29112020

More documents

Recommendations

Info

PAGE 6—SUNDAY VANGUARD, NOVEMBER 29, 2020 SUSTAINABLE NATIONAL UNITY: Imperative of restructuring, true federalism By Adelegan Adegbola Awolowo paid minimum wage of five shillings in the West but in the East, they paid three shillings and six pence, while they paid three shillings in the North People have the right to self-determination. And by the virtue of that, they freely determine their political and economic status economic, social and culture development. It has become an axiom that, in a democracy, people get the kind of government they deserve. There can be no peace or security in Nigeria without political freedom. Nigeria is presently operated on wrong principles. As long as one group dominates others, as long as one group oppresses others, there would be strife and conflict. Man is selfish and the ideals of selfish interest and domination are perpetrated by man against man. Therefore, to live together in peace, there must be an acceptable agreement for people to follow. Hence it is imperative to restructure the country to enable her move forward. Humanity cannot stand on one leg. All forms of domination, exploitation of one section over another must be abolished. And new productive relations must be established. Our effectiveness is predicated upon certain inviolate principles of natural laws in the human dimension that are just as real as unchanging as laws such as gravity is in the physical dimension. These principles are woven into fabric of every civilized society and constitute the roots of every family and the country that endured and prospered. Fundamental moral principles are the laws of God. Authority Principles are not invented by man or any society; they are the laws of the universe that pertain to human relationships and human organizations. Federalism is the distribution of power in an organization (as a government) between a central authority and the constituent units. Federalism is ensuring “unity through federation”. It allows ethnic groups to live together without jeopardizing each of the groups cultural setting and allowing them to develop at their own pace. The sheer territorial size of Nigeria necessitated the adoption of “federal form of constitution” and hence the division of the country into regions even when the inhabitants were linguistically or ethnically homogeneous. Meanwhile the diversity of the country was a formidable obstacle to unity without a federal constitution. The people controlling the government were of widely different origins, beliefs and interests. All the linguistic groups in Nigeria lived in harmony with one another but linguistic distinctions posed fundamental questions on how to live with one another, sharing natural resources, sharing political power and authorities. Patriotism was not love of the country or nation but loyalty to tribe or commune. The gentry and peasantry hated and feared one another and even the peasants were suspicious of each other. Nigeria should have as many provinces or zones, regions of states as there were linguistics or ethnic groups in the country, and each region should have a legislature and government of its own. There would be a central or national parliament and government on which the various linguistic groups in the country would be represented. Under this arrangement, each ethnic group could develop its own peculiar culture and institutions in accordance with its wishes and the inter-tribal acrimony and jostle for leadership which were rearing their heads would cease. The government of each linguistic group would be led by one of their members and Nigeria would be led by any Nigerian acceptable to all or to the majority of the country. The colonial governments were preoccupied with day-to-day concerns of administration of commercial interests. From their perspective, social change involved the adjustment of conquered people of life under colonial rule. The British, who had not given much thought to the heterogeneous character of Nigeria peoples in formulating their administrative arrangements, had been compelled to divide the Protectorate of Southern Nigeria into two for administrative purposes – because it was becoming more and more enlightened and articulate. In the main, language lay at the root of racial differences: •Buhari be they differences in culture and custom, in philosophy of life and political institutions, in national characteristics and social concept and practices. For example, Obaship and chieftaincy have been established from time immemorial in Yorubaland whereas the northern people had been living their lives as the traditional institution of Emirship permitted. The system is different in the Eastern part of Nigeria where the British had experimented with varying degrees of success and failure with “Warrant Chiefs” Ethnicities and people’s diversities are the cultural pride in Africa. The world itself is an assemblage of numerous ethnic groups of people clustered together on the planet to form a global village for the purpose of human kind. Nigeria’s project is a donation and contribution of numerous of ethnics, different cultures and different peoples lived in around themselves. And later parts of their lives were “forced together by foreign influence and forces simply for their economic gain. The Amalgamation of the North and South of