupt nationwide, will certainly consume most of us in one form or another. The reader is entitled to ask at this point if I am a prophet. The answers are Yes and No. Permit me to address the No first. Nigeria, today, is inundated with ‘prophets’ – With only a few weeks left to the end of 2020, Nigeria, instead of being among top 20, is now the poverty capital of the world Christians, Muslims and traditional religion adherents. Invariably, the well-advertised ones, unlike the prophets of old, are in business to make money out of their predictions. Almost always their predictions are so vague (“Someone among my listeners will get a new job this month”, “A lady will get married before the year ends”) they constitute nothing more than spiritual 419. And they quickly pass the envelopes for donations or provide bank account numbers to which gullible followers will pay. I don’t belong in that class. The prophets of old never asked for a kobo. Elisha rejected the offer of reward after finishing his task. He, like all true prophets, was specific about his predictions and the consequences that would follow if ignored. Yes, I belong to that class and it will require several articles to remind our readers of the specific warnings given on these pages which have turned out to be true. Three will help before moving on to the substance of today’s article. In 1992, when the Babangida administration initiated VISION 2020; and everybody jumped on the bandwagon of forecasting that Nigeria would become SUNDAY VANGUARD, NOVEMBER 29, 2020, PAGE 11 one of the world’s top 20 economies by 2020, there was one lone voice saying “it won’t happen”. The voice was mine. With only a few weeks left to the end of 2020, Nigeria, instead of being among top 20, is now the Poverty Capital of the World. Nobody else can now repeat what he said about VISION 2020. Early in 1998, shortly after my fourth trip to detention under General Sani Abacha, and when the media was under siege by the regime, I wrote the following in one article in May 1998: “We, the media, shall write the obituary of all those in power today – whether they like it or not.” Abacha died on June 8 of that year. We are still writing the obituaries of those who collaborated with him. The third warning is more recent than others – as recent as 2016 as a matter of fact. In that article, Nigerians were warned about how the Governor of Kaduna State had deliberately ignited unending conflict in the state and had fractured Kaduna along religious and tribal lines as never before in the state’s history. Please read: ‘EL-RUFAI TAKING KADUNA TO ALEPO AND NIGERIA TO SYRIA – 1’ “It makes a great difference by which causes and under what authorities men undertake the wars that must be waged” - Saint Augustine. Foreword It is probably the first time that a column appearing on this page would start with a foreword. There is an urgent reason. It is also probably the first time in Nigerian history that a columnist would be the first to alert all Nigerians to a war, already underway in Kaduna State which might eventually engulf at least the entire North and perhaps all of Nigeria. It is a religious sectarian war that had its origins in the Middle East since the death of Prophet Mohammed (Peace Be Unto Him) and which is at the bottom of a great deal of the blood-letting in Syria and Iraq today. President Buhari has been criticized for his silence on the events in Kaduna since the clash between the army and Shi’ites which claimed thousands of lives. The Head of State has my sympathies, for reasons you will read later. But, his chief handicap lies in the fact that he is a Sunni called upon to take a stand in the conflict between Sunnis and Shi’ites. One elected official who had not been reluctant to act is El-Rufai, the self-righteous, self-adulating Governor of Kaduna State. Last week, he called some reporters and handed them a bundle of partisan sectarian half-truths about the Shi’ites. He had earlier proclaimed the sect banned in Kaduna State. By so doing, El-Rufai had brought to our door steps in Nigeria the main cause of Islamic sectarian wars in Syria and Iraq. The rest of us innocent bystanders will feel the heat of battle.” That article was published in December 2016. Since then, Governor El-Rufai has added ethnic partisanship to the religious conflict engulfing Kaduna State. The once most congenial state capital in the North and the former regional capital is now a hell on earth for its dwellers. The carnage was foretold. Attention has been drawn to the warnings on Kaduna for the obvious reason. Kaduna State is not only central to any effort to achieve peace in the North in particular, it points to the problems Nigeria as a whole will have to restore peaceful co-existence. It is daunting task but not an impossible undertaking if we want to continue as a united country. I remain an optimist that we can avert disaster. But, the windows of opportunities are closing gradually. What happened to the USSR under Gorbachev becomes relevant as a lesson for us which we ignore at our own peril under Buhari. Here is why. ‘IBB, Abdulsalami Declare Support for North-Central People’s Forum’ - DAILY INDEPENDENT, November 19, 2020, P 2. Unlike most Nigerians, I read several newspapers every day. Until that report by DAILY INDEPENDENT was published, nobody could have convinced me that former Heads of State – Babangida and Abubakar – would ever enlist in any sectional or regional forum. In fact, in the concluding part of my article two weeks ago – ‘FACED WITH IMMINENT DISASTER, WHERE ARE THE NIGERIAN LEADERS’ – the two former military leaders had been suggested along with some others who might help Buhari to rescue us. I laboured under the impression that they have both successfully warded off requests to join the North Central of Middle Belt crusade for fairness. The DAILY INDEPENDENT report and the statement credited to IBB in particular broke my heart as it revealed how close we are to the brink of disaster. Here is part of what he said: “I have always wondered when I hear groups from the North-West, North-East, South-South and South-West, and I kept wondering where we in the North-Central belong…” Babangida was speaking to a delegation from the North- Central People’s Forum led by Lt General (rtd) Jeremiah Useni. The Forum, which has been busy lately, is the indisputable proof that the North has become openly divided. Get ready to be free Congratulations! We made it to the last Sunday in November, Glory be to God. Why is it necessary to mention this? It’s