Nigeria without their knowledge, the European just negotiated the destinies of people without the conscience of the people. The arrangement was against the ethos of the people. It was full of awkwardness, tangled, awry to the fundamental social life of the people. Unitary constitution with only one central government would only result in frustration to the more dynamic ethnic groups whereas division of the country into ethnic lines would enable each linguistic group to develop its own peculiar culture and institutions and move at its own pace without being unnecessarily pushed or annoyingly slowed down by others. The assumption that the present standards of common leadership which have been the “bone of contention” have been the basis of Nigeria nationalist activities was grossly misconceived. Nigeria needs a system in which the various linguistic units will federate to form a single nation and that is the way it was when Chief Obafemi Awolowo paid minimum wage of five shillings in the Western Region but in the East, they paid three shillings and six pence, while they paid three shillings in the North. But it is now we are saying everybody must do the same thing. That is not a ‘federation’. When Awolowo wanted to start the minimum wage, they said it was impossible. But he did it and also introduced free education. He did it because he had the leverage within the economy to generate the income and move in accordance with his own priority and at his own preferred pace. Exploitation, domination of man by man has been the social problem of humanity. The fundamental; problem is that of an unjust, distorted federation which has been manipulated to favour one section against the other by the military intervention to the polity of Nigeria. There is no way such an unjust arrangement can endure or generate peace and stability. Therefore change is inevitable. The world has entered a new stage of historical development. Continues on www.vanguardngr.com •Adegbola, FCPA, is Founder and President, Oduduwa Cultural Foundation, and Fellow, Chartered Institute of Local Government and Public Administration of Nigeria.
SUNDAY VANGUARD, NOVEMBER 29, 2020, PAGE 7 COMMON MAN: How this recession will affect you By Dele Sobowale “To know that which before us lies in daily life is the prime wisdom…” -John Milton, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p 275. Nigerians now know the truth. Nigeria is in a recession. The dreadful result was summarized for us this way in PUNCH, November 22, 2020. “The NBS, in its Gross Domestic Product report for Q3, said the GDP, the broad measure of economic prosperity, fell by 3.62 per cent in the three months till September…For the first time in more than three years, the Nigerian economy shrank in Q2 by 6.10 per cent..” The World Bank (WB) added two bits of information to make the situation more depressing. First, the bank pointed out that this is the worst recession in 36 years. Second, WB followed that up by telling us that per capita income in 2020 and 2021 could fall to 40-year low. For Nigeria, acknowledged world poverty capital, things cannot possibly be worse. It means that we will not soon relinquish the title of poverty capital; we only have our own dismal record to beat. A RECESSION FORETOLD IN MARCH 2020 “For every folly of their [rulers], Nigerians feel the lash” - Horace, 65-8 BC, VBQ p 61. Grim as all these revelations might appear to Nigerians, they represent a tragedy already foretold, as usual by VANGUARD. While the rest of Nigeria was still wondering what would be the repercussions of COVID-19 on our economy, we presciently made the forecast of a recession. Read: “COVID-19 HAS CLOBBERED BUDGET 2020 INTO A COMA ‘Coronavirus: FG Considers Reviewing 2020 Budget’ - DAILY INDEPENDENT, March 5, 2020, p 1. ‘55 Nigerian oil cargo unsold as demand tumbles’ - PUNCH, March 6, 2020, p 23. Shakespeare, 1564-1616, must have had a situation like the one in which Nigeria now finds itself before pronouncing: ‘All things do help the unhappy man to fall.’ President Buhari, during one of his many trips abroad, once described himself as the most unhappy leader. He has a right to claim that title. Nigeria under him became the poverty capital of the world and that is a title that will not be relinquished soon. On four indices included in the Misery Index, MI — children out of school, maternal death, infant mortality and per capita income – Nigeria is ranked first in all of them. Nigeria is also home to two of the world’s five worst terrorist groups: Boko Haram and herdsmen. Although it is the poorest country among the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, and it is only the eighth largest producer, more crude oil is stolen in Nigeria than any other country. Thus, the Federal Government of a nation, which needs every dollar it can get from oil, stands and looks on while a few selfish but powerful crooks consign the rest of Nigeria to prolonged poverty and endless destitution. None of the big oil thieves has been apprehended and prosecuted. Instead of protecting our own most important source of funds, we are contented to make requests for $22 billion loan package. These observations are meant to provide background to what will follow in this article because Nigerians need to understand the disaster that awaits us on account of COVID – 19 and our near total dependence