simply because in a few days, we’ll be counting down to Christmas. As we begin to count down to the yuletide season, may the Lord give us gifts that He alone can give us. Brethren, at this time, we must thank God. It doesn’t matter what one is passing through, we have to thank God for life. Why? We are not alive because we are righteous. Lamentation 3 vs. 22&23 ( NIV) reminds us : “ Because of the LORD’S great love we are not consumed, for his compassions never fail. They are new every morning; great is your faithfulness”. You know the rest either as a song or a prayer point. In our previous edition, we mentioned, prayer, praise and patience as three factors that are crucial for anyone desirous of a miracle. In this edition we’ll consider another factor that has more to do with the individual seeking a miracle than with the Lord Almighty. That factor is your “ determination to be set free”. Brethren, you need to ask yourself, do you really want an end to that affliction? Do you desire to sing a new song? Do you really want to testify to a miracle? If the answer is yes. It would reflect in your prayer life. How do I mean? I mean if you have been lackadaisical with prayer, it is time to put in more effort. Review the time you spend praying upwards. Spend more time singing praises to the Lord. Increase your contribution and commitment to the work of God. Above all raise the level of your faith. Let the woman that is called barren begin to see herself as a mother of children particularly while praying. For the single lady, let her see herself settled in her matrimonial home. Brethren, these are steps that you have to take yourself. No Pastor can make you determined to have a break through. You have to show determination to be set free from bondage first, then the Holy Spirit will lead you to the steps to take physically and you can be sure of the intervention of God to put an end to the challenge. Do you know that challenges have been with Man for long but determination to set yourself free is so crucial to your liberty? Let’s consider one or two examples in the Holy Bible. We look at the activities of a King Herod as recorded in Act 12 vs. 1-6. ( KJV) Here King Herod had killed James the brother of John. Then he went on to arrest Peter. Verses 4-6 gives us details of what Herod did with Apostle Peter .” And when he had apprehended him ( Peter), he put him in prison, and delivered him to four quaternions of soldiers to keep him; intending after Easter to bring him forth to the people. Herod planned to kill Peter as he did James because the death of James pleased h people. Peter therefore was kept in prison; but prayer was made without ceasing of the church unto God for him. And when Herod would have brought Determine in your heart that 2020 will not roll away without you receiving your miracle him forth, the same night Peter was sleeping between two soldiers, bound with two chains: and the keepers before the door kept the prison”. Verse 7 of the same chapter tells us : “ And, behold, the angel of the Lord came upon him, and a light shined in the prison: and he smote Peter on the side, and raised him up saying, Arise up quickly. And his chains fell off his hands”. Brethren, from this passage we see the power of prayer how it moved Divine intervention. In the name of Jesus, whatever the enemy has used to hold you down, physically or spiritually, the power of God will set you free in Jesus name. If the church prayed for Peter, you must imagine that Peter too must have prayed earnestly. Why? Peter would not want to be killed like James. Secondly, he couldn’t have enjoyed staying behind bars. Therefore, he too must have prayed. Are you saying that you have no intercessor? You have. Luke 4 vs. 18 ( KJV)Our Lord Jesus said : “ The Spirit of the Lord is upon me, because he hath anointed me to preach the gospel to the poor; he hath sent me to heal the broken hearted, to preach deliverance to the captives, and recovering of sight to the blind, to set at liberty them that are bruised”. Are you broken hearted because of inability to conceive, is yours because medical science has written you off, is it because of series of miscarriages? . Is your challenge related to series of broken relationships? Have your lost the peace in your marriage? Whatever it is, you have an intercessor in the Lord Jesus that is always around to heal the broken hearted. However, you must ask. You must be desirous to be free. Blind Bartimaeus is a good example of someone who was tired of his situation . Mark 10 verse 47 states of the action of blind Bartimaeus. “ And when he heard that it was Jesus of Nazareth, he began to cry out, and say, Jesus , thou son of David, have mercy on me”. His desperate cry got the attention of the Lord Jesus . As you spend quality time in prayer pouring out your heart to the Lord as Hannah did, you will receive the attention of the Lord in Jesus name. Note that there were people around the Lord who felt that the cry of blind Bartimaeus was a distraction to them and to the Lord. Nevertheless, he got the attention of the Lord. Verse 49- 52 tells us how Jesus reacted and the result that blind Bartimaeus got. “ And Jesus stood still, and commanded him to be called. And they call the blind man, saying unto him, Be of good comfort, rise; he calleth thee. And he, casting away his garment, rose, and came to Jesus . And Jesus answered and said unto him, What wilt thou that I should do unto thee? The blind man said unto him, Lord, that I might receive my sight. And Jesus said unto him, Go thy way; thy faith hath made thee whole. And immediately, he received his sight, and followed Jesus in the way”. Brethren, make up your mind to be free from bondage like Hannah, like blind Bartimaeus and the Lord will set you free. You may experience some discomfort while crying unto the Lord, you may even be mocked , just remain focused as you cry unto the Lord that can set you free. Determine in your heart that 2020 will not roll away without you receiving your miracle. Be prepared to sacrifice time and some of the pleasure of life. Spend more time, praying. Fast if your health permits and the merciful Lord will grant your heart’s desires in Jesus name. Whatever you lack today, be assured that Jehovah El- Shaddai is able to give you more than enough.Very soon, you that is being called barren will soon be called mother of twins. Your testimony shall be better than that of Hannah. Only believe and act your faith. It is well in Jesus name.
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