on oil. Perhaps the place to start is what was predicted last year when the 2020 Budget was presented to the National Assembly, NASS. Unfortunately for us, the demand for crude was less than expected from January 1, 2020. It remained low throughout February and, as we move into March, we discover that COVID-19 has rendered Budget 2020 totally untenable. BUDGET OF SELF- DELUSION “The most obstinate illusions are ultimately broken by facts” - Trevor Round two of global lockdown means that Nigerian recipients of money from abroad are in for a tough time Roper, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p 100. “Budget of Continuity was based on a benchmark oil price of $60 per barrel, oil production of 2.3mbpd…government projected a deficit of N1.91tn. The revenue performance is only 58 per cent of the 2019 budget’s target due to the underperformance of both oil and non-oil revenue sources. Specifically oil revenues were below target by 49 per cent as at June 2019" - President Buhari, Budget 2020 presentation to the NASS, October 8, 2019.” That was the 2020 Budget summarized. Below was my own reaction to it. STARTING ON THE WRONG FOOT; STAYING ON THE WRONG TRACK ‘Morning shows the day’ according to an old adage. The disaster of the 2020 Budget actually had its origins in 2015. The first three appointments every modern Head of Government makes in today’s global village are: the Ministers of Defense, Finance and External Affairs. Those are the people other countries appraise most critically. And the appointments are made very quickly after elections are over. Bearing in mind that “a week is a long time in politics” (Harold Wilson, British Prime Minister 1970s), Buhari waiting for five months to make those key appointments had already sent a signal to the global community; and not a good one. To then turn around and hand the economy to people totally unknown in global financial institutions for the five months sent another signal. Mrs. Adeosun might be a good accountant; but, she is not and cannot be an excellent Finance Minister. The results showed very quickly. A recession followed in 2016.” The rest of the analysis of the 2020 Budget went on to predict that it will never be implemented as it is. That was before COVID-19 gatecrashed into our lives and is now going to cause a lot of havoc to the budget of every country on the planet. The first signal of the problems ahead is the turmoil in global oil trade. OPEC is now in disarray. Saudi Arabia, the largest exporter, after failing to get Russia, a non-member to agree to a cut in production and supplies, had unilaterally reduced crude price and is now set to increase output. Those steps spell economic doom for countries like Nigeria which are more heavily dependent on oil. From the evidence available at the moment, the average price of crude oil on the global market is unlikely to exceed $50 per barrel for the next three months unless an emergency meeting of OPEC is held to establish a new quota and production level acceptable to all members. Even then, any agreement by OPEC members will not be binding on nonmembers – who now control a larger percentage of global oil output than OPEC. The cartel has lost the clout which in the past made it possible to dictate global oil prices. While there are several uncertainties, there is one certainty, which cannot be ignored. COVID-19 has devastated Nigeria’s 2020 budget. It was not realistic before COVID-19; it is totally in shreds now. It requires no high intelligence to realize that a budget review is urgently needed. BUHARI APPOINTS BUDGET REVIEW ADVISERS For once President Buhari did not waste time in approving a budget review committee of advisers. That is a step in the right direction. Other steps must necessarily follow – and quickly too because time is one of the variables they must bring into consideration. In that connection the most important matters to be decided include the following: •Bench mark crude price to adopt in the recommendations for the budget review •Time to start operating the new budget. •The impact on the Federal and State Governments •How to handle the inevitable recession In the second part of this series, I will elaborate on the four issues listed above. But permit me to be the bearer of bad news: ANOTHER RECESSION IS LOOMING ON THE NIGERIAN ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT.” That was published in the second week of March – long before the FG started to address its mind to the possibility of a recession. If the Federal Government had reached out for information, it would have been able to reduce the decline in GDP growth considerably. Second quarter might not have slumped to -6.10 per cent and Q3 not as bad as -3.62. WHERE WE STAND NOW “Hell hath no limits; nor is it circumscribed in one self place, for where we are is hell…” - Christopher Marlowe, 1564-1594, VBQ p 89. Food insecurity and famine in 2021 now certain. For Nigerians living today, the closest Continues on page 10
Page 1 and 2: C M Y K
Page 3 and 4: PAGE 3—SUNDAY VANGUARD, NOVEMBER
Page 5: SUNDAY VANGUARD, NOVEMBER 29, 2020,
Page 9 and 10: SUNDAY VANGUARD, NOVEMBER 29, 2020,
Page 11 and 12: Fellow Nigerians, jawjaw is better
Page 15 and 16: C M Y SUNDAY Vanguard, NOVEMBER 29,
Page 23 and 24: Maradona’s “Hand Of God” shir

29112020

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?